Category: General

Time to dig deep for the Poll Bludger’s donation drive, in which the site rattles the tin under the collective nose of its faithful readership at the end of every second month. Those wishing to offer their support, either as a one-off or a recurring monthly contribution, can do so through the “become a supporter” buttons that can be found at the top of the page and the bottom of each post.

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly* undignified grovel for financial support from its valued readership. The ongoing election drought notwithstanding, the site has a busy two months ahead of it thanks to the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, which will be covered here with regular updates and at least some sort of facility on the big night for publishing live results and, if I can think of a plausible way of going about it, projecting results at state level based on the progress totals. If that sounds deserving of a contribution, you can make one through the “become a supporter” buttons that you’ll find at the top of the page and the bottom of each post.

* An ambiguous term that annoyingly lacks a good alternative, but by which I mean once every two months and not twice a month.

Every few months (usually two, but this time it’s been three), the Poll Bludger rattles the proverbial tin can and asks its valued readership for contributions. These can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons that you’ll find at the top of the page and the bottom of each post. Many thanks as always for your support.

On the eve of the Premier State’s big day, now would obviously be an opportune moment to lay on the site’s more-or-less bi-monthly appeal for donations – and while I’m about it, to promote the live results feature that will be in business tomorrow evening and beyond, which will follow the same format as the one for the Victorian election. For election wonks especially, this surpasses all its rivals in offering neatly displayed tables showing results and swings at booth level, together with projections, probability estimates and map displays of booth results updated live at the bottom of each seat page. I should also give one last plug for my state election guide, with its feature-packed pages for all 93 electorates plus overview page and guide to the Legislative Council.

Time for the Poll Bludger’s donation drive, conducted at the end of every second month to squeeze some extra generosity out of the site’s valued and loyal supporters. Donations can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and at the bottom of each post.

This also works as an occasion to update what I’m up to, which at present is all about the New South Wales state election on March 25. The usual comprehensive election guide is at a well advanced and state and should be published in a couple of weeks, and my live results architecture is now running smoothly enough (recent example: Saturday’s supplementary election for Narracan in Victoria) that I can guarantee it will be in service on the big night.

For those of you seeking directions to the routine general discussion thread, it can be found here, just under the post immediately below on the changes in leadership for Western Australia’s Liberals and Nationals.

This site ordinarily runs donation drive posts every two months, but the occasion of tomorrow’s Victorian state election demands a special edition. In particular, you may feel a contribution is in order due to the effort and, to a not completely trivial extent, expense involved in publishing my live results system, about which you can read more in the post below. Donations can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and at the bottom of each post.

Every two months, this site sends out an appeal for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of each post. Things I’ve done to deserve it lately include publishing one of the site’s famous election guides, for the looming Victorian state election on November 26. Naturally the site will be working at a high pitch leading up to this event, which should hopefully include publication of live results on the night (see my federal election results display for an idea of how that will look).

While we’re at the top of the page, note that three new posts have newly added to the blog, including:

• A review of last night’s Newspoll, including an effort to put its budget response numbers in historic context;

• A 1500-word epic on latest developments ahead of the New South Wales election in March;

• A post from regular guest Adrian Beaumont on today’s crucial presidential run-off election in Brazil.

Live Commentary

7am Tuesday The right coalition won 237 of the 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the left coalition 85, the Five Stars 52, centrists 21 and others five. In the Senate, the right coalition won 115 of the 200 seats, the left coalition 44, the Five Stars 28, centrists nine and others four. That gives the right coalition 59% of seats in the Chamber and 57.5% in the Senate.

Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be the first female Italian PM and the first far-right leader since Mussolini. While the Brothers will easily be the biggest party within the right coalition, they will depend on both the League and Forza Italia on confidence and legislative motions.

8:17pm As counting finishes in the FPTP seats, they’re being officially awarded to the winner. As the right is winning FPTP seats massively, they’re winning a big majority of seats awarded so far. The proportional seats won’t favour the right as much, but they’ll still win about 60% of seats in both houses. There’s still 0.4% left to count before we get final results.

1:58pm With over 90% reporting for the Senate, the right coalition has 44.2%, the left coalition 26.4%, the Five Stars 15.2% and the centrists 7.8%. Percentages are similar in the Chamber with 84% reporting.

11:37am At the 2018 election, the Five Stars won 32.2% in the Senate, the far-right League 17.6% and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy just 4.3%. Currently the Brothers are winning 26.5% in the Senate, the League 8.9% and Five Stars 15.0%.

10:56am With 51% counted in the Senate, the right leads by 43.6-27.4, with 14.8% Five Stars and 7.9% centrists. The Chamber count is well behind at 27%. The right is winning a landslide in the FPTP seats.

9:15am With 11% of the Senate vote counted, the right leads the left by 44-28 with 14% for the Five Star Movement and 8% centrists.

8:25am A Senate projection is that the right will win by 43% to 25% over the left with 17% for the Five Star Movement and 8% a centrist alliance. This would be an easy win for the right.

7:52am The Guardian’s live results looks good for following the results as they come in, though so far there’s been little vote counting.

7:11am Monday: The first Italian exit poll gives the right alliance 42%, the left alliance 28%, the Five Star Movement 16% and a centrist alliance 7%. This would be a majority for the right, but not a large one.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Italian election is today, with polls closing at 7am Monday AEST (11pm Sunday in Italy). All of both the Italian parliament’s houses will be up for election: 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 in the Senate. Governments need the confidence of both houses. First past the post (FPTP) will be used to elect 37% of both houses, with the remainder allocated by proportional representation.

Unfortunately, Italy imposes a 15-day blackout on polls before an election, so the last polls were released on September 9. In these final polls, the right coalition was in the mid to high 40s, the left coalition mostly in the high 20s, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 12-15% and a centrist alliance at 5-8%. I dislike this blackout policy as we can’t know how accurate the polls are if they can’t poll in the final week.

The right coalition is composed of the far-right Brothers of Italy, far-right League, conservative Forza Italia and a small party, while the left coalition includes the centre-left Democrats and three small parties. The Brothers and League will win the large majority of seats within any right coalition.

Unless there’s a large swing back to the left during the 15-day poll blackout, the 37% of overall seats that are elected by FPTP will give the right coalition a clear overall majority in both houses. Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers, is likely to be Italy’s next PM. If she wins, Meloni would be Italy’s first female PM and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.

The Guardian on Thursday had an article on how an Italian town that was once run by Communists is likely to vote for the far-right today. This relates to my theme that whites without a university education are increasingly voting for the right.

Brazilian presidential elections: October 2 and 30 (if necessary)

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is next Sunday. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

The last five Brazilian polls have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by seven to 14 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula an eight to 17 point lead.

Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the mid 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 5-10%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, Lula would be in the high 40s and close to the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.

There is another left-wing candidate (Gomes) who has 6-7%. Lula may be able to squeeze Gomes’ voters enough to reach a first round majority. The campaign has been ugly with violent incidents, so there is an incentive to end it next week rather than drag it out for another four weeks.

As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections next Sunday. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by FPTP. Many parties are currently represented.