Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Morrison shows the crowds at the Royal Easter Show how he prays at the Shire church:
(ABC photo)
I would say that God would think that Morrison is a tosser.
rhwombat @ #322 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 1:56 pm
Maybe there should be a Doctor Formguide.
lizzie @ #4052 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:17 pm
Bingo. Not going to happen until the RC/NIC though. Joyce’s stinking corpse is becoming an intolerably heavy burden for even the Murdorcs. The next Newspoll will be dire.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:23 pm
Barratt
For those who believe in the literal truth of the bible it must have been a bloody big ark. In the absence of evolution, every sub-species would have had to be represented separately. Setting up the ant collection would have been interesting.’
DNA analysis can be used to demonstrate genetic bottlenecks.
The latter describes when populations of a species reach extremely low numbers. Two would be as low as a population might get – the Laysan Teal aside.
Cheetahs are an example.
https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/160201_cheetahs
According to Ark theory every single species which uses sexual reproduction and which boarded the Ark should demonstrate extremely low genetic variability.
But they don’t.
GG
“Do you ever get asked about the odds of a successful procedure?”
It’s not all that common and as ID says, every case is different.
I often explain that I view medicine as risk vs benefit and will tell people percentages and let them make their minds up if it’s at all controversial. For eg, I will sometimes say there is a 90% chance of completely removing most skin cancers at first go and give them rates of recurrence if it’s incompletely removed.
I also give people survival rates if they have melanoma but only if their survival rate is very good (90%+).
Greensborough Growler @ #4065 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:28 pm
Depends on the type of race.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:22 pm
Nah, more a reflection on how the Greens are inspiring the Nation.
On the contrary, we read today:
GG
“Maybe there should be a Doctor Formguide.”
They have them for hospitals and hospital departments but not for individual doctors. Often the best doctors would have the worst figures because they get referred the most complicated cases.
Surgeon’s form guide:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjV9QmY2v0c
Betfair current market,
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:27 pm
Wasn’t that what the hands up song that they used in that video about?
Amputations R us:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ1slXxrAYo
citizen @ #361 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:35 pm
Not according to Fitzgibbons policy.
I think Joels just playing with words in typical Shorten style re thermal coal mining and export.
Nothing wrong with protesting the Aldini mine, agree with it ………. no need to get all spiteful while doing so.
Unlike many here i have faith in one of the major parties to do the right thing.
I grew up in Tasmania at the time of the proposed Franklin and participated in protests against it. I also witnessed how the debate divided not only communities but families.
There are processes / structures in place that need to be followed……we do not need the High Court .
citizen @ #346 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:24 pm
And he expects people to believe that because!?!
Diogenes @ #356 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:32 pm
What is the basis of your probabilities and can patients actually check their veracity? I’m not being quirky here. But, the unquestioning wisdom of Doctors as the font of all knowledge in these matters is very Wizard of Ozish!
Burgey says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:09 pm
I mock his faith. Sorry, but I do. It’s laughable to see a grown man who’s meant to be somewhat intelligent and in a leadership position basically being heavily into what is a borderline cult.
———————-
Nothing borderline about it.
Oh, that’s right, ‘Because I said so!’ 😆
Boerwar @ #4049 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:16 pm
Where OBE = other bullshit excuse?
Hasn’t worked so well now that (a) only 20% of the voting population swallow Rupert’s crap & (b) the other 80% would love to see the Ruperts defenestrated on 18 May.
There’s no more kill Bill shit to shovel and they don’t have anything else.
They’re toast.
Barney in Da Lat @ #360 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:33 pm
Nah just your partisan leanings getting the better of you again.
Are you really going to ignore the kids’ future just because Bill’s so hopelessy wedged on thermal coal mining and export ..?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:41 pm
Projection muchly!
My comment was just an observation about the photo you posted with the tweet.
Barney in Da Lat @ #375 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:46 pm
Your comment was a shot against the Greens rather than the issue at hand.
Bill leads you around by the nose….
Antonbruckner11: “Burke has sent a beautiful torpedo at the head of the Ag Department (see Guardian blog). He’s also notified him (impliedly) that he’s cactus if Labor gets into office.”
Labor if elected shou;d not be engaging in a “night of the long knives” and indeed Mr Shorten has today ruled this out (“colourful analogy, but no”)
Historically the (only) two “nights of the long knives” were those of Mr. Howard+Max the Axe in 1996 and of Mr. Abbott in 2013. Mr. Howard (+Axe) did long term and possibly permanent damage to commonwealth public service capability (and in particular corporate memory) and in addition raised costs (since many of the sacked had to be hired back as consultants. Mr. Abbott’s effort rapidly degenerated into a fiasco due to the “fired but still here” situatation with Dr. Parkinson (a rough analogy to the out but still in situation with Brexit, perhaps) and also the bizarre necromancy in resurrecting Mr. Fraser a disciple of John Stone as Treasury Secretary. None of this should be repeated.
One of the merits posssesed by Mr. Shorten is the ability to work productively with people of virtually any philosophical persuasion, including very right wing people such as (for example) Mr Tony Shepherd. It is worth noting that whilst Mr. Abbott engaged Mr. Shepherd the engagement did not prove productive (and is no doubt an emabarrasment to Mr Shepherd). This is in contrast to the Shorten+Shepherd enagement. In this light, Mr. Shorten will work productively with public servants of all persuasions, with the main criterion being commitment to improve the functioning of government, rather than some sort of idealogical test (and certainly not the level of idealoigical purity demanded by some on PollBludger)
On the other hand, appointing plonkers such as Mr. Costello to positions of importance as some sort of political “triangulation” exercise was a mistake (in particular, it neglected to consider competence, cf. Dr. Nelson who has proved very competent in his role as head of the War Memorial) and should not be repeated.
Greensborough Growler @ #4082 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:40 pm
The population data is there for all to see since it is not operator dependent- but working out which population is the correct one is what we spend all that time and training doing. Your welcome to do it your self if you wish. Give yourself 15 years or so.
Also – we’re not selling anything or competing. There is no point in obfuscating, because we’re dealing with disease biology, not optional opinions.
😆 😆
Whatever!
GG
There are algorithms for melanoma survival based on thickness of melanoma, type, location, evidence spread etc etc.
Kerryn Phelps get it.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1120096374517682176
lizzie @ #380 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:53 pm
I’m afraid ScoMo is on a losing horse here…
Well Barnaby did advocate that ministerial decisions that did not follow department recommendations should be exempt from scrutiny of a federal integrity commission.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-mps-rebel-over-government-s-integrity-commission-plans-20181129-p50j51.html
rhw
OBE = overtaken by events. In this case, if there are no events, create events.
1. Keep moving, keep the colour coming. Deflect. Deny. Denigrate. Lie.
2. Drop some worse dirt on your enemies.
3. Announce some wonderful new policy.
4. Go to every single religious ceremony you can find. Wave your hand like you are at a Hitler rally in the hope that some dickhead takes the bait. (There is always a dickhead ready, willing and able to add a tache, throw an egg, etc, etc, etc.) Bait taken, start fulminating about faith and the triumph of good over evil.
One question that seems to have been forgotten is this:
1. When and why did you change your position from opposing buy backs to supporting buybacks and paying over the odds for buybacks?
Guytaur: “This mob is taking it to a whole new level. I suspect Bjelke Peterson Obeid heights. Will be the narrative”
There has certainly been an unhealthy increase in the level of Commonwealth governement corruption, but (fortunately) this is coming off a very low base. The “watergate” matter might be an example of corrupt behaviour (there are certainly others) but is as likely (or perhaps more likely) to be explained by gross incompetence. Of course in the old days gross incompetence by a Department would result in resignation of the Minister… In any event the ALP is wise to keeps its powder somewhat dry: “there may be a simple.explanation…”
poroti @ #339 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:16 pm
No no no no! He was bidding for water…
Barney in Da Lat @ #375 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 2:52 pm
I have long since learned that feeding Rex Douglas an answer to his absolute crap simply gives him an opening to shovel more absolute crap at us. 😐
Joyce is a cancer on the MDB.
Tom @ #384 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:02 pm
I saw a great one on Twitter:
‘Hands up who said they wouldn’t be campaigning over Easter?’
😆
That “raise your hand for Jesus” biz. Remember ScoMo did that in QT?
I have a mild apprehension that if he continues as PM, after the ‘success’ of his self-promo this weekend, Morrison will make it a feature at the end of every QT. He’s already slipped into hillsong speak in his pressers today.
Boerwar says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 3:00 pm
I’ve seen that point referred to by both West and McDonald.
Actually, on a serious note, I wonder how many of Scott Morrison’s fellow Evos appreciated being outed as such in that photo?
Morrison did that hands up shit in the parliament which didnt last long.
C@tmomma @ #389 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:02 pm
Don’t be led by the nose …
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b9d996f804d4f95aae6e19480e482c48
lizzie @ #387 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 3:03 pm
lizzie,
The Australian public are simply too polite to criticise a PM for that stuff and nonsense.
god’s will, from ‘The Lord Your god’s word’: Slaughter all of the occupants of the cities that god says you are entitled to:
Deuteronomy 20:16–17
But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded.
There are lots of Canaanites still around, so true believers like Scummo and GG should ‘devote them to complete destruction’, as god commands, in his ‘Word’.
Just kidding. He didn’t really mean it, I suppose. It really is difficult for me to work out which bits of ‘god’s word’ are fair dinkum, and which bits are out and out bullshit, given that nobody has a clue as to who wrote it, or even, when. Tom and GG can probably help us out, since surely they must have worked out how to separate the bovine excreta from the life affirming jewels. Otherwise how to they work out which bits are guidance, and which bits are just instructions to proceed with terrorism, like the above, which should apparently be ignored.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/canaanite-bible-ancient-dna-lebanon-genetics-archaeology/
I don’t think it is gross incompetence that is leading to these dodgy bros decisions. It’s a sense of entitlement. I thought the Howard govt-era Nationals were pork barrellers extraordinaire, but Barnaby, Canavan and co put them to shame.
Heres one for Scomo and his rich mates:
“It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” – Mark 10:25
A sleeper that has been 100% ignored by all the experts, investigators, and journalists, is the role of the Minister’s advisers.
There are an ever-increasing number of advisers.
The notion that ministerial advisers knew nothing about the buy back, had no discussions with the Department about the buy back, and relayed nothing at all from the Minister to the Department and vice versa is 100% unbelievable.
The three advisers who would most likely have had a direct involvement:
1. Chief of staff. The largest buyback ever would certainly have come across his desk.
2. The adviser(s) who had policy responsibility for the MDB and/water buybacks.
3. The head of media in Joyce’s Office who may or who may not have been involved in some pillow talk on top of the normal role. (I don’t know whether there was any overlap in the timing of the purchase and Joyce’s relationship with a media advisor).
To demonstrate that Joyce’s decision was arm’s length these three, and the Department officials they would normally have liaised with, would all have to assert that NO discussions took place.
“These have been on market since 2014. My younger son has one. Paid $28k for one, in Sydney, with 42k on clock.
The 1.9l/100k has proved to be misleading. He is getting about 3.5”
Good to know Yabba. How does your son find the vehicle?
I wonder whether I’ll Get something approaching 2.0l/100km given the daily usage will be mainly grinding around the inner west and into town (13km away)? Maybe I’ll have to settle for 3.5l/100km when I’m running trials out at Campbelltown, Parramatta or Penrith but for my wife and my typical use I doubt we’ll have to use the ICE engine (either as a generator or as a hybrid) much at all.