Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
Just back. Lord Howe Island is just as beautiful as ever, with squally storms and heavy downpours turning it luscious green again after a shocker summer, worst ever.
A major pest eradication programme – rats and mice – is about to start, with staff from Taronga Zoo on the island to advise and temporarily trap and protect the Wood Hens and Native Currawongs from secondary poisoning. The programme has been delayed a year to this winter after the APVMA was moved from Canberra to Armidale and the paper work was screwed up and they had to start over again. Thanks Joyce (I’m sick of the folksy Barnaby), and special thanks from Tanya Plibersek whose electorate the island is in:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bungle-at-barnaby-joyce-s-pet-agency-prolongs-rat-infestation-on-lord-howe-island-20180320-p4z57i.html
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RDN29QFqbI4/XL0StwFEHwI/AAAAAAAAGw4/I1DgKT3IEtUawRNxAfqG8yRCaZfyZUkcACLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_33a3.jpeg
(sunset at the boatshed)
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fDFSnlNwP_k/XL0UCyonErI/AAAAAAAAGxQ/Y0ryIGi6Mcw1tD17wBx5hdbGWQQY6SqTgCLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_33a2.jpeg
(stormy sunrise at blinky beach)
I was very much on the non-Pentecostal side of Protestantism, so I have a natural sectarian lean against all the self aggrandizing, grandstanding handwaving, tongue speaking, ‘special moments with god’, I can’t help but conclude if there is a God and she in anyway resembles the God of the New Testament she is going to be helping people, healing them, solving poverty, not helping rich idiots get their religious rocks off, but as I said I’m biased. But having declared and given some colour to that bias lets just say the crowd in the moshpit, opps I mean the individual members of the congregation get to choose how and when they are having one of these rocks of for god moments and how best to express it. Of course there are times where the directors and big shareholders, I mean the preachers and church leaders deliberately encourage the more overt public expressions of your private one on one moments with the holy spirit, but Morrison apparently only let the camera’s in for a short period of time so he needed to play up whatever staged shot his media team had planned in that short window of time.
If there are any Pentecostal brothers and sisters here, I already know that I’m going to hell and that failure to get your rocks off for god in the approved speaking of tongues window means you are a very bad actor, I mean person without sufficient faith, come at me, I’m tough.
Thanks WWP, I agree that regulatory agencies need to be well-resourced and powerful. I agree that we need a public option for banking. Outright nationalization of the banks might not be necessary if you have one really good Australian Government-owned retail bank that runs its operations on a public purpose mission rather than profit-maximization.
Do you think that company tax serves useful purposes? Some people favour abolishing company tax and taking a more heavily progressive approach to taxing personal wealth and income (for example, by introducing a larger number of income tax brackets, and by taxing wealth as well as income). The reasoning is that company profits ultimately end up as personal wealth and personal income. Could that actually work?
Itza:
Thanks for those photos. I’ve always wanted to visit Lord Howe Island.
Victoria @ #199 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:30 am
Since the answer is shaped like Joyce’s Owners, principally Gina and the raft of Born to Graft Squatocratic Ratbags *(who also owned the deeds to Trumble’s Testicles#) I suspect that we will not know until the Federal MDB Royal Commission set up by the ALP in June.
* Like little Angus Taylor. There is a reason they didn’t use ex-St George accountant who demanded to be made Water Minister under the Trumble’s Testicles deed.
# I strongly suspect the the reason for Trumble’s humbling was that Lucy got jack of sucking up to Gina’s orcs and said lets go and spend some time in New York.
Sukkar watch (Deakin)
One actual small poster affixed to Sukkar’s electoral office spotted in the dawn light this morning.
Don’t think it was a Liberal one – looked like something about Julian Assange (bad light early am)
I might be wrong but I seem to remember lots of Liberal paraphernalia on his windows in the 2016 election – probably flogging the dead horse of the East-West link. In the same way his predecessor Barresi used to flog “No tolls for Scoresby Freeway” at State and federal elections, but then the Liberals never did anything about that even when they were in office both in Victoria and Federally from 2013-2014.
Does anyone actually think that thd Joyce / Taylor / watergate / imbroglio is a one-off?
This mob running the government (running off with the money) is a corrupt regime.
If the MSM and ABC are hobbled then the forces of change need to navigate past these obstacles.
Mordern communication allows a effective medium.
Its time to wind up the rage!
ABC have played the PM twice already. They promised us Bill
WWP
😀
C@t: I was simply opining about the pervasiveness of gambling in Australian society.
Sadly, many Australians now see everything through the prism money: elections and sport are about gambling; home ownership is property speculation, and so it goes on. The country is being hollowed out by greed.
Barney in Da Lat @ #205 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:33 am
That was the standard attire in Alpine NZ in the 70’s: The well dressed Kiwi climber wore hot pink or electric blue long johns under stubbies and gaiters, topped by a Fairydown wool shirt. We looked like ostriches cautiously crossing glaciers. Good thing the Haast eagles were extinct.
Pole sitting was/is one of those ‘esoteric’ religious practices.
WeWantPaul says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 11:24 am
So are you saying putting you hand up to be noodled by the spaghetti monster is really “rocks of for god”?
“All details clear”, says Morrison.
“More than half redacted”, says Twitter.
Come on, journos, pin him down.
booleanbach,
A petard was an explosive device used for blowing holes in doors. The problem was that when they went off the petard blew backwards off the surface they were attached to. If the “operator” didn’t get out of the way in time the petard would collect them – in which case they were “hoist with their own petard”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoist_with_his_own_petard
BTW don’t search for “impaled on a fence” if you are in anyway squeamish – the images Google turns up are quite disturbing.
I can’t watch anymore. Morrison too clever for me…
Andrew_Earlwood @ #81 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 9:24 am
These have been on market since 2014. My younger son has one. Paid $28k for one, in Sydney, with 42k on clock.
The 1.9l/100k has proved to be misleading. He is getting about 3.5
BH
While it’s true the nerve can continue to improve for a year, most of the improvement takes six weeks or less, unless you are elderly with a long-standing severely compressed nerve.
So Morrison’s response “they did it too!” Re #watergate
Al Pal @ #160 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:44 am
As I understand things, and I could be wrong, that has always been the case, but does not just apply to Industry funds but to all but SMSF.
The reason is that if a fund is pooling contributions from many members, some will be in accumulation phase paying tax, and so the franking credits can be used to the benefit of the fund overall, including those in pension phase.
I rely on the collective wisdom of PB to correct any errors in this.
‘keyboard warriors in their mother’s basement’ says PM.
What does this statement say of our PM ? Basement?
AE
Whatever your final choice. I like the approach you are taking.
Its why the LNP are losing. They are that “out of touch”.
Their whole caring for the environment means you want to live in a cave with a candle fear campaign has met reality
Interesting that #watergate story still has legs. 🙂
Morrison not answering very well to it and not making things any more clear. And, Where’s Barnarby??
Big man in the govt, “best retail politician” and he’s actually become less visible in the campaign than Melissa Price??
Gunna have to break cover at some point and if the Coalition wants people to move on from #watergate, surely they would want daS Beetrooter out there taking his lumps soonest to get it over with??
Bill Shorten Presser now
I was tempted to write a long entity taxation piece in response to the Company Tax question, but long story short, coming with a lot of self interest, I would leave company tax as is, tax trusts as if they were individuals and leave the partnership flow thru intact but with an effective cap of 10 partners beyond which the partnership is deemed to be a company and taxed as one (make the rules so that they are pretty much forced into incorporate but have nice rollovers, I understand there are some big partnerships in Australia that might have incorporated but for massive CGT hits).
Did force me to think. My main drivers are that companies are separate legal entities with all the benefits that entitles them too, and while they can’t vote in our current structure they have enormous power and exercise it ruthlessly.
Then look at any off-shore listed entity, private entities are probably worse but I haven’t seen that in action. They are essentially legally obliged to look for all the ways they possibly can to take all the money back home to their shareholders, leaving as little as the possibly can behind in Australia. Not taxing them while they do this doesn’t seem all that smart. Like those who opposed the resource rent tax just insane to give all your resources away for the lowest possible price.
But then I remembered your other point about rebalancing employment law, the ‘problem’ with companies probably isn’t just a cross border funnel the money home problem, and I’m guessing it is possible in theory to have a system where these companies make other contributions and provide meaningful well paid secure jobs without company tax.
I do come at company tax from a very legalistic side, not an economic side, I’m very much of a view that the basic concept of franking credits (not just refunds of excess credits) is a very badly and broadly directed investment incentive that is neither needed nor justifiable.
Bill’s up!
Reef Rescue
Time for us to work hard for the reef.
You have been warned 😆
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‘Darkness’ coming if Scott Morrison not re-elected, Pentecostal leader claims
Pentecostal leaders have warned their congregation that “darkness” will spread across Australia and Christians will be persecuted if Scott Morrison does not win the next election.
Others have been told that Morrison’s rise to power was a “miracle of God”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/07/darkness-coming-if-scott-morrison-not-re-elected-pentecostal-leader-claims
http://www.tai.org.au/content/debugging-watergate-interpreting-official-responses
The Australian Institute’s response to the Department of Ag’s attempt to retreat behind smoke. Very enlightening. I did not realise that Eastern Ag has been advertising the property for sale with the dam that collects the water!
C@tmomma @ #168 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 10:48 am
GG probably thinks the ingestion of drugs is ‘perfectly normal activity in life’ too.
For those interested:
PatriciaKarvelas
Verified account
@PatsKarvelas
13m13 minutes ago
More
We have a radio interview with @Barnaby_Joyce at 6:05pm live tonight on @RadioNational on this water buybacks story. Thank you to my producer @Tim_Skelton who is a great producer #AUSVote2019 @barriecassidy
GG
Kudos to the Karvelas team. Not scared to go after the LNP.
Not sure if this Ted talk has been posted before but worth watching as it touches on democracy:
https://www.ted.com/talks/yuval_noah_harari_why_fascism_is_so_tempting_and_how_your_data_could_power_it
So her willingness to spread propaganda for Barnaby through insiders has earner Karvelas the right to give Barnaby a foot massage.
I’m hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it playing out any other way. You can take the journalist out of the fox / sky / news sewer but can you ever take the fox / sky / news influence out of the journalist.
“I do come at company tax from a very legalistic side, not an economic side, I’m very much of a view that the basic concept of franking credits (not just refunds of excess credits) is a very badly and broadly directed investment incentive that is neither needed nor justifiable.”
Agreed WWP. This whole “double taxation” thing that franking credits are based on doesn’t make much sense to me. A company and a shareholder are different entities, and i dont see the logic in taxing a shareholders income at the company tax rate.
I’m not opposed to some form of incentive for people to invest, particularly for small investors, but the current system seems very messy to me. However, lots of vested interests getting their lolly so politically difficult to change. In terms of change, just getting rid of the ATO Franking Credit Gifts is going to be hard enough and probably as far as anyone can go this electoral cycle.
Oops. Mr Shorten has referred to Plibersek as Deputy PM.
ALP as stupid as Coalition:
Labor’s No 3 Senate candidate in NSW has withdrawn her candidacy just days ahead of the close of nominations amid fears she risked falling foul of section 44 of the Constitution.
Britain-born GP Mary Ross was endorsed in the third spot on Labor’s NSW ticket in June 2018, describing her candidacy as “a dream come true”.
“I’m super excited. I never thought I would be in this position, especially now, when Labor is so strong and has such relevant policies,” the Wagga Wagga doctor told her local paper at the time.
Dr Ross had been actively campaigning for the seat until last week, when her ALP social media profiles were wiped.
WWP
Karvelas has been good. No foot rubs since she has been on Prime time.
Sec 44 basic:
Are you or parents born overseas – if YES then you are NOT qualified unless you have renounced your rights!
“So her willingness to spread propaganda for Barnaby through insiders has earner Karvelas the right to give Barnaby a foot massage.”
I do have a bit of time for Karvelas. And, there is a bit of a blood in the water aspect to anything to do with daS Beetrooter. Will be interesting to see how it goes and suspect Barnyard will do the frothing incoherence thing.
GG
Been meaning to ask you. Do you have in mind an approximate number of seats you expect Labor to win by at this stage?
Nicholas, as putting the crumpets on something struck me, without getting rid of company tax entirely we could legitimately deliberately restructure company tax to give Australian companies every possible advantage, deduction, credit and special treatment when compared to non-Australian companies. It is after all exactly what the US does, so it wouldn’t even be new.
Don’t spose Joyce would be having a few grogs before he fronts the 6pm Pats and Barns Show by any chance.
I only see Karvellas on twitter when someone else rts, so I may be being very unfair to her, but her twitter contributions just this weekend, were shall we say, unimpressive.
Also the correct response yesterday morning wasn’t to read out Barnabys crafted propaganda it was to say, “Ah Barnaby is in contact with me, we will try and get him to air as quickly as we can.” And either interview him, or not spread his propaganda.
I was interested to see that at least one article in the Herald Sun mentioned the water buy backs and Morrison has questions to answer.
Only looked at the headline but it was mentioned.
Barnaby is not going to be able to avoid this much longer.
unless you are elderly with a long-standing severely compressed nerve.
Dio – that’s me. I wrongly thought it was arthritis for too long.
I did feel it half way through. I did a bit of wolf like howling til another needle went in but …. so proud of myself … I didn’t say ‘oh sh.t’ which is my favourite response when something goes wrong.
Bill doing well at presser.
Why do my posts take 9 mins to be accepted?
The fact that Australia’s best retail politician (not a phrase you hear from the commentariate any more) is MIA during an election campaign, apart from a tweet to a favoured journo, tells you heaps about Watergate.
The fact that most of the MSM, with one notable exception, has given this lukewarm, grudging coverage at best, tells you all you need to know about the media in Australia.
if this were Labor. No 45634980 in a series
Nice and steamy in Cairns.