Today marks twenty years since the Poll Bludger launched itself on an unsuspecting blogosphere. You may perhaps find in this milestone occasion to reward the site with a birthday present, which will be gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.
Polling news:
• YouGov has intruded on the long-held monopoly of EMRS by publishing a Tasmanian state poll. It points to the existence of a big market for the Jacqui Lambie Network, which is credited with 20% of the vote – enough in the estimation of YouGov’s “likely outcome” to win it seven seats and a decisive position in a lower house that will expand at the next election from 25 seats to 35. The Liberals duly have no chance of recording another majority, being credited with 31% of the vote and a projected eleven seats. Labor are on 27% and ten seats and the Greens 15% and six seats, with independent Kristie Johnston presumed headed for re-election in Clark. It should be noted that when the Jacqui Lambie Network last tried its hand at a state election, in 2018, strong early poll numbers withered during the campaign period and it emerged empty-handed. The poll also assumes it will run in all five divisions, whereas it was reported in November that it will not be running in Clark. The poll was conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850.
• The first federal poll of the year is from Roy Morgan, presumably returning to its weekly schedule after a four-week break over Christmas and New Year. The poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, the third Morgan poll of recent months to have the Coalition leading after two 50.5-49.5 results since October, reversing the result from the last poll in early December. Labor has taken a three-point hit on the primary vote, falling to 29%, with the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation up half to 5%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.
Preselection news:
• The Age reports Labor’s candidate for the looming Dunkley by-election is likely to be Jodie Belyea, manager of MEGT Foundation, which provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women. Belyea has won the seemingly decisive support of the Socialist Left faction for a preselection that will be formally ratified by the party’s national executive over the coming weeks. The list of Liberal contenders has reportedly been reduced to Nathan Conroy, Donna Hope and Bec Buchanan, with David Burgess withdrawing from contention. The by-election is expected to be held in late February.
• The West Australian reports on two prospective nominees for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Curtin, which was lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia, and Tom White, who until recently was Uber’s chief executive for South Korea. It was earlier reported that there was a push in the party for Moran to challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in Curtin’s northern neighbour, Moore, which is also of interest to Vince Connelly, former member for the abolished seat of Stirling.
OC @6.31 pm:
“ Refer to section 14.7 of the special commission. The cases and deaths you refer to were passengers who contracted the disease on board and were not related to the focus of his report.
In 14.7 the commissioner identified 86 secondary and tertiary cases through contact with Ruby Princess passengers. There were no deaths but one was critically ill and recovered.
In 14.8 the Commissioner discusses the North West Tasmanian outbreak. The index cases were likely Ruby Princess passengers but the cause and spread of disease was explored by a Tasmanian commission and he did not comment further.
The report is on-line”
I guess this is directed at me despite your inability to show me the common courtesy of saying as much.
Not to worry!
I’ve filed you under extreme Covid minimiser OC.
All things considered, I think that’s rather generous of me. 🙂
Lib/nats are currently on 55 seats
The only strong hold for Lib/nats is in Qld , the seats if any more in QLD , will likely be counted by the seats they lose in other states
struggling to see federal lib/nats over 60 seats at the 2025 federal election
Sorry, argy bargy it was a rapid response but now you know that the commissioner didn’t identify any deaths due to the granting of pratique.
Argy-Bargysays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 6:22 pm
Could you address your comments about no deaths on the Ruby Princess please OC? Two of us have pointed out that’s BS.
I just want to know if I should file you under bad faith actor, extreme Covid minimiser or closet Covid denier.
Thanks in advance.
================================================================
Probably just be happy he has now recognised it was “Special Commission”. He tried to claim it was a “Royal Commission” in his first posts. Now it appears he knows exactly where in the “Special Commission” report everything is addressed. Seems to be very good knowledge of a report he didn’t even know wasn’t done by a “Royal Commission” just a couple of hours ago though.
Nathan Conroy isn’t attractive. He has a fat, featureless face with zero definition and a double chin! Still, that fits the Liberal stereotype.
Entropy @ #1008 Sunday, January 14th, 2024 – 6:54 pm
Yes, as a doctor, Oakeshott Country, thinks it’s all aok for a Liberal Premier to have let infected people off a boat to spread Covid into the community, far and wide across the nation, as long as no one died. 😐
C@t,
There is a lot of money going in to our disgraceful media that has successfully persuaded most of the country since federation that it is morally and emotionally correct to hate Labor, no matter what they do.
In fact a hypothesis could be raised that a big reason that the Hawke-Keating government lasted so long was because of the mess the Coalition was in from 1983 to the 90’s, with the Peacock-Howard-Hewson circus, and also the “Joh for Canberra” campaign in 1987.
How dare OC be on top of the material facts. A clear sign of bad faith.
Agreed as AE said, even though the PHU of SESLHD reported the Ruby Princess to be low risk and allowed the passengers to disembark, Gladys (or Bin Chicken, as he delightfully calls her) should have personally stopped the boat.
I think we can all agree with that.
C@t @ 6.57 pm:
“ Yes, as a doctor, Oakeshott Country, thinks it’s all aok for a Liberal Premier to have let infected people off a boat to spread Covid into the community, far and wide across the nation, as long as no one died. ”
I’m sorry, am I understanding you correctly that the person saying these things is a doctor? Like actually medically trained, allowed to practice type doctor?
That is correct, Argybargy. OC has a far better-informed and more valuable perspective on this issue than your own. The fact that C@tmomma and Entropy are taking your side doesn’t get you as far as you think it does. Now please stop embarrassing yourself.
William Bowesays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 7:04 pm
How dare OC be on top of the material facts. A clear sign of bad faith.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 10:58 am
That was the opinion of the Royal Commission
===============================================================
He seems to have a good handle on the detail but in beginning seemed not to know where that detail came from. The huge different in gravitas between a “Royal Commission” carried out by a judge plus a courtroom of SC’s etc and a “Special Commission” carried out by a lone SC. It is like claiming you sent a Missile Frigate when in fact you sent a guy on a surf ski brandishing a spear gun instead.
I am a bit late to this, and have not read every contribution – but the claim that ‘nobody died due to Ruby Princess debacle’, according to my recollection and reporting at the time, is bullshit.
Mind you, this was in the pre-vaccination availability days – where the quarantine responsibility of the Commonwealth under s51 was failed by the Morrison government.
The Australian Constitution includes a power for the Commonwealth Parliament to make laws with respect to ‘quarantine’ in section 51(ix).
Tasmania has recorded its second coronavirus death, an elderly man who was being cared for at the Royal Hobart Hospital.
There have been two coronavirus deaths in Tasmania — a woman in her 80s in Burnie and an elderly man in Hobart
Both cases were linked to travel on the Ruby Princess cruise ship which docked in Sydney earlier this month
Two other COVID-19 cases in Tasmania are still under investigation to confirm whether they were the result of community transmission or a known contact
Premier Peter Gutwein confirmed the death this morning, saying there was “a message in that for all of us”.
“This virus is deadly, this virus will kill you,” he said.
“Social distancing and abiding by the rules will save your life, it will save your family’s lives, it will save lives in our community.”
Yesterday, a woman in her 80s died at the North West Regional Hospital in Burnie.
Health Minister Sarah Courtney said both people had been passengers on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
The Ruby Princess has been linked to hundreds of coronavirus cases.
The ship was at the centre of a stoush between the federal and NSW governments, after 2,700 passengers were allowed to disembark earlier this month despite several people onboard being tested for coronavirus.
Early on Tuesday evening authorities confirmed no new cases had been identified during the day.
There remain 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state, including three that were confirmed late Monday night.
Ms Courtney said 10 people in the state have recovered and been cleared.
The national death toll is now at 19.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-31/coronavirus-tasmania-records-second-death/12103576?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
Entropy, the reason you are harping on about the royal commission issue it is that the actual points of substance in this matter are well within OC’s powers of comprehension but entirely beyond your own.
WB @ 7.04 pm:
“ How dare OC be on top of the material facts. A clear sign of bad faith.”
Ok so I’m missing some kind of in joke then?
I quoted him because I value clear communication on the internet. And if you want to go back and check he never specified that he was referring to people who were secondary infections not dying.
Because people died from contracting Covid on the Ruby Princess. And any claim that no secondary or tertiary infections resulted in death is, well you know, only a best guess.
It’s actually pretty poor form. I’m a blow in in Tassie and a hermit and even I, unexpectedly, found myself only two degrees separated from some of the RB deaths. (Randomly had a tradie come to the house who happened to know them).
Personally, I’m fine with people catching Covid over and over and over again. Knock yourself out. I ain’t gonna be looking after you if it all goes to shit.
Did you make the comment you did at 7:11pm because you “value clear communication on the internet”, as you so pompously assert? Because I have a quite different theory.
The brouhaha concerning Lewis is a nothing-burger and just another attempt by Trumpeters to disparage a woman of colour. It may not be a good look but there are no ethical issues that I know of with her having a personal relationship with a prosecutor she’s briefed from private practice.
______________________________________
Judging by some of the questions asked by the DC Court of Appeals, the issue of whether Trump has blanket immunity
against criminal prosecution is a fait accompli. He’s going down heavily once the Appeals Court hands down its decision, which could be within a week. In an attempt to stall his March, 4 trial before Chutkan, he’ll probably seek to have the matter heard before the 15 judges of the DC Appeals Court; 8 of which must grant his motion – they won’t! Moreover, I very much doubt that the US Supreme Court will entertain an appeal from him on the basis that it denied Smith’s motion for a writ of certiorari, most likely on the basis that blanket presidential immunity is so utterly foreign to democratic principles as to even shock this Bench from its partisanship, its corruption. Victoria’s right!
William Bowesays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Entropy, the reason you are harping on about the royal commission issue it is that the actual points of substance in this matter are well within OC’s powers of comprehension but entirely beyond your own.
========================================================================
I made no statements/posts either way on whether the Ruby Princess was responsible for deaths or not. The original arguments/discussion were about whether the Federal Government or the State Government were ultimately responsible for disease quarantine in Australia. That is when the “Royal Commission claim arose. True, i have no idea if the Ruby Princess resulted in transmission and death or if it did to what level. Hence i have never argued with OC over that point.
I did overreach in my previous comment about you, Entropy.
The issues that matter most to the lunatics who will be deciding the outcome of the Iowa Republican caucuses:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/iowa-republicans-stand-issues-ahead-caucuses/story?id=106294549
William Bowesays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 7:46 pm
I did overreach in my previous comment about you, Entropy.
============================================================
Thanks, it was a mild rebuke compared to what others have called me on here. I do enjoy having an argument or debate at times. So i have to accept at times people will find me annoying due to that propensity.
Asha – Bill Clinton got 2.9% of the vote in the 1992 Iowa caucuses.
Entropy @ Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 8:07 pm:
“I do enjoy having an argument or debate at times. So i have to accept at times people will find me annoying due to that propensity.”
==========
Entropy, I can empathise. I appreciate your contributions, though.
WB @ 7.33 pm:
“ Did you make the comment you did at 7:11pm because you “value clear communication on the internet”, as you so pompously assert? Because I have a quite different theory.”
Ok when I posted, yes. Because OC said no one died from the RP “disaster”. Which, as I said, is patently ridiculous. And wrong.
Although having been a long time lurker, I started to question myself after seeing C@t’s post that I maybe knew OC was a doctor but had forgotten.
A bit like you thought we knew each other but we don’t eh?………..
But please understand this WB, my views about all things Covid are entirely based on the science. Always have been, always will be. Don’t give a damn what cat, entropy, OC, you or any man and their dog think.
Sorry to disappoint you by not fitting into whatever little comfortable pigeon hole you wanted to slot me into.
Oh and I’m in a quandary about who to vote for next election partly because the current government’s response to Covid is not to my liking. Which I fully expect to attract Cat’s ire.
Except I’m pretty sure you’re about to ban me. (Soz C@t!)
But at least humour me by enlightening me with your “different theory” because I’m sorry champ, but I’ve got no clue what you mean by that.
I’m actually a big fan of strict moderation on forums. But I have seen you employ this technique of accusing a supposed transgressor of something that you fail to define numerous times WB and, I’ve gotta say, I’m not a fan. Looks a lot like abuse of power to me.
Lars:
…Yes?
Argybargy, it is, or should be, the most obvious fact in the world that OC’s comment referred to the consequences of the NSW government’s decision to allow people to disembark — not the fact that the virus broke out on the ship in the first place, which had nothing do with any action of any Australian government.
Argy-Bargy:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 8:25 pm
Dear OC’s a protected species. You should perhaps get used to it.
Mavis says:
Dear OC’s a protected species. You should perhaps get used to it.
________
well he does often bring some high grade shit to the table. A boss should always look after his best earners.
Asha the point of my example is Iowa is unrepresentative. Clinton got under 3% in Iowa and ended up winning 2 presidential elections.
I’m starting to settle that dear moderator has bog-Irish antecedents.
WB @ 8.35 pm:
“ Argybargy, it is, or should be, the most obvious fact in the world that OC’s comment referred to the consequences of the NSW government’s decision to allow people to disembark — not the fact that the virus broke out on the ship in the first place, which had nothing do with any action of any Australian government.”
Go back and read the original post. There was nothing whatsoever to indicate they meant that. That was my whole reason for saying it may have been in bad faith. It’s an extraordinary bit of obfuscation for anyone to make. Let alone a doctor.
WB @ 7.33 pm:
“ Did you make the comment you did at 7:11pm because you “value clear communication on the internet”, as you so pompously assert? Because I have a quite different theory.”
So what’s your “different theory” about my pompous assertion? You didn’t answer that.
Because I’ve got no idea what you’re implying so either:
– put up
-shut up
– or ban me.
I didn’t think you were creepy when you mistakenly thought we knew each other.
But being so presumptuous towards someone innocently posting on your blog is creepy.
In before being banned, thanks for the heads up Mavis! lol
Are they lovers or what?
This original comment?
He’s talking about the decision of a senior health bureaucrat to allow people to disembark. He obviously knows perfectly well that there was an outbreak on the ship that led to deaths.
I was wondering who would volunteer to be the 20th anniversary thrill-kill today. Looks like we have the answer.
Argy-Bargy:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 8:25 pm
I can assure you that you’ll not be banned! I’m off.
”
Ashasays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 8:04 pm
The issues that matter most to the lunatics who will be deciding the outcome of the Iowa Republican caucuses:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/iowa-republicans-stand-issues-ahead-caucuses/story?id=106294549
”
Asha
I don’t like caucus voting.
First of all it is not secret. Since it is not secret organisers of caucuses and agents of candidates know who you voting for.
Second of all, it can and will cause fissures with in families and between friends with candidates like Trump. It may even lead to violence later.
Thirdly, people will not vote with free will with everyone watching them especially with a candidate like Trump
Argy-Bargy @ 9.02 really unnecessary comment.
Mining billionaire Andrew Forrest has escalated his war against oil and gas producers, and Woodside in particular, flying by helicopter off the remote WA coast to lambast its $18 billion Scarborough gas export project as a “carbon dioxide bomb”.
Just weeks after the COP28 international climate meeting in Dubai in mid-December called for the world to transition away from burning fossil fuels for energy, Forrest was flying over the ocean off Western Australia’s north-west surveilling a vessel conducting seismic testing of the Scarborough gas field.
The December COP communique was the first to mention fossil fuel, and Forrest blamed the earlier 27 omissions on a “cynical charade” of lobbying by oil and gas companies. “They’ve had thousands of their little soldiers riding around in their little suits, pushing back on anyone who would even mention that fossil fuel is destroying our planet,” he said. “That absolutely cynical charade [is] as ridiculous as people saying renewable energy somehow is an eyesore.” The iron ore magnate turned green-energy evangelist said instead of investing in renewable energy, oil and gas companies had doubled down on peddling “poisonous energy”.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/mining-billionaire-andrew-forrest-steps-up-fight-against-big-oil-and-gas-20240112-p5ewvq.html
Mavis @ 9.09 pm:
“ I can assure you that you’ll not be banned! I’m off.”
See that’s the problem, I’m not sure that I don’t want to be banned. I’ve seen him make these cryptic accusations of others but never thought I’d end up in that position.
But here I am.
Really sorry to disappoint you LVT but I’m a 60+ female. William banning me would bother me for about 3/5 of a nanosecond (and the only bother would be what the hell he meant by that weirdo “different theory” statement that he now steadfastly refuses to acknowledge).
Back from a very pleasant dinner.
Not only do I have a medical degree but I came out of retirement in 2020 to add my small part to NSW Health’s Covid response.
Four years later I have handed my resignation in this week, having spent the last 18 months trying to get the surgical waiting lists back to BAU, which we have finally achieved in my district.
I think it is safe to say that compared to the global response, the response of all Australian jurisdictions was stellar based on pre-existing game plans, dedicated staff and rational decision making at government level.
I meant only that your comment at 7:11pm made you look petulant and immature, as have a number of things you have said since.
Davidwh @ 9.24 pm:
“ Argy-Bargy @ 9.02 really unnecessary comment.”
Yeah sure as opposed to some rando on the internet abusing their power by make believing they have some deep understanding of me on their forum that I’ve only posted on a dozen times or so.
Nothing weird or creepy about that at all. :/
We need more women on this blog! 😯
Australia had to have Covid run it’s course. We did as well as some of the best, slowed it down as best we could for the hospitals and vaccinations to handle it and even though it was tough we did it.
The only way to see if our response was to slow is to work out deaths before before they had the opportunity to get the vaccine and decide if it was to slow compared to other First world countries and give a bit of a minus to us for having the advantage of better isolation as a country than most.
I think we will come out better than most countries.
During the initial, high fatality strains our ranking on death rate per million was in the 150s+. Together with NZ there were no large or developed countries, except China!, that had a lower mortality rate.
Ven. I believe the Iowa Republican caucuses do use secret ballots.
The Dems do not.
Parnell Palme McGuinness giving kudos to an Albanese government policy:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/just-when-you-thought-he-d-given-up-albanese-surprises-on-indigenous-empowerment-20240112-p5ewr2.html
Lars:
Well, yeah.
The sky is also blue.
nathsays:
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 8:46 pm
Mavis says:
Dear OC’s a protected species. You should perhaps get used to it.
________
well he does often bring some high grade shit to the table. A boss should always look after his best earners.
===================================================================
Is this a subtle hint to suggest you shouldn’t be banned in future?.
Quote: “In the matters of your mistake you defend it like a lawyer, in the matters of other’s mistake you act like a judge.”
Note: The quote is a good general observation. We are all guilty of at times. I’m not suggesting any specific application of it here.
Ven:
I couldn’t really care less about potentially family feuds between the sort of people who choose to support the Republican party in this day and age (frankly, they can all get stuffed), but, yes, otherwise I agree. It’s a totally archaic system that is only barely democratic.
While I don’t expect any better from the GOP, the Democrats should have dumped the caucuses for a regular primary ballot decades ago.