Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

  1. The UAP numbers in the Newspoll seat polls gobsmacked me…Also I counted those right-wing populist party votes in Herbert, it is higher than either the ALP and LNP.

    And query impact of UAP primary and preferences in Dawson…(assuming they run there?)

  2. The MoE is likely to be well above 4.3%. It’s almost impossible to draw properly randomised samples on a small scale. In other words, the MoE will be greater than the 2CP swings required for the seats to change hands.

  3. They’re crap because of mobile phones.

    Mobile phones aren’t a problem when you’re doing national and state scale surveys, because you don’t need to tie people to a particular location, you just need to make sure you’ve got the right demographic balance.

  4. a r @ #898 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:38 pm

    Tristo @ #890 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:35 pm

    The UAP numbers in the Newspoll seat polls gobsmacked me, on the basis of those numbers Clive Palmer will become a Senator.

    His popularity is almost entirely a reflection of the mainstream parties’ unpopularity. People want an alternative. Any alternative.

    I think it’s more than that. Clive’s been targeted a very specific electorate, going on about ‘greenies from Melbourne and Sydney DESTROYING coal jobs’ and also they control the Queensland Government.

    Personally, I think its complete bog, and Clive should do us catalogue delivers a favour and deliver it on his own cheapskate ass.

  5. A strong showing by Greens across all 4 polls. With their Adani convoy to hit Queensland, we can expect their vote in the region to hit 1% in a short time.

    Palmer may get senate seats.

    Vic ALP primary vote looks strong in Deakin. May also help with 3rd ALP seat from Hinch.

    Bit disappointed QLD still voting in huge numbers for nutjobs and crooks.

  6. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #738 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:43 pm

    antonbruckner11 says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    I do suspect that Barnyard was too busy getting pissed and screwing to pay a lot of attention to the whole scam. I’m sure he knew the general picture (including that “mates” were involved). But he’s a cowboy. He didn’t get involved in the detail. He’s too lazy.

    There is a story about him having a total meltdown at Channel 7 before the State Election coverage. He’s obviously a man under immense pressure who is drinking like a fish. This won’t end well.
    *******************************
    Yes, he from my experience does drink like a fish.

    Several years ago, when he was a Queensland Senator, I sat next to him on two flights from Canberra to Brisbane. Now while he was quite engaging to chat to, we did manage to consume three bottles of red between us on each occasion

    Saw him at the Canberra Yacht Club. Maybe 8 years ago. I had taken the kids there for lunch. It is really just a pokies club but has some lawns by the lake where they can play (not too close obviously). He was a couple of tables away ranting with, mainly at, another suit. Red faced. A bottle of red on the go and and an empty. Now obviously just my impression, but he appeared to be well done at no later than 12:30

  7. Has anyone (maybe Kevin Bonham?) done a systematic analysis of how seat polls compare with reality across the board? My impression is that, in addition to the large MOE, they tend to skew quite strongly pro-Coalition compared with state/national polls and election results, at both national and state level.

  8. Probably good that Palmer getting recognition votes at this stage. Its not just coal – he has been hitting MAGA, big parties on the nose etc. So far he has had little scrutiny – expect some now. Media should be putting some mics in front of some of the mroe out there UAP candidates.

  9. Will those seat polls encourage the LNP to do preference deals with UAP that ends up with Clive Palmer as a senator? Madness to help elect a madman.

    Why is UAP so high? I can only think it is a switch from ON because of their train wrecks.
    Plus (of course) how real are they?

  10. Zoidlord says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:40 am

    Barney_Joyce Twitter:

    It is a shame that Nixon could be more tolerant of communist than the ARU is of Israel Folau
    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:42 am

    —————————————————–
    “an accused Communist.” Paul Robeson, one of the greatest Americans of the 20th century was proud of his leftist leanings. A towering artist and a formidable mind, Robeson was not bowed by the attacks hurled at him during his lifetime. He is probably only second to Martin Luther King as a representative of African-Americans. There really should be a Paul Robeson Day to honor this outstanding human being. A brief glance at his biography should prove unquestionably that he was THE renaissance man of his time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt-2Ijppbiw

  11. Saw the story of the Barnaby interview on ABC News just now. The newsreader (not Bev O’Conner, a dark haired lady) gave what is now the typically ABC “balanced” summary (Barnaby was asked about it and he said it was Qld Labor’s responsibility). Then she played a bit of the audio: Patricia Karvellas asking Barnaby questions and Barnaby ingoring them and rabbiting on and on and on about Labor Labor Labor Labor…

  12. PaulTu

    Firstly, can’t do preference deals (meaningfully) in the Senate. The most you can do is issue HTVs recommending how to vote above the line, but this is very difference from the ability to determine preference flows.

    Secondly, I don’t believe the UAP is that high. There’s been no other polling at all indicating any strong support for UAP. I’d suggest that this was a poll conducted over landlines, and that landlines would give you an older demographic. I’d throw in the shy major voter effect (I just made that up, but I can’t think of how else to put it) – which often sees voters indicating support for minors which doesn’t eventuate on election day.

  13. “zoomster says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 11:17 pm
    PaulTu

    Firstly, can’t do preference deals (meaningfully) in the Senate. The most you can do is issue HTVs recommending how to vote above the line, but this is very difference from the ability to determine preference flows.”

    Yes, but this also all you can do for lower house seats. How effective they are I don’t know.

    Thank goodness the “Glenn Druery” days are over, at least federally.

    Are the figures real? I doubt it – especially outside Qld – but it’s pretty frightening nonetheless.

  14. 1. We all know seat polling is unreliable.
    2. Clive Palmer has spent tens of millions on adverts. Any support he has built could evaporate overnight if one of the other parties reminds voters that he hasn’t paid his workers.
    3. Given a choice between UAP and PHON I would take UAP any day.

  15. Cannot be a good start to the week for the Coalition after the utter train-wreck of daS Beetrooter breaking cover.

    For seat polls the recently released ones actually not bad for the ALP at this stage of the campaign.

    Frankly bizarre that anyone would vote for Palmer after his last effort in Parliament, but there is something in the water in QLD. 🙁

  16. Time for another Stop Adani update!

    For those of you who thought that the Stop Adani Convoy would receive a hostile reception when they crossed into Queensland, think again.

    Today around 5000 people turned up for a massive march lead by Greens legend Bob Brown though the streets of Brisbane.

    This follows a huge turnout in the small far northern NSW town of Mullumbimby yesterday.

    Meanwhile, Bob Brown has slammed the Murdoch media and the Coalition for their disgraceful attacks on the Stop Adani Convoy, The Bob Brown Foundation, and the Greens.

    See here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/bob-brown-accuses-news-corp-of-disgraceful-coverage-of-stop-adani-convoy

    Bob Brown leads the march through Brisbane.

    Bob Brown with Greens senator and co-deputy leader, Larissa Waters, who is wearing C@t’s favourite earrings! Yasss!

    Brown speaks to the enormous crowd in Brisbane.

    The huge march through the Brisbane streets! Makes me want to listen to Seven Nation Army on full volume! Inspirational stuff!

    The rally yesterday in Mullumbimby, NSW.

  17. So 5000 people is an ‘enormous crowd’ is it? Try 75000 for size. That’s an enormous protest crowd and here in Melbourne we have had loads of them. Your rights at work being one of the biggest. 5000….pppppffffttttt.

  18. Clive Palmer has realised that pretty blonde women and retired football players win him votes, not repeated viewings of Clive Palmer.

  19. Firefox,
    Yep, Larissa Waters still looks like a protesting schoolgirl. I guess that’s the aim. The Greens do want 16 year olds to get the vote after all. 🙂

  20. Good morning C@t

    Are you criticising Larissa’s earrings just because she’s a Green? I see no harm in them.

    The Adani protest gives people something to focus on regarding coalmines/water, but it won’t really affect the outcome. That will rely on the election. If the march puts a bomb under the LNP, good!

  21. In the absence of a detailed explanation about how Murdoch’s individual seat robopolls were conducted I’m not prepared to give them any credence at all.
    How did they account for:
    1 busy mobile phone owners sending unrecognized numbers to voice mail?
    And
    2 mobile phone owners who also have landlines ( and get polled twice)?

    Anyway, the murdochracy is now desperately trying to keep up the spirits of hopelessly fractured ‘teams’ of campaigners and dispirited politicians. Obvious from the spin in the reporting of results with MOE of 4%.
    Serious conflict of interest where the pollster is also a game player.

    While I doubt the betting markets are highly accurate I equally doubt they are as wrong as these seat polls suggest.

  22. Has anyone else totally lost the editing function? I’m using an older IPad and it lost the editing function in PB a few days ago.
    Most annoying to not be able to fix errors after posting.

  23. lizzie,
    I’m not criticising Larissa Waters because she’s a Green but I just think Senators and candidates should behave with decorum. Leave the silly stuff, like the earrings, to the supporters. I would say the same btw, if a Labor Senator ran around with, ‘Restore Penalty Rates’ earrings on. Though they would be bigger and thus look sillier. 😆

  24. “Firefox,
    Yep, Larissa Waters still looks like a protesting schoolgirl. I guess that’s the aim. The Greens do want 16 year olds to get the vote after all.”

    Yes, we do want to give 16yos the vote. They can drive a car at that age so why not? It’s their future they’re voting on after all.

    Since there have been so many schoolgirls (and boys for that matter) protesting on climate change lately, I’d say Senator Waters would take being compared to them as a compliment.

  25. “I’m not criticising Larissa Waters because she’s a Green but I just think Senators and candidates should behave with decorum.”

    Have you ever listened to her speak? Or are you just obsessed with her earrings lol.

  26. “Clive Palmer has realised that pretty blonde women and retired football players win him votes, not repeated viewings of Clive Palmer.”

    It’s so depressing isn’t it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *