Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. As a gesture of good will I think we should offer support, preferably in expertise.

    Would we have expertise to offer? Genuine question, as this is outside my remit of knowledge.

  2. ‘Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:00 pm

    Notre Dame is my favourite building. It certainly transcends religion and nationality. Last time I was there I heard part of a choral recital (as I was being shunted through by my bored family) which was unspeakably beautiful in the setting. As a gesture of good will I think we should offer support, preferably in expertise.’

    It will be interesting to see whether the rose windows, the other stained glass windows or the organ survived. Australia certainly has the current technical capacity to create and donate stained glass windows and/or pipe organs.

    The big cost question might be whether there is an insistence that traditional construction techniques are used.

  3. It is volunteers just like those pictured at the Ged Kearney launch plus the thousands of volunteers doorknocking and talking to ordinary Australians to change the rules that is missed by the MSM belly button fluff analysis.

    The MSM is looking at the duck floating on the pond surface and completely ignoring the frantic paddling going on below the surface.

    A bit like some posters here. God bless them.

  4. ‘Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:06 pm

    BW, the best engineers are artists.’

    I reckon it goes both ways, bearing in mind that in the hands of amateurs such as myself, a lot of the interactions are handled intuitively.
    I had the opportunity today to inspect closely a drone landscape image that had been printed on a pane of glass. It was fantastic. One issue: it weighed 5kg!

  5. Time is on the Greens side in Cooper. As soon as Preston sufficiently gentrifies it belongs to the Greens.

    Similarly, in Melbourne, middle-ring suburbs such as Preston are also regenerating as a result of local rezoning policies that are enabling low to mid-density developments to match rising buyer demand seeking the amenity and convenience of unit living in highly-established, typically low-rise suburbs

  6. Preston Real Estate Update:

    Preston ($950,000) could soon achieve a seven-figure median, joining the trendy suburbs to its south.

    Nelson Alexander Preston partner Colin Abbas said buyers were including Preston in their wish list of suburbs.

    “The majority of our buyers come from the inner city, Brunswick, Thornbury, Northcote,” he said. “It’s people who are upgrading from [apartments] or renters.”

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-13-victorian-neighbourhoods-that-could-be-the-next-members-of-the-milliondollarmedian-club-20180731-h13dnh-755703/

  7. Fess
    We have a few restoration experts who worked on St Peters. I’m sure we could help somehow and add to our experience at the same time.

  8. BW, yes. It’s the spiritual thread, which runs through us and unites engineers and artists, that lets me marvel the achievement.

  9. doyley
    IMO you are quite right at one level.
    Unless we are insiders we have no idea about how the ground team is travelling or how the social media strategies are working.
    I had quite a long discussion with Bluey about why bother this election, which will be Bluey’s last. One of the reasons you raise – the increasing importance of the invisible hands is completely opaque to occies.
    I have no idea of the relevant importance of the MSM compared with social media and the ground campaign and it will be interesting to see the analyses of the entrails of this election in the coming months.
    Another issue that intrigues me is that this campaign is a test of the standard political wisdom: that negging will win the day.
    Morrison never lets a day go by without oodles of FUDDING and oodles of the most vicious, nasty attacks on Shorten. These are mirrored in the political adds.
    Shorten is much more positive across a much larger range of human experience.
    If the FUD fails, future election campaigns might be much less nasty.

  10. BW
    It will be a massive bunfight over how it is restored. I read a book about the restoration of some crappy church in Venice. It took about ten years of fighting before the restoration started. Cost, traditional methods, traditional materials etc etc. it just went on.

  11. Diogenes @ #617 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:26 pm

    BW
    It will be a massive bunfight over how it is restored. I read a book about the restoration of some crappy church in Venice. It took about ten years of fighting before the restoration started. Cost, traditional methods, traditional materials etc etc. it just went on.

    it took a 100 years to build in the first place. No doubt there were some arguments during the construction.

  12. ‘Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:26 pm

    BW
    It will be a massive bunfight over how it is restored. I read a book about the restoration of some crappy church in Venice. It took about ten years of fighting before the restoration started. Cost, traditional methods, traditional materials etc etc. it just went on.’

    Based on our experiences getting a carte de sejour (a french residency permit for 12 months which took 3 months to obtain), I believe that the vision for the french bureaucracy is a cross between Waiting for Godot, the works of Kafka, and Fawlty Towers.

    That said, they will be wanting to crank it back up to receiving 13 million visitors a year toute de suite. By way of comparison, the Australian War Memorial does not crack 2 million a year.

    Maybe we could do the gargoyles.

  13. I am a staunch atheist yet I have an ‘artistic’ fascination for monumental architecture.

    Much of monumental architecture prior to the 20th century was either based on religion or government/royalty. (Indeed most art in all its forms with perhaps, the exception of word art which was more varied after the Middle Ages)

    Like Boerwar I have always been blown away by Notre Dame’s flying buttresses. I have a photograph of the back end of the cathedral (my preferred vantage) sitting on my lounge room wall.

    I understand that churches/religious institutions have throughout history had the most money so were able to afford such projects and reverence for/dominance by, the particular religion is a big part of the propaganda industry attached to such buildings. Thus they become part of the cultural fabric of a place simply because of it enduring quality.

    The temple at Karnak was an enormous example of this – and like many cathedrals, was added to by rulers and religious leaders over time to curry the favour of the religion (which dominated life).

    I am saddened by the fire and I hope they can resurrect (pun intended) it. But thinking of the destruction left by WWII I am sure that it will be.

  14. Boerwar,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Do not get me wrong. I look forward to the “ Bluely report “ every day and I hope he/she/it continues to contribute for the duration of this campaign and, perhaps with a bit of encouragement, the next. One of the highlights of the day for me.

    You are spot on with the significance of this election. Will political history continue or will Shorten and labor write new history ?

    So much rests on the answer to this question.

    Cheers.

  15. frednk @ #620 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:31 pm


    Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:18 pm

    Fess
    We have a few restoration experts who worked on St Peters. I’m sure we could help somehow and add to our experience at the same time.

    Australia I was told ( being from Bendigo ) built the last gothic church.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacred_Heart_Cathedral,_Bendigo

    Good point. I remember visiting the Bendigo Cathedral being built on a School Excursion. It was awesome!

  16. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    Diogenes @ #617 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:26 pm

    BW
    It will be a massive bunfight over how it is restored. I read a book about the restoration of some crappy church in Venice. It took about ten years of fighting before the restoration started. Cost, traditional methods, traditional materials etc etc. it just went on.

    it took a 100 years to build in the first place. No doubt there were some arguments during the construction.’

    haha.

    But they did not do OH&S in those days.

  17. GG
    They kept running out of money. De Sully, Bishop of Paris when it was first built, basically spent his life trying to get funds for it.

  18. Diogenes @ #628 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:36 pm

    GG
    They kept running out of money. De Sully, Bishop of Paris when it was first built, basically spent his life trying to get funds for it.

    Diogenes @ #628 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:36 pm

    GG
    They kept running out of money. De Sully, Bishop of Paris when it was first built, basically spent his life trying to get funds for it.

    It was probably the NBN equivalent of the 12th Century!

  19. BW
    It will be a massive bunfight over how it is restored. I read a book about the restoration of some crappy church in Venice. It took about ten years of fighting before the restoration started. Cost, traditional methods, traditional materials etc etc. it just went on.

    We are talking the French here not the Italians.
    They start tomorrow!

  20. The Libs view the local postie as their volunteer – at cost of course

    The fact that Labor have such a resource of volunteers is something the Libs can not match – so they attack

    58/42 was the result

  21. The whole of the EU will want NDdeP rebuilt asap as it is a driver of tourism into the whole of western Eureope. As such, the EU will cough up a good share of the cost and the French Republic most of the rest.
    The Catholic Church does not own the Church at all but is allowed use of it at agreed times for services but even at these times the general public is free to roam, and do, often extremely rudely and intrusively.
    At other times, and by arrangement, concerts of an approved nature are held quite frequently as is common in Paris and elsewhere. I saw a wonderful concert by the Paris Opera Orchestra and Chorus there several decades ago.

  22. Modern buildings have a nominal design life of typically 50 or 100 years but can last more. Public structures like bridges are designed for 100+. They are not designed to fall apart in year 101. As structures age, some require more costly maintenance. Concrete unreinforced structures can be very long lasting (think Roman). Reinforced concrete (but not pre-stressed) structures can also last 100+ years, especially if concrete quality and cover to reinforcement is good. There are already industrial revolution bridges 150 years old and they will last a lot longer. Steel, timber and pre-stressed concrete structure probably have the shortest lives.

  23. Gladys Liu is suppose to be a great fundraiser for the Liberal party. Only going to cost them a seat for a few more donors from the Chinese community.

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