Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

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  1. Does anyone have an audio link to the BJ interview?

    Cat

    I would be quite skeptical of any domestic Sri Lankan muslim involvement in the bombings. The Sri Lankan christian community has been there 500 years with no major history of ethic conflict with muslims or other groups. The local Tamil/Sinhalese conflict, over land tenure, is the long standing one.

  2. Herald Sun

    Eastern Australia Agriculture gave the Libs $55k before the 2013 election. Angus Taylor was still a director of the parent companybat the time.

  3. And the Herald Sun is straying off the Murdoch reservation, with reporter Anthony Galloway joining in the #watergate pile on.. can someone retrieve the full article?

    ‘Exclusive: The company which received $79 million in water buybacks donated $55,000 to the Liberal Party before the 2013 election. One of the two donations was made while Angus Taylor was still a director of the parent company based in the Cayman Islands’

  4. Bob @8:35
    I think Coorey meant that as a compliment. ALP have all the policy. All Morrison has to remember is the well worn crap the Libs always sprout about Labor.

  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:25 pm

    Burgey @ #331 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:09 pm

    I mock his faith. Sorry, but I do. It’s laughable to see a grown man who’s meant to be somewhat intelligent and in a leadership position basically being heavily into what is a borderline cult.

    It’s not ‘borderline’ at all.

    In your view; but you view doesn’t matter; what matters is the view of members of more mainstream religions. Morrison was a fool and you are disconnected from reality. It was his Howard handshake moment. Sorry.

    And it might be nice if you stop pretending you are a Green voter and come out and admit you are a Liberal party staffer.

  7. Darn says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 7:51 pm

    As far as I could tell, Joyce was insistent about three main things:
    …

    2. Penny Wong bought water for $300 million from exactly the same people in the Caymans as he paid the $80 million dollars to,

    …

    That’s clearly bullshit.

    There was a $300 million buy back, but it included many different licenses from many different owners.

    These guys were just one of them.

  9. Briefly: “There were no questions asked about the eternal campaign against Labor by the Lib-Kin”

    There is no such campaign – a campaign would require far too much discipline. The cause of the effect you observe (and misinterpret, I suggest) is simply that the `Lib-Kin’ (as you persist in calling them) have yet to grow up.

  10. Barney in Da Lat @ #93 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:33 am

    F#ck it’s freezing here!

    A sunny 14°C with an expected top of 28.

    By comparison Go Dau is currently 26°C with a top of 38.

    I had to drag my thermals out of my backpack last night. I wonder if long John’s under shorts will catch on? 🙂

    Ha. Visited Da Lat with my wife a couple of years ago. She is a born and bred delta girl. Was about 20 in the evening, we went down to the town square. I had shorts and shirt. She had a pullover and coat.

  11. guytaur says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:23 pm
    briefly

    I take it you will ignore the results from Vote Compass that show the majority oppose or are neutral on Franking Credits with only 29% opposed to Labor’s plans?

    I would ignore it. Would only be the left who could be bothered responding to it.

  12. Firefox says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:26 pm
    “I’m rated as agreeing with the Liblings 94% of the time and Labor 79%.”

    You little “Libling”!!!

    I’m a classic Lib-kin target….left-leaning, Labor-positive. The trouble for the Lib-kin is I am totally turned off by their interminable anti-Labor campaigns. I want a Labor Government. The Lib-kin try to thwart this at all times and in all places. It follows that I would prefer to eat razor blades than support the gizmo that allies itself with our most serious opponents, the Lib-Libs.

  13. “Health warning: if you drink everytime BJ says “Labor” or “Penny Wong” or “Queensland Government” you’ll be on the floor by 5:00”
    By the sound of it, Barnaby had a drink every time he uttered a word with one or more syllables.

  14. E. G. Theodore says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:47 pm
    Briefly: “There were no questions asked about the eternal campaign against Labor by the Lib-Kin”

    There is no such campaign – a campaign would require far too much discipline. The cause of the effect you observe (and misinterpret, I suggest) is simply that the `Lib-Kin’ (as you persist in calling them) have yet to grow up.

    Red, you are too kind to the G-Libs. Not a chance goes by for them. For the Gs, everything is a pretext to sledge Labor. Everything. They are on the same page as Tony Abbott in this.

  15. There was a story in one of the papers that Barnyard’s last election campaign was basically just a pub crawl. Seems nothing has changed (except he’s got even more sorrows to drink away)

  18. I know he’s hopeless at the best of times, but has Joyce ever put up a more incoherent, mendacious and rambling diatribe, like, ever?

  20. Regardless of #watergate per se, there is a lower tier story to be told about Minister Taylor’s ethics in setting up a shelf company in the Caymans.

    Should the values of such a person morally preclude him from being a MP, let alone a Minister with Agriculture or Water responsibilities.

  21. I thought this was particularly prescient from Ex-public servant , Nadine.

    “Watergate doesn’t just represent a massive potential scandal – it represents all the pretty injustices, the smoothed-over maladministrations and misappropriations, the hurt and the lives ruined because honest servants stood up for truth.”

  23. How many people go to Hillsong?

    According to the church, over 100,000 people attend services each week at the church or one of its 80 affiliated churches located worldwide (around 40,000 in Australia).

    Seventh-day Adventist are not a cult

    It is reported that today over 25 million people worship weekly in Seventh-day Adventist churches worldwide. The church operates in 202 out of 230 countries and areas recognized by the United Nations, making it “probably the most widespread Protestant denomination”.

  27. Thanks sprocket! Aargh! Patricia Karvalas is good. Barnaby Joyce may be the best water retailing politician in Australia, but he is sounding like a broken used car salesman.

    Listening carefully, Barnaby did know who the water was going to, he went silent at one point in that respect. The rest of the interview was a consistent attempt to say “Labor, Labor, Labor” when asked about his own behavior. But I think Barnaby did know who benefitted from the deal.

  28. 15 hours of kindergarten a week is not going to stop any kid from being a kid.

    It is, however, going to broaden their minds and develop their social skills.

  31. Incidentally, at times Joyce says (this interview being outside the protection of parliament) that Labor governments were incompetent in their past dealings. Is that libelous?

  32. This is Barnyard’s follow up tweet, where he was watching 7.30 on Watergate – plus some response from Tony Windsor

  33. Socrates @ #831 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:10 pm

    Incidentally, at times Joyce says (this interview being outside the protection of parliament) that Labor governments were incompetent in their past dealings. Is that libelous?

    Allegtions have to be pretty vicious in politics to be libelous. The defence of fair comment would cover that.

  34. The high ON score seems to be linked to their answers on euthanasia. Apparently (according to Vote Compass) they’re the party which supports voluntary euthanasia strongly. Seems counter intuitive to me.

  35. Catching up with my Monday Copy of the New York Times.

    These turn up as articles. I quote from the podcast.

    Dan Mcghan was the Narrator for the Mueller Report. President Trump’s most dangerous witness

    Its no wonder the Democrats are stepping up their calls for impeachment

  36. “Firefox, you are 28% One Nation”

    Not entirely sure what the results mean – probably not much. When I did the Compass a few days ago I came out about 82 Labor, 80 Green, 45 Liberal and 37 Green. I suppose all parties agree on some things, like what color the sky is, although the “Liberals” would swear blind that it was green if it suited their agenda and Newscrap would support them.

  37. Socrates @ #826 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:06 pm

    Thanks sprocket! Aargh! Patricia Karvalas is good. Barnaby Joyce may be the best water retailing politician in Australia, but he is sounding like a broken used car salesman.

    Listening carefully, Barnaby did know who the water was going to, he went silent at one point in that respect. The rest of the interview was a consistent attempt to say “Labor, Labor, Labor” when asked about his own behavior. But I think Barnaby did know who benefitted from the deal.

    Of course he does – but if told us which of his owners told him to do it he might not survive to the RC. His political career’s gone. He’s just a disposable ex-mob accountant now – like Angus Taylor. Mind you, I suspect that Joyce knows where some other bodies are buried too, or he wouldn’t have survived so long with such an appalling record.

  38. BSA Bob @ #796 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:35 pm

    Walked in on the last of the Coorey piece on 7.30. Labor are the ones “with all the explaining to do”. The last 6 years don’t matter. Morrison a “formidable campaigner” as well. Helps to not get asked questions.

    I thought he was remarkably hesitant. He was obviously tasked to keep the “close election” vibe alive but he had a lot of difficulty finding a logical path to that conclusion.

    Labor has already explained all the negatives and taken the applicable popularity hits that entailed. From here on its all promises of good stuff and tearing the government to bits.

  39. Firefox,

    Apparently I agree with ON on not extending preschool to 3 year olds lol. Not exactly an issue that’s at the top of my agenda.

    Personally, I think kids should start school a couple of years later and finish a couple of years later too. It would mean that they’re more mature and mentally developed when they’re at the business end in year 11 and 12. Again, that’s just a personal thought bubble. I think those reasons for opposing 3 year olds doing preschool are probably much different to ON’s. I’m assuming they oppose it because they don’t want the government spending more money on education, which I totally disagree with.

    You are absolutely correct that kids who start school relatively later age-wise, c.f. their peers, achieve better.

    However, preschool is not school.
    There is a large body of evidence going back 40 years showing that children who are in preschool from age 3 do better than their peers who only start preschool at age 4, or those children who never attend preschool.

    In the UK, all children start preschool at age 3, and those from low socio-economic backgrounds start preschool at age 2. This is very effective at helping children achieve better in life, and contributes in a narrowing of outcomes between children of different socio-economic status.

    I presume the Tories int he UK are too pre-ocupied with Brexit to notice this rampant socialism made into policy, or they would have got rid of public early childhood education by now.

    A longitudinal study undertaken in the US in the 1970s and 1980s assessing the impact of early childhood education on low socioeconomic groups was reported with the headline: “Either build preschools now, or prisons in 20 years time”.

    Also, I will do the ABC voter compass and post my results.

  43. It quite interesting when you get into it:

    More Mormans.
    59,770
    The membership reported by the church in Australia is approximately 0.57% of the country’s population. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics census in 2011 had only 59,770 who described themselves as Latter-day Saints or 0.28% of the population.

    Scientology does not do well
    The number of Scientology adherents varies depending upon the source: according to the 2011 census, it has a declining population, 2,163 members, down from 2,507 in 2006, while Scientology itself has claimed 150,000 members in Australia. The 2016 census records 1,684 people describing their religion as Scientology.

    A conspiracy google won’t tell me how many Pastafarianism there are. In the spirit of evangelizing.

    https://pastafarians.org.au/
    “With millions, if not thousands, of devout worshipers, the Church of the FSM is widely considered a legitimate religion, even by its opponents—mostly fundamentalist Christians, who have accepted that our God has larger balls than theirs.”

  44. Question @ 8.43
    I hope you’re right about Coorey. I walked in on the last of the interview & may have missed the tone of it.
    I’ve got a hair trigger intolerance for the clutch of journalists who gave Abbott his air cushioned ride in 2010-13. Coorey wasn’t the worst by a long shot but he was there .

  45. Rhwombat agreed re Joyce. He must have something on them or he would not have been preselected to put at risk such an obviously safe seat.

    On Vote Compass I came out about half way between Labor and Greens, closer to Labor on economic but Greens on social.

    I struggled with some of the characterisations of the Greens as being very left wing in VC. They have not in the past supported progressive changes to tax and IR. There is an element if middle class in them that is to the right of Labor on some economic issues, unless you divorce wage justice from economic progressiveness. Also it is based entirely on policy statements, and not on voting patterns in parliament. So while I support the concept of vote compass, I found the characterisation of the parties as simplistic in this one.

  46. “I know he’s hopeless at the best of times, but has Joyce ever put up a more incoherent, mendacious and rambling diatribe, like, ever?”

    Yes. But that was watching him debate Penny Wong in the Senate over Climate some years ago. She calmly got up when he had wound down and informed the Senate that she would be happy answer his question if she had the slightest idea as to what he had just said.

  48. ajm @ 9.17
    Thanks for your reply too. It seems I may’ve been a bit unkind to Phil & if that’s so I apologise. I definitely got the “close election vibe” you mention.
    Reiterating my intolerance for the section of the 4th Estate that pissed up & laughed as Abbott swanned in.

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