Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. I’m not senior, just old, but I’m probably eligible to attend a “Seniors” forum. But I don’t think I’d be welcome were I to say what I thought.

  2. That whole Liberal Party postal vote application form stinks. Their prepaid envelope is to a different address than the AEC one included in the information. Who is to know what happens to ones sent via the Liberal Party? Are they assessed as to who this person is likely to vote for before being sent on (or not).

    In the USA there was a scandal identical in origin to this – where Republican Party workers would look at these applications, and deliberately not send on the ones they thought were more likely to vote for the Democrats. ?North Carolina

    Surely the AEC can stop this – if they allow parties to send out such ‘applications’ they must make it that they can ONLY be sent back to the AEC, and not via some dubious intermediary.

  3. Barney in Mui Ne says: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    I love the way I travel.

    . I’m writing this in a cafe on the footpath

    **************************************************

    Hi Barney – I’ve said it before but again I am always impressed how well you seem to connect to us in a short space of time over the internet – while people here in Oz have long waits to get on the ‘net and/or have such bad download speeds that such connections are even worse than their old ADSL that the new NBN replaced it with …..

  4. lizzie @ #245 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    EGW

    information supposedly gathered would already be known from the Electoral Roll.

    I wish them joy of the middle name of my eldest child. 😆

    That is going well beyond anything I have ever seen before.
    I would suggest you contact the AEC and complain. Or maybe get in touch with your ALP Candidate. What Electorate are you in?

  5. The insertion of the major parties in postal applications – Both articles were written in 2013 but the issues they raise are highly relevant today.

    1. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-03/lelliott-postal-vote-campaigns-are-a-service-to-democracy/4931924

    Sure, take away the power of political parties to meddle in the postal vote process, but unless you also offer an alternative, democracy will be the loser, writes Joff Lelliott.

    2. http://www.hschapman.org/pdfs/high%20court%202%20kelly.pdf

    Third, because of the ability for political parties to be intricately involved in the distribution and collection of postal voting application (PVA) forms, does this corrupt the process and increase the possibility of also disenfranchising some voters?

  6. dave says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:06 pm

    Barney in Mui Ne @ #174 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:44 am

    Ancestor worship is a strong feature in Vietnam and I understand China.

    Many houses will have shrines to parents and grandparents and it’s not uncommon to have deathday parties to remember them.

    Pretty hard for this to occur if you don’t reproduce.

    The Chinese have a public Holiday for Grave Cleaning. This year it was recent, on 5 April.

    A common sight here in the countryside is to see graves next to houses or in the middle of farm fields.

    I noticed riding out of Phan Thiet a mass cemetery on a nearby hill, an unusual sight!

  7. EGW –
    Are you pissed off that I posted rubbish? Sad.

    Location based mobile phone numbers is a reality?

    On his mobile phone, a Canberra number came up. But you knew that was what he meant, you just can’t resist being pedantic. Sad.

    The AEC handing out ballot papers for parties to distribute is not nonsense?

    As you clearly know, the parties send out ballot paper postal vote application packages. Clearly that was what was being referred to. Your inner pedant just couldn’t resist showing your superiority.

    Sad.

  8. Jackol @ #247 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:17 pm

    The parties inserting themselves into the postal vote process is not a good thing. Harvesting info – without it being made crystal clear that that is what is happening – is dubious, but worse the whole notion that any political party has any role in handling any documentation related to the voting process, even if the voting process itself retains integrity, is a bad look and undermines the very important notion that our voting system is handled entirely by a professional and completely independent electoral commission. Faith in the system etc etc.

    There is no need for this bit of dodginess; it should be stopped.

    Well we are in furious agreement on that!
    I thought there were some changes being made this time around, but obviously not.

    The problem with these things is they become an ‘arms race’. What one side does, the other side counters and maybe goes a step further. And on it goes.

    But those ‘security questions’ seem to be massive overreach to me and something that could be complained about.

  9. “Knowing full well that Labor have committed to a root and branch review of all Welfare payments, should they be privileged enough to be elected by the Australian people.

    Hopefully, one day, The Greens will just grow up. Bipartisanship works both ways.”

    We don’t need a review. We know that Newstart is way too low already and that people are living in poverty. They cannot wait while Labor spends months or years waiting to be told what they should already know.

  10. EGW, you receive a call, you do a reverse call search on Google, and they tell you the call is from Canberra . Try it yourself, the number was 0457966442.

    As far as the Ben Morton letter is concerned, the envelope stated”important electoral information” and the contents were a letter from Morton extolling his virtues, and some pamphlets.

    You are right though, I assumed the pamphlets were postal vote information, but I was so incensed by the deception that I tore the entire contents up and threw them in the bin without reading them.

  11. EGW

    Typing is slow for me, but I will try to explain.

    If the Lib Party received my application, I meant that I don’t see what use they could make of my eldest son’s middle name.

    The App Form includes five “security questions and answers”.
    Quote
    “Your security Q and A is used to verify your postal vote. You will be asked to write your answer on the envelope containing your ballot papers.”

  12. Jackol @ #259 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:30 pm

    EGW –
    Are you pissed off that I posted rubbish? Sad.

    Location based mobile phone numbers is a reality?

    On his mobile phone, a Canberra number came up. But you knew that was what he meant, you just can’t resist being pedantic. Sad.

    The AEC handing out ballot papers for parties to distribute is not nonsense?

    As you clearly know, the parties send out ballot paper postal vote application packages. Clearly that was what was being referred to. Your inner pedant just couldn’t resist showing your superiority.

    Sad.

    😆 😆 😆

    When you are posting what purports to be factual information, there is an obligation to get it right.

    I have seen enough of Fulvio’s posts to know he is not stupid and he should have been able to avoid writing a short post filled with so much mis-information.

    Maybe my expectations of him are higher than yours?

    Cheers!

  13. Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:13 pm

    @ Barney in Mui Ne

    All them cows walking around – Mmm fresh Beef Pho.

    Aroi Mak Mak (Sorry my Vietnamese is Non Existent).

    So’s mine, so I can’t help you.

    Had a laugh earlier with a group women here at the cafe which seemed to include about 3 proposals of marriage. One was about 20, but I’m not sure if it was for a permanent coupling or something more temporary. 🙂

  14. Fulvio Sammut @ #262 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:38 pm

    EGW, you receive a call, you do a reverse call search on Google, and they tell you the call is from Canberra . Try it yourself, the number was 0457966442.

    As far as the Ben Morton letter is concerned, the envelope stated”important electoral information” and the contents were a letter from Morton extolling his virtues, and some pamphlets.

    You are right though, I assumed the pamphlets were postal vote information, but I was so incensed by the deception that I tore the entire contents up and threw them in the bin without reading them.

    Makes sense now. 😀
    Keep calm comrade, gather the information and provide it to your local ALP campaign.

    I tried a search on that number and all I got was that it was a Telstra mobile.
    Mobile numbers are just that, mobile. They are not tied to an address other than maybe billing purposes.

  15. phoenixRED says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:27 pm

    Barney in Mui Ne says: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    I love the way I travel.

    . I’m writing this in a cafe on the footpath

    **************************************************

    Hi Barney – I’ve said it before but again I am always impressed how well you seem to connect to us in a short space of time over the internet – while people here in Oz have long waits to get on the ‘net and/or have such bad download speeds that such connections are even worse than their old ADSL that the new NBN replaced it with …..

    It’s not as technically backward here as in Australia. 🙂

    You can go to most cafes, restaurants and guesthouses/hotels and be pretty sure of them having a good free WiFi connection.

  16. lizzie @ #265 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:40 pm

    EGW

    Typing is slow for me, but I will try to explain.

    If the Lib Party received my application, I meant that I don’t see what use they could make of my eldest son’s middle name.

    The App Form includes five “security questions and answers”.
    Quote
    “Your security Q and A is used to verify your postal vote. You will be asked to write your answer on the envelope containing your ballot papers.”

    So they were AEC security questions?
    I would not anyone else knowing my answers to such things.
    Disturbing.

  17. Washington: A new YouTube tool for battling misinformation failed in a highly public way on Monday, wrongly linking video of the flaming collapse of the spire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

    While major technology companies have hired tens of thousands of human moderators in recent years, Silicon Valley executives have said that computers are faster and more efficient at detecting problems.

    But Monday’s incident shows the weaknesses of computerised systems. It comes just a month after YouTube and Facebook struggled for hours to detect and block video of a mass shooting at a New Zealand mosque that Internet users were posting and reposting.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/youtube-fact-checking-tool-confuses-flaming-notre-dame-for-9-11-attack-20190416-p51ei2.html

  18. EGW is just proving to be another obnoxious blow in with not much to contribute apart from snark and fuckwittery. He’ll either assimilate and learn a few matters or leave in a blaze of self righteous indignation.

    We’ve seen it all before.

  19. lizzie, thanks for posting that. I’ve been resisting because it’s a boring saw of mine. IMO these systems are not ‘fit for purpose’.

  20. If I recall he had a fairly aggresive Cancer and was trying homeopathic and other remedies. Hasn’t posted since about September last year.

  21. “What should it be raised to and why that particular amount? Facts matter.”

    Minimum $75 a week increase. That’s the Greens’ policy. In the longer term, a full review of Centrelink does need to be done, which is also part of the Greens’ policy, as is a trial of the UBI which would eventually replace Newstart. However, people are going hungry and struggling on just $39 a day right now. As I type this there are Australians going hungry. They cannot wait.

    Facts do matter.
    https://greens.org.au/campaigns/raise-rate

  22. Oh, and I noticed someone earlier raised Youth Allowance. Good question. The Greens’ policy is to increase it by $75 a week too.

  23. Firefox @ #283 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:11 am

    “What should it be raised to and why that particular amount? Facts matter.”

    Minimum $75 a week increase. That’s the Greens’ policy. In the longer term, a full review of Centrelink does need to be done, which is also part of the Greens’ policy, as is a trial of the UBI which would eventually replace Newstart. However, people are going hungry and struggling on just $39 a day right now. As I type this there are Australians going hungry. They cannot wait.

    Facts do matter.
    https://greens.org.au/campaigns/raise-rate

    Yes, they do matter.

    Why $75? Why not $70, $80 or some other amount? A $10.71 a day increase, while very welcome, is not much.

    The rational for the increase is going to be very important in order for it to withstand reactionary attack and be sold to the public.

  24. “How about the fact that the Greens will never have the opportunity to implement any of their harebrained policies.”

    History proves just how wrong you are.

  25. Scotty is plugged into popular culture…

    Talking to Geelong radio Rock 95.5 FM, Scott Morrison went into a little more detail about his love of Game of Thrones.

    Well yeah, I watched that first episode last night. I mean Jon Snow has always been my favorite character and all that, but I thought it was a bit of a slow start last night for the first episode of the final series. But anyway I think it’s all a bit of fun, a bit of fantasy that people can sort of chill out and zone out while they watch it. We were watching it with the some of the media gallery that are on the bus with us, trailing us around.

  26. Why $75? Why not $70, $80 or some other amount? A $10.71 a day increase

    Sounds like it’s because that makes it an even $50/day instead of $39/day.

  27. As anyone heard from Trog Sorrenson as of late?

    Trog was unwell IIRC.
    Perhaps he is choosing to spend his time in more pleasant surrounds than PB.

  28. Does GetUp now have more members than the Liberal Party? Just got this email..

    Dear Sprocket_

    You’ve smashed it … and they’re getting desperate.

    Yesterday’s Fairfax front pages were lit up with stories about GetUp members “shaking up the election.”1

    They reported on an amazing 7,600 volunteers for the election so far and 64,956 individuals donating in one year. Actually, in the last seven days alone 11,609 donors chipped in more than half-a-million dollars to take on the hard right, stop Adani and more. And for more than 1,000 people, this was their first ever donation to GetUp.

    So the hard right is lashing out, with almost daily attacks in the Murdoch press, and a perverse costumed character called ‘Captain GetUp’ denigrating members and spreading terrible lies about our movement.2

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #274 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:54 pm

    EGW is just proving to be another obnoxious blow in with not much to contribute apart from snark and fuckwittery. He’ll either assimilate and learn a few matters or leave in a blaze of self righteous indignation.

    We’ve seen it all before.

    You on the other hand have been a constant source of snark and fuckwittery. I suppose your endurance deserves some perverse admiration.

  30. Firefox @ #288 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 11:17 am

    “How about the fact that the Greens will never have the opportunity to implement any of their harebrained policies.”

    History proves just how wrong you are.

    True.

    Not only do the Greens manage to utterly fail at implementing their hairbrained policies, where there are parts of their policies which are reasonable, achievable and actionable they manage to go backwards, making it less likely they’ll achieve what they want.

    But they remember what’s important. Unless they can have perfect, they’ll take nothing, or they’ll vote to ensure we go backwards.

  31. “Why $75? Why not $70, $80 or some other amount? A $10.71 a day increase, while very welcome, is not much.”

    No, it’s not a huge amount, but it’s something. To someone living on just $39 a day, an increase of $10 per day could make a huge difference. $10 brings it up to $50 a day or thereabouts. Again, that’s still not much, but it’s damn sure better than $39. It’s just a starting point.

    The rationale for increasing it is simple. AUSTRALIANS ARE GOING HUNGRY AND CAN’T PAY THEIR RENT (if they even have somewhere to live, which many don’t).

  32. I don’t know why Di Natale is downplaying the Greens chances in Cooper. I would have thought that this was still the best seat to deliver a second Greens member in the HoR. With the Libs standing again there is a chance that the results might go somewhere near the 2016 result. While it’s good that the Greens are putting more effort into Kooyong and Higgins, they should not forget that Wills and Cooper are future Greens territory with some dedicated work.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *