Donation drive

This site ordinarily runs donation drive posts every two months, but the occasion of tomorrow’s Victorian state election demands a special edition. In particular, you may feel a contribution is in order due to the effort and, to a not completely trivial extent, expense involved in publishing my live results system, about which you can read more in the post below. Donations can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and at the bottom of each post.

Donation drive

Every two months, this site sends out an appeal for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of each post. Things I’ve done to deserve it lately include publishing one of the site’s famous election guides, for the looming Victorian state election on November 26. Naturally the site will be working at a high pitch leading up to this event, which should hopefully include publication of live results on the night (see my federal election results display for an idea of how that will look).

While we’re at the top of the page, note that three new posts have newly added to the blog, including:

• A review of last night’s Newspoll, including an effort to put its budget response numbers in historic context;

• A 1500-word epic on latest developments ahead of the New South Wales election in March;

• A post from regular guest Adrian Beaumont on today’s crucial presidential run-off election in Brazil.

Italian election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s Italian election, which the far-right is likely to win. Also: Bolsonaro still likely to lose in Brazil’s elections.

Live Commentary

7am Tuesday The right coalition won 237 of the 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the left coalition 85, the Five Stars 52, centrists 21 and others five. In the Senate, the right coalition won 115 of the 200 seats, the left coalition 44, the Five Stars 28, centrists nine and others four. That gives the right coalition 59% of seats in the Chamber and 57.5% in the Senate.

Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be the first female Italian PM and the first far-right leader since Mussolini. While the Brothers will easily be the biggest party within the right coalition, they will depend on both the League and Forza Italia on confidence and legislative motions.

8:17pm As counting finishes in the FPTP seats, they’re being officially awarded to the winner. As the right is winning FPTP seats massively, they’re winning a big majority of seats awarded so far. The proportional seats won’t favour the right as much, but they’ll still win about 60% of seats in both houses. There’s still 0.4% left to count before we get final results.

1:58pm With over 90% reporting for the Senate, the right coalition has 44.2%, the left coalition 26.4%, the Five Stars 15.2% and the centrists 7.8%. Percentages are similar in the Chamber with 84% reporting.

11:37am At the 2018 election, the Five Stars won 32.2% in the Senate, the far-right League 17.6% and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy just 4.3%. Currently the Brothers are winning 26.5% in the Senate, the League 8.9% and Five Stars 15.0%.

10:56am With 51% counted in the Senate, the right leads by 43.6-27.4, with 14.8% Five Stars and 7.9% centrists. The Chamber count is well behind at 27%. The right is winning a landslide in the FPTP seats.

9:15am With 11% of the Senate vote counted, the right leads the left by 44-28 with 14% for the Five Star Movement and 8% centrists.

8:25am A Senate projection is that the right will win by 43% to 25% over the left with 17% for the Five Star Movement and 8% a centrist alliance. This would be an easy win for the right.

7:52am The Guardian’s live results looks good for following the results as they come in, though so far there’s been little vote counting.

7:11am Monday: The first Italian exit poll gives the right alliance 42%, the left alliance 28%, the Five Star Movement 16% and a centrist alliance 7%. This would be a majority for the right, but not a large one.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Italian election is today, with polls closing at 7am Monday AEST (11pm Sunday in Italy). All of both the Italian parliament’s houses will be up for election: 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 in the Senate. Governments need the confidence of both houses. First past the post (FPTP) will be used to elect 37% of both houses, with the remainder allocated by proportional representation.

Unfortunately, Italy imposes a 15-day blackout on polls before an election, so the last polls were released on September 9. In these final polls, the right coalition was in the mid to high 40s, the left coalition mostly in the high 20s, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 12-15% and a centrist alliance at 5-8%. I dislike this blackout policy as we can’t know how accurate the polls are if they can’t poll in the final week.

The right coalition is composed of the far-right Brothers of Italy, far-right League, conservative Forza Italia and a small party, while the left coalition includes the centre-left Democrats and three small parties. The Brothers and League will win the large majority of seats within any right coalition.

Unless there’s a large swing back to the left during the 15-day poll blackout, the 37% of overall seats that are elected by FPTP will give the right coalition a clear overall majority in both houses. Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers, is likely to be Italy’s next PM. If she wins, Meloni would be Italy’s first female PM and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.

The Guardian on Thursday had an article on how an Italian town that was once run by Communists is likely to vote for the far-right today. This relates to my theme that whites without a university education are increasingly voting for the right.

Brazilian presidential elections: October 2 and 30 (if necessary)

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is next Sunday. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

The last five Brazilian polls have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by seven to 14 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula an eight to 17 point lead.

Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the mid 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 5-10%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, Lula would be in the high 40s and close to the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.

There is another left-wing candidate (Gomes) who has 6-7%. Lula may be able to squeeze Gomes’ voters enough to reach a first round majority. The campaign has been ugly with violent incidents, so there is an incentive to end it next week rather than drag it out for another four weeks.

As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections next Sunday. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by FPTP. Many parties are currently represented.

Donation drive

Every two months, this site sends out an appeal for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of each post. It’s been a particularly lean month on this score, so if you’re one of those who throws in a few bob intermittently, now would be a particularly welcome time for it. The level of behind-the-scenes activity is starting to crank up as the November 26 Victorian state election looms into view, to be followed not so long after by the New South Wales election on March 25, so continue watching this space for the site’s famous seat-by-seat election guides and live results features.

Donation drive

Every two months, this site sends out an appeal to its readers for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. This is usually accompanied with a spiel about how especially deserving I am at this particular point in time. On this occasion I need only point to the immense amount of work I’ve been putting in of late, having composed 32 posts in the 40 days since the federal election, very few of which simply involved rattling off poll numbers. While I probably won’t keep up exactly that level of productivity forever, it does reflect a determination going forwards to maintain a steady flow of substantive posts with issue-specific discussion threads.

Even amidst the post-election poll drought, Australian politics should provide no shortage of material in the coming months, with two or maybe even three state by-elections in the offing, and what promises to be one of the most interesting state elections in recent history in Victoria come November. A by-election for the South Australian seat of Bragg will be held this Saturday, allowing another workout for my now finely tuned live results facility (last seen in action a fortnight ago at Queensland’s Callide by-election, and of course last month at the federal election), which will also be in action at the Victorian election.

Donation drive

At the end of every second month, this site issues a plea to its readers for the donations it needs to keep it going/make it worth my while. On this occasion I’ve held back a few weeks to strike while the iron is at its very hottest. Regular readers would be aware that I’ve been working hard for money throughout the campaign, with extensive daily blog posts to supplement the vast federal election guide that covers the contest for both houses from every imaginable angle, and all-but-instantaneous updating of the famous BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The best is yet to come, however, because on Saturday night and beyond the site will offer a live results facility that I flatter myself will put all its rivals in the shade. All the proof you need of this can be found on the 2019 results page that I’ve been running for testing purposes, and which currently preserves the results as they were at around 10:30pm on that fateful night.

As you can see, it consists of an entry page summarising the current state of the count in all 151 seats, which links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings, and booth results maps with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.

If it’s booth results you’re after – and if you’re at the level of interest required to follow this site, it almost certainly will be – this feature will, I believe, be the only game in town. Unless its changed its practices, the Australian Electoral Commission site doesn’t actually provide booth results on the night, offering no more than tables identifying which booths have reported on the primary vote and two-candidate preferred. Nor do I believe any other media outlet’s results facilities will feature results in such detail, and in the unlikely event that they do they will not be provided in such a user-friendly format.

If you think I’m deserving of more from this than satisfaction at a job well done, donations can be made through the PressPatron “become a supporter” button that appears in the blue bar across the top of the page, and the buttons that appear at the foot of each blog post. If you are having technical problems with the donation facilities, please drop me a line at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com and we can work something out.

Donation drive

Every two months, this site sends out an appeal to its readers for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. When it has its wits about it, it does so a few days before the end of the month to add some juice to payments that are received on a calendar month basis, but lately it (okay, I’ll stop now) has been so busy that I didn’t get round to it, so I could be singing for my supper at some point over the next few weeks.

The things that have been keeping me busy include some that might inspire you to toss me a few dollars if you’ve found them in any way rewarding: a South Australian election guide that can be viewed here, and live results reporting of the recent New South Wales by-elections. And obviously the site will have a lot to offer over the coming months, ahead of a South Australian election that’s a fortnight away from tomorrow followed not too long after by the big one, which can be anticipated between May 7 and May 21 according to various theories I’ve heard.

Donation drive

At the end of every second month, this site issues a plea to its valued readers for contributions. Three particular reasons you might want to help out on this particular occasion: I have now rounded out my characteristically comprehensive federal election guide with a characteristically comprehensive guide to the election for the Senate; the beloved BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility has now been expanded with state-level federal voting intention trends for the five mainland states; and it’s Christmas/New Year, which is never a brilliant time for site revenue, presumably because interest in politics is subdued and people have other demands on their money.

Donations can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of each post.