Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
And here’s the first round of deflection for #watergate: ‘But they did it too!’.
https://twitter.com/fergushunter/status/1120177302589960193
Almost 50 per cent of voters are confused about how the new Senate voting system works and may be unwittingly giving some of their preferences to parties they believe they had put last, a new poll suggests.
The Australia Institute, who conducted the poll, says the Australian Electoral Commission needs to urgently review the instructions it is giving to voters for the May 18 election to ensure people understand what they are doing with their votes.
Under the new system for Senate voting, introduced shortly before the 2016 federal election, voters are told to number “at least” six boxes if they are voting “above the line”.
Last year, progressive think tank The Australia Institute gave 1450 people the directions from a Senate voting paper and then presented them with a series of statements to test how well they understood the rules.
When asked if “you should give a ‘six’ to the party you dislike more than any other party on the ballot paper”, 47 per cent of respondents agreed. In a separate question, 32 per cent also agreed: “if you number beyond ‘six’ your ballot paper is disqualified”. Both these statements are incorrect.
Australia Institute director Ben Oquist said the results raise serious concerns that voters “may express their intentions in ways that backfire”. “Giving a ‘six’ to your least liked party is in fact putting them above all parties you do not number, not putting them last”.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/one-in-two-voters-don-t-understand-how-to-vote-for-the-senate-poll-20190419-p51flf.html
Speaking of maths, I had some time today to look up some economic data I had been wondering about for a while. I have been highly critical of Liberal economic (in)competence for years. They have been far too busy giving their mates a go to notice whether we have been going any good. If you are wondering about the reality of our economy since Gillard, see this graph. It measures Aussie GDP over time vs the US dollar.
https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/ipc_australia_nominal-gdp?type=area&period=10y&lang=en
Obviously the comparison is impacted by the ups and downs of the US economy over the same time period. But the stagnation since 2013 is striking. In US dollar terms our economy is worth less now than under Gillard. We forget that most of the rest of the world is booming along now, making our comparative performance even worse.
Talk of a “per capita recession” may not be standard in economics, but it is relevant at present. For most people, Australia is going backwards.
ScumMo and Co have been running Greek austerity style budgets now, with taxes and spending cuts failing to create growth, for five years. Only record net immigration has prevented recording a nominal recession. Like Greece, our debt has gone up, not down.
And what is the Liberal solution? More tax cuts and spending cuts, with a promised (but fake) surplus. There is no plan as such, more a modus operandi. If we do not get rid of the coalition grifters this time, what else will be sent to the Cayman Islands in the next three yesrs?
Confessions @ #398 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:20 pm
Well, there you go. There’s the first furphy. That $303 Million figure looks to me like a total figure for the whole of 2009, whereas the $80 Million is for ONE purchase.
Rex
It’s no answer to a well made point by someone on issue X to reply by saying “what about issue Y? Huh? Huh?” It makes you look an idiot. Which, tbf yo plainly are.
Reminds me of a cricket forum where I post when someone will say “Ponting was a better player of pure pace bowling than Lara or Tendulkar” (which of course is 100% right) and you get a reply from a Tendulkar fan boy saying “Ponting was shit in India. Wasn’t he? Eh? Yeah! What about that?!”
That’s how brain dead you are. Try another approach ffs. This posting is woeful.
Another one who wants to prop up thermal coal mining and exports.
Labor has interesting allies on this issue…
Scrott reacting badly:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scott-morrison-attacks-gutless-keyboard-warriors-who-mocked-his-church-worshipping-20190422-p51g44.html
Guessing that “turn the other cheek” doesn’t hold in prosperity evangelical pop Christianity.
Personally I find it disturbing that a person who is a member of such a crackpot cult holds any position of power or influence in a secular state institution. Speaking in tongues on Sunday is obviously good practice for speaking with a forked tongue the other 6 days.
Burgey @ #403 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:31 pm
Good luck with getting Rex Douglas to do that, he thinks he’s on a winner. Sucks new people in all the time. 😆
Burgey @ #406 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:31 pm
When it comes to shifty business, Fitzgibbon is hardly one to throw stones…
C@tmomma @ #409 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:39 pm
If you want to bag me at least do it directly.
Breaking News
The LNP are leading in the new reachtel poll 51/49 and will win the May election by a landslide
C@t:
I find the whole water buybacks very confusing, but I fully expect this will be something Barnaby leaps on when he is interviewed on radio later today.
Seriously, I think that if you make a point of showing off your attendance at church services, while you may hope people will admire you for your devotion, you need to be prepared for those who think less of you.
ScoMo belongs to a cultish church that extracts very large amounts of cash from its members by way of tithes and other contributions. It displays its wealth ostentatiously. It professes to encourage belief in a mystical being, all-knowing, infinite and omnipotent. There’s even been a paedophilia scandal or two. So far, so good. Nobody’s perfect. So aren’t many other churches. They’re a little crazy, but the Pentecostals aren’t too much crazier than all the rest.
But when it comes their promoting Israel – but only so the Jews can serve as useful dupes for the greater glory of the Pentecostal Chosen (and then be abandoned to their fate as the killers of Christ) – and applying that wacky eschatology to government at home (by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, along with only two other countries), then I start to get suspicious.
To a Happy Clapper this kind of End Times guff is religious meat and potatoes. They don’t give a shit about the rest of humanity, the environment, or the planet. Their reward – with the emphasis on they, themselves – is in heaven. An eternity of happy clapping and hand-waving awaits them. Compared to that kind of rapture, nothing merely of this Earth can possibly measure up.
That’s what makes ScoMo dangerous. Already his halleujah pals in the Church are celebrating his accession to the Prime Ministership as, literally, God’s Will. What other craziness might be in their heads, we can only guess.
Or we can wait for some journo to ask ScoMo himself whether he believes God has smited Abbott, Turnbull and Dutton, followed by Shorten, simply to smooth his and his co-clappers path to Eternal Life.
Compared to that cockamamy nonsense the Flying Spaghetti Monster is starting to look like sober scientific fact.
WayneFakeNews #
“Labor’s No 3 Senate candidate in NSW has withdrawn her candidacy just days ahead of the close of nominations amid fears she risked falling foul of section 44 of the Constitution.
Britain-born GP Mary Ross was endorsed in the third spot on Labor’s NSW ticket in June 2018, describing her candidacy as “a dream come true”.
“I’m super excited. I never thought I would be in this position, especially now, when Labor is so strong and has such relevant policies,” the Wagga Wagga doctor told her local paper at the time.
Dr Ross had been actively campaigning for the seat until last week, when her ALP social media profiles were wiped.”
Oh. For fucks sake people. Get. Your. Act. Together!!
This is simply unacceptable. She – and the NSW Secretariat – have had 10 months to get their ducks in a row. It’s not as if this issue wasn’t ‘topical’ when she won preselection either.
Also, I like Labor’s chances of picking up a 3rd senate seat in NSW as well. So, its not like she was a candidate in an unwinnable seat.
Grrrr. Angry.
Wayne @ #409 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:42 pm
What happened to the Ipsos and Newspoll, Wayne?
I don’t particularly care if our MPs are religious so long as they keep their religion to themselves.
Ha ha just seen that the “exclusive” Lanai Scarr story on the front page of The West was reworked from Alice Workman’s one on Bill being left off campaign material.
The West is dominated by Murdoch stories having sacked all their ‘real’ journalists.
Let’s try that again, shall we? 😳
Andrew-Earlwood,
Kaila is in love and I think she has dropped the ball somewhat as a result. 😐
I am surprised no journo has called Morrison out on the basis of Luke 18:10.
I know nothing about the bible but google is a friend.
It is about the rich, Pharisee praying ostentatiously at the front of the church (with his tv camera crew there too) Vs the despised tax collector praying privately up the back.
The moral is that the humble will be exalted and the exalted will be humbled (on May 18 2019).
And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others.
Snap
I actually prefer to know if they’re making decisions based on religion rather than it being hidden.
I don’t even know why that’s a thing. I received my local MP’s postal vote application in the mail last week and I don’t recall seeing any images of Scott Morrison on the pamphlet. I assumed it was because it might just revive uncomfortable memories of his role in knifing Turnbull.
C@t:
‘Bubble questions’ are akin to ‘on water matters’. Remember how he dodged scrutiny as Immigration Minister back in the day?
Confessions @ #428 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:56 pm
He thinks he’s smart to do it but even the journos on the Insiders couch were onto it yesterday.
Psyclaw
Agreed. I have also always wondered about far right “christians” and the Gospel response of Jesus when asked about paying taxes “give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar.” ScumMo seems more likely to argue that, since he is not Italian, he is not obliged to pay taxes.
Has Lanai Scarr seen the dirt or is she just taking it on faith from the Coalition?
“Kaila is in love and I think she has dropped the ball somewhat as a result. ”
Since when is head office a one person band? WE have a full time compliance officer now, FFS. An experienced and competent hand as well. Where is the National Secretariat in this clustercuss? Is it too much to ask for some basic professionalism? Especially given all those resources thrown at tidying up the party over the past 7 years or so …
lizzie @ #334 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:13 pm
Here, here!
No bleats for legislation to protect “Christians”.
Just gets on with his good works and proclaims the true message of Christianity.
The MSM fail to recognise the difference between the $300 million water purchases by labor and the $80 million by Barnaby.
All of the purchases by labor contained in the $300 million total went to tender and all have been reviewed by the National Audit Office.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #433 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:00 pm
In their defense the NSW HO has just had to go through one Opposition Leader, lose another AND fight a NSW State Election since then. As for the National Secretariat, can’t help you there, except to say at least they found out BEFORE the election. #4 will be happy anyway. 🙂
doyley @ #434 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:03 pm
Is there a link to that advice ?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #432 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:00 pm
NSW Labor still a clustercuss… with added ‘dark elements’.
Rex Douglas @ #348 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:25 pm
WOW!!! Rex Douglas has said something I agree with. 😆
As I commented yesterday, Cassidy was using the $80 million figure as the largest ever. As if that was the issue. It wasn’t. Lazy journalism and now giving the thieves some cover.
The issue is that the price at that time was the highest per meg ever: $2700 for water which would not have fetched anything near that on the open market.
steve davis @ #352 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:27 pm
Yes, I give ‘God’, if she exists, more credit for intelligence than the fundies do.
EGW @ #438 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:10 pm
Deep down you always agree with me
What did Joyce’s ministerial staff know at the time?
What did they tell Joyce?
What did he tell them?
What directions did they give to the Department on behalf of the Minister?
What conversations were held by any of the above?
When?
What topics?
What do the Department’s meeting notes say?
Morrison would be 100% happy that there is a shitfight about his religion. It takes the heat of his total lack of a policy on energy and emissions.
It takes the heat off watergate.
It takes the heat of the RB’s indication that the economy is stalling and that the next movement in interest rates is down.
It takes the heat off China’s trade war on Australia.
It takes the heat off a record drought, record temperatures, 600,000 dead cattle, 1,000,000 etc, etc.
It takes the heat off RISING unemployment.
Much thunder, some lightning, and a smidge of rain.
Dust settled. Smoke haze settled. Temperature coolth a degree or two.
#weatheronPB.
“NSW Labor still a clustercuss… with added ‘dark elements’.”
Oh, FFS Rex. Back in the good ole’ days of your imagined ‘dark elements’ there was a basic competency, which I had thought we had re-established.
One can still be ‘evil’ and professional at the same time. Similarly it shouldn’t be beyond the ken of an organisation, any organisation, to be professional about its basic functions, whether that organisation be virtuous or not. Alas, it seems at the moment we are neither evil or professional: at least in this instance. Here is hoping it is an aberration.
Yesterday it was penalty rate cuts.
Today it is a major offensive on wages.
Wage week has commenced.
Burgey @ #406 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:31 pm
Seriously, if you think he’s “brain dead”, why do you argue with him?
“I don’t particularly care if our MPs are religious so long as they keep their religion to themselves.”
Morrison allowed the cameras in to his church in order that he could set himself up as a martyr when the inevitable mockery occurred.
No politician does anything without reference to the optics. That includes giving the press access to his church. This was obviously a set up to provide Scummo with some badly needed high moral ground from which he can denounce the unbelievers.
Breaking News
The reachtel poll as the coalition leading labor by 51/49 as they on course to win the May 18 election
Boerwar @ #4156 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:12 pm
None of these will be answered until the RC (which will be the first announced by the new government). The problem for the LNP is that this involves another personal decision by Joyce – the one person with absolutely no political capital left. His political pillory will occupy the next 3 weeks, with no way out.