Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Tristo @ #302 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:33 pm
We just need the L/NP and Labor to listen to the science.
Tristo
Reminds me – “History repeats itself – the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”
Stop Adani is nowhere near as powerful or widespread a movement as the anti Franklin protests.
However, like the Franklin, it will require a Labor government to fix the situation.
Inspired by Kate, I’ve perused the website of the L/NP brochure better known as the West so my fellow Bludgers don’t have to. I found the following gems:
HITTING BACK
‘Gutless grubs’: ScoMo takes aim at faith trolls
FEDERAL ELECTION
Fears for young workers over Labor wages policy
ELECTION 2019
Union repents for Easter crack at ScoMo
Exclusive!
INCONVENIENT TRUTHS
Shorten slipping and sliding as campaign continues
Follow the money and you’ll find the momentum
Lanai Scarr
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
Fight for Lodge will be hard and dirty
Mark Riley
PERILS OF PAULINE
One Nation ship of fools could sink Scott Morrison
Mark Riley
Federal Election 2019: Labor puts foot down after Bill Shorten scrubbed from local candidate hand-outs
Lanai Scarr, Exclusive
Try as I may, I was not able to locate an impartial or pro Labor headline or story. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence.
Morrisons campaign so far hasn’t provided much of anything positive re the Coalition.
Shortens campaign so far has been short-circuited by that superannuation gaffe.
A very below average performance by both which isn’t so surprising.
grimace @ #303 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:36 pm
Something, something, Freo Dockers is as close as you’re likely to get.
Tristo @ #300 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:33 pm
Bollocks
The anti Franklin dam movement stopped a dam that was going to be built.
Liberal campaign spokesman and trade minister Simon Birmingham said the $443 million grant was evidence the party was getting on with the job.
…of shoveling taxpayers’ $ out the door as quickly as they can before they go down in flames.
zoomster @ #304 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:35 pm
Now why would you be downplaying the importance of the Adani issue to voters …?
Oh that’s right, because your Labor Party is hopelessly divided on the issue.
Saying that they’re saving the best dirt is kind of clever, in a young-lib-gee-I’m-clever kind of way. They don’t have to say what the dirt is, but they can plant the idea that there is “best dirt”, and it’s gonna be good, so gee that Shorten must be dodgy, huh?
Of course there may be no dirt – no one will keep track of this kind of rubbish statement – but just saying “we’ve got dirt” is all they want to get out there.
And whatever dirt they have can’t be great dirt if they expect its shelf life to be only one week.
And ignoring that ‘Kill Bill’ has been the constant tactic employed by these doofuses for the last 5 years, but hey, let’s keep flogging that horse because it’s the only one we’ve got.
Oh well, either Shorten has done something that will end his political career, and we’ll find out shortly with a returned LNP lying thieving pretend government, or this is all just more bollocks from the party, and supporting media, that thinks shoveling out the manure is all they have to do to get the votes flowing the right way.
Discussion of betting odds about an election is a perfectly normal topic on a psephological blog. Especially given how little useful polling there is at the moment.
Diogenes @ #310 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:42 pm
Do you ever get asked about the odds of a successful procedure?
Nikki Savva said on Insiders during the last election campaign that there would be some very bad dirt on Shorten in the last week.
Nada
Zip
@Vogon Poet
The Stop Adani movement will do much more than stop a coal mine from being built. I predict it is the genesis for a movement that will bring about an economic revolution in this country. This economic revolution will transition our economy and rebuild our manufacturing industries.
Just saying. But, dropping a dirt file in the last week after 30% of people have already voted is a dubious strategy.
Its just full on Kill Bill strategy by the MSM propoganda unit.When you have nothing left you just play the man not the ball.
poroti says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 11:57 am
Has Shorten found the “one ring” yet?
And;
“Christians will be persecuted”?
Greedy bastards sucking from the public teat when they don’t need assistance might, but Christians, nah! 🙂
Murdoch overreaching to the point of looking stupidly biased.If voters dont see through that, there is no hope for them.
Diogenes @ #310 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:42 pm
I agree with that while being strongly opposed to gambling generally, particularly on the scale it has now attained in Australia and the saturation promotion.
Rex Douglas
Like the signs, but the kids did better, they also managed a bigger crowd.
If I was the greens I would be worries; old and small. It really does reflect the failure of the Greens.
Why arn’t the kids their?
Does anyone know if Rupert Murdoch is still in the country?
Greensborough Growler @ #4023 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Without wishing to preempt Diog’s response, but yes, all branches of medicine frequently get asked the question of what will (as opposed to may) happen if… however it is a fundamentally different question to what do the polls tell us. Most situations in medicine are asking the question of what will happen in the individual instance (n=1), to which the only response can be, well in my experience (or more likely, in the reported experience of others that I can access) x % of a given population (hopefully n > 20) have this outcome. These are not betting odds.
frednk @ #321 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:52 pm
We know how the kids feel…. and yet who here keeps voting for parties that continue to prop up thermal coal mining and export… ?
C@tmomma says:
Oh he’s still watching.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 12:53 pm
My first thought when I saw the photo was that he was bidding for a blow job. 🙂
Nicholas: “I believe that our tax system should tax both income and wealth progressively to the point that any annual income above 20 times the full-time minimum wage is taxed away completely, and any net worth above 200 times the full-time minimum wage is taxed way completely.”
When Robert McNamara, then President (i.e. CEO) of Ford was interviewed in the early 60’ his salary was about nine times that of the average Ford worker. He was asked by the interviewer why (as President) he didn’t simply increase his salary to a level then thought outrageous (25 times that of the average worker, say). His reply was along the lines that he could indeed increase it almost arbitrarily (and certainly to 25x), but if he were to do so then “that would be shameful”…
Does anyone have any idea of what it would take to defuse #watergate? I can’t see anything that could, but I’m just a biased bubble-dweller.
Perhaps they could explain then why God DIDN’T intervene in the election that Hitler won back in the 1930’s, propelling him into a complete takeover of the country and World War two. I’m sure the souls of six million murdered Jews would like the answer to that one.
I mock his faith. Sorry, but I do. It’s laughable to see a grown man who’s meant to be somewhat intelligent and in a leadership position basically being heavily into what is a borderline cult.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 1:30 pm
I don’t know, the journos look like they’re not far off out numbering the protesters. 🙂
Darn
Ah, so that accounts for his smug “chosen by God” smirk. I wonder what wife jenny thinks. It is not easy to live with a saint!!!
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:01 pm
frednk @ #321 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:52 pm
Rex Douglas
…..
We know how the kids feel…. and yet who here keeps voting for parties that continue to prop up thermal coal mining and export… ?
Very nice; why were they not there? You seem to have failed to engage a group that has shown a great interest in the issues the the Greens claim to be the reason for their existence?
They can make better protest signs; they can run better protects; they can engage there Grandparents who remember the protects of their youth.
The Greens protest looks like a bunch of old washed out Trots. You are losing members, you are losing votes, you are doing something very wrong. It really is time for the Greens to do a bit of self reflection.
lizzie
It’s the smirk of a “god chose me and you are all going to hell” kinda guy.
This bloke is the ‘real’ christian.
interesting that sff are running in Calare and not Parkes… would have thought they would have a better chance in parkes…. that is where nsw water is.
now what happens do onp or ldp run…..?
this is also one of the areas where ABN is strongest
lizzie says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:10 pm
..
Ah, so that accounts for his smug “chosen by God” smirk. I wonder what wife jenny thinks. It is not easy to live with a saint!!!
I noticed she didn’t have her hand up to be noodled.
‘rhwombat says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:05 pm
Does anyone have any idea of what it would take to defuse #watergate? I can’t see anything that could, but I’m just a biased bubble-dweller.’
1. No new ‘facts’ to feed the story.
2. Nothing to see here, move along.
3. OBE.
4. Newspapers like ‘The Australian’ refusing to mention it at all.
frednk
I’m beginning to suspect that there’s a meaning of “noodled” that I wasn’t aware of. 😉
frednk
Perhaps the pastor had called out “Do we have any Prime Ministers in the house ?”
lizzie says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:16 pm
frednk
I’m beginning to suspect that there’s a meaning of “noodled” that I wasn’t aware of.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqPw_kZRtj4
frendnk @ #334 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:12 pm
Are you sure you’re not just missing the point ..?
Barney in Da Lat @ #332 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:10 pm
It’s almost like you’d be pleased if people lost interest in protesting against thermal coal mining and export …?
Barratt
lizzie @ #342 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:17 pm
Why is Joel wanting to continue propping-up the live export trade and all it’s cruelties ?
They were the word of god here last week. I wonder what changed. Hmmm.
On ABC 1pm radio news Morrison denied everything about Watergate and said nothing to do with Joyce and Taylor.
Burgey @ #331 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:09 pm
It’s not ‘borderline’ at all.
Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s helpfulness of Shorten’s campaign.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-22/how-malcolm-turnbulls-easter-tweets-helped-the-labor-campaign/11034950
Barney in Da Lat @ #325 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:04 pm
Not much to do in Vietnam today?