Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
What happened to the chappie who first triggered the S44 saga and thereafter threatened to sue S44 failures for repayment of ill-gotten pay and emoluments?
I will be daceing on the streets when our great LNP will win the May 18 election and retain for another three years
ab11
The Australian was quick as lightning on two Aussies killed in Sri Lanka.
It is full bottle on the Nazi slur to Morrison’s salute!!!!!
But it is still 100% dead silent about the $2700 a Meg water rort.
It is also still silent on record March temperature and record first quarter temperature and continuing smashing drought in the back blocks.
100% silent. The noble farmers who were click bait fodder for the MSM (remember the convoys of hay?) have now been silenced.
I wonder how Kenny’s crusade to investigate media bias is going?
‘Wayne says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 4:55 pm
I will be daceing on the streets..’
Wayne, please don’t play in the traffic. It is dangerous.
Boerwar @ #4209 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:48 pm
So do I – but has there been any jailing as a result of an RC? Obeid et al. were ICAC weren’t they?
I just cannot see how any of the arseholes will ever be convicted under Rum Corps rules of Australia ((Alan)Bondian spongiform encephalopathy being transmitted through Cayman Island accounts and now endemic in the GRASPers), and political shaming has had no effect since Joyce proved it was possible to retain your seat while being the scummiest piece of overt offal that Gina has ever bought.
Wayne @ #502 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:55 pm
@Wayne “Our great LNP” sounds a little North Korean but anyway I hope you don’t get to do your daceing whatever that is.
Sometimes I think that The Australian has just as many readers from the Left looking to see what sort of absolute crap they will serve up next. 😆
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/22/odds-sods-week-two/comment-page-10/#comment-3139766
UK Citizenship is relatively easy to get back if you have renounced it, so deliberate does not seem worth it. I suspect it may have been a third country`s citizenship that is the issue.
I’m thinking Mordor Media does not like Bill 🙂 The GG seems to be edging the dial towards 11. Bill’s headlines in the GG.
Shorten ‘throwing mud’
Shorten jumping the shark
Invisible Shorten gets the airbrush
rhw
One nice little clean up would be for Australian entities that have operations in listed tax cheating destinations to autmatically forfeit all their possessions, and their boards and management staff immediately jailed for conspiracy to defraud the public.
poroti
They are as unrelenting and as vicious as Rex.
Poroti
Expect the Mordor media to complain about Labor’s Machiavellian plot to increase the Green vote by refusing to review decisions made to approve the Adani mine.
After all it was only the other day Labor was highlighting the legal risk over the bullying claims regarding Price giving that last approval.
You know it makes sense.
I will be hosting a big street party when our great LNP win the May election and everyone from here is invited to the party
Wayne, can you, at a bare minimum, ration it out a little more sparingly please.
Rex Douglas @ #441 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:12 pm
I really fear you may believe some of your own bullshit.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/22/bernie-sanders-democrats-trump-2020
😆
Wayne says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 4:53 pm
As if that wasn’t obvious considering your writing skills! 😆
No other outlets have the 2 Aussies killed story. Looks like Morrison has rewarded Murdoch once again.
Reasonable people might want to know why all news outlets were not alerted simultaneously on this matter of national interest.
But reasonable people already know.
Morrison is bought and paid for.
The Murdoch/Rex rabbitholes of fuckwittery are same/same.
Wayne says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 4:55 pm
I rest my case! 😆
poroti @ #501 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:04 pm
It’s rather funny really. The silly bastards have totally dealt themselves out of the game. The other media publications which usually lazily pick up their stories will surely be reluctant to rely on the crazy gang now. They are presumably trying to persuade Rupe rather than voters. In those process they’ve turned the Australian into an open sewer. It’s great to watch.
We were all wrong about nominations. From Ben Raue:
Nominations for the federal election will close tomorrow, with those nominations being announced on Wednesday, when the ballot draws will be conducted.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #453 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:24 pm
A perfect illustration of all that is wrong with the NSW Right. Such a sense of entitlement.
I am not sure if the AEC will accept any new candidate nominations at this stage. I hope not.
BW
Maybe for print.
It’s been breaking electronically on all my news alerts and ABC NewsRadio complete quote
EGW @ #515 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:09 pm
I really do believe coal is deadly for the environment
I really do believe offshore torture is a bad thing to do
I really do believe newstart should be immediately increased
I really do believe spending $100B on submarines is a waste of money
I really do believe major party donors have stolen parliament away from the people
I really do believe past Govts have vandalised our indigenous culture
I really do believe past Govts have widened the inequality gap
EGW,
I am not sure if the AEC will accept any new candidate nominations at this stage. I hope not.
They have to. See my previous post. 🙂
ab11
I assume that the loss of $25 million a year is worth it because The Australian is a key method of setting the agenda… or, the key method of getting people to talk about your preferred topics.
Take #watergate: zero mention in The Australian.
Tonight on the TV the news will be all about the headline The Australian: Two Australians killed in Sri Lanka.
In the scheme of things a ruined Murray Darling Basin and ample evidence of Government corruption would be top of the agenda.
But Morrison, and The Australian, are conspiring to set the agenda around two Australians killed in Sri Lanka.
Boerwar @ #518 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:13 pm
ABC now has it. Guardian has it. I am fairly confident I saw it on the Age.
Maybe behind the Murdoch outlets though.
I assume that the Coalition is hoping sincerely and completely that some Labor fuckwit will take the opportunity to mock the Diggers or some such foolishness this week.
The response will be immediate and full bottle: Labor hates Diggers.
L
Thanks.
So, let me get this right.
1. Angus Taylor sets up the Eastern Agriculture “group” as a water buy-back play.
2. Barny of the overflow says he’s totally against water buybacks as they destroy communities;
3. Eastern Agriculture makes an UNSOLICITED offer to sell its water;
4. There is no formal tender or bids;
4. Minister agrees to pay way over the odds for dodgy water from coy which fellow minister Angus Taylor was once, at least, closely associated with;
5. The deal is struck with a Cayman Island’s entity.
6. FMD.
I don’t see the problem with the candidate withdrawals.
Nominations haven’t closed and it shows the majors are alert and taking the issue seriously.
Greensborough Growler @ #461 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:28 pm
Give us a break! No sane person takes that mob seriously. Have you ever read their whacko beliefs? They give “Christianity” a bad name,.
BiDL
Agree. But the issue is the timing. The argument would be that this sort of thing should be tidied up well before the election is called.
Goodness, gracious!
Ronni-BarnabyGaveTheApproval-Salt
@MsVeruca
47m47 minutes ago
Ronni-BarnabyGaveTheApproval-Salt Retweeted Roman Quaedvlieg
Not quite Roman but almost.
The company didn’t buy that water. It came with the property title. They paid nothing for it and sold it for $80 million. And the company sold the farms with the water and dams still intact.
Money for nothing.
Boerwar @ #476 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 4:39 pm
Not so.
They close tomorrow @ 12:00pm
“Close of nominations for both House of Representatives and Senate candidates occurs at exactly midday on the date set out in the writ for close of nominations. Late nominations or changes cannot be accepted.”
Here’s some lines for Labor on the cost of their climate policy:
The cost of decent insurance is always less than the cost of doing nothing.
Let’s properly insure this nation we all love.
There’s a bushfire called climate change and all the LNP can talk about is what insurance costs.
Inaction will always cost more. Scott Morrison irresponsible policy of inaction will costs Australians far more.
Prudent conservatives take out insurance. It’s dangerous radicals like Morrison who advocate risk-taking.
Writes itself this insurance metaphor
antonbruckner11 says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 5:26 pm
Didn’t the Department letter on Friday say that the company had dismantled the infrastructure which enabled them to trap and hold the water?
I’m waiting to see how Morrison will use the tragedy in Sri Lanka to fire up his refugee and border protection crusade again, after it was temporarily disabled by the tragedy in New Zealand.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-22/sri-lanka-bombings-two-australians-killed-scott-morrison-says/11036026
Of course Morrison , Dutton and the others won’t politicise this will they?
ab
I don’t know the ins and outs of this case. For example, I am unsure about how flood plain harvesting is sorted in terms of ownership of water.
But all water rights used to be tied to property parcels.
If you purchased a property one of the things you took into account was the irrigation potential because of the attached water rights.
So, if they paid for the property, they paid for any attached water rights.
How water rights were attached to land parcels over the previous century or so by various state governments is as sorry and sordid tale as other Australian sagas involving land theft, resources theft, rank speculation and winks and nods to corrupt insiders.
Scrotty the happy clapper is taking a hammering in the comments section over at the SMH
Pepped me up no end…
BK @ #541 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:35 pm
Why not? You have.
The problem with candidate withdrawals if it is due to factional wars is that we get a repeat split of Labor and another government of disunity.
So be careful selecting replacements to avoid that.
Common Sense I think Labor will be awake to.
Some rellies got on Canberra’s Light Rail today. It rained. The tram stopped. They were marooned.
Barney in Da Lat @ #540 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:33 pm
I think so. But how do you dismantle a $16 million dam? It’s not like the govt could go onto the land and take control of it. The new owners would have a thing or two to say about that. I’d love to know how much EA got for selling the land. They were getting cash from all directions.
Now she’s in the big league (!), Alice is trying to make a big story out of Sally McManus joking, as if Sally was roolly serious. No doubt some will believe her. After all, Unions boo!
if you’re not yogurt knitting, you’re not doing it properly.