Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  1. “Some of this photoshopping is getting creative – I wonder if any of this will have any impact?”

    lol

    It’s certainly hurting the “Dead Fish Nats” that’s for sure. People in the bush have had an absolute gut full of Barnaby and co destroying the joint.

  2. 7.30 Report. Phil Coorey should give it a rest with all his mixed metaphors … but then he wouldn’t have anything to say

  4. Darn,

    The $300 million in buybacks all went to tender.

    The $300 million in buybacks was examined by the National Audit Office and there were no adverse finding re Senator Wong or the tender process.

    Cheers.

  5. Darn @ #748 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    As far as I could tell, Joyce was insistent about three main things:
    1. He was obliged to follow legislation that was implemented by Labor,

    2. Penny Wong bought water for $300 million from exactly the same people in the Caymans as he paid the $80 million dollars to,

    3. The Queensland Labor government recommended the purchase of the water from those same people.

    Putting aside his rambling and almost hysterical responses to the questioning for a moment, are any of the above true and if so, does it make any difference to how we should judge his culpability or lack thereof?

    Darn, 2 and 3 must be crap as well. There is no suggestion that the Cayman Islands coy was anything except the parent coy of the two vendors. Further, I bet the Qld Labor Govt just supported buybacks. It didn’t nominate a particular vendor.

  6. Darn @ #747 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    As far as I could tell, Joyce was insistent about three main things:
    1. He was obliged to follow legislation that was implemented by Labor,

    2. Penny Wong bought water for $300 million from exactly the same people in the Caymans as he paid the $80 million dollars to,

    3. The Queensland Labor government recommended the purchase of the water from those same people.

    Putting aside his rambling and almost hysterical responses to the questioning for a moment, are any of the above true and if so, does it make any difference to how we should judge his culpability or lack thereof?

    Joyce knows who benefited from this deal – and the other scams he’s run as Gina’s frontman. He’s more scared of them than he is of us. He may well be correct. This may be why The Ruperts are so desperate at present. ScuMo must be hoping for the Rapture to happen sometime in the next couple of weeks.

  8. Coorey, when asked about the damage of Watergate, seemed to think that there was none to date, stating that we will know by 6.30 tomorrow night, which is the deadline for the Department to provide all the unredacted documents to Shorten and Burke.
    I don’t know, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Watergate has already done some damage. What we don’t know yet is how much.

  12. “I’d like to move a little to the left – not sure how. ”

    Haha yes!

    When I did the different Political Compass test awhile ago I ended up in the far bottom left corner of their compass. It’s a British run website though so they view our politics a bit differently than the ABC version does. They haven’t done a new compass for 2019 but this is the 2016 version.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2016

  13. Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    40m
    Extraordinary interview by
    @PatsKarvelas
    . Half an hour and Barnaby still managed to dodge the question: who got the profits in the Cayman Islands from your record $80m water buy-back #Watergate
    Quote Tweet

    RN Drive
    @RNDrive
    · 2h
    On #rndrive tonight with @PatsKarvelas

    @Barnaby_Joyce answers questions over water buybacks #watergate

  14. Rex PatrickVerified account @Senator_Patrick
    2h2 hours ago

    Listening to @RNDrive . I have seen the brief that was provided to @Barnaby_Joyce. The documentation came from the department, not the QLD Government. Before he approved the purchase he should have made his own inquiry.

  15. Firefox

    Thanks for the serious reply to my cheeky comment.

    You are probably right. That question may have been it. I did not record my results. At the time I was just interested in how low my One Nation score would be.

  16. Boerwar @ #759 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:01 pm

    Coorey, when asked about the damage of Watergate, seemed to think that there was none to date, stating that we will know by 6.30 tomorrow night, which is the deadline for the Department to provide all the unredacted documents to Shorten and Burke.
    I don’t know, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Watergate has already done some damage. What we don’t know yet is how much.

    Aint no way the Department can release those documents when it’s in caretaker mode (unless, I assume, both major parties agree, which won’t happen). So this story is going to run and run.

  19. Penny Wong bought water for $300 million from exactly the same people in the Caymans as he paid the $80 million dollars to

    So, Angus Taylor, because it was his company before he came into parliament, was making money and shipping it off to the Caymans when Labor was in power as well!?!

  20. ab11
    I suspect you are right and the Department will not release the full documents.
    Which is awkward because it has released part of the information during the Caretaker period.
    Caught betwixt and between.

    Oh what a tangled web we weave
    When first we practice to deceive.

  22. Kids should totally get to go to kindy or whatever. They learn how to deal with people that aren’t their siblings or parents and have to work at being humans instead of total grubs. Plus it’s way more fun and the food’s better (or at least is eaten according to the chart). Waiting to do this when they go to school is cruel and unusual punishment for everyone.

  24. If the Ag/Water Resources Department don’t release the documents now, they are the first thing that Tony Bourke will call for if and when he becomes Minister. Betwixt and between indeed.

  26. “Firefox says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:25 pm
    Compared to me and I suspect many others you look like a bit of fascist. (Letting my inner juvenile out tonight.)”

    Me? A fascist? You cannot be serious haha. Mate I’m pretty much the exact opposite of a fascist.
    ——————–
    I thought I made it clear that I was not being very serious. In my many years of left wing life I have found that the more someone claims to be to the left the more you should question their claim.

  28. As boerwar said, they have already released info during caretaker period. So to use that as an excuse now wont fly too well

  29. Regarding Watergate and Barnaby’s ludicrous interview, the critical bit remains the price. The Qld govt never recommended a price, only who had water to sell. The over the top price was negotiated by Canberra. At this stage it is not clear of that was by department or minister. Either way both have a lot to answer.

    As for Joyce’s scream at the ABC interview, he sounded very angry for a man with nothing to hide. And so much for the idea of ministerial responsibility. The other question I would like answered is who redacted the documents? And who ordered them redacted?

  31. The compass is rubbish. For the derisory amount it’s worth I scored well to the left of Labor on economic issues and higher up the y-axis on social issues. I’m rated as agreeing with the Liblings 94% of the time and Labor 79%.

    There were no questions asked about the eternal campaign against Labor by the Lib-Kin. Amusingly, both Hanson and DiNatale are included as hypothetical leaders.

  34. briefly

    I take it you will ignore the results from Vote Compass that show the majority oppose or are neutral on Franking Credits with only 29% opposed to Labor’s plans?

  35. “I thought I made it clear that I was not being very serious. In my many years of left wing life I have found that the more someone claims to be to the left the more you should question their claim.”

    Hehe fair enough.

  36. On the ABC Compass I came out somewhat to the South East of the Greens and a short distance West South West of Labor.

  40. Firefox says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:43 pm
    “Firefox
    Personally, I think kids should start school a couple of years later and finish a couple of years later too. It would mean that they’re more mature and mentally developed when they’re at the business end in year 11 and 12. Again, that’s just a personal thought bubble.
    ————————
    I totally agree with you. I thought I was on my own thinking that kids should be allowed to be kids. Creativity is the most important skill for society to progress. Creativity is learnt in the early years of life through unstructured play. You are given no direction so have to find your own. Formal education is all about structured learning. The longer you can allow children to educate themselves he more creative they will be.

  41. Vote Compass is just one big data mining operation. Nothing more.

    More perfect evidence of ABC budget cuts you will not find.

  42. Boerwar: “It is quite extraordinary that they are still being taken seriously by anyone at all.”

    I’m sure Rex, nath and various others will be happy to explain it to you…

  44. BJ: “These people are vastly more competent than me …”

    Well now, THAT much might well be true, for whatever value competency has on Planet Barnaby.

  45. Oh dear. My initial suspicions have been confirmed:

    A Sri Lankan official accused the National Thowheed Jamaath of being behind a string of Easter bombings at churches and hotels that killed at least 290 people and injured more than 500. Authorities suspected the group had international assistance.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/sri-lanka-easter-bombings/2019/04/21/30739822-647a-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html?utm_term=.6acf4fef8d85

  46. Walked in on the last of the Coorey piece on 7.30. Labor are the ones “with all the explaining to do”. The last 6 years don’t matter. Morrison a “formidable campaigner” as well. Helps to not get asked questions.

  47. Bronwyn Bishop’s old seat of Mackellar, now occupied by the S44 tainted Jason Falinski has another ‘Liberal Lite’ Independent running – Alice Thompson, who used to work for Malcolm Turnbull.

    Heard nothing much about her? That may be about to change – with this developing dump on her twitter feed tonight. Possibly inspired by listening to RN..

  48. “I totally agree with you. I thought I was on my own thinking that kids should be allowed to be kids. Creativity is the most important skill for society to progress. Creativity is learnt in the early years of life through unstructured play. You are given no direction so have to find your own. Formal education is all about structured learning. The longer you can allow children to educate themselves he more creative they will be.”

    Yeah absolutely agree. I wonder how many people out there would support the start being shifted back like that.

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