Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Just listening to Q&A and McGrath’s melt downs. I wish Larissa Waters was greens leader – talk about getting under his skin and staying cool calm and collected in the face of boof head yelling.

    how/why does the LNP keep sending such dickheads onto Q&A

  2. sustainable future says: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 4:26 pm

    how/why does the LNP keep sending such dickheads onto Q&A

    ************************************************

    …… because in the LNP they are ALL like that ??????

  3. I just hope that the moderator of the debate doesn’t allow Shouty McShoutface to keep butting in on Bill Shorten the way Brigid Glanville, formerly of the ABC but now a Liberal staffer, allowed Gladys Berejiklian to do to the Labor Opposition Leader during their debate.

  4. sustainable future

    No doubt in the eyes of the Lib strategists, someone like McGrath is well-qualified and experienced enough to deal with any opponents the ‘stupid lefty’ ABC is able to serve up. Add the prospect of a female adjudicator and they think they’re on a winner.

    When it starts to fall apart they bully and bluster and shout.

  5. Fulvio……….regarding Mooner Murray, you are dead right. In comparison with the dross the West is dishing up in its blatant Vote for LNP/Scot Morrison/Bill – Bad, Bad, Bad………………stuff, Murray still seems capable of some two-eyed stances. A few weeks ago he thought that too much damage had been done to the Liberal brand and he considered it likely Labor would get over the line. Now, whether Stokes has told him otherwise, he might just stick to this line – but I doubt it.

  6. “Are we seriously contemplating giving taxpayers money to a Notre Dame rebuild fund while ignoring those on Newstart ..?”

    I have a hunch they might back it.

  7. Bilko says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 4:26 pm
    Talking about the dropping of the “LIBERAL” from COALition posters here in Nth Canberra most of our very own Noddy posters I have seen on my travels read “ZED your local Senator”, and they look like they were made up in someones backyard.

    I saw the same today in Tuggeranong. Liberal candidates seem to making great efforts to dissociate themselves from the “Liberal” brand. In Zed’s case of course he’s fairly unpopular on his own account, let alone being associated with the Liberals.

  8. “How/why does the LNP keep sending such dickheads onto Q&A?

    ************************************************

    …… because in the LNP they are ALL like that ??????”

    and PhoenixRed wins the rhetorical question answering award. what’s more, the LNP are such a horrible bunch that they probably think McGrath did a really good job and they’ll send him back on. Just as they used to let Mirrabella and Bishop senior on repeatedly without realising the skin-crawling and bit-of-sick-in-the-back-of-the-throat effect they had on the human population.

  9. I just stumbled onto this interview of Shorten by Robyn Williams, recorded on Saturday. I prefer reading to listening. (You can stop, slow down, skip, review, so much more easily.) So this is the transcript.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/bill-shorten-describes-science-under-a-labor-government/10997434#transcript

    Science draws it all together; knowledge, skills, enterprise, people, progress. It is essential to who we are and where we want to go as a nation. It makes us a Commonwealth in spirit, not just in name.

  10. I was always torn when viewing those medieval Cathedrals. Monuments to ignorance and superstition yet so expertly constructed. While of course they should be preserved we should not forget that they were erected for the glory of Bishops and Kings and were built on the back of the poor which frequently lived around them in the most flimsy and abject circumstances.

  11. Dog’s Breakfast says: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 4:34 pm

    I’m wondering if I can put an advance order on the book about gun control by David Leyonhjelm

    **********************************************************

    We at least don’t have THIS …………………………

    Biggest private machine gun shoot in the world is hosted in the Kentucky hills: ‘This is Disneyland with guns’

    Paul Winters has been coming to the Knob Creek Gun Shoot since 1992 to blast away at targets with machine gun rounds.

    “This is Disneyland with guns,” Winters said of the two-day event held twice a year in the hills of Kentucky near the hamlet of West Point.

    It has evolved into the biggest private machine gun shoot in the world, attracting thousands of automatic weapons enthusiasts from around the United States and abroad.

    General admission is $15 a day for adults and $5 for children under 12.

    At the Military Gun Show that accompanies the shoot, vendors sell everything from guns to ammunition. An extensive amount of German World War II memorabilia is also on offer.

    Each day ends with a “night shoot” with thousands of tracers bouncing off their targets into the night sky and setting off fireworks attached to barrels of fuel.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/biggest-private-machine-gun-shoot-world-hosted-kentucky-hills-disneyland-guns/

  12. You could not have received ballot papers as they have not been printed yet as nominations have not even closed.
    You really do have a tenuous grip on facts and reality.

    Wow EGW, that’s some next-level dickheadedry right there. All he did was say ballot paper when he meant application form.

  13. nath @ #466 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 4:43 pm

    I was always torn when viewing those medieval Cathedrals. Monuments to ignorance and superstition yet so expertly constructed. While of course they should be preserved we should not forget that they were erected for the glory of Bishops and Kings and were built on the back of the poor which frequently lived around them in the most flimsy and abject circumstances.

    Very well said, Nath.

  14. Re postal vote applications.

    First, for those of us whose handwriting is out of practice, it’s dead easy to apply online via the AEC website. And I’m sure the AEC would prefer that people do that, since it saves on data entry.

    Second, there’s no point in complaining to the AEC about parties sending out postal vote application forms and expecting the AEC to do anything about it: the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 was amended some time back to permit parties to do that: http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s184aa.html.

    Third, the AEC has argued in the past to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters that the involvement of parties is undesirable: the parties didn’t accept that.

    Fourth, in ACT elections there’s a ban on sending out material which encourages people to return a postal vote application other than directly to Elections ACT. See http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/act/consol_act/ea1992103/s143.html. It seems to have worked well, which suggests that the parties are involved in something of an arms race, with neither willing to disarm unilaterally.

    Fifth, I am waiting to see if any party does something I recall from previous elections: includes the title “The Returning Officer” as part of the party address to which postal vote applications should be sent. If I see such a thing, I will make a complaint to the AEC, double quick, under the new provisions of the Criminal Code (flowing from the “Mediscare” issue) which ban impersonation of Commonwealth officers.

    Finally, it seems to me that if any party wants to be taken seriously when it claims to want to improve respect for politics, it needs to be prepared to make changes which will cramp its own style. It needs more than just a federal ICAC. They should clean up postal voting; make parties subject to the Privacy Act; do away with the exemption parties enjoy from coverage of the do not call register; stop using parliamentary staffers to do party work; and plenty more.

  15. ar
    Bluey will say that there was some internal movement in the Greens scoring. The stumbling block is whether they are going to promise to hold the Liberals to account or, indeed, whether they held the Liberals to account for the last six years.
    LR
    Bluey reckons that he can easily award eight points or deduct eight points on a single day. Particularly if he has been on the turps.
    grimace
    Bluey reckons that if you need a lift, join him for an ink party in his rock pool. Satisfaction guaranteed.

  16. The ABC Brisbane radio debate between Ali France and Peter Dutton has kicked off. The first question is on the comments Dutton made about France using her disability “as an excuse” to not move into the electorate. Dutton says he apologised.
    France should have replied saying it was a rapid, eand unequivocal apology.

  17. @ Willam Bowe

    Is it “dickheadedry” or “dickheadedness” – I can’t seem to find the term in my Oxford English Dictionary – but on a personal note I have been called a “dickhead” many times – usually at a polling booth when I insist on giving a Labor HTV to Tories.

  18. As if there aren’t enough reasons to turf out the Pentecostal git
    Notre Dame is another

    The Prime Minister said that France was a prosperous nation which would be able to cover the expenses of rebuilding Notre Dame.

  19. Re Citizen @4:39
    “I saw the same today in Tuggeranong. Liberal candidates seem to making great efforts to dissociate themselves from the “Liberal” brand. In Zed’s case of course he’s fairly unpopular on his own account, let alone being associated with the Liberals.”

    Canberra is a public service city. Many residents work in the public service and businesses there would be very much dependent upon the public servants’ continued presence and prosperity.

    So why would anyone there vote Liberal? If you’re a public servant, you know that your Government hates you unless your an Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison political appointee. Further, it wants to downsize, terminate or privatise whatever it is you do and possibly send you out to the back of beyond.

    No wonder “Liberal” candidates there are removing their branding.

  20. Kos Samaras

    @KosSamaras
    Following Following @KosSamaras
    More
    Well there is a first. A Labor postal vote application being distributed throughout Goldstein

  21. It’s surely odd for a Pentecostal PM to give money for a Catholic Church. Don’t they see it as the “Whore of Babylon”?

    I thought giving the money to Israel to further the apocalypse or rapture would be more the Pentecostal thing to do.

  22. Socrates
    The Philistines got a bad press from the Murdoch rags of the day.
    Mr Shorten should immediately announce that a Labor Government will donate $5 million to the rebuilding of this core icon of Western Civilization.
    More wedges than you can poke a stick at.

  23. GG

    I think Sinodinos was denying that this arvo.

    Also – if ScoMo wants to be PM for all Australians he shouldn’t make his decision on Notre Dame from his own religion – maybe have a caucus meeting?

  24. AS for today’s campaign news, see ScumMo run, see ScumMo hide, see ScumMo lie.

    Labor announces they will update the figures in a policy – not change what the policy will be – because they now have updated Treasury numbers to do it with that Frytheplanet would not give them before. And that is Labor’s fault?

    Meanwhile Pastor Pantsonfire is asked about $34 billion of real spending cuts found in his own budget, presumably needed to fund his giveaway tax cut to those on over $200k per year, and offers no explanation?

    At this point Labor’s alternative budget plan is being scrutinised more than the “official” budget. Probably because nobody believes the latter.

  25. lizzie @ #497 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    GG

    I think Sinodinos was denying that this arvo.

    Also – if ScoMo wants to be PM for all Australians he shouldn’t make his decision on Notre Dame from his own religion – maybe have a caucus meeting?

    Of course he was. but, it wasn’t labor putting it out there but the Financial press who are all well known Communists.

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