Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Burke has sent a beautiful torpedo at the head of the Ag Department (see Guardian blog). He’s also notified him (impliedly) that he’s cactus if Labor gets into office.
The betting markets indicate how successful the Australian has been in convincing us that we are putting away our cricket bats. I’d say no very.
Pressure is mounting (Tony Burke):
Dear Secretary,
On Friday 19 April 2019, the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources took the unusual step of issuing a media release concerning water purchases.
The political debate and allegations which had been discussed in the public realm had focused on the role of the then Minister not the Department which made it particularly unusual for the Department to intervene in this way.
The Department’s media statement referred to several actions taken which led to the eventual decision.
The actions include that the Department:
• undertook due diligence activities in investigating the proposal
• checked the validity of the licences on offer
• obtained commercial water valuation advice
• sought independent advice on the possible socio-economic impacts
• sought advice from the State Government
• sought advice from the MDBA
• sought advice from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder
• confirmed the sale was consistent with Commonwealth Procurement Rules
• paid at a fair market rate, as informed by independent market valuation.
The Prime Minster said that documents relating to these issues had been sought and had been made publicly available. Given that the only form of those documents that has been made publicly available were documents provided to the Senate and heavily redacted, and given that the Department has chosen to insert itself in to the public debate in this way, it is not consistent the operation of the public service to
provide reference to these documents to make a case in order to defend the Minister without then also making those documents public.
With that in mind I seek the cooperation of the Department in publishing the following documents or advice relating to the Department:
• undertaking due diligence activities in investigating the proposal
• checking the validity of the licences on offer
• obtaining commercial water valuation advice
• seeking independent advice on the possible socio-economic impacts
• seeking advice from the State Government
• seeking advice from the MDBA
• seeking advice from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder
• confirming the sale was consistent with Commonwealth Procurement Rules
• paying at a fair market rate, as informed by independent market valuation.
It would be inappropriate for the documents to be redacted given the circumstance in which the department has now placed itself.
I would be grateful if you could respond in by close of business tomorrow.
Yours Sincerely,
Tony Burke
guytaur says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 10:20 am
Personally I don’t think it matters what Governments do.
The car companies are developing EVs.
The price will continue to fall.
When the price falls to the level or below of current vehicles most people will buy them.
This probably will happen in the time frame Labor is talking about, so in this case the market will take care of things. 🙂
Did Angus Taylor own the original cotton farm, or did he just set up a Caymans company to buy it?
As I understand it, it was trading at a loss before Taylor bought it due to the fact that dry land cotton farms require so much water to make them viable and they couldn’t afford to purchase the water they needed from the river allocations to Irrigators.
Then Angus turned up in government after the 2 properties had been purchased and Barnaby was pleased to help an old mate out.
nath @ #52 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:46 am
Oh FFS this is just bullshit!
It is letters sent out by the local candidate accompanying a Postal Vote Application. Sounds like exactly the same as I received from my local candidate and it has her photo on it and is an appeal for my vote. Bill Shorten is not a candidate in my electorate.
Oh, my candidates corflutes also only have her smiling face on them (2 in my front garden). Same story.
Other more general Labor election material has her and Bill Shorten on it.
Come election day we will have bunting with Shorten and our local Candidate on it and we will also probably have other bunting showing villains such as Morrison, Dutton and Abbott.
How is this part of government business? Yet he got away with it.
Pillar of Jesus? More like a pillar of hypocrisy.
sorry for doubled post.
I’m not sure if this link will work but hopefully
https://twitter.com/i/status/1119890508606660608
It is Eddie Betts kicking a goal yesterday in his 300th AFL game. Betts is a right footer. Kick is with his left foot, on the run after a turn to avoid going over the boundary line and about 30m from goal so needed a good kick. Probably goal of the year. Betts already has 2 of these. Right up there with the best.
I am an increasingly grumpy old Phart when it comes to politics and elections.
Promises, unfulfilled. Handouts as bribes. And above all, no vision or simple honesty.
Was going to vote for Bill. Not now. I made decisions on my superannuation years ago not expecting constant change. In business it’s called sovereign risk.
Now I learn that Chris Bowen will allow retirees whose superannuation funds are in pension mode and not paying tax to receive their cash franking credits “ gift” if they invest their super money in some industry funds.
This would be a world first where taxes were levied on the basis of who manages your money, and not on assets or income.
No thanks. I’ll write Keating name on my ballot.
“Labor will be making purely electric vehicles viable. ”
Hi Guytaur.
Sorry the X1 will need to be retired this year, so it’s either a cost effective PHEV or another ICE for a few years. The first generation Outlander PHEV ticks pretty much all the boxes for what we need and how we will use the car in our ‘real world’ until a cost competitive pure EV comes onto the Australian market in 3-7 years time.
I’ve actually hired the petrol ICE equivalent of the outlander for 10 days for a Queensland holiday 3 years ago and was impressed with the vehicle generally. Another factor in the decision.
Betting markets are just another comparison point for looking at what is happening in the polling world. We talk about individual seat polls incessantly. We all know they are useless.
To a large extent, betting markets are just a glorified vox pop given there is no sample size, probably skews to the attitudes of people who indulge in betting and betting markets are notoriously inaccurate. (Only about 30% of top rated horses win). The depth of the market (how much is in the pool) and whether the Betting Companies are using Elections primarily as a promotional tool should also be considered when using them as an indicator of the final outcome.
However, they do indicate a cohort of people actually prepared to outlay/invest in their own judgements of the situation. So, that lends some credibility.
There are plenty that don’t bet and that’s their choice. I find the wowsers raging against a perfectly normal activity in life rather tiresome.
Bingo! I think I’ve sussed another wrinkle that needs to be ironed out of #Watergate 2.0
As per Tony Bourke:
On Friday 19 April 2019, the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources took the unusual step of issuing a media release concerning water purchases.
Now, remember that Barnaby Joyce moved the APVMEA to his electorate. Also, that that is where Joyce is now holed up. So, my first question is, is Barnaby Joyce still in contact with the Ag Department staff who were moved to his electorate? Thus, is he using them as a conduit to the Secretary of the Ag Department and the Department itself at this time and what role is current Ag Minister, David Littleproud playing in this rearguard action by Joyce and Taylor? Not that he should be at all.
Cat
Like it or not betting markets are an indication of “the vibe”.
You can use them to pick a favourite in a race. Just remember like in a horse race you can easily lose your money.
With no polling over holiday periods it’s reasonable to use them to comment about how an election is feeling to people.
I think we notice it more now due to the saturation gambling advertising everywhere else. The worst offender being for gambling apps on your phone.
That makes going out to the local pub or club to get to the pokies hard work by comparison
What’s a pillar of Jesus?
I’ve heard of a pillar of salt.
Mornin’ all
Seems consensus is Shorten won the (non) campaign over Easter.
One has to laugh at the Coalition – “own goals a specialty” should be on everyone of their cornflutes about the country.
I think the #watergate thing has legs and won’t go away … and well timed in retaliation for the supposed bombshell over ALP costings that the Libs dropped early last week in the hope of killing off Labor’s momentum.
Smart, they are not.
Of Nicholas’ list of 5, the one about competitive markets should be pretty easy. It isn’t a big departure from where we are pack mentality wise. It is in fact one of Elizabeth Warren’s things, capitalism is great but you must have functioning well regulated markets.
As with AOC’s very popular ideas, most of the obvious reforms to markets almost certainly would be welcomed.
1. Get rid of pricing that is so complex that noone could possibly ever understand it (currently that is a feature not a bug, they want it that way and they have pretty complex, pretty accurate human behaviour models so they can are are using it to milk us).
2. Get rid of the unilateral change in terms and conditions, I still remember fresh out of law school, newly married, we did a couple of weeks of research to find the cheapest and best savings account, zero fees, most of the bells and whistles. Two months later they added a $5 per month fee for small accounts and we were a small account. That wasn’t the market or the law working it was just a rort. It has got a lot worse not better in the couple of decades since.
3. The ACCC has been a useless idiotic joke, across almost all industries and we need genuine reform, and the breakup of dominant players in broken markets. You don’t even need, IMHO, specific media reform, you just apply to media the same rules you apply to all markets and news corpse would need to split about 15 ways before the media market could get close to a real competitive market.
I think perhaps banks are too hard, but a specific deliberate no frills transparent, low or no fee public competitor I think would pretty quickly shrink the banking sector, if there isn’t a lot of spiv fees laying about the banks aren’t going to have a lot of employees chasing them.
There are measures like these that can be done, and if we had a strong leader and a sensible senate interested in reform rather than idiotic partisan politics they would be very popular. Not with businesses of course, and someone is going to have to fight the line that because of super we all need to carefully protect the perks of the ultrawealthy, it has been framed quite compellingly.
With tax it is clear to me it is an incredibly unfair system we have, but I’m not sure how to change it in a popular way. A couple of measures around an inheritance tax, estates over $10 MM (yes I know Labor doesn’t have nearly the brains trust nor the courage to go near here at the moment), and an additional top marginal rate, perhaps 60% over $500k. Also some rules to tighten up deductibility, so you have less ‘real income $3 mm, taxable income $0’ situations.
Labor is going the opposite way but ridiculous accelerated depreciation is a key driver to having a nice and handy loss pool to use, and it is in high cash flow, high profit years you’d look to acquire things that you are going to be using for decades but depreciating over two or three weeks.
Anyways, interesting list, much more doable than it first looks, particularly if you take an approach of taking the low hanging fruit, sharing it / using it wisely and then justifying taking the next layer of fruit.
Wont be easy in 99% of the cases the really wealthy didn’t make their money by being honest and fair, and there is zero chance they will make any serious concessions voluntarily. They will use / misuse their mostly illgotten wealth if they are given a chance.
I was waiting for the ‘wowser’ epithet to be thrown at me. Come in spinner.
AE
I did say If you can. 🙂
Barney.
I was referring to setting up a charging network.
Its like the NBN. There are just some things governments should do.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 10:47 am
Maybe it’s something like pole sitting. 🙂
Local Liberal party leaflet has one reference to ‘the Morrison government’ within the one thousand words of text.
Cat
I hope you are not referring to me 🙂
If my post says you are a wowser to you that’s reading it wrong.
Watch out! The Pillars of Jesus will be coming for your soul next!
Spence @ #159 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:44 am
The Coach was saying that they had a video of Betts’ great play, goals and marks throughout his career that runs for over nine minutes. It’s amazing to consider that goal last night is not in it atm!
Hey C@t,
I bet you any money that not one person on here calls you a wowser
C@tmomma @ #160 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:42 am
So a Dodgy Brothers Neoliberal charabanc (Cart with benches) has all the seats facing right?
lizzie @ #170 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:51 am
Birmingham is conflating ‘reduce money for the Reef’, with Labor’s decision to take back the $448 Million the Coalition paid to their mates in the Fossil Fuel industry hiding behind the sham GBR Foundation.
rhwombat @ #177 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 11:00 am
Indubitably. 🙂
C@tmomma
says:
This blog post by Mr Bowe exposes the seamier side of Neoliberalism and taking a business Private. He who pays the piper…
Not that I’m suggesting Mr Bowe is making anything up to satisfy Ladbrokes, I just believe that, in order to satisfy the terms of his contract that he needs to mention them and their business regularly.
____________________________________________
Wow. Talk about entitled. I have always jokingly maintained that C@tmomma believes that this is her blog and that William is just the nice man that maintains it for her. It’s gone beyond a joke now. In any case the betting markets, while not polls, are another way of measuring sentiment and particularly shifting sentiment and therefore worthy of some discussion on a site like this I would have thought. Commenters certainly mention the betting markets quite a bit, including myself. So pull your head in C@t, you have a big mouth and runs a hundred miles an hour.
See Nath didn’t call you a wowser
I can see spending the next hour on this blog will be a waste of time.
From what I have scanned, there has been absolutely nothing about #watergate in ‘The Australian’.
Morrison is pushing religion again.
He went to a Buddhist temple to talk about the Sri Lanka attacks.
It’s very sad in a way. He is no Jacinda Ardern turning up to a mourning ceremony in a scarf after a terror attack in his home country.
That’s the comparison voters will make. Even if they don’t put it into words.
Hi nath!
*waves*
Can’t wait for you to catch up on the posts by the helpful posters pointing out to you all the Liberal candidates that have no mention of Morrison or the Liberal Party on them. 🙂
But you were never going to be interested in that, were you?
I’m loving the false sense of possibility the LNP is getting from these bullshit individual seat polls.
The fact is you’re getting smashed at the election, and there’ll be a Shorten government with a solid majority evident by 730pm.
Why? Because Shorto is wildly popular? No.
Its because this LNP government has been f*cking dreadful. Self-obsessed, indulgent, scandal-ridden, and in insane denial that removing Turnbull was no problemo, provided we dont talk about it.
Hahaha. Its clinical madness! See you May 18 for your date with reality.
Fulvio Sammut @ #59 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 11:04 am
Situation normal?
frednk @ #144 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:37 am
Unless the betting markets reflect insider information, they merely reflect the views of people who are happy to let other people steal their money.
Marcos De Feilittt @ #176 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:59 am
How much? GG already has included me in that group here. 🙂
Which I’m not, btw. I was simply opining about the pervasiveness of gambling in Australian society.
Barney in Da Lat says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 10:51 am
ItzaDream says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 10:47 am
What’s a pillar of Jesus?
I’ve heard of a pillar of salt.
Maybe it’s something like pole sitting.
What is poll sitting? Do they look after the poll while waiting for the dancer?
Bowen getting wound up (rightly) about Liberal fabrications. Morrison’s lies.
The PM may have his hand up asking to be noodled by the spaghetti monster; but few in the background seem to be doing the same.
I wonder what the rules for a noodle request are?
It is OK, C@t
Just having a tiny amount of fun on an Easter Monday, waiting for the showers of rain to stop.
Hoping, like many lurkers here, that some decent political goss will eventually appear on the screen.
With watergate, if we assume (that is as a thought experiment not a claim or conclusion that I’m expressing, but a what if) that something very naughty did go on then it clearly couldn’t have gone on without some, some fairly senior people in the department being compromised. When you remember that Barnaby purged people he didn’t like, in this hypothetical of course the department threw convention to the wind and published a defense during the caretaker mode (which IMHO is probably a form of lawful corruption in and of itself, that the Minister Responsible at the time is in hiding lying about being unable to access communications devices and so the Department in Caretaker mode comes out and runs interference – disgraceful).
Now back from the thought experiment to real life where it looks dodgy and bad as all hell, but we have no proof of criminality at this point, in this context the very unusual political intervention of the Dept during the campaign should definitely be seen as a red flag demanding more investigation, not taken at face value for even a second.
I know with old government the Its Time factor is the tired mob stumbling due to a scandal.
This mob is taking it to a whole new level. I suspect Bjelke Peterson Obeid heights. Will be the narrative
Pole sitting involves petards – it can be quite painful depending on the make & model of petard you choose.
lefty e says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 11:07 am
…..
Hahaha. Its clinical madness! See you May 18 for your date with reality.
Mateeeee; keep it down; there are papers to sell, it would seem PM’s that need noodling (love to know what the rules are and why) and carrot goose steps to photograph.
An outright gift to the cartoonists. Don’t take it away.
From Gabrielle Chan in the Guardian:
‘Having spent a couple of days down in Liberal MP Sussan Ley’s electorate of Farrer on the Murray last week, I can tell you communities are on fire about water management in the middle of this drought. Basically they fall into two camps. Some key irrigators and community types are backing an independent challenge by Albury mayor Kevin Mack against Ley. Some are keen that the electorate should stay in Coalition hands in order to stop more water buybacks. Given Ley holds the seat on a margin of 20%, it would be an absolute rout for her if Mack won. But there was a lot of anger on the ground so I am not prepared to make a judgement over whether Ley is safe.’