Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

Comments Page 14 of 19
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  1. The voters of New England have had ‘Watergate’ and Joyce dumped in their laps. What are you going to do New England voters?

  2. Victoria @ #4347 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    ’s Tweets

    Who owns Eastern Australian Agriculture and benefited from $80 million water deal?

    One investor was Pacific Alliance – which senior govt sources say means the Future Fund is in the frame.
    Quote Tweet

    · 10m
    BREAKING: Senior government sources say the Future Fund “indirectly” benefited from the $80 million water licence deal with Eastern Oz Agriculture though links with Hong Kong based Pacific Alliance (link: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/04/22/barnaby-joyce-water/) thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/… @the

    Thought so. The $61m to set up the structure didn’t come from either Taylor or Joyce. I’ll bet some of it was Gina’s money – covered by the Hammock-Dweller’s Future Fund lurk.

  3. Annabel Crabb
    Interview is over, thirty minutes in. That really reminds me of the Jackie Kelly interview
    did for AM in campaign, I think, 2007

  4. Costello is probably NOT in the frame over #Watergate, but he will be forced to go public to state that.


  5. As someone mentioned yesterday – this election was designed to avoid the long campaign of 2016, shortened even more by Easter and Anzac Day. And I think guytaur wondered whether part of that plan was knowing that they would avoid polls for the first few weeks.

    But without polls, the media people now have this Watergate story to latch on to, and nothing else.

    Good – the Coalition deserve to lose this election on management of the Darling River and Menindee Lakes alone, even ignoring everything else in the six years of train-wreck government we have endured.

  6. I don’t know why everyone is fussing about Morrison’s religiosity.
    He lies like a trooper.
    He imprisons people in concentration camps where they die at extraordinary rates.
    He feels no compunction about saving $3 billion on the NDIS while blaming a lack of demand.
    He has no compunction about making the rich richer and the poor poorer.
    In other words, when it comes to action and when it comes to policy, there is absolutely no connection to Morrison’s religion.
    One of the reasons that Trump succeeded was all the irrelevant fussing about Trump the person.
    When all along it was the policies that should have been, and should be now, the main focus.

    What matters about Morrison is that he has spent six years screwing wages.

  7. Joyce is appealing to his local network. Karvalis has out smarted himf by being on the line for as long as she did. Joyce obviously ran out of thing s to say after ten minutes.

  8. So, the history of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments can be divided into two epochs:

    1. The On Water Epoch.
    2. The Under Water Epoch.

  9. Conversation

    Tony Burke
    Anyone who listened to
    interviewing Barnaby Joyce should note two things:
    1. He used to be Deputy Prime Minister of Australia
    2. If Morrison wins he hopes to make a comeback.
    #auspol #watergate

  10. booleanbach says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:34 pm

    Whichever Justice gets to head the RC into Watergate will have a bundle of joy in Barnaby.

    Maybe they could just get Bret Walker to finish what he started. 🙂

  11. Tomorrow’s headlines in the Australian:

    Bill Shorten is Very Bad
    Labor Climate Policy to Cost 2000 Trillion Dollars
    Labor Squads to Sieze and Crush Utes
    Labor to Confiscate Self Funded Retirees Assets

    And in the bottom left of page 13 “Barnaby deftly bats away scurrilous Labor allegations”

  12. Barney in Da Lat @ #4384 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    booleanbach says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:34 pm

    Whichever Justice gets to head the RC into Watergate will have a bundle of joy in Barnaby.

    Maybe they could just get Bret Walker to finish what he started. 🙂

    That would be fun. Who would have thought that Beetrooting could bring so much joy?

  13. @Goll

    As a voter in the division of New England, I am preferencing Adam Blakester a reasonably high profile Independent ahead of Barnaby Joyce, maybe he could defeat Barnaby Hource. However I believe Joyce will be re-elected in New England and might become the leader of the Nationals again 😮

  14. wow heard some of the interview… Barnaby accepts no responsibility… asks no questions…… why is he a minister if he does not oversight big expenditures or the department.
    sounds like Dutton on the Paladin contracts. The issue of Watergate won’t be washed away….

  15. Rocket Rocket @ #638 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    This is a sure sign that Coalition MPs think they’re gone – when they defy the party to try and save their own backsides. I think the French expression is “Sauve qui peut”.


    Liberal MP Sarah Henderson, who is defending her ultra-marginal Victorian seat, has defied her government colleagues over controversial plans to drill for oil in the Great Australian Bight.

    The Corangamite MP joined hundreds of protesters at the weekend who were calling for an end to the proposed drilling project in South Australian waters.

    Pure ‘Modern Liberal’ pre-election bs. She’d vote for it if her party got back into government.

  16. I suspect that Barnaby’s performance with PK tonight has convinced the ALP (if they were not already convinced) to book a RC into Watergate should they form the next Govt.

  17. yabba
    Yep. My point is that you don’t have to destroy the entire $16 million dam to deliver the outcomes. If it is the restoration of floodplain flows you are after it is probably far more important to demolish long lines of the levees.

  18. I read today that the Barwon River is dry and the community is having to truck water in for showers and gets a weekly allocation of drinking water. 🙁

  19. lizzie @ #608 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    Early this morning I heard RN program (the Science Show??) in which the psychological effect of space travel on small groups (of varying races and combinations) was discussed. Particularly relevant in journeys to Mars and farther. Many studies have been carried out by NASA and others, with groups in isolated places such as Antarctica.

    Normal group harmony tends to break down after about 4 months and is only restored after quite intensive group therapy. The optimum preventive strategy, it has been found, is to include, not a therapist, but a comedian, in the group.

    So here we are, an isolated PB group on the Internet, journeying towards a vital election, and who shall keep us from disintegrating?

    Will it be Wayne? Is that his true purpose?


  20. I think the Greens did well calling for a Royal Commission today.

    They risked a bet with Joyce.

    I still say don’t call for a Royal Commission make the case for the Federal Integrity Commission. Tell voters you are putting an end to this stuff permanently and that yes the Integrity Commission will have the teeth to deal with it.

    Remember don’t waste a crisis

  21. Tony Windsor in conversation with Mike Carlton on twitter just now…

    You should listen to this one Mike …Joyce is either sick , drunk , mad , melting down or stupid ….this bloke was the Minister responsible , the guy at the table, the champion of the bush …he blamed Labor for HIS decision .

  22. It’s worth remembering that Joyce, a standout walking talking disaster, is not alone within the LNP, a humble backbencher in his words.
    Mr Sinodinos has never adequately answered questions regarding his Aust. Water role.
    Mr Dutton and his private employment placement agency.
    And we can add Mr Robert, Mr Littleproud ………….
    The Federal LNP Morrison government are a group of shysters.
    Australia , vote to reclaim you government.

  23. ‘The Australian’ has still not noticed Watergate.

    Sure they have. It appears under headlines reading “Shorten ‘throwing mud'” and “Murray-Darling Basin buyback plan is above board, ‘Shorten is becoming desperate’: PM”, the latter word salad appearing above a report that spends its entire first half on quotes from Morrison, Taylor and Birmingham defending the government.

  24. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:53 pm


    I have updated my “Barneytrack” map to Da Lat – I see you have had a change in the weather.

    Is the air fresher up in them thar hills?

    Yep, f#cking freezing.

    It’s about 10° cooler up here.

    There were two main climbs coming up and I noticed the temperature drop during each one.

    Stunning countryside especially up here and this is the heart of the coffee industry, so coffee is king. 🙂

  25. You should listen to this one Mike …Joyce is either sick , drunk , mad , melting down or stupid

    No need for saying ‘either’, Barnaby is amazing at multitasking, could manage all of that at once no wuckas.

  26. [Tony Windsor in conversation with Mike Carlton on twitter just now…]

    Are they ripping each other apart as usual?

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