Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

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  1. Goll says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:40 pm

    The voters of New England have had ‘Watergate’ and Joyce dumped in their laps. What are you going to do New England voters?
    **************************
    Probably applaud his performance and vote him in again.

    It’s strange, you would think having a University there would bring some form of enlightenment to the area, but it hasn’t.

  2. antonbruckner11 says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:14 pm

    What’s all of this crap about the Qld Labor govt recommending the deal? Barny is clearly drunk.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if that was something like confirming ownership of the water rights.

  3. Barnyard’s water problem isn’t going to wash well in Farrer, where a strong independent (Kevin Mack) is standing against Sussan Ley.

  4. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:16 pm

    BK @ #694 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    It would appear William is far from impressed by The Australian.

    WB is positioning himself as the rebel Psephologist.

    Relies on facts and truth. Therefore totally unreliable in News World..

    And yet one of his main sources of data comes from there. 🙂

  5. @Lord Haw Haw: In this if little else, New England voters resemble those of Australia as a whole. Proudly ignorant, greedy, bigoted, nasty little people eager to vote in anyone who promises to kick “the wrong sort” of people when they’re down. No wonder the Fibs win elections so often.

  6. Barney in Da Lat @ #706 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:20 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:16 pm

    BK @ #694 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    It would appear William is far from impressed by The Australian.

    WB is positioning himself as the rebel Psephologist.

    Relies on facts and truth. Therefore totally unreliable in News World..

    And yet one of his main sources of data comes from there. 🙂

    Comrade,

    It’s late, but make sense!

  7. Thought I’d share my ABC Vote Compass results so some of the Labor supporters on here can see how a Greens member really thinks and just how strongly I oppose the Coalition. The fact that some of you here accuse Greens like me of supporting the Liberals over Labor is frankly laughable.

    And oh yes, I’m most certainly a lefty progressive! Damn proud of it too!

    I’d be interested to see what some of your results are.

  8. I do suspect that Barnyard was too busy getting pissed and screwing to pay a lot of attention to the whole scam. I’m sure he knew the general picture (including that “mates” were involved). But he’s a cowboy. He didn’t get involved in the detail. He’s too lazy.

    There is a story about him having a total meltdown at Channel 7 before the State Election coverage. He’s obviously a man under immense pressure who is drinking like a fish. This won’t end well.

  9. Sprocket – an absolutely BRILLIANT letter. It gives the secretary no wriggle room at all. I betchya he now pleads that he’s in “caretaker mode” so he can’t say anything!

  10. The Liberals have had to dump seven candidates, six for S44 reasons and one for running off the reservation.

    Henderson is off with some environmentalists protesting directly against Government policy. Get that. She is a sitting MP who is protesting against Government policy.

    Molan has gone rogue and is running a below the line campaign to save his political career.

    Rennick, holding a crocodile, opines that the corporate tax rate ought to be 12%.

    Turnbull, smarting at the knife in the back, reminds everyone that Morrison supported the NEG because it would reduce emissions and reduce electricity prices.

    Taylor reckons nothing has ever had anything to do with him but Joyce says go ask Taylor.

    Abbott reckons that he is still in with a chance to become leader.

    Joyce, earlier, did a bit of a leadershit run.

    Banks is running against Hunt.

    Sudmalis is helping Hodgkinson against the Liberal candidate.

    So is Gash.

    It is quite extraordinary that they are still being taken seriously by anyone at all.

  11. I have just listened to the whole Karvalis-Joyce interview again. Joyce isn’t pissed, he’s stupid, scared and desperate, because his owners can’t make this go away. He’s going to have to front a RC with the capacity to compel answers (other than”Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor” – and that was a direct quote) about the people he fronts for. Dog help New England – ’cause they had their chance last time.

  12. Joyce: ‘The people that were benefiting (from the $80 Million sale of floodwater), were the people we were sending the water to.’ (After Patricia Karvelas asked Joyce ‘who benefited from the water sale?’)

    So kind of Joyce and Angus Taylor to take $80 Million for floodwater that ‘the people’ would have normally got for free if it hadn’t been baled up on the 2 farms that Eastern Agriculture owned.

  13. Barnaby ‘I didn’t dun nuthin’ Joyce is correct in a sense. Joyce did exactly nothing in his role of water minister or DPM. A disgrace. Morrison and the LNP should throw this bloke out of the coalition. Morrison should refuse to remain in a coalition which has Joyce as a humble backbencher. The National party should expel Joyce from their party. The voters of New England should be held in contempt if they return this goofy cowboy at the next election.
    The ‘I didn’t see nothing’ MSM no longer have a choice, report the Joyce melee or fall further down the totem of regard.
    Karvelas may have saved the reputation of the ABC.
    Its been a wild ride for the self-righteous Joyce, claiming on arriving in Canberra, that he would use the Senate as it was intended to be used.
    Perhaps the wrong role models or perhaps the fruit of the vine. Most likely both. Good luck Barnaby, in your future which will not be in politics.

  14. “Firefox

    I am more progressive than you.

    I got 25% for One Nation. Not sure how I got it so low.”

    Apparently I agree with ON on not extending preschool to 3 year olds lol. Not exactly an issue that’s at the top of my agenda.

    Personally, I think kids should start school a couple of years later and finish a couple of years later too. It would mean that they’re more mature and mentally developed when they’re at the business end in year 11 and 12. Again, that’s just a personal thought bubble. I think those reasons for opposing 3 year olds doing preschool are probably much different to ON’s. I’m assuming they oppose it because they don’t want the government spending more money on education, which I totally disagree with.

  15. antonbruckner11 says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    I do suspect that Barnyard was too busy getting pissed and screwing to pay a lot of attention to the whole scam. I’m sure he knew the general picture (including that “mates” were involved). But he’s a cowboy. He didn’t get involved in the detail. He’s too lazy.

    There is a story about him having a total meltdown at Channel 7 before the State Election coverage. He’s obviously a man under immense pressure who is drinking like a fish. This won’t end well.
    *******************************
    Yes, he from my experience does drink like a fish.

    Several years ago, when he was a Queensland Senator, I sat next to him on two flights from Canberra to Brisbane. Now while he was quite engaging to chat to, we did manage to consume three bottles of red between us on each occasion

  16. Firefox says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:25 pm
    Compared to me and I suspect many others you look like a bit of fascist. (Letting my inner juvenile out tonight.)

  17. Firefox
    Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:25 pm
    Comment #709

    My Vote Compass results.

    I’d like to move a little to the left – not sure how. 💤💤

  18. “Firefox says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:25 pm
    Compared to me and I suspect many others you look like a bit of fascist. (Letting my inner juvenile out tonight.)”

    Me? A fascist? You cannot be serious haha. Mate I’m pretty much the exact opposite of a fascist.

  19. As far as I could tell, Joyce was insistent about three main things:
    1. He was obliged to follow legislation that was implemented by Labor,

    2. Penny Wong bought water for $300 million from exactly the same people in the Caymans as he paid the $80 million dollars to,

    3. The Queensland Labor government recommended the purchase of the water from those same people.

    Putting aside his rambling and almost hysterical responses to the questioning for a moment, are any of the above true and if so, does it make any difference to how we should judge his culpability or lack thereof?

  20. I do hope everyone lauding Karvelas remembers this interview the nec time she goes hard on a labor figure and makes them look ordinary.

    She’s a fine journo regardless of who she’s interviewing.

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