Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. “I am a staunch atheist yet I have an ‘artistic’ fascination for monumental architecture.”

    Likewise on both the belief front and the architecture, some of the best art and architecture I saw in Italy was in churches……monumental indeed.

  2. From today’s Crikey email, last night’s climate forum in Warringah turned up an empty chair. No prizes for guessing who.

    “Tonight, we have an empty chair on stage, I don’t think I need to tell you who it’s for,” says 14-year-old school climate strike leader Vivienne Paduch to knowing murmurs and encouraging hisses during her opening address. It’s not the last time an allusion to the sitting member for Warringah gets such response.

    Tony Abbott — along with the United Australia Party’s Suellen Wrightson, although that escapes mention — has skipped the Monday night climate change candidate forum, held at Mosman Art gallery, an exquisitely renovated and converted old Methodist church, crammed with about 250 people. It’s organised by the Stop Adani movement and Voices of Warringah, both of whom are explicitly running an “anyone but Tony” line. GetUp aren’t official organisers, but they have a little stall at the back. An ABC journo is walking around getting vox pops.

  3. jenauthor
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:34 pm
    I am a staunch atheist yet I have an ‘artistic’ fascination for monumental architecture.
    _____________________________
    I assume you mean aesthetic.

  4. NBN Price rise “Faster, Cheaper, Quicker”:

    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/optus-sets-85-a-month-as-its-new-entry-level-nbn-price-523912

    Anthony Galloway
    ‏ @Gallo_Ways
    25m25 minutes ago

    Exclusive: George Christensen spent more than $3000 of taxpayers’ money to subsidise his frequent private trips to the Philippines. Instead of going home from Canberra, he took five domestic flights to link up with his international jaunts https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/australian-taxpayers-subsidised-nationals-mp-george-christensens-private-trips-to-the-philippines/news-story/b656be72bcd0476f1c3aa6fa28b3267b … @theheraldsun

  5. Confessions @ #655 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:02 pm

    From today’s Crikey email, last night’s climate forum in Warringah turned up an empty chair. No prizes for guessing who.

    “Tonight, we have an empty chair on stage, I don’t think I need to tell you who it’s for,” says 14-year-old school climate strike leader Vivienne Paduch to knowing murmurs and encouraging hisses during her opening address. It’s not the last time an allusion to the sitting member for Warringah gets such response.

    Tony Abbott — along with the United Australia Party’s Suellen Wrightson, although that escapes mention — has skipped the Monday night climate change candidate forum, held at Mosman Art gallery, an exquisitely renovated and converted old Methodist church, crammed with about 250 people. It’s organised by the Stop Adani movement and Voices of Warringah, both of whom are explicitly running an “anyone but Tony” line. GetUp aren’t official organisers, but they have a little stall at the back. An ABC journo is walking around getting vox pops.

    Steggall has said numerous times she would not attend anything but publicly organised forums.

    This was a SkyNews event designed to help Tony appeal to people from anywhere else but warringah.

  6. Pub debate about to kick off on the far right propaganda news channel (Sky) featuring senate candidates for Tassie.

    Watch for free by getting the Foxtel Go app (Sky is available free on it without an account).

  7. I liked the movie “Pillars of the Earth” about the construction of a Gothic cathedral over generations in 12th century England. The final scene was great – the dedication ceremony for the Cathedral around the end of the 12th century, zoom into the tolling bells, zoom back out and it’s the 21st century.

  8. Steve777
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 9:09 pm
    I liked the movie “Pillars of the Earth” about the construction of a Gothic cathedral over generations in 12th century England. The final scene was great – the dedication ceremony for the Cathedral around the end of the 12th century, zoom into the tolling bells, zoom back out and it’s the 21st century.
    _________________________
    The book was quite entertaining, like fairy floss, fluffy but still a treat.

  9. And now Paul Murray is having a love fest with Mark Latham before the debate. Fk me this channel is hard to watch sometimes. The debate better be good! The Greens have been great on the two they’ve had so far. Sky is having massive technical issues with audio and video replays.

  10. PuffyTMD @ #661 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:07 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #279 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:35 pm

    If I recall he had a fairly aggresive Cancer and was trying homeopathic and other remedies. Hasn’t posted since about September last year.

    Vale. (I assume) and Raise a Glass to Bludger Trog Sorrenson. He is permantly part of the Poll Bludger ongoing story.

    I hate cancer.

    Don’t know. So, I am not jumping to conclusions.

  11. “Time is on the Greens side in Cooper. As soon as Preston sufficiently gentrifies it belongs to the Greens.”

    Perhaps you are right nath. One thing is for sure – the above is a flat out admission that the Greens are actually Tories. Anybody who changes their votes away from the organ of the working class on the basis of their personal wealth is simply no good.

  12. Looks like Shorten had his birthday cake moment today, with that journalist destroying him at that press conference today. All down hill for Labor from here, Shorten is a Bill that Australia can’t afford.

  13. GG:

    If reports of the event are anything to go by, they should do it again. Zali a standout, the Labor candidate gave a polished performance, and others rounding out the field without much fanfare. Abbott a conspicuous no-show with his stuck in the past views coming back to bite him on the backside. It’s events like this that are perfect illustrations of how an MP occupying what they thought to be a safe seat are lionised by reality creeping up on them.

  14. “Looks like Shorten had his birthday cake moment today, with that journalist destroying him at that press conference today. All down hill for Labor from here, Shorten is a Bill that Australia can’t afford.”

    Atta girl. Talking points regurgitated down pat.

  15. ‘Tom
    So how do you tell them apart from the current generation?’
    Easy:
    Second row, third from the left: John Howard has sneaked into the next gen audience.

  16. “Looks like Shorten had his birthday cake moment today, with that journalist destroying him at that press conference today. All down hill for Labor from here, Shorten is a Bill that Australia can’t afford.”

    Climate change demands a much bigger faster investment than Bill,or anyone in Australia who is serious and credible on climate change, has yet imagined, not getting stuck in a stupid media gotta designed to appeal to morons who’d be outwitted by your average potplant notwithstanding.

  17. Oh Bree, I think you left your cake out in the rain!…

    Someone left the cake out in the rain
    I don’t think that I can take it
    ‘Cause it took so long to bake it
    And I’ll never have that recipe again
    Oh, no

  18. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Perhaps you are right nath. One thing is for sure – the above is a flat out admission that the Greens are actually Tories. Anybody who changes their votes away from the organ of the working class on the basis of their personal wealth is simply no good.
    _______________________________________
    That’s one way to look at it. The fact is that Greens voters have higher income and education and are younger. Doesn’t mean they don’t support social democrat policies that support the working class. In fact, Greens policies seem specifically designed to do just that.

  19. “Doesn’t mean they don’t support social democrat policies that support the working class. In fact, Greens policies seem specifically designed to do just that.”

    They are big on blowing hard, that’s for sure. Not so big on responsibility and when push comes to shove are an exemplar on backing self interest. Briefly is right. Libkin. I do thank them for their preferences and the courtesy of not being in the Labor party though.

  20. Gee the ads on Sky are nuts. First we’ve got a scary scary black and white ad with terrible actors pretending to be those evil union “thugs”. Then we are graced with yet another cringeworthy Palmer ad with someone completely butchering We’re Not Going To Take It. Ahhhhhhhhhhhh

  21. “another cringeworthy Palmer ad with someone completely butchering We’re Not Going To Take It”

    To be fair, THAT song was written to be butchered.

  22. Young greens vote that way until such time as the share portfolio starts paying the big dividends, then it’s of to Toryland for them. Voting Tory isn’t trendy in the bars of Fitzroy when you are twenty. Which private school did you go to Nath?

  23. No nath – I meant artistic. I don’t just write, I also paint and occasionally sculpt. I studied art and originally wanted to be an art teacher before pursuing history (which was also appropriate because much history involves architecture.

  24. Senate debate starting now. All far right nutters except for Lambie. No Labor or Greens candidates. Abetz is already ranting about transgender issues. Vile dinosaur.

  25. jeffemu @ #676 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:23 pm

    Speaking of lifespans of modern buildings and constructions.
    Tell me again how old was that Olympic Stadium in Syd-a-ney again.

    It’s not being knocked down now. The Sportsground stadium, next door to the SCG is, and it is 30 years old. A disgusting waste of taxpayer money, to piss in Alan Jones pocket.

  26. I so love this. from nath, but could be Rex or any of the liberal wankers that dominate PB..

    nath is one of PBs intellectuals. Contemptous, Sardonic, superior, uber liberal, bigotted.

    nath says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:24 pm
    Saint Thomas Aquinas used to regularly levitate around Notre Dame Cathedral. Shame he used the power of God to fly instead of researching flame retardant material.

    But nath will never, ever, ever, show such contempt to any other religion.

    nath is a smug middle class rich over-educated westerner.

    He pretends to hate anything “western”, because it makes him so cool.

    But poor nath’s priviliged lifestyle is based on invasion, dispossession and then, providentially, English property law: “terra nullius”.

    But nath feels superior, like most middle class wankers, because he can make smart arse comments about a person who lived 500 years ago.

    It makes nath safe from a libel charge,

    nath is so brave!!!

  27. Mr Palmer had his chance in 2013-16, and stuffed it up. The only people likely to vote for him this time around are people who voted for the United Australia Party in 1943.

  28. Boerwar @ #684 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    The oldest built structures in Australia are probably Indigenous fish management structures and bora rings.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/10/fish-traps-brewarrina-extraordinary-ancient-structures-protection

    The oldest non-Indigenous structures are probably forts built after the wreck of the Batavia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batavia_(ship)

    Probably.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albany_Fish_Traps

  29. I actually like many of nath comments on politics… but I really hate smart-arsed comments that are designed to denigrate.

    Many “liberals”, know only one cheap mode: denigrate.

  30. Clem Attlee
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 9:37 pm
    Young greens vote that way until such time as the share portfolio starts paying the big dividends, then it’s of to Toryland for them. Voting Tory isn’t trendy in the bars of Fitzroy when you are twenty. Which private school did you go to Nath?
    ______________________________
    No private school for me Clem. Collingwood Educational Centre

    “one of the most disadvantaged schools in Victoria. One teacher described the area as ‘lower working class’.”

    Cultures of Schooling: Pedagogies for Cultural Difference and Social Access, Routledge, 1990. p. 117

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