Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Never bet on things that talk!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Rather slim pickings today I’m afraid.
Elizabeth Knight tells us that big business concerns reflect their belief that the economy is increasingly fragile and that Labor’s policies might tip the scales.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-big-business-won-t-say-publicly-about-a-labor-victory-20190418-p51fcr.html
Katharine Murphy reports that Shorten will\focus on regional tourism today while the Coalition is under pressure over water buybacks.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/morrison-and-shorten-target-key-states-as-labor-makes-pitch-on-workers-pay
David Wroe has his say on #watergate.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/taxpayers-dudded-in-water-deal-experts-say-as-calls-grow-for-royal-commission-20190421-p51fzs.html
Paul Bongiorno says that unlike the boy in the bubble who depended on his hermetically sealed dome to keep him safe from life-threatening infection, Scott Morrison’s bubble is killing him. He pretends the coup of last August that delivered him the prime ministership is now of interest only to other inhabitants of the political bubble – the Canberra press gallery.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/04/15/bongiorno-sukkar-morrison-bubble/
Michelle Grattan looks at the weekend efforts from the two leaders and Turnbull.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-malcolm-turnbulls-home-truths-on-the-neg-help-labor-in-the-climate-wars-115795
Judith Ireland says the Greens are in the fight of their lives to save their senate seats from falling to One Nation or other right wing ratbags.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6082150/it-horrifies-me-greens-in-fight-of-their-lives-to-keep-seats/?cs=14350
Even for Australian politics, last week was unusually gaffe-prone and bizarre, writes James Fitzgerald.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/policy-confusion-and-weirdness-abounds-in-first-week-of-election-campaiging,12599
Sean Kelly wonders if someone will crack in the remaining weeks of the campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/cat-meet-pigeons-the-coming-angst-for-morrison-and-shorten-20190421-p51fwz.html
The Department of Home Affairs is facing accusations of underpaying staff in a case filed in the Federal Circuit Court last week.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6080220/home-affairs-in-court-over-alleged-underpayment/?cs=14350
Richard Whitington writes that we shouldn’t overcook Cook by recreating a circumnavigation he never made.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/let-s-not-overcook-cook-by-recreating-a-circumnavigation-he-never-made-20190419-p51flp.html
With the rise of the misuse of the internet, Paul Budde believes that governments and industry must cooperate to better regulate it.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/fake-news-election-interference-and-discrimination-managing-social-media,12598
Paul Chadwick explains why the Australian court ban on reporting George Pell’s trial was bound to fail.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/21/australia-court-ban-george-pell-trial-fail-media-law
Nick O’Malley writes that the Christchurch terrorist attack has prompted an unprecedented surge in online activity by white supremacists as well as a call by a group with Islamic State links for attacks on Australians travelling in Indonesia, according to ongoing analysis by an American intelligence firm.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/unprecedented-surge-of-online-extremism-after-christchurch-20190420-p51fss.html
It’s really kicked off in Sri Lanka with more that 200 dead after coordinated church and hotel bombings. My brother’s brother-in-law and sister-in-law had left one of the hotels just an hour before it happened.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/scores-hurt-in-sri-lanka-easter-church-bombings-20190421-p51fyn.html
Now there are claims that Boeing’s plant making the 787 Dreamliner is plagued by shoddy production and weak oversight.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/i-never-plan-to-fly-on-it-boeing-workers-blow-whistle-on-787-plant-20190421-p51fza.html
The stunning Sarah Sanders admits she lied but it’s OK.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sanders-slip-of-the-tongue-would-be-a-problem-in-some-white-houses-not-trump-s-20190420-p51ftc.html
Robert Reich says that it is Trump’s moral squalor, not impeachment, that will remove him from power.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/21/donald-trump-impeachment-white-house-2020
Cartoon Corner
Pat Campbell is unconvinced by election promises.
Matt Golding.
Zanetti’s back on the PC bandwagon.
An Easter contribution from Glen Le Lievre.
Sean Leahy and the political dangers of Adani.
Alan Moir and Morrison’s water problems.
A rather pathetic effort from Johannes Leak.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b87cfc20d3b5196c52ddf16434395af6?width=1024
Peter Martin provides the core problems of Watergate:
On Twitter
Do we have his opinion on climate change on record? Seriously? Or does he prevaricate when questioned?
Quiet here this morning.
Did the regulars have too many Easter eggs?
Not even fun for a lurker.
Gambling really has entrenched itself when a politics blog has a whole post devoted to it.
My heart bleeds.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/capitalism-in-crisis-us-billionaires-worry-about-the-survival-of-the-system-that-made-them-rich/2019/04/20/3e06ef90-5ed8-11e9-bfad-36a7eb36cb60_story.html?utm_term=.2edafcad6579
It seems it is the media’s self interest which is in delusional hope that the libs/nats will be re-elected,
The national and Liberal partys have given up when you look what is happening in this campaign, Morrison and the liberal party are not trying to win any labor seats , they are confined in trying to save the liberal party held seat with 5% or above
I wager we’ll look back on ScoMo’s decision to let cameras witness this happy-clappy, jump-4-Jesus weirdness as the 2019 handshake moment.
Journalists on twitter whinging like babies because they don’t like being criticised.
HINT: grow up! You ar not special any more, never were!
I told you so that our great LNP are on the way back to claim victory on May 18 and to form government as ALP have blown there chance now shorten must to the honorable thing and resign before the ALP are smashed at the ballot box….,
@Wayne you were talking about a poll not betting.
Good morning , William
lizzie:
[‘Do we have his opinion on climate change on record? Seriously? Or does he prevaricate when questioned?’]
The somewhat obsequious CPG need to ask the hard questions.
lefty_e
Scrott may well .The political editor of Rupertville’s The Hun on a panel on Sky last night had a battle to be diplomatic when talking about it. Although I think he used the words ‘seriously weird’ when talking about what many people think of Scrott’s flavor of christianity 😆
Thanks BA. David Wroe article on Watergate is very interesting. The media have really grabbed hold of this one. Barnyard is quoted as saying he did as much as he could to AVOID buybacks because they hurt communities, then govt paid way over the odds for floodwater. Wow.
No I’m talking about the betting markets they have the coalition winning Bass Braddon Herbert Lindsey…….
Then you have insider trading then that is illegal:D
C@t: “Gambling really has entrenched itself when a politics blog has a whole post devoted to it”
Agreed – not a good look. William’s standards have certainly fallen off in recent years. AFL and other sports are increasingly unwatchable these days due to their marriage with gambling, as well. It shows how much our society has declined.
Morning all. Thanks BK. Not much said over the weekend so not much political reporting.
However you can always rely on an LNP senate hopeful to say something weird. Rennick is an old boy of Toowoomba private school Downlands College, and has been a tax accountant for Rio Tinto. Who needs child care?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-22/gerard-rennick-liberal-party-queensland-senate-conspiracies/11034682
Seriously where do they get these guys from? Do they realise how they appear?
What keeps me going (other than St.Kilda’s form defying all the media predictions!)
1. Looking forward to the recriminations in the Coalition post May 18th, and Abbott’s grab for the leadership
2. Reading The Australian on May 20th – like I enjoy reading the write-ups of St.Kilda’s matches by the media writers who have written them off before that very same game.
3. Mainly – a return to a government actually interested in governing and implementing useful policy. The last six years, and especially the last eight months since Morrison’s coup, have been a blight on Australia
Rocket Rocket @ #22 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:04 am
Knock Knock, RR.
@Wayne…where is this new seat of Lindsey……?
I am labor voter but will not believe that they will win till Morrison stops is lies about there tax policy and other policies they have….
It looks like Murdoch hacks have been told to ramp up the anti Labor rhetoric or else. Hence the Oz landing page today, a sight to behold.
So Murdoch’s SmearStralian has not a word on #watergate – despite statements by Labor and the Greens, and most other media outlets covering.
Not a word in the so-called journal of record – whatever shred of credibility this biased propaganda sheet has had is flushed away. This is the tactic of the kennel mate FoxNews in the USA – news which is negative to their man (and it is always a man) is ignored, like it didn’t happen – gaslighting.
And what should the Smear be reporting? Well their similarly right wing aligned Australian Financial Review, who’s editor is the father of the President of the NSW Young Liberals, has this simple item..
‘PM faces more questions on water
Scott Morrison can expect further questioning on the coalition’s handling of the Murray-Darling Basin plan when he returns to the campaign trail on Monday.’
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/pm-faces-more-questions-on-water-20190421-p51g03
Rocket:
I reckon we can all say we’re looking forward to the last one. 🙂
Morrison attending his Church with cameras in attendance is a question of judgement and taste.
Cleraly, Morrison is feeling some kick back from non-believers and others about his brand of religious observance. Seeing him there doing what he normally does with pictures of other middle class Australians doing the same normalizes his behaviour in the eyes of some.
Of course the haters and bigots are going to continue being haters and bigots. But, I suppose Morrison calculates he’s never going to get their approval or vote anyway.
Personally, i wouldn’t do what Morrison has done. My personal religious observance is between me and my maker and I see no particular need to be using that relationship to prove anything to any one else. Further, i’d never use my attendance at Church to further any broader agenda whether it be commercial or social.
At the end of the day, Morrison has the right to attend his Church of choice and practice his beliefs as he chooses to do. Equally, I assess the man politically on the views espoused and actions taken in the broader world.
GG
That’s the “normal” reaction. Unfortunately Morrison is very different. 🙂
Liberals knowingly tweeted something that is fraudulent but still did it the second time.
Tim Watts MP:
Now former Lib MPs and TV hosts are sharing the photoshopped fake tweet about the fake tax….
Wayne @ #11 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:44 am
I thought there was no campaigning yesterday. Yet Morrison used his religion to grab a headline.
Rules don’t apply to Tories, obviously.
Given that I am predicting about a 2.5 to 3% swing to Labor come election day. I am expecting the Coalition to pick up a seat or two, despite losing around 15 seats or so (I predict Labor will pick up between 10 and 15 seats). This is because Tony Abbott will lose in Warringah, also with seats such as Farrer and Parkes possibly being lost as well to minor party or Independent candidates.
Wayne @ #18 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:55 am
Burgey @ #33 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:21 am
There was vision of Shorten attending an Anglican service in Brisbane.
Burgey @ #33 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:21 am
You have to admit, there was a photo of Bill, Chloe, the kids and the M-I-L going to church in Brisbane as well. Nowhere near as seriously weird though. 🙂
If they need to remind the religious fundamentalists to vote Liberal then they really are in a spot of bother. Otherwise nobody whose votes matter will have noticed or care.
Snap! GG.
Also, to add to your point about letting the cameras into the Evo church service, it’s part of their modus operandi, to show out to the world, to evangelise their faith openly to the world and let everyone know how fantastic it is, so that they can suck more people in with their bells and whistles and lamo rock bands. 🙂
They say that that’s one of the reasons the Catholic and Anglican Churches lose out to them in the 21st century, the evangelical churches aren’t afraid to use all the multimedia tools at their disposal to rope more followers in.
@msRose2343 twitter:
Dear Lordt,
Please forgive me for standing in front of Westmead hospital yesterday and using sick ppl for a photo op while knowing that I have cut $12 million of that hospital’s funding. Oh shabadabadabadaba.
Amen #auspol
Zoidlord,
You’d think that the ACTU and Sally McManus would be able to report the account to Twitter which released the original dodged up Tweet and get it banned. It’s probably an egg though.
Lizzie
“Do we have his opinion on climate change on record? Seriously? Or does he prevaricate when questioned?”
Good question. I have just been looking back as far as ScumMo’s maiden speech in parliament (soon after the popularity of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth) and have not found any speech where ScumMo acknowledges that anthropegenic global warming is a reality. He refers to obligations to meet Paris targets like a homework task, but I really don’t think he believes it.
Incidentally in his maiden speech he referred to his christianity (two bible quotes), small business (no taxes!) and compassion and generosity. He said Australia should increase foreign aid, noting his own budgets cut it.
So there is a cynical streak in ScumMo, but opposing climate change action seems to be genuine apathy.
@jaquix173:
‘Gladys Liu is right’: Liberal Special Minister of State Alex Hawke endorses Gladys Liu’s LGBTI comments, says SafeSchools program was “written by an actual communist’. Where do they find these dinosaurs?
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/gladys-liu-is-right-liberal-minister-endorses-candidate-s-controversial-lgbti-comments-20190420-p51ftf.html
citizen @ #26 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:08 am
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
The Alice Workman of some notoriety has found a place to suit her talents with
I realize that pages on a screen are not suitable for toilet paper – I’m just so dismayed and upset that the Holden Ute parked across the road from my place has disappeared overnight. The black helicopters obviously now electric airships and the Shorten Tradies Undermining Bandits have silently done their work. At last I understand the reality of the cleverly camouflaged sedan cruising the neighbourhood last week. A scouting party no less.
I think I need to take my morning medication.
Hand me the Anti-depressants please Muriel.
☮ ☕
C@tmomma
The one was posted other day was deleted so I am assuming so, but the REAL problem is that Liberals and tv hosts are reposting those links.
It would be interesting to know how many people at the Shire church yesterday were uncomfortable that Morrison was essentially using them as props for his own political campaign. Surely they don’t all vote for him.
Barney_Joyce Twitter:
It is a shame that Nixon could be more tolerant of communist than the ARU is of Israel Folau
Confessions @ #7 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:32 am
Plus this:
Elizabeth Knight tells us that big business concerns reflect their belief that the economy is increasingly fragile and that Labor’s policies might tip the scales.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-big-business-won-t-say-publicly-about-a-labor-victory-20190418-p51fcr.html
Suggests a co-ordinated move by the global ‘Captains of Industry’ to mount a rearguard action to try and save their Dodgy Brothers Neoliberal charabanc from going off the rails.
Zoidlord @ #45 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:36 am
Every time it goes up a complaint must be lodged. Labor must lodge a complaint about the SAD Coalition boosters using it too. Sally McManus and the ACTU must monitor Twitter for it.
Zoidlord @ #47 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:40 am
Because you really should be quoting Richard Nixon to support your argument. 😆