Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
sprocket_ @ #803 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:43 pm
Well you could if you had taken the time to follow KJs advice and install anti-paywall.
It is a bit tedious seeing you and others repeatedly complain of not being able to access such material when you have been told many times how to do it.
I certainly have never seen the I’m-too-incompetent-to-be-corrupt defence run with such panache and conviction. Barny, I salute you.
Good to see you back ‘EGW’
I only use an iPad these days, and you can’t install much on it
Bob, perhaps I’m just numb from the interminable wait, but the media haven’t been bothering me of late 🙂
I mentioned a few days ago I got robopolled about my candidate and party preferences in Sturt last Wednesday evening.
Rowan dean still says the coalition will win the May 18 election and I believe what he is saying because he was only predicted trump would win the US election
seems like workman is being fed by Murdoch and liberal party for spreading lies with this along with dodgy ass advertising and fake policies by liberal troll bots, someone needs this to be investigated for!
Sally McManus:
This is really pretty pathetic Alice. Did you want to tell people this is the @BetootaAdvocate’s podcast and they were making a joke about Sky News?
Zoidlord @ #857 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:35 pm
Can anyone point out a pro-LNP talking point from the last week that isn’t an own goal?
Damn.. the Barnaby Joyce interview is classic
Listened to the trainwreck. It was like witnessing an assassination, live.
New England voters can’t say now that they weren’t warned.
EGW @ #847 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:30 pm
Out of luck using an IPad.
The Bypass Paywalls can be used with desktop computers using either Firefox or Chrome and
Android devices using Firefox.
Sadly many sites are not amenable to Outline either which makes life a little more difficult.
Goodnight again. 💤💤
Bushfire Bill @ #860 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:38 pm
More like slow suicide.
@mishyloan:
I was in Barnaby’s electorate yesterday at my Uncle’s farm.
•He’s sold his stock
•Drinking water is delivered each week in giant bottles
•Water to wash etc is delivered via a tanker
Wonder if Barnaby knows where there’s a spare drop or two laying around #auspol #watergate2019
sprocket_ @ #839 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:20 pm
What?! That’s clearly a recent shot of him manually administering the carp-herpes. 🙂
a r @ #864 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:43 pm
Wrong end.
sprocket_ @ #853 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:32 pm
OK, not sure if it works on Firefox or Chrome on an iPad.
Have you tried?
Rowan dean still says the coalition will win the May 18 election and I believe what he is saying because he was the only person to predicted trump would win the US election….
Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor Labor!
horse poo
sprocket_ @ #853 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:32 pm
Here ’tis:
Most of them always have been as far as I can see. That’s why I don’t particularly want to see more of them.
Rowan Dean is a rude, obnoxious buffoon. Couldn’t give a stuff what he says.
In his latest book, Stiglitz is presenting the proposition that Trade Agreements have not disadvantaged Europe or the US but have been beneficial to Corporates at the expense of workers in both developed and developing economies
Interesting and well researched conclusions – as always
Marginal seat polls released in the SmearStralian
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
If anyone can reveal..
Article up now in the Australian about marginal seat polling for anyone that has a subscription. Saying a surge in Clive Palmer vote.
50-50 in Herbert and Pearce, 51-49 to Liberal in Deakin, 51-49 to Labor in Lindsay.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/kingmaker-huge-spending-campaign-hits-pay-dirt/news-story/ff1afc56316704e53d4a13239b0cb86b
TPP here
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d67aa66a1cd6d5c038966fbc35ae5811
Poll figures here
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2ec7c52fbf53234938a5267f541fa61c
Kingmaker: huge spending campaign hits pay dirt
Simon Benson NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
3 minutes ago April 22, 2019
A surge in support for Clive Palmer on the back of a $30 million advertising campaign has given the billionaire the power to act as kingmaker in marginal seats, as the Coalition closes in on Labor in at least two of those electorates.
An exclusive Newspoll of four marginal seats across the country, conducted for The Australian, shows the divisive Queensland businessman and former failed MP could also be on track to hold the balance of power in the Senate.
The poll found the four seats — Herbert in north Queensland, Lindsay in western Sydney, Deakin in outer Melbourne and Pearce on Perth’s outskirts — rest on a knife edge, with preference flows from minor parties set to determine the outcome.
The Australian understands senior Liberals are in advanced discussions with Mr Palmer’s team in a bid to secure a preference deal.
So no swing in Herbert or Lindsay, but swings to Labor of 3-4% in Pearce and 5-6% in Deakin.
Palmer’s preferences will be worth as much as his IOUs. Probably like PHoN protests voters, leak everywhere
At this stage of the campaign, I’d say that’s a pretty sound position for Labor to be in.
sprocket_ @ #873 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:07 pm
All I dare copy…
{Kingmaker: huge spending campaign hits pay dirt
A surge in support for Clive Palmer on the back of a $30 million advertising campaign has given the billionaire the power to act as kingmaker in marginal seats, as the Coalition closes in on Labor in at least two of those electorates.
An exclusive Newspoll of four marginal seats across the country, conducted for The Australian, shows the divisive Queensland businessman and former failed MP could also be on track to hold the balance of power in the Senate.
The poll found the four seats — Herbert in north Queensland, Lindsay in western Sydney, Deakin in outer Melbourne and Pearce on Perth’s outskirts — rest on a knife edge, with preference flows from minor parties set to determine the outcome.
The Australian understands senior Liberals are in advanced discussions with Mr Palmer’s team in a bid to secure a preference deal.
The surprise return of Mr Palmer as a political force four years after his previous party’s collapse comes as Bill Shorten struggles to win over voters. Almost twice as many people polled in the four seats believed Scott Morrison would be a better prime minister.
Mr Morrison leads Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister 49 to 27 per cent in Herbert, 53-33 in Lindsay, 51-37 in Deakin and 53-26 in Pearce.
The poll found Liberal MP Michael Sukkar was almost assured of retaining Deakin but the LNP was in an arm-wrestle to wrest back Herbert from Labor. Labor is threatening in Attorney-General Christian Porter’s Liberal heartland seat of Pearce while the Liberals are in the game to win back Lindsay, which has changed hands four times since 1996.
The poll recorded a primary vote for Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party of between 5 per cent in Deakin and 14 per cent in Herbert. Averaged across the four seats, Mr Palmer commands about 8 per cent of the primary vote, eclipsing One Nation and almost double the result at the 2013 election when his Palmer United Party burst on to the political stage.
If the level of support shown in the lower house seats were replicated in the Senate, UAP could win up to three upper house seats.
—
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/kingmaker-huge-spending-campaign-hits-pay-dirt/news-story/ff1afc56316704e53d4a13239b0cb86b
Steve777
Well said
Looking encouraging for Labor on those figures.
Individual seat polls, a lot of caution needs to be exercised, with not a lot credence to be put in them.
What was the MOE for these polls?
I think back to the Longman and the Super Saturday by elections, the Labor vote was underestimated. The outcomes not as predicted.
I prefer aggregates myself.
“The poll found Liberal MP Michael Sukkar was almost assured of retaining Deakin but the LNP was in an arm-wrestle to wrest back Herbert from Labor. Labor is threatening in Attorney-General Christian Porter’s Liberal heartland seat of Pearce while the Liberals are in the game to win back Lindsay, which has changed hands four times since 1996.”
With a 4 point drop in his primary – albeit a 500 sample poll – and being one of the GetUp target seats, I wouldn’t be following Bensons ‘almost assured’ take on this.
Sportsbet has Deakin
ALP 1.60
Coalition 2.30
Simon Benson can double his money, no risk.
OK, so here are my ABC Vote Compass results:
https://www.icloud.com/sharedalbum/#B0bJtdOXmJFHhz7
sprocket_ @ #884 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:26 pm
Shireen Morris is a great candidate.
The local Libs are not confident at all.
Sample sizes
Herbert 529 MOE 4.3
Deakin 535 MOE 4.2
Lindsay 618 MOE 3.9
Pearce 509 MOE 4.3
I listened to the Joyce interview and he sounded like a person with a lot of problems on his mind. A bigger tain wreck of an interview you will never hear. However, all this fuss about Karvelas? No great journalism on show here at all. She had some intell, dug up by West, Salt et al and all she really did was stay on course by repeating key questions, over ,and over and over. Gee, some people are very easily impressed. Joyce dug himself a hole, Karvelas not so much.
I listened to the trainwreck interview of Joyce by Karvelas on RN.
This clown was made Special Drought Envoy by Scomo.
Yep #watergate underscores Scomo’s brilliant political judgement.
Red13
MOE ranges from 3.9% to 4.3% depending on the seat:
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2ec7c52fbf53234938a5267f541fa61c
I like how a 51-49 result is an “almost assured retain” when the 51 belongs to a Liberal, and a “possible Liberal win” when the 51 belongs to Labor.
The UAP numbers in the Newspoll seat polls gobsmacked me, on the basis of those numbers Clive Palmer will become a Senator. Also I counted those right-wing populist party votes in Herbert, it is higher than either the ALP and LNP.
It’s always the way.
This story –
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/not-my-job-barnaby-joyce-angrily-rejects-criticism-over-controversial-water-buyback-20190422-p51g6k.html
– refers to Network 10’s The Project and to tonight’s “ABC interview ” (without mentioning the name “Karvelas”), but there’s no mention of the unmentionable Michael West.
As far as Nine-Fairfax is concerned, there is no such thing as the internet. West has been disappeared.
The publishing of these seat polling results have been to promote the idea that Morrison and the LNP are still in the game. The emphasis on promoting preferred PM figures is staying true to the plan. Clutching at the straw offered by Clive is a work of fiction at best and possibly just nonsense.
How many other seats were similarly polled and the results discarded. Seat polling has an unenviable poor reputation for accuracy.
The LNP are on track for a massive electoral loss with Barnaby’s latest contribution possibly ths straw that broke the already badly damaged LNP broken back.
Many LNP stalwarts will be wondering what else can possibly go wrong before Anzac Day.
Stuart Robert was on TV tonight, an omen of worse to come.
Ye gads, Benson can write some shit.
Tristo @ #890 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:35 pm
His popularity is almost entirely a reflection of the mainstream parties’ unpopularity. People want an alternative. Any alternative.
If Labor still holds at 52-48 nationwide in tomorrow’s essential (and others like newspoll), I think it is game over/landslide incoming. If tomorrow’s essential is 50-50/51-49 to Labor, it’s still likely going to be a Labor victory, especially since water-gate will do quite a bit of damage to the Coalition. However, if the Coalition take the lead, it’s anyone’s.
Newspoll/Australian claiming the “maximum sampling error” is plus or minus 4.3% etc – must be one of the worst attempts at explaining margin of error.
And how 49-51 means that the Libs are back in the race for Lindsay but that Labor is almost assured of losing in Deakin is beyond understanding.
Individual seat polling is crap.
And Clive Palmer won’t get those numbers, even in Queensland.