Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Mr Newbie says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:12 pm

    B. S. Fairman:

    According to her website, Gladys Liu, “After completing her Bachelor of Applied Science degree at La Trobe University in 1988, she worked as a speech pathologist in the state Department of Education from 1989 to 2004.”

    Her degree would have been from the former Lincoln Institute of Health Sciences, then, not La Trobe as she claims. Lincoln didn’t become part of La Trobe until 1989, I’m pretty sure – it could have been 1988, but even then, she would have studied her degree predominantly at Lincoln.

    edit – it was 1988 that Lincoln amalgamated with La Trobe.

    It’s all about the name of the Institution when you graduate.

    I did a two year Dip. Applied Science at the TSIT in Launceston.

    The only connection I had with the University of Tasmania during my time there was when a group of us traveled down to Hobart to see Billy Bragg.

    Yet my diploma is from the University of Tasmania.

    After my final year TSIT amalgamated with the University of Tasmania, so all awards were issued as the University of Tasmania.

    So, her case I’d imagine would be similar.

    She’s still seems like a RWFW, but she’d just be quoting the Institution’s name on the award, so no porkies.

  2. nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:44 pm
    Someone on Sky claiming that there’s a poll out soon indicating a liberal surge in northern Tassie.
    nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:44 pm
    So that’s Bass and Braddon.
    nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:47 pm
    I think he said 54-46 to the libs in one of those seats.

    Seat polls, bah!
    Or possibly Liberal “internal polling”, which would be even less reliable. Like when Turnbull talked up winning Werriwa in 2016. Or the Victorian Liberals said that Daniel Andrews was in trouble in his own seat last November.

    Meanwhile, according to Kevin Bonham’s Twitter:
    Not sure yet whose poll this is (commissioning source or pollster). In 2016 all five #Bass polls underestimated Labor’s 2PP by at least five points, and there is a history of federal ReachTELs usually skewing to Coalition in Tasmania. #politas

  3. nath @ #741 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:47 pm

    I think he said 54-46 to the libs in one of those seats.

    And pigs fly – There will be no Coalition seats in Tasmania again after this election. You can take that to the bank. The State Liberal Government is on the nose big time down here for a start and ALP internal polling says the opposite Nath. Dream on my friend.

  4. If Scummo addresses 100 people and makes a deliberately misleading statement, probably 5 in the audience would definately know what the true situation is. The remaining 95 would accept the data in good faith if it came from such a reliable source.
    If one of the five questions the statement, Scummo says they are wrong then diverts the conversation to another controversial topic.
    There are so many statements being made on an almost daily basis that I wouldn’t believe anything he says prior to independant corroboration.
    I will be watching his associates to see if it a deliberate L/NP strategy. When Trump is your role model, it should not end well.

  5. EB
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 11:27 pm
    nath @ #741 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:47 pm
    I think he said 54-46 to the libs in one of those seats.

    And pigs fly – There will be no Coalition seats in Tasmania again after this election. You can take that to the bank. The State Liberal Government is on the nose big time down here for a start and ALP internal polling says the opposite Nath. Dream on my friend.
    __________________________________
    You mistake my reportage for partisanship.

  6. Seat polls in Tasmania have been shockers before, all skewed to Coalition. Here is Kevin Bonham

    Kevin Bonham

    @kevinbonham
    Following Following @kevinbonham
    More Kevin Bonham Retweeted Rohanct
    Not sure yet whose poll this is (commissioning source or pollster). In 2016 all five #Bass polls underestimated Labor’s 2PP by at least five points, and there is a history of federal ReachTELs usually skewing to Coalition in Tasmania. #politas

  7. Pegasus:

    You re trying hard for a gotcha that doesnt exist.

    It wasn’t a ‘gotcha’. I was questioning whether her claim of studying at La Trobe was factually correct.

    It wouldn’t really be relevant even if she was claiming her degree was conferred at the wrong institution, as it’s still the same degree.

  8. According to the history Lincoln amalgamated with La Trobe by legislation passed in 1987.

    Yes. Passed in 1987, amalgamated on 1 January 1988.

  9. It’s all about the name of the Institution when you graduate.

    I’m aware of that. My (wrong) recollection was that it happened in 1989, hence why I initially questioned it.

    That being said, there is still a handbook for 1989 branded ‘Lincoln Institute of Health Sciences’, which also added to my initial confusion.

  10. Watching the repeat of Q and A. What is more attractive than an attractive woman > An intelligent woman. What is more attractive than a an attractive, intelligent woman. A woman with a heart who only looks down at people to help them get up. Larissa Waters and Terri Butler – may they win their way back in the Parliament and teach us blokes a thing or two about smart politics.

  11. The main difference between the parties and campaigns is that Morrison thinks he can win with a “presidential” approach that says “look at me, and ignore the mess of my party” and Labor is very much about the team with a competent leader. Even with a media looking for gotcha moments, Shorten can trust all of his front bench to do pressers well. The LNP can seemingly only let Morrison, Frydenberg, and to a lesser extent Birmingham and Hunt in front of the media. (but abbott and dutton keep freelancing, which is great). Their recent pick of ‘talent’ to go on Q&A shows how horrible their choices are (figuratively and literally)

  12. Libs lead 54-46 in Bass. PV are 42.8 Libs and 32.6 Labor. Forestry is rated by 80% of those polled as an important issue by Bass voters. Billy you are in all sorts here.

  13. Forestry’s not even on the radar as an issue in Tasmania at the moment, but I suspect AFPA want to keep it that way.

    Poll is a uComms commissioned by Australian Forests Products Association. Can’t find full primaries but reports are at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/new-poll-lifts-liberals-hopes-in-tasmanias-bass/news-story/a7145b54ce0b822624d96aa7cc49af16 and https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/federal-election-2019-new-ucomm-polling-commissioned-by-australian-forest-products-association-shows-liberals-tipped-to-take-bass/news-story/99a1eb1e5bdf84639416a884f9ff5bbd

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