Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. B. S. Fairman:

    Gladys Liu was a speech pathologist….. I couldn’t pick that from the recording.

    Listening to the audio excerpts on the Guardian article, it is interesting that she doesn’t seem to know even the correct term of ‘transgender’. I’m not sure where she studied, but if it was in Australia, transgender voice issues (i.e. the issues male-to-female transgender people in particular have with using a convincingly feminine-sounding voice, for which they may consult a speech pathologist) are touched upon (albeit not a major focus) as part of the curriculum when studying voice problems.

  2. “one of the most disadvantaged schools in Victoria. One teacher described the area as ‘lower working class’.”

    Of course that was before chiropractors were paying 1.5 million for a workers cottage.

  3. Now some flog just suggested we need to go back to having the same immigration policies that we had in the 40s and 50s and only accept people “like us”. Nope. I can’t watch this shit anymore.

  4. Swampy, take it easy pal. It’s been centuries since Thomas Aquinas was flying around. And good luck to him, it must have been a real thrill.

  5. WRT Notre Dame: I hope the restoration includes audial architecture.

    Reposting this : The BBC Symph restaging Ralph Vaughan Williams celestial polyphonic masterpiece Fantasia on a theme of Thomas Tallis in Gloucester Cathedral – where he conducted the first performance in 1910. The orchestra is divided into three groups using the acoustics of the cathedral as an integral part of the music. This is as close to the sublime as I can get.

    My parent’s claimed that hearing Faure’s Requiem performed in Notre Dame in 1962 was their apotheosis. They may well be right.

  6. Leyonhjelm admits that much of his success can be attributed to people confusing his party with the “Liberals”! What can one say. Now he gets to enjoy the next phase in his life: defendant in a defamation case.

  7. nath

    I am sorry, i consider you a western hypocritical liberal … no intellectual consistency.

    You have only one mode… get back to me when you post a csimilar ontempt of another religion.

  8. swamprat
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:00 pm
    nath
    I am sorry, i consider you a western hypocritical liberal … no intellectual consistency.
    You have only one mode… get back to me when you post a csimilar ontempt of another religion.
    ____________________________________________
    I’m an atheist. All religions are false and it would be much better for all their adherents if they adopted secular humanism.

  9. Bree @ #672 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:17 pm

    Looks like Shorten had his birthday cake moment today, with that journalist destroying him at that press conference today. All down hill for Labor from here, Shorten is a Bill that Australia can’t afford.

    To which Shorten will learn to reply (if he’s smart) “our tax cuts are bigger, better and fairer than the Liberals’, and anything you hear to the contrary is a filthy lie”.

  10. According to her website, Gladys Liu, “After completing her Bachelor of Applied Science degree at La Trobe University in 1988, she worked as a speech pathologist in the state Department of Education from 1989 to 2004.”

  11. PB would be a lot better place if some people didn’t jump to assumptions about other contributors or make casual snarks about people they disagree with. The usual result is something of a flame war which produces a lot of heat and little light. There should be something of an ego equalisation process – but failing that we can surely learn to not respond in kind to people whose main intention is to provoke or put down.

  12. For the remarkably little it’s worth, I’ve never liked gothic architecture. Paris can do better. They should demolish the ruins of Notre Dame and start again.

  13. nath

    I’m an atheist. All religions are false and it would be much better for all their adherents if they adopted secular humanism.
    ——

    hilarious.

    I am an athiest too.

    But i have obsercved over the past twenty years or so and have yet to see a western “liberal” ever apply the same contempt to other religions.

    But i have wondered maybe “western” liberal straight men are partial to the masculine primacy of islam and see a benefit in purduh and subservience for women

  14. B. S. Fairman:

    According to her website, Gladys Liu, “After completing her Bachelor of Applied Science degree at La Trobe University in 1988, she worked as a speech pathologist in the state Department of Education from 1989 to 2004.”

    Her degree would have been from the former Lincoln Institute of Health Sciences, then, not La Trobe as she claims. Lincoln didn’t become part of La Trobe until 1989, I’m pretty sure – it could have been 1988, but even then, she would have studied her degree predominantly at Lincoln.

    edit – it was 1988 that Lincoln amalgamated with La Trobe.

  15. Naturally I did not mean to provoke a flame war poking a bit of fun at Thomas Aquinas and his claims of levitation. I had assumed that on PB that claims of humans flying would not be held in such a sacred fashion.

  16. briefly says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    For the remarkably little it’s worth, I’ve never liked gothic architecture. Paris can do better. They should demolish the ruins of Notre Dame and start again.
    ———

    I am so glad that briefly has reached his over-qualified status as a Western Australian yokel.

  17. One thing that disturbs me about the way the Liu woman is trying extricate herself from her own appalling lack of judgement and prejudices is the disconnection she portrays between her own obvious Chinese ethnicity, and her attribution of the existence of a supposed regressive Chinese group think, as if it’s a reality for all other Chinese, but not herself.

  18. nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:12 pm
    Naturally I did not mean to provoke a flame war poking a bit of fun at Thomas Aquinas and his claims of levitation. I had assumed that on PB that claims of humans flying would not be held in such a sacred fashion.
    —–

    yeah of cause we all believe that (sarcasm)

    I dont believe in Aquinas levitation, either.

    that is not the point.

    Get back to me when you demonstrate your light hearted contempt for islam.

  19. Having a discussion about the heritage significance of Notre Dame (as above) is a good way of showing the wide values of PB contributors which intellectual capacity is sometimes missing from more partisan exchanges.

    By the way has Clem Attlee become Clem or do we have 2 Clems now?

  20. I forgot about the Flying Nun! She certainly got some height. She may have even surpassed John of Cupertino, who held the altitude record for human flight. I think he could get up around 60 feet!

  21. swamprat
    says:
    Get back to me when you demonstrate your light hearted contempt for islam.
    __________________________________________
    I guess I am more comfortable poking a bit of fun at the Catholic Church because my family are ex Catholics. But sure, I’m willing to have a go at all of them once I get the ok from William. Over to you Big Fella.

  22. swamprat – I’m wondering if you think the cartoons by people in western countries a few years ago (and over the years) depicting negative images of Islam were a useful contribution to debate?

  23. Boer…..

    ….That said, they will be wanting to crank it back up to receiving 13 million visitors a year toute de suite. By way of comparison, the Australian War Memorial does not crack 2 million a year.

    Maybe we could do the gargoyles.

    We could let them have Abbott, Dutton, Bishop, Banks, Joyce and Hastie…and Bob Brown.

  24. nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:12 pm
    Naturally I did not mean to provoke a flame war poking a bit of fun at Thomas Aquinas and his claims of levitation. I had assumed that on PB that claims of humans flying would not be held in such a sacred fashion.

  25. swamprat says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:18 pm
    briefly says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    For the remarkably little it’s worth, I’ve never liked gothic architecture. Paris can do better. They should demolish the ruins of Notre Dame and start again.
    ———

    I am so glad that briefly has reached his over-qualified status as a Western Australian yokel.

    I’ll take that as a compliment. Cheers.

  26. Mr N

    She finished her degree in 1988 after 1 January don’t you think so she graduated from La Trobe Uni.

    You re trying hard for a gotcha that doesnt exist.

  27. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-16/mass-arrests-climate-change-activists-in-london-protests/11022720

    British police have arrested 113 people after climate change activists blocked some of London’s most famous roads in an attempt to force the Government to do more to tackle climate change.
    :::
    Extinction Rebellion, which generated headlines with a semi-nude protest in the House of Commons earlier this month, is leading the protests.

    The group is demanding the government declare a climate and ecological emergency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025.
    :::
    Extinction Rebellion said “over 100 brave rebels” had been arrested in total. It said protests would continue, with demonstrations in 33 countries around the world scheduled over the coming days.

  28. antonbruckner11 says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:13 pm
    briefly @ #718 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:10 pm

    For the remarkably little it’s worth, I’ve never liked gothic architecture. Paris can do better. They should demolish the ruins of Notre Dame and start again.

    It’s not a question of “liking” it.

    I don’t mind St. Peter’s or the Cistine Chapel. There is the gorgeous, intimate Sainte Chapelle, just off the Boulevarde St. Michel in the Palais de la Cite. But generally, I reckon we should move on from feudal times. These are relics. What sense does it make to restore a relic? The Gothic was about bringing the light of the heavens into the interior space – allowing the light of the deity to illuminate the otherwise darkened spaces of the man-built form – a progression from the Romanesque, which was low, darkened, enclosed and modest in scale. I really like the human proportions to be found in Romanesque forms.

    We can do a lot more with light these days. Engineering, construction technologies and materials, and consequently architecture in general, have evolved. Why not build a new statement about the relationship between the people and the heavens?

  29. George Monbiot

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/15/rebellion-prevent-ecological-apocalypse-civil-disobedience

    No one is coming to save us. Mass civil disobedience is essential to force a political response
    :::
    Those who govern the nation and shape public discourse cannot be trusted with the preservation of life on Earth. There is no benign authority preserving us from harm. No one is coming to save us. None of us can justifiably avoid the call to come together to save ourselves.
    :::
    Today, Extinction Rebellion takes to streets around the world in defence of our life-support systems. Through daring, disruptive, nonviolent action, it forces our environmental predicament on to the political agenda. Who are these people? Another “they”, who might rescue us from our follies? The success of this mobilisation depends on us. It will reach the critical threshold only if enough of us cast aside denial and despair, and join this exuberant, proliferating movement. The time for excuses is over. The struggle to overthrow our life-denying system has begun.

  30. Superannuation

    So referring to those making contributions to superannuation (apart from the proceeds of downsizing) of $250,000-

    And, obviously within the “cap” of $1.6 Million per account holder as introduced by this government

    So what numbers, in retirement, contribute over $200,000- as a lump sum to superannuation (the $200,000- Labor’s amount from $250,000- being the Liberal introduced amount)?

    Remember the $1.6 Million “cap” was introduced by this government in response to the advantage for those with significantly more than $1.6 Million – so for presentation purposes

    And in response to Labor presenting that an Allocated Pension being taxed at 15% when that Allocated Pension was over $100,000- (so if your Allocated Pension is $110,000- you pay $1,500- in tax being 15% on the $10,000- over the $100,000-)

    In fact, I think the government reacted to Labor (so not advantaging the “well off”)

    The $1.6 Million is per account holder – so both you and your spouse can have $1.6 Million

    Given the legislated 5% AP draw, for a couple with $1.6 Million each, the tax free income is $160,000- PA

    Then, in regards holdings outside superannuation, you can each enjoy another $21,000- PA because of the tax threshold and Senior allowances (and you can receive a Franking Credit for not having paid any tax)

    So an income of $200,000- between 2 spouses (before Franking Credits)

    And there would be a demographic out there who still consider $200,000- (or $250,000-) a lot of money (and particularly having that amount in hand to contribute to superannuation)

    And I will include that the circumstances I describe are pretty close to home (except Franking Credits are not availed of because we prefer Term Deposits paying monthly interest to Equities – and on the basis that income not wealth generation is the driver)

    So Ad Man from Mad Men is talking to my wife and me, about transferring either $200,000- or $250,000- to superannuation except we can not because of proximity to the $1.6 Million “cap”

    Neither my wife or I view ourselves as other than middle class – typical of Australians and their wealth apparently, from what you read

    But, equally I would understand that there are some who would consider us “rich” in a monetary sense – and that any advantage given to us by government is not warranted (which is our position anyway)

    So when Ad Man from Mad Men carries on about Shorten taxing, what is the impact of such claims on the average voting Australian?

    And are those jumping up and down and making such noise just greedy people with wealth?

    So is reference to $250,000- a turn off to the majority of Australians – noting the average holding in superannuation?

  31. I visited Notre Dame back in 2012. Queued early and one of the first in the door.
    Its quite impressive, but even so its a bit dark and stuffy inside. Not like the Sagrada Familia.
    Was also quite crowded both with visitors and regular church goings on.
    Amazing place. I hope it is even better when its repaired.

  32. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:52 pm
    Briefly, I am becoming concerned for you.

    The Talibanic sentiments you are expressing are, to say the least, worrisome.

    That’s very kind of you, FS.

    I visited a lot of gothic statements in my misspent youth. They always seemed to me to be at once very cold – they’re decorated with stone, of course – and to be designed with the intention of accentuating a great falsehood, being the omniscience and omnipotence of a supreme deity. These structures impose insignificance upon the humans that enter them. They are cold and hard lies. They elevate the institutional, the clerico-regal and the dogmatic above the human, and use all kinds of engineering, optical and aural tricks to do it.

    They signify centuries of repression, of taxation, of punishments and of deception.

  33. Peter Dutton comes out with a low hit on his Labor opponent, then says I am only repeating what some electors out there are saying. Then apologized.
    Gladys Liu comes out with a low blow on a sector of the community, then says I am only repeating what some electors are saying. What next?
    Both low life.

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