Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
@Kieran Gilbert
PM & C chief says the public service has not modelled the ALP’s climate change policies #AusVotes19
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4tgj8jU0AAadzH?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4tgke8UIAAcNUk?format=jpg&name=large
The Labor Party has removed mention of leader Bill Shorten from campaign material especially in marginal seats because of his poor rating among voters…A source has told the newspaper the exclusion is a deliberate strategy after Mr Shorten’s popularity continued to tank with voters.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6082369/shorten-left-off-labor-campaign-material/
Sources sources and you wonder why I criticise media @nath
C@t:
Real Time had a billionaires donation drive a little while ago 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahpp27WAT2M
I received, on my mobile phone, a robo-poll call which is perilously close to a push-poll. I’m in Bennelong.
It started with a statement “listen to his message” followed by ~45 seconds of LNP campaign statements, followed by “Who will receive your vote in the HoR? Click 1 for Liberal, 2 for Labor, 3 for Greens, 4 Other”
I clicked 2
Then “How certain are you? Click 1 for very, 2 for …”
Getting impatient I clicked 1.
Then “How did you vote in the last election? Click 1 for Liberal, 2 for Labor, 3 for ….”
By now I decided to have fun and clicked 1.
Mr Robo asked one more question then lost interest and finished the call.
Hardly a balanced poll. Almost certainly a Liberal “poll”, giving me a potted campaign LNP advertisement and then asking for my response. No Labor advertisement, BTW.
Have any other PBers had similar?
I really wonder about these published “seat poll” results, too. Were they ‘pushed’?
Given the need to keep LNP supporters campaigning against such strong adversity it’s possible some polls are being biased.
Who are you campaigning for Nath?
SCOUT
says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 8:49 am
Who are you campaigning for Nath?
________________________
None of the above.
Morning all
Ha anyone claimed responsibility for the atrocious attacks in Sri Lanka?
Zoidlord @ #51 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:45 am
Test.
That report about Labor leaving out Shorten from campaign materials in the Canberra Times says it is from The Australian, who quote an unnamed source.
Seriously??
Maude Lynne
Alice Workman fitting in nicely among Rupert’s orcs
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/invisible-shorten-gets-brush-from-campaign-flyers/news-story/f4358190bb6a3442d514b8997456af7d
Maude Lynne @ #60 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:55 am
Just got my local LNP candidate’s leaflet in the letterbox this morning (Griffith, Qld). Still looking for the microdot that might have Morrison’s name in it.
@lynlinking:
Labor pledges to terminate half-a-billion-dollar Great Barrier Reef Foundation grant canberratimes.com.au/story/6082245/… via @canberratimes
I do believe proportional representation in the House of Representatives would be a good thing. The electoral system that would be most likely used is Single Transferable Vote with multi-member electorates. Smaller states such as Tasmania would be one electorate with say 5 members, while the bigger states would be broken up into regional based electorates with at least 5 members each. Ideally the House of Representatives needs to be increased to around 250 members to resolve Tasmania’s over-representation in the House of Representatives. Although that would have to require removing the constitutional requirement for the House of Representatives being twice the size of the Senate.
The good thing about it is that instead of a two party system, we would have a multi party system like they have in European nations. Along with policies being developed that would more better reflect the views of the electorate.
Also constitutional amendments being proposed should be debated firstly in a citizens assembly like they do in Ireland. That would allow for much needed amendments to our constitution like amending s.44 to allow dual citizens to run for the Commonwealth Parliament.
Seems that Workman hasn’t learnt much from her bollocking over Hussar and Lyndsey.
Obviously, she’s moved on to an organisation with deeper pockets to cover her unsourced frolics.
Victoria @ #58 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:52 am
No. However, this is a very good report about it:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/easter-sunday-tragedy-a-terrorist-attack-by-religious-extremists-20190422-p51g1k.html
No they don’t. Labor is still the favourite in ALL those seats, (Bass is the closest with William reporting it as $1.70 Labor, $1.80 coalition).
MSNBC harassing Mueller has he goes about his private business attending Church on Easter Sunday.
Greensborough Growler @ #65 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:05 am
I’m also not at all surprised that nath was out of the blocks like Usain Bolt to quote the smear here today. And to try to cover its tracks back to The Australian and the discredited smear merchant, Alice Workman. nath truly is a grub in word and deed.
A public hospital outsourced to be run by a private provider – I guess this is what we can expect from the new Sydney Hospital at French’s Forrest
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2019/04/21/mildura-base-hospital-patients/
Thanks C@t
It is horrendous to say the least
C@tmomma @ #69 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:08 am
I am blessed that I don’t get to see that person’s posts. So, I don’t feel inclined to make judgements about his actions and motivations.
Ms Workman and her current employer might care to write another article about Liberal candidates omitting the name of their party on advertising material.
For example, roadside signs in Canberra proclaiming “Seselja your local candidate” with no Liberal Party mention. (Perhaps there is a microscopic Liberal Party logo sufficient to meet legal requirements but not observable at 80-100 km/h.)
There is certainly no picture of Morrison on these signs!
I do not agree that Morrison inviting photographers inside the Hall to take pics of himself “at worship” is equal to Shorten and his family being snapped as they walk to church.
The concern is not with the coverage of Ad Man from Mad Men at his “Church” – because he can follow any “religion” of his choice
What the media should have focussed on is the material on display within that “Church”
The material that tells that “God makes the sun come up”, that “God makes the grass green”, that “God makes babies” and everything being because of God
So decrying science
Hence holding a lump of coal in the Parliament of the Nation
And what else?
So, with our banks reducing their Term Deposit Rates in anticipation of further cuts in the Cash Rate due to the economic malaise of the Nation, God will repair the economy?
Then Penalty Rates for working on a Sunday – because this is the day of God and you should be in prayer not employment?
Ad Man from Mad Men is not a normal person – he is an individual of his God, a God we are all beholden to including over and above science and the achievements of human beings
That is the danger
Before we get to the right wing ideology the likes of Stiglitz address, along with the consequences (which we endure)
Good Morning
Nath has trolled cat well today. Quoted the red rag to the bull and provided a link to the story.
He made no personal comment.
Of course Nath may not pay to get past the paywall to access the Murdoch propaganda.
Well played Nath well played.
Yes Cat. Just like he has been trolling people here in denial about Mr Shorten’s popularity with voters.
Maude Lynn
“PM & C chief says the public service has not modelled the ALP’s climate change policies #AusVotes19 ”
Thanks and not surprising. Never asks for facts that expose your lies. We have already head from former RBA board economist Warwick McCibbin it would reduce GDP growth by about 0.6% by 2030. That is about $8 billion in present day terms – less than what the coalition has already easted on the MDB scheme.
The Labor policy also allows new investment to resolve power constraints and reduce power costs. Jay Weatherall’s SA big battery did exactly that. The net economic impact may well by positive.
Thanks BK for the roundup this morning. 😻
♋♋♋♋♋♋♋
All together now choir –
♫All things bright and ♪ beautiful
♫All creatures la de dum de da ♪
😍😍😍
Shouldn’t be too hard you’d think.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/18/we-really-dont-know-just-how-bad-the-level-of-wealth-inequality-in-this-county-is
We need a highly progressive tax system that redistributes income and wealth.
But we also need predistribution that reduces inequality of pre-tax income and wealth.
There are five main predistribution measures that we should implement:
1. Shrinking the size of the financial sector.
2. Reducing the pricing power of large firms.
3. Changing employment law to remove the bias in favour of employers.
4. Maintaining genuine full employment with price stability at all times.
5. Enacting a maximum net worth and a maximum annual income.
Shrinking the financial sector is a key measure for achieving this goal. The growth of the financial sector has been the single biggest contributor to inequality of wealth and income. We need a financial sector that does two things: 1. Help the central bank to run the payments system; and 2. Assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. That’s it. Everything else should be banned.
Reducing the pricing power of large firms is another predistribution measure. Anti-trust laws and nationalizing important industries can reduce the scope for monopoly and oligopoly conditions to emerge. Ideally, profit-seeking firms should be price-takers, not price-makers.
Changing employment law to remove the bias in favour of employers is a third predistribution measure.
The wages share of national income has fallen from a peak of 58 percent in the mid 1970s to only 47 percent in 2018.
Redistribution of income from labour to capital automatically increases inequality of personal income because the ownership of business wealth is highly concentrated in the hands of the highest income earners. The highest income earners own business wealth in the forms of direct firm ownership, share ownership, and ownership of other securities.
This is what a truly progressive employment policy would look like:
We need to lift the national minimum wage so that a full time year-round worker does not experience poverty. Twenty-five AUD per hour would be a fair minimum wage today in view of productivity growth since 1970.
We need to legislate limits on the casualization of the workforce.
We need to legislate expanded rights for casual workers to convert to permanent employee status.
We need to legislate a broader definition of employee so that it includes all workers whose work arrangements and pay are clearly dependent on the decisions of a major firm.
We need to regulate labour hire firms more tightly. We should legislate compulsory licensing of labour hire firms. We should legislate joint liability of the labour hire firm and the ultimate employer for employment and safety standards.
We need to allocate more resources to enforcing existing statutory protections for vulnerable workers such as migrant workers and international students.
We need to change industrial relations laws to allow for multi-employer or industry-level bargaining in order to reduce the lopsided power that employers currently enjoy. This is especially important in the private sector and in small workplaces (where collective bargaining is almost non-existent).
We need to relax restrictions on unions so that unions can be well-resourced and can represent workers effectively.
We need to limit the ability of employers to terminate Enterprise Agreements during the re-negotiations of these agreements. Employers should not be permitted to threaten the drastic reductions in pay and conditions that can flow from pushing workers off an EA and onto the minimum standards of the relevant award.
We need to establish a timely and effective umpire that has the resources to enforce collective agreements.
We need to enact proactive measures to help systematically disadvantaged people, including people with disabilities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, migrant workers, young workers, women, and the long-term unemployed. This proactive assistance must address all aspects of people’s experiences of work, including training, lifelong learning, job search, recruitment, and job retention.
Implementing a genuine full employment strategy is a fourth predistribution measure. If unemployment is only 1 or 2 percent, under-employment is zero, and hidden unemployment is zero, workers have more bargaining power than they do in the macroeconomy we have now, where unemployment is 5 percent, underemployment is 8 percent, and there are 900,000 hidden unemployed Australians.
A federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee is the most efficient way of maintaining genuine full employment with stable prices at all times. NAIRU full employment is not true full employment.
Fifth, we should enact a maximum net worth and a maximum annual income. This would deter organizations from offering absurdly high compensation packages in the first place.
In a monetary production economy it is important to be honest and upfront about financial remuneration.
People of different levels of skill and responsibility and work ethic deserve different levels of financial remuneration. Our society’s deeply ingrained norm of fairness demands this. The real question is what degree of inequality is necessary and appropriate to reward people for their contributions to society.
Perhaps a full-time GP should be paid 6 times the full-time minimum wage. Perhaps a surgeon should be paid 9 times the full-time minimum wage.
It would focus the minds of policymakers and the community to define appropriate remuneration for various roles in terms of multiples of the full-time minimum wage.
It is my value judgement that no work justifies an annual income that is more than 20 times the full-time minimum wage.
It is my value judgement that no work justifies a net worth that is more than 200 times the full-time annual minimum wage.
I believe that our tax system should tax both income and wealth progressively to the point that any annual income above 20 times the full-time minimum wage is taxed away completely, and any net worth above 200 times the full-time minimum wage is taxed way completely.
That kind of wage structure and wealth structure would provide ample scope to distinguish between different levels of skill, responsibility, and work ethic.
Out society need not tolerate excessive degrees of inequality of income and wealth.
Beyond a certain point, inequality of income and wealth undermines trust, social cohesion, shared civic identity, and economic dynamism.
It is not in the public interest to permit unlimited incomes and unlimited wealth.
I think that health care, legal services, financial services and many other public policy domains would benefit from frank and civic-minded discussions about money: how much financial reward is sufficient to recognize specific types of knowledge, skill, and work ethic?
At present we obscure that issue. We are not sufficiently transparent about our incomes and wealth levels. Employers know how much their employees are paid but employees have very limited knowledge about the going rate for a person in their role. This gives an unfair bargaining advantage to employers.
In a monetary production economy we cannot afford to be squeamish about money. A certain degree of inequality of income of wealth can be morally justified. But we need to be open about what that degree is. We need to build a well-informed and carefully discussed social consensus on these questions.
So let’s use taxation for redistribution, but let’s not forget about predistribution. We should be reducing inequality at the source. We should be reducing inequality of pre-tax wealth and income.
Some interesting information on ‘entry level’ EV car pricing in Australia:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/734546/2019-hyundai-kona-electric-pricing-specs/
So, there still seems to be a ~$A20K price differential between an entry level EV and its ICE equivalent- to much for me to consider.
I’m actually starting the process of replacing my current small suv – a BMW X1 – with something slightly bigger – mainly to fit our three grandkids into as they grow up. I don’t think an EV is viable price wise at this stage.
However, I’m warming to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – which has a base model price point of $45K and a pure EV range of up to 56km – which is actually adequate for our household’s daily usage. Plus the hybrid system would give us the flexibility for the fairly rare longer journeys we undertake. This vehicle has been on the market for a couple of years, so I’m hoping that by the end of the year I can pick up a second hand one for about $30K. If not, I’ll probably go for a Mazda CX-5 or equivalent ICE and go full electric in about 5 years time.
Anyone listened to this. He tweeted it an hour ago
Michael West
@MichaelWestBiz
·
1h
Doing ABC Radio Sydney in a moment on water
Fess
Exactly. What I have said. It is a very simple question indeed
We dont need to wait for a royal commission. Who financially benefitted from the sale.
This question was put on by Michael West on his Twitter feed
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelWestBiz/status/1120104162581069824/photo/1
A friend of mine bought a new PHEV a few years ago and loves it. Mainly uses it for driving around town, and the occasional trips to Perth. She reckons it costs her about $60 to drive to Perth and back as opposed to $100+ which is what I pay with my non-EV car.
Vic:
I’d also like to know what prompted Barnaby to change his mind on water buybacks. Previously he was dead against them. What changed his mind?
And all Labor need to insist upon is that Morrison disclose the beneficiary of the sale. No weasel words. Simple question that requires an answer pronto
Vic
A direct report on 3aw this morning from a channel 9 reporter in Sri Lanka mentioned how authorities are being accused of not heeding an early warning of a possible attack. The reporter went on to say there was speculation it was an Islamic group that was the subject of that warning.
It makes sense doesn’t it, in a macabre kind of way? You kill our people while they are worshiping their god (Christchurch) and we’ll kill your people while they are worshiping your god. Very predictable really. I wondered at the time of the Christchurch atrocity how long it would take a bunch of Islamic lunatics to respond in kind. It looks like we may now have the answer.
Fess
What changed his mind. Could be a financial kick back?
Falsehood of popular leaders
Coming into the
2016 federal election
Libs/Nats = 90 seats
The propaganda by the media was Turnbull vs Shorten ,Libs/nats would gain seats as Turnbull was popular
After the 2016 federal election , Libs/nats lost 14 seats in the house of reps under popular Turnbull
Libs/Nats = 76 seats in the house of reps
Labor gain 14 seats in the house of reps under the unpopular Shorten
By -Elections once again the media propaganda Turnbull vs Shorten , Labor to lose seats under unpopular Shorten
Result Labor retain all of their seats , some with larger margins
Libs/nats under Popular Turnbull could not pick up Mayo
Victoria @ #84 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:28 am
That’s a lot of words for Barnaby to take in!
Victoria.
Yes we will need a Royal Commission into this. Call it a Federal ICAC and make it one of the issues it deals with.
As Cheryl Kernot pointed out as things are today only a Royal Commission can compel revealing documents etc. Example. What was in the Coalition Agreement between Joyce and Turnbull?
F#ck it’s freezing here!
A sunny 14°C with an expected top of 28.
By comparison Go Dau is currently 26°C with a top of 38.
I had to drag my thermals out of my backpack last night. I wonder if long John’s under shorts will catch on? 🙂
citizen
Rupert and his Ministry of Propaganda does not work that way 🙁
Story is if the pro coalition media who have shown there is no intelligence what soever
Trying to make it a leadership popularity again between the leader of the liberal Party and Labor Party
Labor Party will win it again , by gaining seats
The libs/nats will lose seats
I understand that Murdoch media is using nath as an adviser on politics
lefty_e@7:34am
But but but the Murdoch press is saying that it is a great moment in this campaign.
The odds have tightened. I am flabbergasted that people are even considering voting for this mob after what happened in last 8 months let alone in the last 5 1/2 years.
What luck, on the day The Australian cranks the BOO LABOR dial up to 10.5 they ‘forget’ to put them behind the pay wall.
Unamed sources claiming absence of Shorten in certain campaign material
Or
Unamed sources claiming absence to see here of $53 million water buyback profit going to a governmnent minister’s ex employer
MSM and ABC (and PB) see no reason have a little look at these matters and possibly find something of interest..
Which could possibly be more significant?
Unamed bloggers beating the drum about the every campaign accusation of missing campaign material versus a missing $53 million!
The extreme right wing structure in full swing……….. nothing to see here.
Added to the empty Darling River, the GBRF, Border protection and Christmas Is.,the Manus Is. security contracts, the airport monopolies, politicians and tax havens, a right wing American owning the major share of our media, and a very long list of commercial in confidence matters.
The existance of betting markets suggesting the LNP have any chance of winning the next election is itself a dreadful reflection of a country and its voters willing to accommodate a textbook example of a right wing regime, ruling by decree.
Just have a look at the propaganda in todays newspapers masquerading as news!
‘Smoke and mirrors’ everywhere including PB and ‘not a drop to drink’.
Greensborough Growler @ #72 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:15 am
He turns up every now and again in other peoples’ quotes. 🙂