Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Scott says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 9:31 am
Yes, but where were they when he took over from Abbott?
Barney in Da Lat says:
😆 Yes it is all relative. I had been in Darwin for a couple of months when one morning it dropped down to 14C . I arrived at work early and had many LOLs watching the locals arriving. They sounded like they had had to battle through meter deep snow drifts to get there such was the ‘extreme cold’ and all 😆
This is another reason why people in/supports Labor should not fall gullible to these so-called media backed popular leader
The majority of the media is supporting Anthony Albanese who is media friendly to be Labor’s leader
The majority of the media supported Kevin Rudd who was media friendly against Julia Gillard
Come election time these so-called popular leaders will not help Labor party chances any better than under a leader who is not media friendly
poroti @ #98 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:38 am
That is a sign of weakness (a fading signal) rather than strength
C@tmomma @ #100 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:43 am
Primarily yours and I’ve asked you to desist in the past to no avail. You seem determined to spread his Gospel under the guise of being perpetually outraged.
Barney in Da Lat says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 9:44 am
Yes, but where were they when he took over from Abbott?
————————————————————-
Yes, Turnbull may have stopped more seats from being lost but still the libs/nats combined primary vote declined , after the 2016 federal election the libs/nats combined primary vote was declining in the same speed as it was under Abbott , after the 2013 federal election , it shows being popular is not going to improve the political party primary chances if the public has the mindset of getting them out of office ,
For those wondering if Sally McManus is asking for that fake tweet to be removed:
.
Poroti,
I wandered past some clothes shops last night and the most common item were jackets. The locals look like they’ve just come in off the slopes.
None of this helps me as they’ve only got Children’s sizes! 🙂
This article uses a lot of words to point out the obvious question that has been asked here.
Are voters tuned in or out for the campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/cat-meet-pigeons-the-coming-angst-for-morrison-and-shorten-20190421-p51fwz.html
@Scott
The media treatment (especially by News Corporation outlets) of Shorten has been pretty bad.
There is a reason why Bill Shorten has been treated this way, as reported in The Age about what some in the business community are feeling about the prospect of a Shorten Labor government.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-big-business-won-t-say-publicly-about-a-labor-victory-20190418-p51fcr.html
Imagine how depressed Angus Taylor must be today…
He goes to all the trouble and considerable expense of setting up a Cayman Island shelf company so that it can buy a farm located in the middle of a desert that has no water to grow crops, especially particularly thirsty cotton.
The Caymans company lends the farm money that can never be repaid, so Angus sells the company for a pittance, washing his hands of the whole miserable deal.
He then sees one of his best mates, Barnarby Joyce, buy back the rights to that non-existent water at a price so far over the odds that it’s the subject of a national scandal, giving Angus’ dud firm in the Caribbean not only all its bad loans paid off, but $52 million profit as a bonus.
If only he’d stuck with the damned farm: he’d have that $52 million in his own pocket now, and wouldn’t have to put up with everyone calling him a dill for trusting Barnarby . Plus of course… he’d never have to work, ever again.
Angus must sure be kicking himself.
As an add-on to my rant and rage as of 3.58am this morning on the previous lead, l wanted to add that some f/wit will probably want to talk about Shorten’s inadequacies or the significance of the Greens in a mordern right wing led regime governing Australia for a few. The first add-on has been raised and wait for it…….
Nicholas
Abject nonsense
Name any Nation where income and wealth is “capped” – not even in Communist Nations where citizens own EPL Clubs and other assets
Simply, everyone achieves within their ability, capacity and discipline hence people residing in East Melbourne and others residing in Melton – or in shared accommodation wherever
It is the integrity of the social security net – so those who fall thru that net for whatever reason receive the required support
Perhaps you should join the same “Church” as Ad Man from Mad Men because you both subscribe to nonsense
And, speaking of “religion”, why were the Chamberlain’s such an easy target for media and particularly the then seriously struggling Murdoch Media?
Because of their “religion”
Nicholas, good post @9.23am. 🙂
Confessions @ #91 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:32 am
A question can’t get closer to an accusation than that!
Alice Workman actually doing some good work:
Alice Workman
@workmanalice
·
3h
Paul Henselin, One Nation’s candidate in the seat of Fairfax in Queensland, has been caught sharing fake news that claims the Notre Dame cathedral fire is linked to jihadi terrorism and that, if elected, Labor will introduce Islamic law. (link: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/one-nation-contender-spruiks-fake-news-on-jihadis-and-labor/news-story/6f133cd14f32ccc9852283b6ee0c25b4) theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic…
The whole thread is good value.
I refuse to reproduce the photoshopped image of Bill Shorten in an Arab headdress here.
Meanwhile, Barnyard is in hiding in his electorate, sending out tweets. All he’s doing is giving the story more legs. Front up, Barnyard, Front up.
tweets = texts
P.S. Guardian has a live blog today
Gorgeous day in Newie, KayJay. Grass is growin’ madly
I didn’t see this on ABC or Sky this am. Nice story tho
https://10daily.com.au/amp/views/a190421jzc/bill-shortens-wife-chloe-literally-caught-a-small-boy-falling-out-of-a-tree-20190421?__twitter_impression=true
Observer, Nicholas is talking about in an ideal Australia. One that will never exist, sadly.
Greensborough Growler @ #68 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:07 am
So you’re outraged that the media has recorded video of someone on a public street?
Or that they’ve chosen to work Easter Sunday?
antonbruckner11 @ #117 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:59 am
He’s in range of Hamish McDonald then. 🙂
BH,
How did the op on your wrist turn out?
antonbruckner11 @ #117 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 7:59 am
If he’s back ‘in range’ then he should answer the question emailed to him on Thursday (Friday?) which his electorate office said he couldn’t respond to because he wasn’t in range.
Barnaby could clear this matter up very easily by answering some simple questions.
This is an interesting prove comparison test conducted in late 2014 between the Outlander PHEV and the Outlander diesel. It was a 150km test: 100km around Sydney’s ring motorways and 50km of urban grind.
In summary – the PHEV came out ahead slightly on overall fuel efficiency and bowser cost but slightly behind when the $3.50 electricity cost to recharge was added onto the final figures.
However, for my purposes the PHEV is a clear winner for the following reasons:
1. My family really doesn’t do many motorway kilometres, and when we do Sydney’s traffic often makes it a grind anyway; and
2. Overall fuel cost is dependent on how much diesel costs (generally going up over time even more than petrol) compared with how much electricity costs – which in our case will likely be effectively zero because we’ll be topping up from a wall battery hooked up to our solar panels by the end of this year). I know that there are capital costs associated with installing Slater and batteries, but we are doing that anyway as part of our home renovation and mainly for other household electricity usage. Topping up a PHEV overnight is just a bonus.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/videos/mitsubishi-outlander-phev-v-diesel-review-which-saves-you-money/
William, I think you pay far too much attention to the betting markets. Perhaps if we had a bit more info about the depth of each market – eg, how much do the odds change when someone puts say $50 on the outsider? – then I could take them more seriously. But we don’t, do we?
Now’s as good a time as any to reflect on the integrity of Barnaby Joyce MP.
integrity
/ɪnˈtɛɡrɪti/
noun
1.
the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/agriculture-department-head-paul-grimes-questioned-barnaby-joyces-integrity-days-before-being-sacked-20161024-gs9b67.html
Sohar @ #20 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:02 am
I live in hope that Labor in office will muster the courage to roll back the gambling monster that has taken hold in Australia.
From the Grauniad comments:
‘(Sarcasm alert) An advertisement has been seen in the New England daily , seeking expressions of interest to purchase total rights to all future 1:100 year floods.
There is no tender process, or any rules at all actually, but anyone with enough cash, in old notes , should attend the back bar of the Weatherboard 9 hotel and ask for Alvin Purplehead.’
Please don’t heavy William over any inclusion of betting odds, or he might remove our ability to post pictures!!
C@t
Good post Nicholas
Observer
Abject nonsense
🙂 🙂
Barney in Da Lat says:
A Russian guy I was working with in Darwin went home for New Year, he had been in Dubai before that .After last minute clothes shopping before leaving he was most perplexed to discover no shop in town sold ‘warm clothes’ 😆 . His home town, Krasnoyarsk, averages a ‘high’ of about -15C in January so you can imagine the panic !
Itza:
Thanks for that, a good reminder.
Thanks Catmomma! 🙂
Goll
Despite protestations to the contrary I see it slightly differently to you.
The Labor Green Wars and the resurrection of the popular leader debate comes from the fact people are not buying the media narrative that it’s close.
Rather it’s that we believe the polling. The Greens comments about negotiations with Labor and the hours of comments are indicative that bludgers expect Labor to win.
The leader is popular here and by media is a desperate LNP ploy because they too think the voters are waiting with baseball bats.
Mordor just reeks of that desperation.
If you think it’s bad here look at Ukraine. They have elected a comedy actor out of desperation for change. A candidate that did not even bother turning up to debates.
So as that SMH article asks “campaigning could be pointless”
I disagree with that. However we can say campaigns are pointless when voters have made up their minds. Ukraine has proven it.
Looks like that the Sri Lankan authorities didn’t take enough action
Sri Lanka’s police chief made a nationwide alert 10 days before Sunday’s bomb attacks in the country that suicide bombers planned to hit “prominent churches”, according to the warning seen by AFP.
Police chief Pujuth Jayasundara sent an intelligence warning to top officers on April 11 setting out the threat.
“A foreign intelligence agency has reported that the NTJ (National Thowheeth Jama’ath) is planning to carry out suicide attacks targeting prominent churches as well as the Indian high commission in Colombo,” said the alert.
The NTJ is a radical Muslim group in Sri Lanka that came to notice last year when it was linked to the vandalization of Buddhist statues.
Thanks Guytaur
BH @ #119 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:00 am
A blue sky – a tall ship and a star to steer her by.
I think I saw the movie where the kid falls from the tree – Groundhog Day.
I note that C@tmomma has inquired about the op.
I am now standing by to repel a hoard of boarders in the form of a daughter, grandchildren and great grandchildren in unknown (perhaps unknowable – thanks Einstein) quantities.
♫The sun is up ♫the sky is blue
♪There’s not a cloud ♫ to spoil the view.
Au revoir. 😍
a r @ #121 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:01 am
I don’t think chasing a 76 year old private citizen man minding his own business for a shock jock headline is a particularly fulfilling thing to do with ones time. The disrespect to Mueller and his family on an important day in the Christian calendar is disappointing. But, when the Reporters ego and desperation for a story is the only consideration that seems to apply in this situation.
The thread accompanying the video is scathing of the reporter and network.
AE
Wait a bit longer if you can. Labor will be making purely electric vehicles viable. Remember you can charge your car battery like your phone. That means like buying petrol you don’t have to drain the tank to top up.
With the money saving until you are confident about range for long trips you could hire a hybrid or fossil fuel car for those long journeys.
In the absence of polls the betting market is all that stands between the public and screeds of stories from The Australian and the like.
I fail to see that standards have fallen – present writer excluded. 😎
A very chatty lot here today. Good to see.
Jack Aranda @ #125 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:02 am
Exactly. This blog post by Mr Bowe exposes the seamier side of Neoliberalism and taking a business Private. He who pays the piper…
Not that I’m suggesting Mr Bowe is making anything up to satisfy Ladbrokes, I just believe that, in order to satisfy the terms of his contract that he needs to mention them and their business regularly.
citizen @ #46 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 8:37 am
No, they don’t all vote for him and in fact some are even ALP members! I know at least 2.
I don’t know how they reconcile the bullshit of their ‘church’ with reality.
Barny of the Overflow?
@cat
Aagh!! and lack of patience doing me in. Surgeon says it will take 12 mths to get nerves settled . The other hand has to be done as well. Typing takes so long that I give up but I do appreciate Bludgers keeping me up to date. I look here first
OH is still not well so we can’t help out with prepoll or HTVs. Luckily Fitzgibbon won’t miss us.
Fingers crossed for your seat. We are avidly watching.
Did Angus Taylor own the original cotton farm, or did he just set up a Caymans company to buy it?
For a supposedly smart-as-a-whip Rhodes scholar, Taylor sure got dudded on this deal.
It seems everyone made money out of the situation as soon as Taylor left the scene.
● Bad loans got paid back.
● Rainwater that never fell as rain was purchased for an inflated price.
● And the dams that were supposed to collect it are still there.
So the process can presumably be repeated when all the hullaballoo has died down… and when it rains, of course.
ScoMo should be wondering why he ever kept Taylor on as a minister, he’s so klutzy.
Labor should call for a RC into water buybacks and seek bipartisan support from Morrison.
Morrison opposes. Labor pushes the Banking RC opposition from Morrison, his slowness to support disability and aged care commissions.
Then connect his failure to support the buyback RC with his campaign against climate change in general, the death of the Murray / Darling in particular and top it of with rinse and repeat of the Turnbull tweets.
Morrison will try again to hit labor with some dodgy costings on its policy. Huge numbers across the front of Newscorp papers as early as tomorrow.
It will be very iluminating to see how labor responds and if business groups which have complained about uncertainty over climate policy decide to engage. That will be interesting.
Labor would be well prepared. Let’s see how it unfolds.
I will leave it to the professionals.
KayJay @ #140 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:22 am
As I just commented, I’m not even trying to imply that standards have fallen here. Quite the opposite. I just think, as I said in my original comment, that it is a little sad to see a politics blog overtaken by the gambling virus that has spread throughout our society.
Now, you might argue that that’s life in Australia today, but, as someone who has seen various members of my immediate family consumed by an addiction to gambling I see no good reason to promote it more.
And we have been able to get by between polls well enough up until now.
Confessions @ #91 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:32 am
There is a single word with six syllables that Barnaby can’t handle, let alone a whole lot of words strung together. That word is accountability.