Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
BH
Blame Turnbull’s No Broadband Network for you.
Bill Shorten says he listens to the science.
If he did he’d ban thermal coal exports.
Just like the Libs, he’s talking out of his backside.
#samesame
Darn @ #242 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 12:06 pm
Unchanged from a couple of month’s ago. Labor 80-85, Libs 60-65 and up to 10 Indies.
So the favoured journo has been granted an interview.
We shall see…
I keep coming back his Pats tweet and what Joyce is trying to say:
Of course it was voluntary. They wanted to sell the right to collect flood water, for which they apparently would remove levies and storage, which appears still wanting according to ab’s TAI piece (thanks), for a price supposedly independently valued. By whom is another question.
I reckon Karvelis is an excellent journo and I like her punchy persistent questioning technique. I’m sure she has personal preferences. But, overall she seems to present in a balanced way.
Her responding on air to Joyce’s tweet had some risks. But, that action has probably given that issue a big pushalong since.
Libs lose 2 more candidates to S44 doubts. Sam Kayal, the candidate for Werriwa, and Courtney Nguyen, the candidate for Fowler, are no longer endorsed, due to section 44 dual citizenship issues.
Why did she have her phone on anyway. She looked mighty chuffed when the tweet came in, kinda starry eyed starfcking look, I thought.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/extremely-risky-1-2-million-voter-data-project-abandoned-by-liberals-20190417-p51eym.html
‘Extremely risky’ $1.2 million voter data project abandoned by Liberals
By Max Koslowski
April 21, 2019 — 11.45pm
The Liberal Party has abandoned a $1.2 million data harvesting system amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk, as the government deals with an internal rift over software once touted as its electoral “silver bullet”.
Liberal sources who have worked with the party on its digital campaign strategy over the past three years say a rift between the federal organisation and state branches underpinned the ditching of i360, a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia.
Thanks GG
Thanks WWP, I appreciate your insights about tax policy.
Listening to the science and then doing something about it are two different things.
Politicians can still follow the science but just not as far as ‘scientists’ would like them to go, because of political considerations.
They can both coexist, but do not have to be congruent.
Ahhh, self regulation –
That would be from Mr Morton, of the Ricegrowers Associtaion of Australia.
(via the Guardian.)
Holden Hillbilly says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 12:05 pm
Sec 44 basic:
Are you or parents born overseas – if YES then you are NOT qualified unless you have renounced your rights!
It’s actually worse than that, grandparents also need to be looked at.
Excellent presser from Shorten and co. Refused to be drawn in by wowser questions, answering straight down the line and stressing “lawful” behaviour by a Shorten govt.
My take was that Shorten knows, if we are ever to have stable govts again, we REALLY need govts to adhere to law and proper process.
ItzaDream,
“What’s a pillar of Jesus?
I’ve heard of a pillar of salt”
“Exodus 13:21-22. By day the Lord went ahead of them in a pillar of cloud to guide them on their way and by night in a pillar of fire to give them light”
And the pillar of fire has been the cause of global warming ever since, in spite of what the lefties say.
Here endeth the lesson.
EGW
You are correct in your response.
It is the pooled nature of the funds, with Fund Manager’s not just Industry Funds, which provide the Credits utilized by those invested in those pooled funds (regardless of accumulation or pension phase).
The further advantage with Fund Manager’s is the investment risk available from Cash to Alternatives, including globally.
So diversification.
Sometimes the marketing sales pitch of interested persons that it is “cheaper to self manage” carries accelerated risk (particularly if the receipt of Franking Credits where no tax has been paid in the first instance is a “selling point”)
Which brings us back to pooled funds.
The real shame (and risk) of this is the lack of understanding of the superannuation industry, a lack of understanding which leads to the “scare tactics” we see employed currently.
We have seen a growth of self managed plus an ability to borrow – and I do not know where the old diversification rules have gone to because there were diversification rules in place once upon a time.
Now we have the $1.6 Million “Cap”, so what is the resolution if your self-managed superannuation fund is invested solely into a real estate property and the Valuation moves above $1.6 Million?
For all the changes to legislation from 1984 or whenever, all we have as a result is more and more complexity and less and less understanding feeding Accountants and Fund Managers (and the likes of Wilson Asset Management) who actually contribute a cost base (into their pockets, of course!) not a return.
So people perched in your hip pocket having a feed courtesy of you.
The problem with Labor obeying the rule of law, whenever you have a system where one party follows the rule of law and reestablishes norms, and the other party doesn’t, the lawful party is going to lose an awful lot. We might as well just give up democracy as a cycle where the norms and law apply to periods of Govt when Labor is in power, and just do not apply to the LNP.
If that is the way we are going to be we are already f*cked.
“My take was that Shorten knows, if we are ever to have stable govts again, we REALLY need govts to adhere to law and proper process.”
I don’t think any of the changes of leaders or governments has had any law issues involved. The stench of corruption and immorality associated with the LNP federally is another matter.
Goll @ #220 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 11:49 am
He’s appropriating the Donald Trump slur of Hillary Clinton wrt her email leaks, the ‘400lb guy in a basement’ could have done it. But it was the Russian GRU all along.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/who-opposes-agls-gas-terminal-more-julia-banks-and-greg-hunt-fight-in-flinders
Big big issue in Flinders that could decide the seat.
My money is on Banks.
Guiliani says that there is nothing wrong in Trump camp taking Russia help.
https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/nothing-wrong-with-trump-camp-taking-russian-help-says-rudy-giuliani-20190422-p51g1d.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fworld%2Fnorth-america%2Fnothing-wrong-with-trump-camp-taking-russian-help-says-rudy-giuliani-20190422-p51g1d.html
Rex@12:48pm
How much did you bet on Banks? 🙂
poroti @ #228 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 11:57 am
Give me the Darkness any day. 🙂
https://youtu.be/umAurdHLNzU
Morrison was actually responding to tweeters comparing his raised arm at the Church service as being comparable to a Nazi salute.
Observer @ #267 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 12:40 pm
Thanks for that confirmation. Not my area of expertise, but I was pretty sure I understood it.
FWIW, I think Franking Credits are a bad idea and should be done away with entirely.
jenauthor@12:37pm
One does not go to a gun fight with a knife. But ALP seems to do that quite a few times. But LNP always goes to a knife fight with a gun.
C@t @ 10.32am
“….. sad to see a politics blog overtaken by a gambling virus …… “
Really? What blog was that? Hyperbowl much ?
bakunin @ #214 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 11:40 am
Thanks for that – very informative and not what i had thought about petards.
Still very painful though, I imagine!
psyclaw@12:58pm
What is the title of this thread? What did William Bowe discuss in this thread?
Lanai Scarr in The West today
“The momentum is definitely swinging Morrison’s way after 12 days on the hustings and some major gaffes by Shorten…..”
“The Coalition is hoping that Shorten will continue his blunders and lack of detail on the campaign trail and it is understood campaign headquarters is saving its “best dirt” on the Opposition Leader until the last week of the campaign…..a strategy copied from last month’s NSW election…….”
It appears the Liberals, in their efforts to identify a quick fix to their complex and difficult campaigning shortcomings, have shit canned i360 and will retain their decades old system. That bodes poorly for the future of their campaigning efforts, and in particular their potential field campaigning efforts.
I’m already on the record as predicting a frightful flogging at this election, and am now predicting a repeat dose at the 2022 election.
Interesting, but no surprise, that Morrison is hitching his wagon to the ol ‘ “ labor did it too “ horse on buy backs.
Leaves it open now for Shorten to push for a RC on all buybacks since the plan has been in place.
We have nothing to hide but why is Morrison opposing it ? Simple question from labor that has no answer ?
Rex Douglas @ #271 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 12:48 pm
NIMBY stuff.
@Grimace
I am predicting a Labor win but not a overwhelming one at this election. With a Coalition opposition increasingly become more radical right, I would not be surprised if it becomes a lot like One Nation by the 2022 election.
Also I predict that Fraser Annings Conservative National Party will take One Nation’s place and play a role similar to the Neo Nazi Golden Dawn Party in Greece.
Grimace @ #266 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:02 pm
Libs are broke and couldn’t afford the tariff.
Kate says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 1:02 pm
Lanai Scarr in The West today
“The momentum is definitely swinging Morrison’s way after 12 days on the hustings and some major gaffes by Shorten…..”
************
The delusion runs strong in Ms Scarr.
She needs to come door knocking with us in Pearce if she’s interested in momentum, based on that article she’ll be in for quite a surprise.
The L/NP have spent the best part of six years emptying the contents of every septic tank they could find on Shorten. Anything they had which they thought would have finished him would have been rolled out ad nauseam years ago.
Kate @ #280 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:02 pm
We Victorians had the same stuff said in the Heraldsun before the election.
Barney making sure that he gets interviewed before any documents come out.
Grimace @ #271 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:07 pm
It’s pretty simple when you look at where the Leaders are:
Morrison returns to Melbourne to try and save a swag of seats across the State.
Shorten is on an Easter Egg hunt to collect as many LNP marginals as he can in Queensland.
Hey Ven,
A mate of mine, who shall remain nameless, told me of an FBI training film that he saw once.
The gist of it was showing previous trainees conducting a set simulated task. They (with pistols) were told to enter a reasonable size room where a ‘suspect’ was on the other side of the room. The ‘suspect’, they were told was armed with a knife (for the sake of the simulation – ‘a rubber knife’). They were to confront and apprehend the ‘suspect’.
Every one of the trainees upon entering the room, was confronted by a screaming, kung fu type, who ran quickly across the room and delivered a ‘fatal’ wound before the trainee could even draw a bead on him.
One after the other.
No wonder the police get jumpy when they confront someone so armed.
I often think about that when that old knife fight/gun fight saying is repeated.
Ven
“taken over”?
The owner of the blog mentions a form of polling on Easter Monday morning (ie one group of people predicting the election result to the extent of putting their money where their mouth is) and this means that the “virus” of gambling is taking over the blog?
Huge hyperbowl!
WWP
You go down that road about the rule of law you end up with Trump.
Instead you do what Labor is doing.
You install accountability. Queensland is a good example.
It went from corruption rife to occasionally being corrupt
Greensborough Growler @ #290 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:11 pm
I view every appearance by Morrison as being effectively campaigning for Labor.
If they think he wins votes they are deluded.
Senator Doug Cameron
Verified account
I’ve got a conspiracy theory – the Liberals and big business are working together to keep Australian workers’ wages down.
Coalition candidate Gerard Rennick floats 12 per cent company tax rate, suggests early education a conspiracy.
BTW
Coalition have moved out to $4.00 on Ladbrokes.
Shorten skillfully combining Easter Egg hunting for Liberal marginals, saving the Great Barrier Reef and promising better Government processes when allocating government funds.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6082245/labor-pledges-to-terminate-half-a-billion-dollar-great-barrier-reef-foundation-grant/?cs=14230
Journos try to set up a “bandwagon” effect to convince the laziest of punters that if, by some fluke, they think Bill Shorten’s campaign is going well, they’d better think again.
The implication is that if a campaign is NOT going well, then there are good reasons for it.
● Campaigns bring out the best and worst in the candidates,
● Bill has been caught-out being shifty,
● ScoMo has been decisive and truthful, just like a real PM should be,
● Bill is a poor campaigner, thus proving his inability to act cleverly on behalf of the Australian people, were he ever to be elected.
Life and politics are just a Reality TV show, as I have often argued here. The people who produce news coverage moonlight as political coverage producers and directors. They use the same techniques that are used to turn nobodies into somebodies (e.g. Married At First Sight). This is also shown by the election of actual Reality TV participants (Trump) and Reality TV actors (Volodymyr Zelenskiy, literally today in Ukraine).
The statement was made in today’s The West that the best “dirt” on Shorten was being saved up. This is not self-defeating arrogance that will backfire against cocky Liberal campaigners.
It’s actually smart. It serves as a promo for next week’s episode, click bait for an audience that has been systematically conditioned into believing that not only is life just a Reality TV show, but that this is a good thing.
There are many out in Voterland who would be incapable of digesting anything on television unless it was in Reality TV format. They need bad boyz and bad girlz, gossip, betrayals, gaffes, exaggerated drama, syrupy sentimentality, heroes and villains. This is to compensate for their own miserable lives, of course.
@Rex Douglas
The StopAdani movement is the anti-Franklin dam movement of our time.