Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Thank you William for the update – we election tragics love your work. Did Johnny Howard pull off an election win in the face of 3 years of poor polls, I THINK he must have come close to at least once.

  2. Notre Dame fire will overwhelm election coverage today.

    The odds on the Coalition at 4.75 to 5.00 seem to indicate a worsening position. I know betting odds are not that reliable but surely some confident backers must salivate at those odds and the profit to be made.

  3. Thanks William. An early good morning all. I thought the desperate performance by James McGrath on QandA last night was a sure sign of panic in the Liberals. It perfectly illustrated the electoral wedge they have created for themselves. McGrath does not want to disown Adani or Dutton to appease Qld backers, yet they and his own antics are electoral poison in NSW, SA and Vic.

    To be fair, Larissa Waters was good as well. While PHON voters will not switch to the Greens it must mean one less competitor for sixth spotss.

  4. EB @ #1 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:28 am

    Thank you William for the update – we election tragics love your work. Did Johnny Howard pull off an election win in the face of 3 years of poor polls, I THINK he must have come close to at least once.

    He certainly came back from ‘Mr 18%, Why Does He Bother?’ territory to win and reign for a dozen years.

  5. Rocket Rocket @ #2 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:32 am

    Notre Dame fire will overwhelm election coverage today.

    The odds on the Coalition at 4.75 to 5.00 seem to indicate a worsening position. I know betting odds are not that reliable but surely some confident backers must salivate at those odds and the profit to be made.

    Mr Bowe does a fine analysis of the odds above. 🙂

  6. The roof and spire of Notre Dame are gone. Two years into a ten year restoration aimed at preventing the 850 year old building collapsing – seems the whole structure will likely collapse . I am no engineer but I would imagine once you lose all the buttressing of the ceiling that the sides will fall inwards.

  7. EB @ #1 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:28 am

    Thank you William for the update – we election tragics love your work. Did Johnny Howard pull off an election win in the face of 3 years of poor polls, I THINK he must have come close to at least once.

    Well yes BUT he had 9/11 (one giant f’ing black swan event equivalent to Pearl Harbor), and brown people in boats, Scotty, not so much, in fact, a reverse black swan event (Christchurch)… 😡

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers and what a fine political specimen James McGrath showed himself to be on Q and A last night!
    And it looks like The Australian and the Adelaide Advertiser have found a way to nobble Outline.

    In breaking news a major fire has broken out at the medieval Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, destroying one of France’s most treasured monuments. Live coverage here.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/15/notre-dame-cathedral-fire-paris-france-landmark-live-news
    Harriet Alexander reports that a contest over two little girls, the women who raised them and the elder child’s biological father has framed the terms for a showdown over what it means to be a parent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/high-court-to-decide-if-a-sperm-donor-can-be-a-parent-20190415-p51e9s.html
    Michelle Grattan explains how Labor has weaponised Peter Dutton for its election campaign.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-peter-dutton-labors-not-so-secret-weapon-against-hunt-and-sukkar-115474
    Greg Jericho tells us that during the election campaign the government is going to make a great deal about its economic management. And yet, while the story on jobs is certainly good, on other measures it has very little to boast about. The chart on real average male full-time weekly earnings is telling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/16/the-coalition-boasts-about-economic-management-wheres-the-evidence
    Shane Wright reveals how the vast majority of the tens of billions of dollars the Coalition has vowed to funnel into “congestion busting” road and rail projects will not be spent until after the next federal election, prompting criticism that the Morrison government is claiming credit for infrastructure it may never deliver.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/promise-now-build-later-majority-of-30-billion-infrastructure-plan-won-t-be-spent-in-next-four-years-20190415-p51e7w.html
    The social services minister, Paul Fletcher, has again dismissed calls to increase Newstart, saying the government’s current policy is “appropriate”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/15/coalitions-newstart-policy-appropriate-and-no-extra-rise-needed-minister-says
    The company at the centre of a catastrophic scaffolding collapse at Macquarie Park that resulted in the death of one man is being sued over a separate incident in which scaffolding allegedly fell and struck a worker on the north shore. What, if anything, will screecher Cash say about this?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/labourer-takes-company-to-court-over-construction-site-accident-20190411-p51da2.html
    The audio of an 2016 interview with Gladys Liu, now the Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Chisholm, has been released after she questioned the accuracy of comments she made to the writer of a Guardian article.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/15/liberal-candidates-fake-reporting-claim-prompts-release-of-interview
    Here’s Neil McMahon’s recap on last night’s Q and A which was another Coalition train wreck,
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/q-and-a-recap-james-mcgrath-s-one-way-trip-to-crazy-town-20190416-p51eh2.html
    There may be multiple trials involving prominent news editors and journalists as they face contempt of court charges, the likes of which have never been seen in Australia’s legal history. Thirty-six media outlets, editors and journalists, including staff at The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, could face prison over allegations they breached a suppression order in reports published after Cardinal George Pell was convicted of child sex abuse charges.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/multiple-trials-possible-over-pell-contempt-case-20190415-p51e81.html
    Michael Koziol writes about the tough time Morrison had in Melbourne yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/such-a-bubble-question-haunted-by-dutton-scott-morrison-dodges-liberal-leadership-demons-20190415-p51e8p.html
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-rugby-man-in-the-football-state-liberals-cling-to-hope-in-the-massachusetts-of-australia-20190415-p51edt.html
    A cynical Shane Wright talks about the out years of the major parties’ plans.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/promises-of-the-never-never-in-campaign-for-dogs-20190414-p51e3m.html
    And the AFR explains that the government would need to cut spending by $40 billion a year by 2030 to afford its big personal income tax cuts and deliver on its budget surplus forecasts.
    https://www.outline.com/vrcppJ
    Labor says it will spend $200 million to boost pathology services for the elderly and people diagnosed with cancer.
    https://www.outline.com/dnkSsR
    Jacqui Maley reports that the conservative activist group Advance Australia has been accused of sexism and poor taste after it released a video of its “satirical superhero” Captain GetUp gyrating and rubbing against a poster of independent Warringah candidate Zali Steggall.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/zali-steggall-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-set-standards-after-release-of-sexualised-video-20190415-p51e7m.html
    “If our government wants to lift the birth rate then why aren’t we doing more to ease the financial burden of raising a family?”, asks Jamila Rizvi.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-isn-t-the-government-doing-more-to-help-millennials-afford-kids-20190412-p51dln.html
    Cara Walters reports that an Australian startup is looking to disrupt the booming solar industry with its locally designed and manufactured removable panels. The company, Solpod, has developed a new way of mounting solar panels on the roofs of commercial and industrial buildings that address some of the barriers businesses have faced in switching to solar photovoltaic power.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/australian-designed-solar-panel-firm-looks-to-shake-up-booming-sector-20190415-p51ecp.html
    In a concerning contribution Peter Hartcher warns us that the reason digital assistants such as Alexa, Google Assistant and Siri exist is not to assist you. They exist to make money for Amazon, Google and Apple. The big Japanese investment bank Mizuho predicts that these digital assistants will generate $US11 billion a year by next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/welcome-to-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism-20190415-p51edn.html
    A nice interview with Chloe Shorten here by Jamila Rizvi.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6053904/chloe-shorten-i-keep-myself-firmly-planted-in-the-now/?cs=14350
    Peter FitzSimons writes about how he handles social media trolls,
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-three-rules-to-beat-the-trolls-20190415-p51eeh.html
    For all you masochists out there here is Amanda Vanstone’s contribution to the tax debate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-plans-will-hurt-many-people-who-aren-t-rich-at-all-20190413-p51dto.html
    Most Sydneysiders are more often than not better off renting rather than buying a home and investing that money elsewhere, a new study finds.
    https://www.outline.com/9zsGqU
    Elizabeth Knight tells us that with the shareholder vote looming on Australia’s biggest packaging deal to date – Amcor’s takeover of US-based Bemis – the research team from CLSA has raised a red flag about the conventional wisdom of the $7 billion union.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/is-creating-the-biggest-packaging-company-worth-the-7b-price-20190415-p51edc.html
    Following the Hayne inquiry, AMP has fallen the furthest in the Reputation Institute’s annual ranking and now sits with the big four banks among the worst performers.
    https://www.outline.com/4PBJVN
    Australia’s two biggest supermarkets are trialling new technologies to clamp down on shoplifting and incorrect scanning of items by shoppers using self-service checkouts.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2019/04/15/coles-woolworths-self-service-checkout-theft/
    Joanne McCarthy is still doing a great job in uncovering the dark history of institutionalised child sexual abuse.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/child-sex-offender-given-top-welfare-job-despite-history-of-allegations-20190415-p51e8n.html
    Idiot Trump has blamed the Fed for US economic growth not running at 4 per cent and the US share market not being 10,000 points higher.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-lashes-fed-as-his-plan-to-install-two-fans-on-the-board-misfires-20190415-p51e9d.html
    It looks like the Mueller report might ne released on Thursday.
    https://www.outline.com/ydf7kG

    Cartoon Corner

    Health politics with David Rowe.

    From Matt Golding.



    On the election bus with David Pope.

    Cathy Wilcox hits home here!

    Sean Leahy has a couple for us today.

    From the US






  9. If you were a Queenslander, who and what would you be voting for?

    The party who wants to destroy the Great Barrier Reef for a few dollars more (and likely not in your pocket)?

    Or the party who will (yes, along with The Greens, if they are sensible) do their best to save it?

    There’s not much pride to be had having the relatives visit from overseas and all you’ve got to show them is a bunch of dead, white coral where The Great Barrier Reef used to be.

  10. After a rare sighting of the endangered Sukkar in the wild yesterday I checked the odds – and Labor is 1.60 in Deakin to the Liberals 2.20.

    Funny to see the Liberals desperately targeting Labor’s female candidates specifically in the posters someone posted last night.

    Shorten Morris will be an excellent addition to the Parliament.

  11. ‘Redacted to shreds’: Internet outraged as DOJ says version of Mueller report won’t be released until Thursday

    Social media sites are exploding in outrage as the Dept. of Justice minutes ago sought to head off speculation by announcing a redacted version of the long-awaited Mueller report now will not be released to Congress until Thursday. Early last week Attorney General William Barr promised it would be available within a week, leading many to speculate it would have been out this past Friday or today at the latest.

    Of note, however, is that the DOJ will also release a version to the public on Thursday. It’s unclear currently if both versions will be the same.

    On MSNBC former Assistant Director for Counterintelligence at the FBI, Frank Figluzzi, just said experts believe 50% – 70% of the report will be redacted.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/redacted-shreds-internet-outraged-doj-says-version-mueller-report-wont-released-thursday/

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    BREAKING! Mueller report drops on Thursday mornin’! Just in time to be drowned out by Passover, Easter and a Congressional recess.

    The ultimate day for the ultimate cover-up.

  12. Thanks BK for your usual excellent contribution.

    This fire at Notre Dame is awful. Such a beautiful, historic building at the heart of arguably the most perfectly designed and built city in the world.

    Absolutely breaks my heart to wake up to this news. Been there since the 12th century. Survived revolutions and wars. Only to burn like this. A genuine historic and architectural tragedy.

  13. I am surprised that a desperate IS has not (yet) claimed responsibility for the Notre Dame fire. Maybe they saw that the Taliban’s cause got more enemies worldwide when they blew up those two statues of Buddha.

  14. Fozzie Logic @ #7 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:36 am

    EB @ #1 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:28 am

    Thank you William for the update – we election tragics love your work. Did Johnny Howard pull off an election win in the face of 3 years of poor polls, I THINK he must have come close to at least once.

    Well yes BUT he had 9/11 (one giant f’ing black swan event equivalent to Pearl Harbor), and brown people in boats, Scotty, not so much, in fact, a reverse black swan event (Christchurch)… 😡

    –thanks FOZZ

  15. Jacqui Maley reports that the conservative activist group Advance Australia has been accused of sexism and poor taste after it released a video of its “satirical superhero” Captain GetUp gyrating and rubbing against a poster of independent Warringah candidate Zali Steggall.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/zali-steggall-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-set-standards-after-release-of-sexualised-video-20190415-p51e7m.html
    From the BK Files (thanx again BK)

    This moron is top of my April Bring-Back -Tony award and must be rating as BK’s ass… of the week. Really. I mean really this is the 21st Century ffs.

  16. Thanks BK. Good to see the MSM are finally pointing out that ScumMo is promising spending on infrastructure projects up to ten years away. His “record infrastructure spend:” is only a record in the sense that he is announcing the value of the forward pipeline over a record number of years (10). In the past the standard approach was just to announce in the budget what was in the next four years. In some cases (e.g. Geelong HSR) the project has not even had planning studies completed.

    The fact is, most of the major infrastructure projects currently under way are the results of the efforts of the NSW, Vic, WA and Qld governments. SA work is in decline. Not even much planning is under way.

  17. The Notre Dame fire is tragic in architectural and cultural terms. The walls have huge buttresses that will stop then collapsing. But the roof and towers are gone or in big trouble if the timber frames are burning. It could take days for the other tower fires to complete, at which point I fear they may come down too.

  18. I’ve never thought much of the “smart money” in the past and don’t think I’ll think too much of it in this election.

    The Coalition have done a great job to make this close if it is indeed close.

  19. One final comment. I heard in passing a bizarre interview yesterday midday between Melissa Parkes and the ABC. She made some quite odd references to the costs of cancer treatments needed by “half of all Australians” as though half of us have cancer now. Quite odd. Her subsequent comments about the budget and costs also made no sense. Have a good day all.

  20. It’s the old story – look not only at what they’re saying but where they’re going to say it. Morrison desperately sandbagging seats on 5-6% in Victoria is not a great sign for the Libs.

  21. “Le Monde” seems to be more hopeful that the whole structure won’t collapse if my French is anything to rely on.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/live/2019/04/15/en-direct-un-important-incendie-est-en-cours-dans-la-cathedrale-notre-dame-de-paris_5450550_3224.html

    Incendie de Notre-Dame, en direct : la structure de la cathédrale « est sauvée et préservée dans sa globalité »

    (Fire of Notre Dame, live : The Cathedral structure is saved and preserved in its entirety)

    What about Quasimodo, the Hunchback of Notre-Dame – didn’t he live in one of the towers?

  22. Socrates @ #22 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:04 am

    One final comment. I heard in passing a bizarre interview yesterday midday between Melissa Parkes and the ABC. She made some quite odd references to the costs of cancer treatments needed by “half of all Australians” as though half of us have cancer now. Quite odd. Her subsequent comments about the budget and costs also made no sense. Have a good day all.

    Melissa Parkes, ALP, or Melissa Price, Liberal Party doofus Anti Environment Minister in the Morrison government?

  23. I am predicting that Labor will win between 52-53% of the two party preferred vote on election day. That will mean them winning between 82 and 87 seats, although the swings are going to vary considerably as well. Also I predict quite a number of hard right Coalition MP’s are going to lose their seats as well.

  24. I hope the relics are saved as Notre Dame. Amongst others, it houses the Crown of Thorns.

    I only raise this as i know many of you will be concerned, especially yabba 🙂

  25. Trioli managed to control Roberts in QandA, but James McGrath was virtually uncontrollable. He shouted and even tried to wave that silly little pamphlet to prove that Labor would steal all our money.

    I would have liked Terri Butler to have given a better answer on “where’s the money coming from?” as she allowed McGrath to get away with the “higher taxes” accusation. I also find her mellifluous tones difficult to listen to, but her calm in contrast to the shouter beside her was laudable. Larissa was also calm and steady and made her points well.

    The three women definitely won the evening.

  26. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    4h4 hours ago
    So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!

  27. Laocoon
    Hi there! Kenneth Clark’s “Civilisation” and Bronowski’s “Th Ascent of Man” were two seminal and ageless contributions.

  28. To journos complaining about their treatment by Morrison.

    Andrew Catsaras @AndrewCatsaras

    Then get off the bus and tell @ScottMorrisonMP where to stick it. Can you imagine Alan Ramsey, Kerry O’Brien or @LaurieOakes putting up with this crap? And you still posted his photos?

  29. BK: “I’d have to say that James McGrath carried on like an unregistered dog last night!”

    An unregistered rabid dog by the sound of it.

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