Twentieth birthday miscellany (open thread)

The Poll Bludger celebrates 20 years in the only way it knows how: with some poll results and a couple of preselection updates.

Today marks twenty years since the Poll Bludger launched itself on an unsuspecting blogosphere. You may perhaps find in this milestone occasion to reward the site with a birthday present, which will be gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.

Polling news:

• YouGov has intruded on the long-held monopoly of EMRS by publishing a Tasmanian state poll. It points to the existence of a big market for the Jacqui Lambie Network, which is credited with 20% of the vote – enough in the estimation of YouGov’s “likely outcome” to win it seven seats and a decisive position in a lower house that will expand at the next election from 25 seats to 35. The Liberals duly have no chance of recording another majority, being credited with 31% of the vote and a projected eleven seats. Labor are on 27% and ten seats and the Greens 15% and six seats, with independent Kristie Johnston presumed headed for re-election in Clark. It should be noted that when the Jacqui Lambie Network last tried its hand at a state election, in 2018, strong early poll numbers withered during the campaign period and it emerged empty-handed. The poll also assumes it will run in all five divisions, whereas it was reported in November that it will not be running in Clark. The poll was conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850.

• The first federal poll of the year is from Roy Morgan, presumably returning to its weekly schedule after a four-week break over Christmas and New Year. The poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, the third Morgan poll of recent months to have the Coalition leading after two 50.5-49.5 results since October, reversing the result from the last poll in early December. Labor has taken a three-point hit on the primary vote, falling to 29%, with the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation up half to 5%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

Preselection news:

The Age reports Labor’s candidate for the looming Dunkley by-election is likely to be Jodie Belyea, manager of MEGT Foundation, which provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women. Belyea has won the seemingly decisive support of the Socialist Left faction for a preselection that will be formally ratified by the party’s national executive over the coming weeks. The list of Liberal contenders has reportedly been reduced to Nathan Conroy, Donna Hope and Bec Buchanan, with David Burgess withdrawing from contention. The by-election is expected to be held in late February.

The West Australian reports on two prospective nominees for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Curtin, which was lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia, and Tom White, who until recently was Uber’s chief executive for South Korea. It was earlier reported that there was a push in the party for Moran to challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in Curtin’s northern neighbour, Moore, which is also of interest to Vince Connelly, former member for the abolished seat of Stirling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,078 comments on “Twentieth birthday miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 22 of 22
1 21 22
  1. I’m a geography nerd.
    Bidyadanga isn’t even close to being the remotest aboriginal community in WA.
    Barely two hours from Broome.
    Plenty of desert communities in WA way more remote.
    But can’t expect a McGuiness to get facts right.

  2. Ashasays:
    Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 10:06 pm

    Asha the point of my example is Iowa is unrepresentative. Clinton got under 3% in Iowa and ended up winning 2 presidential elections.

    Well, yeah.

    The sky is also blue.


    For a Democrat i suspect the result in Iowa has little meaning. As it is such a non-Democratic party voting demographic. The result in Iowa is probably more important for a Republican as the demographic is much more similar to standard Repug voting state.

  3. Well well well the Feds have rejected another offshore windfarm in Victoria.

    Seems the Environmental vandals state gov of Victoria have been caught out in their global warming zealotry.

    Look for a shit fight between state and feds the battle of Hastings is still on!

    Herald Sun.

  4. Pied Piper. @ #1060 Sunday, January 14th, 2024 – 10:26 pm

    Well well well the Feds have rejected another offshore windfarm in Victoria.

    Seems the Environmental vandals state gov of Victoria have been caught out in their global warming zealotry.

    Look for a shit fight between state and feds the battle of Hastings is still on!

    You do realise that they’ll eventually get built anyway. Just somewhere else. 😐

  5. They already have.

    The main event (presidential nomination) is a mail-in ballot from now up until Super Tuesday (March).

    New Hampshire has been shafted too, the Dems wanted South Carolina to be first.

  6. BTW, the Democrats will be doing the Presidential candidate voting in Iowa via mail-in ballot this year (closing in March), the actual in-person Caucus will just be for party business, election of state delegates etc. which means the outcome of Iowa won’t be known until March (of course, not that there’s really a contest this time around.)

    Technically New Hampshire will be the first primary (Jan 23), but that’s a decision made by the state against the DNC’s wishes, who decided to push South Carolina (Feb 3) to the front, so they will be penalised by the party for that and will likely only get half-votes at the convention. The Biden campaign, in respect to party rules, is boycotting the NH primary and his name won’t be on the ballot but he will be a write-in candidate.

    The first actual Democratic primary result that is non-controversial in its date (i.e. won’t incur a penalty) will be the aforementioned South Carolina primary on February 3. Of course, none of this matters because Biden will almost certainly win the nomination easily but it’s an interesting preview for the next time the contest is more open.

  7. The “managing out” post was a joke btw. I was parodying a certain poster on here who uses that line as a knee-jerk. I probably should have made that clearer because, without context, it does look like a serious post. Apologies and thanks for the corrections (even though I already actually knew about IA, NH and SC.)

  8. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 9:43 pm
    We need more women on this blog!

    Pied pipersays:
    Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 5:20 pm
    Quotas are for inferior women.They are sexist.


    I wonder why most don’t want to post here?.

  9. 2024 US Presidential Election, Trump v Biden, RealClearPolitics Polling Average:

    Trump lead over Biden:
    Dec 14: 3.2
    Dec 21: 2.3
    Dec 28: 2.3
    Jan 4: 1.7
    Jan 11: 1.0

    The trend is only a month old, but it is clearly there. Going pollster by pollster:

    Rasmussen: Dec 6-7, Trump +10; Jan 7-9, Trump +8
    Economist/YouGov: Dec 9-12, Dec 16-18, Dec 31 – Jan 2, Jan 7-9, all Tie
    Reuters/Ipsos: Nov 13-14, Trump +2; Jan 3-9, Tie
    Morning Consult: Dec 15-17, Trump +2; Dec 30 – Jan 1, Trump +1; Jan 5-7, Biden +1
    I&I/TIPP: Nov 30 – Dec 1, Trump +2; Jan 3-5, Trump +1

    Who knows how much longer or further this trend will run. What it does say is that predictions of doom for Joe Biden’s re-election are definitely premature.

  10. See if I kept posting here I’d have felt obligated to donate to you William because I understand maintaining a blog is a lot of work.

    But like I’m going to donate to some dude who, just because he runs the place, thinks he can come out and start accusing me of shit where I literally don’t know what he’s on about. Including the allegation I was pandering to other posters! Like WTF!

    So now you know William. Mistaking me for someone you think you know via email is fine, as long as you’re respectful. Making weird personal comments about me like you have any fucking clue about who I am on your blog is creepy.

    I have no idea why you would choose to die on this hill but you have.

    I fucking hate snide, weak, pathetic pieces of shit like you who try to force your views on others by belitttling them. Arguing with people on a forum is one thing. Dealing with a moderator who lacks objectivity in the exercise of their power is another.

    Expecting a modicum of respect from you is not too much to ask. I have always treated you with respect until you made your stupid, completely irrational attack on me. So don’t give me your “petulant and immature” bullshit, sunshine.

    I suggest you maybe consider tempering some of your personal remarks towards posters that can be, and often are, sometimes way off base.

    But you won’t do that because you’re just a cheap bully. And like all bullies, you get off on it.

    I’ve had my reservations about committing to this place because I have found your approach to moderation to be somewhat questionable William. But I thought it highly unlikely I would find myself subject to it.

    But here I am.

    So thanks for making the situation clear before I made the mistake of donating any of my hard earn cash to you.

  11. Hey, just a PSA: Don’t leverage your donations to try and throw your weight around. It’s a shitty thing to do and makes you look like a complete knob. Donations are donations, they are not a contract or a buy-in to decide how this place is run. If you don’t think someone deserves your donation, so be it. Don’t dangle it in front them to try and get them to dance for you, like some sort of trained animal. It doesn’t work like that.

  12. David, I am waiting for him to say “To hell with this!” and sell the site to some crypto traders, then retire to some relaxing tropical island. 😉

  13. Scientists unnerved by record shattering 2023 temperatures


    “Climate scientists lack an explanation for why 2023 was the world’s hottest year by such a large margin, calling the records revealed Friday “astonishing.”

    Why it matters: Without an adequate explanation for 2023’s record global temperatures, scientists could be missing a shift in the climate system that would call into question their projections of future climate change.

    Driving the news: NOAA, NASA and the independent climate tracking group Berkeley Earth released new annual temperature data on Friday.

    Each group’s data, calculated using slightly different sources and methods, showed the year was by far the hottest on record globally, which defied expectations from earlier in the year.
    Zoom in: The record-breaking heat extended from the air to the sea, NOAA found, as the amount of heat stored in the top 2,000 meters of the ocean shattered records as well.

    The oceans store about 90% of the heat in the climate system, making them a critical climate indicator.
    According to NOAA, 2023 ranks as the hottest year since their instrument data began in 1850, beating out the previous record-holder of 2016 by a record-setting margin of 0.27°F.
    The 10 warmest years in NOAA’s database have each occurred in the past 10 years.
    The intrigue: Typically, climate scientists hold a press conference at the end of a year to explain where the period ranked on the list of hottest years and why.

    This year, NOAA and NASA’s top climate researchers could only accomplish the first part, saying it is not yet known why the year got so unusually warm.
    “We’re looking at this and we’re frankly, astonished,” Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, said during a press conference.”

  14. “the previous record-holder of 2016 by a record-setting margin of 0.27°F.
    The 10 warmest years in NOAA’s database have each occurred in the past 10 years.”


    Not a criticism of you Ven but a criticism of NOAA. Why the hell are they not using SI units, the idiots. The use of imperial crappy units was what caused the Mars Lander to crash and burn (probably not second part, as no oxygen). Fahrenheit is not on the Kelvin scale so should never be used by any institute who wants their science taken seriously. Thus ends my rant.

  15. Mavis says:
    Monday, January 15, 2024 at 1:22 am
    I wonder if Mary’s forgiven her no-good husband for his alleged infidelity – Vive la République!

    Well, I like Mary and think protesting at her coronation would be rude. On the other hand, I’m quite happy for people to throw eggs at Charlie.

    I think that’s because our royal family flaunt their immense wealth and palaces while many of their subjects are poor and homeless. Also, quite a few of them act like complete dicks. But I do find them fascinating and am right up to date with all the royal gossip.

    Having said that, I would happily throw eggs at Freddy if he has actually been doing the dirty on our Mary.

Comments Page 22 of 22
1 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *