Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Breaking News
The reachtel poll as the coalition leading labor by 51/49 as they on course to win the May 18 election.
Speaking of Emma Husar, this is how she dealt with one of ScuMo’s ‘Christian’ mates after he attacked her in this way:
Emma Husar
@emmahusarmp
·
5h
Well, top of the morning to you too mate… Also welcome to “social” media.
“In their defense the NSW HO has just had to go through one Opposition Leader, lose another AND fight a NSW State Election since then. As for the National Secretariat, can’t help you there, except to say at least they found out BEFORE the election. #4 will be happy anyway. ”
Come on. 10 months to sort THIS out. Especially when she won preselection at the height of the last round of s.44 fuck ups!
If this had been ‘caught’ just weeks ago it wouldn’t have been a problem.
I’m pretty sure that #4 (which is the ‘no win’ seat usually reserved for the second choice left wing candidate from last year’s annual conference ballot & centre unity wont be giving up its spot lightly) won’t be the happy beneficiary. This is a winnable seat and there will be a lot of pretty stiff competition to secure the spot. I wonder if Julie Sibraa might be in with a shot. She’d be a deserving choice IMO.
Give it a break Wayne – it grew old ages ago.
Morrison allowed the cameras in to his church in order that he could set himself up as a martyr when the inevitable mockery occurred.
____
Effective decision analysis requires consideration of possible adverser consequences.
Wayne @ #451 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:23 pm
The Waynes will continue until morale improves.
A_E,
I hope so. Julie Sibraa is a beautiful person. 🙂
Those who don’t like the betting ads on PB can offset Mr Bowe’s need to host them by donating directly to PB. 🙂
––––––––––––––
Al Pal @ #160 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:14 am
Did you also complain about changes to the super system when they benefited you, and threaten to change your vote to stop them?
You’ll be fine under a Shorten Labor government.
––––––––––––––
EGW @ #294 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 12:46 pm
The best weapon against ScoMo is ScoMo.
––––––––––––––
Andrew_Earlwood @ #408 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:08 pm
The whole thing was a blatant set-up to give the increasingly desperate arseclown an opportunity to act all outraged and persecuted, and (as Boerwar noted) take the spotlight off other more important issues.
It it entirely bogus.
––––––––––––––
And a big fat fuck you, Labor, for letting yet another s44 through the net, after all that has happened in the last few years.
This is not the behaviour of an experienced professional political party serious about winning.
Both the candidate and the responsible party officials need their arses kicked hard over this. By which I mean sacked.
You idiots didn’t learn from your first self-inflicted arse kicking?
Seriously pissed off about this inexcusable repeat fuck-up. 🙁
rhw
I did not expect those questions to be answered any time soon.
At the moment we have, I believe, Christensen, Corman, Cash and possibly Porter refusing to answer AFP questions. We have Sinodinos with acquired memory loss syndrome.
We have Ley, Robert, Sinondinos all demoted and then remoted.
We have Morrison refusing to answer questions routinely.
We have Morrison lying routinely.
All that said, I do hope some enterprising journalist, this evening, asks Joyce to describe what communications occured between his advisers and the Department and then between his advisers and himself.
I would bet any money that conversations did happen on all serious related topics.
Why ask the question if it is not answered?
Because it would demonstrate in and of itself that Joyce’s assertion that they buy back was at arm’s length is hocum.
Graham @ #448 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:20 pm
An issue that has been around for awhile is Morrison’s faith and being part of a Pentecostal order. No previous Leader has been affiliated with this Group. I’m sure there is genuine scepticism about Pentecostals. Perhaps Morrison, knowing he’s cooked politically , is looking at promoting religious tolerance as his legacy.
A-E
Agree. But all things are relative. The Coalition has removed seven candidates. Six for s44 and one for saying things that were bizarre.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #453 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:24 pm
Shanghai Sam will be sniffing around…
Boerwar @ #462 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:30 pm
And there’s another one on the radar. Gerard Rennick. #3 on the LNP Queensland ticket.
“And a big fat fuck you, Labor, for letting yet another s44 through the net, after all that has happened in the last few years.
This is not the behaviour of an experienced professional political party serious about winning.
Both the candidate and the responsible party officials need their arses kicked hard over this. By which I mean sacked.
You idiots didn’t learn from your first self-inflicted arse kicking?
Seriously pissed off about this inexcusable repeat fuck-up. ”
Sigh …
…
Yep. 🙁
“Shanghai Sam will be sniffing around…”
He’d rather kill himself.
I will be will be partying on May 18 when our great LNP win the May 18 election by a landslide
I will be will be partying on May 18 when our great LNP win the May 18 election by landslide.
This is not the behaviour of an experienced professional political party serious about winning.
So you must be seriously blowing your top about the Coalition’s SIX candidates already removed for S44 breaches. No?
But you’d have to agree:
This is not the behaviour of an experienced professional political party serious about winning. 🙂
What conversations occurred between Joyce’s advisers and the water selling company?
Was the move between $2200 and $2700 discussed between Joyce’s advisers and the water selling company’s representatives?
Al Pal @ #160 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:44 am
Kmart workers have no choice in super funds either thanks to the SDA and Kmart.
Craig Emerson killed Morrison’s insistence that LNP have a climate change policy by explaining that by taking over Abbott’s policy they were accepting one that started with “cc is crap”.
Wayne @ #468 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:36 pm
Out of curiosity, do you work for a newspaper?
Who on the ALP side is questionable re #s44?
I thought Labor had all their candidates sorted.
When do noms close? Or have they?
Wayne @ #468 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:36 pm
Dancing with yourself?
jen
They’re closed.
jenauthor @ #474 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:38 pm
Dr Mary Ross, Wagga Wagga GP. Noms close April 29. I think. 🙂
jenauthor @ #474 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:38 pm
The NSW candidate for the seat around Wagga has been removed.
There were also two Libs disendorsed because of S44 today.
AE
S44 continues to weed out incompetent people. If you can’t get some simple paperwork filled out, you shouldn’t be anywhere near parliament. It’s amazing the parties still stuff it up.
All things liable to change without notice. Scott Morrison has confirmed that two Australians have been killed in the Sri Lankan attacks.
Dio
You would think that being born o/s might just provide a bit of a hint…
Nominations close tomorrow at noon.
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/nominations.htm
z
Sorry. My bad.
GG
OBE. QED.
ScoFo doesn’t discuss “on-Bubble” matters!
Here’s a question then: Why would we want an evasive jerkoff like you as PM?
Answer: we don’t. You’re head-first in the trash come May 18 son.
zoomster @ #482 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:41 pm
Last chance Emma …??
Boerwar @ #4174 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:28 pm
I agree with all of this – but the current perspective is exclusively political, and will be until the inevitable ALP victory occurs. The controlling players at present are The Ruperts and the lesser Plutocrats (like Stokes & whomever is pulling the Hammock Dweller’s strings these days) operating through their propaganda organs – which cannot maintain the monopoly in the face of the loss of the middle ground.
There will be no civil or legal penalty for any of the egregious abuses that have become SOP for any of Rupert’s servants. The only remedy is to accept that they will not suffer anywhere but the ballot box – but then to enjoy the legal hounding of the arseholes with RCs & other inquiries from the Government benches.
Only Australian incompetent people in our parliament, please!
here’s a meme worth consideration.
Remember that you have to have received notification from the country you’re renouncing that you’ve successfully renounced.
Candidates might have gone through all the correct processes and still be ineligible, not through any fault of their own but because of tardiness (or whatever) from the other country.
Which is why you’d be stepping down today, because it’s now clear that nothing’s in the mail.
BW
Especially if you are a GP. They have all kinds of rules about working if they are from another country. It’s so bad you suspect it was deliberate so she didn’t lose her UK citizenship.
Boerwar @ #484 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:43 pm
POQ? FU?
Like it GG
What a greedy bunch of pricks. May they end up on a boycott list.
Public holiday surcharge remains despite penalty rates reduction
Many inner-city Sydney venues were charging customers a surcharge of 10 per cent to 15 per cent on Easter Monday despite a reduction in penalty rates for hospitality staff.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/public-holiday-surcharge-remains-despite-penalty-rates-reduction-20190422-p51g6n.html
rhw
The Coalition has resisted RCs that exposed it and its mates. Chief of the latter were the RCs into child sex abuse and the Banking RC. Both of these were, in various ways, damaging to the Coalition.
OTOH, the Coalition has deployed RCs very willingly designed, in particular, to destroy Labor leaders. These were damaging to Gillard and Shorten.
Labor would be wise to assess the landscape when it gets into Government and becomes fully-briefed by the departments.
The chosen RCs, and their TOR, would, IMO, be best deployed to send some crooks to jail and some Liberal and Nationals cronies with them. In these matters timing is important.
I look forward to the next set of RCs.
zoomster @ #490 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:46 pm
*cough! George Brandis*
‘Diogenes says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 4:46 pm
BW
Especially if you are a GP. They have all kinds of rules about working if they are from another country. It’s so bad you suspect it was deliberate so she didn’t lose her UK citizenship.’
You can lead a horse to water but some horses want to take their water with them.
poroti @ #494 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:47 pm
Oh, but they will stwuggle if Penalty Rates are reintroduced by Labor! 🙄
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/angus-taylor-barnaby-joyce-and-an-80-million-water-leak,12603
That shabby, badly edited little journal, the Independent Australia runs a story on Watergate that the ever so refined and poshy-presented Australian would refuse to run (because it just masquerades as a newspaper) . Only just started, but looks like required reading.
No I don’t work at a newspaper