Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly attempt to keep the donations meter ticking over at a tolerable pace, which you can help with through the “become a supporter” buttons that can be found at the top of the page and the bottom of each post. It also allows a chance to highlight the work I will be doing for your donation dollar, of which there is presently a very great deal:

• The Dunkley by-election will be held on Saturday, and this will hands-down be the best place to follow the action. All the proof you need for this can be obtained from any one of my live results pages, which will (I do believe) exclusively feature booth results, in both tabular and mapped (see at the bottom of the page from the above link) form, together with an equally exclusive running probability estimate of the final result, and less exclusive but still highly instructive swing and result projections. You can also see my guide to the by-election here.

• Another fortnight hence comes the turn of Queensland with its two state by-elections, for which see my guides to Inala and Ipswich West, and local government elections including that for Brisbane City Council, the nation’s biggest municipality with its most partisan elections, for both the lord mayoralty and the 26 council wards. My intention is also to provide a live results facility for each (which on top of anything else will prove a useful test run for the October 26 state election), although getting all that in place may be a bit a scramble.

• No sooner will that have been mopped up than we will have, one week later, the Tasmanian state election, my guide for which can be found here. I ran a live results feature for the state’s 2021 election most successfully, which as with the federal jurisdiction was the only place where booth results were published (including, to be clear, the electoral commission) – I am unsure at this stage if that will be true again.

• On the very same day there will be a by-election for the South Australian seat of Dunstan, being vacated by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall, which will be a very interesting barometer from a state that hasn’t a single opinion poll of any significance since the election in March 2022. There is a guide to the by-election here and there will, you guessed it, be live results on the night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.