New year miscellany (open thread)

Two minor bits of federal polling news, a change in party representation in the House of Representatives, and looming electoral events in the Northern Territory and Victoria.

‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:

• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.

• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.

• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.

• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.

• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.

• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,057 comments on “New year miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Granny Anny says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 12:49 pm

    I can understand General Practioners being bitter and twisted about the scheduled fee.

    I just found an old medicare claim from 1994 where the ordinary visit fee was $24.15. Today it is $39.75.

    The RBA’s inflation calculator only goes to 2021 but if you ignore that, it is an increase for Dr’s 0f 60.75% while inflation has been 92.2%, and we all know that costs have risen even more since 2021.

    https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html

    Just another legacy of conservative rule that needs fixing.
    _____________

    I’ve posted re this many moons ago.

    I’d like to see Medicare scheduled fee levels taken out of govt hands and determined by an independent tribunal. It would then be up to the govt of the day to budget accordingly.

    Sounds like a better deal for doctors, eh? My take back is doctors have a responsibility to bulk bill and should have to apply to an independent body for an exemption from bulk billing (‘extraordinary circumstances’).

  2. Steve777says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:44 am
    Grey and gloomy in Sydney with unexpected, unforecast and unwanted rain. Is there a big cricket match on here today

    What is this rain of which you wrote? Nary a skerrick in Bennelong today.

  3. Oakeshott Country @ #3841 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 12:43 pm

    Optional preferences and placing LA elections in the referendum required section of the constitution occurred in April 1979 – so all Nifty’s work
    (Those of us who have been around a long time remember when preferences were not Labor’s friendj

    Thanks OC.
    So it will require a referendum to go back to full preferential.
    Can’t see that happening and/or passing.
    It probably seemed like a good idea at the time but the benefits have diminished over time.
    We basically have a bastardised first past the post which is fine if you have a high primary. Not so good without.
    I’m still expecting the Libs to win. Maybe hung.

  4. So when Gladbags said she could get Dom to do anything , she really was hinting that her photo album had a few party shots then?

  5. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 11:59 am
    No I had a typo I corrected it in my post. You can see Labor’s policy in its full glory as per the link

    http://Www.reformtherightway.com.au

    This is what you are voting for if you vote Labor in March.
    ________________________________________________________
    I’m glad I moved to Victoria three years ago. This is another reason why I’m glad. I hate to admit it Lars, but I think NSW Labor’s policy is a bloody disgrace. If I were still living north of the Murray, voting Labor would be one of the hardest things for me to do.
    Ever since Chris Minns and his mob disgracefully destabilised Jodi McKay when she was NSW Labor leader, to the point where caucus dumped her, it seems the state party has gone further downhill.
    Its stand on gambling recalls the state ALP’s equally disgraceful backing for the greyhound racing industry, when the NSW government was trying to ban it.
    I can truly say now that I am proud to be a Victorian.
    I am a Labor man and a member of the party. If I voted for any party other than Labor, I would have to in all conscience resign my membership

  6. Tesla prices reduced significantly and the question is why?

    To paraphrase James Carville “It’s the battery, stupid.” The most expensive component.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0-AD601fQA

    EV’s now at ICE prices and more reductions inevitable. In future instead of oil change a complete battery change is obviously an option.

    Vive the revolution!

  7. The similarities between the federal lib/nats and NSW Lib/nats governments recent election trends
    swing against 5-7%
    If the trend continues

    NSW lib/nats government currently in a minority on 45 seats
    would likely lose 8 + seats at the election which put the lib/nats into opposition

  8. Sceptic @ #3834 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 12:31 pm

    Pi says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 12:24 pm

    Why Cities Rock
    Could it be that cities are “our greatest invention” – that, despite their reputation as soot-spewing engines of doom, they in fact make us richer, smarter, happier and (gulp) greener?

    https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-cities-rock-2/

    Nope. It is true that Cities allow us to live with lower per-capita environmental impact. But they also allow for billions more of us to live – at least for a while – than the planet can support. So all the per capita savings we make by living in cities quite literally goes up in smoke anyway. And so in the end – whether we personally live in a city or not – we all end up worse off.

    Yes, cities are an invention. They are an invention that allows us to hide the damage we do. Best of all, they allow us to hide it from ourselves. But they are a financial invention rather than an environmental one – they allow us to borrow from the future at a lower interest rate.

  9. ‘Pi says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 1:01 pm

    In Singapore one time I used to live just off Bukit Timah road walking distance to Newton Circus.

    I became a big man. It took me the better part of a decade to work it off.’
    ——————————————-
    We used to eat there from time to time… partly for the ambience.

  10. NSW Labor is playing a clever game by refusing to be drawn into the Perrottet affair. Why interfere with the NSW Liberals ongoing internal problems close to the election?

    Murdoch has an interesting take on Labor’s reaction – the story is in The Oz and the DT where the article is not paywalled.

    ‘Won’t affect the campaign’: Chris Minns’ surprise response to Premier’s birthday Nazi costume scandal

    The NSW Opposition Leader has made a startling comment on the Nazi birthday costume scandal that has engulfed sitting Premier Dominic Perrottet.

    Dominic Perrottet’s political rival has said he doesn’t believe the Premier’s admission that he wore a Nazi costume to his 21st birthday party will affect the election.

    NSW Opposition Leader Chris Minns made the surprising comment on Saturday in the wake of the scandal, which has rocked the sitting Liberal Government and sent shockwaves through Dominic Perrottet’s leadership.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/breaking-news/wont-affect-the-campaign-chris-minns-surprise-response-to-premiers-birthday-nazi-costume-scandal/news-story/4a3009587157b60de3fbe26eda57bc36

  11. Benson in the Oz:

    Nazi hit: Liberals can’t stop the rot
    Whatever hope the Coalition had of retaining power in NSW must surely have evaporated.
    By SIMON BENSON (Oz headline)

  12. Granny Anny

    Further to your valid points on the failure of the medicare GP payment to keep pace with inflation, Xanthippe pointed out that there additional pressures.

    The cost of medical education in uni fees has increased significantly, and becoming a GP now requires a post grad college approval. So longer period of qualification and higher cost before you can start earning. Other specialties are now more attractive.

  13. If there are all state /territory (ACT Labor/greens) Labor governments on mainland Australia and Labor (Federal government).

    Wonder how much patience will the Murdochs have , with those in charge of the corrupt Murdoch Australian media , before there is a huge clean out

  14. This is a Ryan Reynolds ad just warning you: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_eHjifELI-k

    But the ChatGPT thing is no joke. If you haven’t used it yet, you really should. I questioned it earlier about areas and population densities. It actually suggested Victoria fwiw. Without me asking. Now how would it have assumed that? I was asking in Singapore area density terms.

    Give it a go. It’s really something else. Its ability to write development code is also pretty special.

  15. Pi says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 2:32 pm
    This is a Ryan Reynolds ad just warning you: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_eHjifELI-k

    But the ChatGPT thing is no joke. If you haven’t used it yet, you really should. I questioned it earlier about areas and population densities. It actually suggested Victoria fwiw. Without me asking. Now how would it have assumed that? I was asking in Singapore area density terms.

    Give it a go. It’s really something else. Its ability to write development code is also pretty special.
    ——————————————–

    I gave it a go and found a few errors ChatGPT can not tell the difference between cities and villages

    ChatGPT claims Thredbo village in NSW is the highest city in Australia

  16. It says that Orange is the highest city in NSW at 862m.

    Ha. and still says Thredbo for Oz. It also has a caveat that Thredbo is not considered a city as pet the usual definition but that it is the highest permanent settlement. Then it says the highest city is actually a town, Mt Isa.

    Then it starts getting weird. It eventually says Amidale: 930 metres.

    It can’t get around thinking that NSW and Australia are just states.

  17. Pi says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 2:43 pm
    It says that Orange is the highest city in NSW at 862m.

    Ha. and still says Thredbo for Oz. It also has a caveat that Thredbo is not considered a city as pet the usual definition but that it is the highest permanent settlement. Then it says the highest city is actually a town, Mt Isa.

    Then it starts getting weird. It eventually says Amidale: 930 metres.
    ——————–

    Seems tweaks to it need fixing

  18. it seems likely that allex hawke could have been behind this leak using elliott as the person to tell perrottit hawke was at the party used to be part of perrottits faction but split it seems strange that the facelis man hawke has a very low profile but when ever there some factional hawke allways to pop up to be in the media surely nine news are smart enough to realise there not friends

  19. OpenAI, who created ChatGPT and are working on its successor, is supported by Microsoft going back a few years, with additional funding of tens of billions being talked about. That money mainly goes into computing power. It’s also been speculated that Microsoft wants to compete with Google Search and currently has a technological edge. (You might have to “google it” if you’re looking for irony.)

  20. Pi says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 2:43 pm

    It says that Orange is the highest city in NSW at 862m.

    Ha. and still says Thredbo for Oz. It also has a caveat that Thredbo is not considered a city as pet the usual definition but that it is the highest permanent settlement. Then it says the highest city is actually a town, Mt Isa.

    Then it starts getting weird. It eventually says Amidale: 930 metres.

    It can’t get around thinking that NSW and Australia are just states.
    ____________

    Isn’t Aus the 51st state?

  21. i get the protend out rage at labors gambling policy perrottit has dun nothing to address problim gambling just because this michael west seems to want the liberals to winn with his rubish about gambling giving money to labor what about the party that changed the law to allow the packer casenow disbite provin money laundering not just vage claims like against clubs remember it was theindependent gaming regulator said crown was not fit to operate a new caseno but since they donate millions to the liberals monhey laundering in a caseno is okay

  22. also in 2011 the liberals signed an agreement with clubs nsw to increase the number of pocker machines yet people are falling foore this stunt that perrottit will never epliment he has given no details yet people are considering voteing foor the party that gave barilarow a trade role in the us desbite a nother candadate being offered first

  23. plus no other stateor no where in the world has this so called cashlis teck whats to prove its not just a nother government atempt to control our lives and nothing about gambling the greens usualy support human rights maybi michael west thinks the clubs should only donate to the liberals labor are all ways subject to higher standards the party of integrity still have property developers on local cowncils but perrottit is the party of integrity because smh owned buy costellow said so

  24. larz as usual btw this is not the labor platform he has linked clubs nsws campaign as your a liberal power brocker perhaps laz might like to answer whiy the liberals increased the number of pocker machines in clubs by weaking the gambling lisensis then suprise gambling gets worse he is only doing this becaus he knows perrottit is finished

  25. What is the NSW National party position on the cashless gambling card , do they agree or disagree

    Haven’t heard much from their leader

  26. Is it unfair to see Michelle Rowland as an underperformer? I am beginning to feel that she is not ministerial quality. Thoughts?

  27. agree re ggladis she seemed to have a similar apeel to the qld premier in being likable weather she was cerupt or not she seemed a hard worker who did not make evry ishue about her self but worked hard foor the community perrottit comes a cros as arogent and not genuwon he seems like on evry ishue he is triying to prove his moraly better then minns like in a sort of pompis wayi think the liberals would do better with kean at least he seems genuwon better foor minns to face perrottit

  28. yes most people woud think sarah mitchel is the most popular nats mp paul toole is invisable last time he spoke about toole a few months a go said he was aposed to the card kean would be a much better prospeect at least he could apeel to moderit liberals in a way perrottit can not plus his morale campaign to paint minns as somehow a pupit of pockies is under cut by the uniform so he can hardly say heis the better person

  29. S. Simpson @ #3907 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 3:21 pm

    Is it unfair to see Michelle Rowland as an underperformer? I am beginning to feel that she is not ministerial quality. Thoughts?

    I give her a tick in committing to keeping NBN Co in public hands rather than privatise it.

    However, service delivery across regional Australia must be on par with the cities and burbs.

  30. Talking of the height of cities, this Wikipedia article lists national capital cities by elevation. It surprised me how little I know about the topography of many countries and the location of their capital cities. For instance, despite being the ‘flattest’ continent, Australia’s capital is the 46th highest out of a list of 195.

    Perhaps make some guesses before opening the article (unless of course you already know).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_capital_cities_by_elevation

  31. Re Pell
    “There are many within the Church who see him as courageous and compassionate”.
    I have serious doubts when parsing that sentence. For a start, how many is “many”. There are about a billion Catholics in the Church, over 90% have never heard of Pell, and most of the rest like me are completely ambivalent towards him but strongly veering towards critical. Women in particular are scathing of him, even highly committed women. I wont discuss his compassion as that is oftenin the eye of the beholder, and I spent less than 10 minutes in his presence over 2 meetings.His courage is debatable, he attached himself limpet like to people of power and influence as a matter of course and seemingly used them as a protective shield as his world lately closed in. I have seen no images of him mixing in the rougher elements of his congregation as most priests do, notably like FR Bob.(who hecaused to be nobbled).
    I am a practicing Catholic, much flawed. I continue to practice because that opens oportunities to assist the poor, powerless, marginalised and discriminated against in our society. That sounds rather smug, I know but to me it givess me purpose in life and an opportunity to address in a small way concerns I have in the way our society has evolved. It also gives me a small glimpse into the workings of the Catholic Machine operated by the clergy, their bureacracy and the Bishops. This latter was the playing field dominated by Pell.
    A common failing of Journalists, and thus their readers is to ascribe to the Church a fixed org chart like an army or police force, where nomenclature clearly defines power. The position of Cardinal confers some benefits, mainly in the opportunity to vote on a new Pope if you are under 80 when the vote comes round. But otherwise the positions of Bishop, Archbishop and Cardinal are same same, subject for the most part to a group vote on most matters. Pell was seldom a winner in this forum. Pell was never the all powerful figure in the Catholic Church that the press contended, although I think Pell liked to think he might be.
    To most Catholics, Bishops of any rank especially Cardinals are remote figures possibly glimpsed in the flesh perhaps a couple of times per decade, and not much notice is taken of them. Most Catholics dont go to Church often, despite the urging of the Bishops. Most Catholics practise birth control against the teaching of the Church. Many Catholics dont get married in a Catholic Church, often choosing another denomination against the Church instructions. I could go on and on demonstrating the lack of real authority of the Church hierarchy over the members, even over seemingly devout practictioners.
    No Bishop has had any real power over the membership of the Catholic Church since at least the second world war, and certainly not Pell. Perhaps the last senior Cleric with exercisable power in Australia was Mannix over a century ago.

  32. ‘S. Simpson says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 3:21 pm

    Is it unfair to see Michelle Rowland as an underperformer? I am beginning to feel that she is not ministerial quality. Thoughts?’
    ————————
    Low quality troll.

  33. Cut Snake says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 3:39 pm

    Re Pell
    “There are many within the Church who see him as courageous and compassionate”.
    I have serious doubts when parsing that sentence. For a start, how many is “many”. There are about a billion Catholics in the Church, over 90% have never heard of Pell, and most of the rest like me are completely ambivalent towards him but strongly veering towards critical. Women in particular are scathing of him, even highly committed women. I wont discuss his compassion as that is oftenin the eye of the beholder, and I spent less than 10 minutes in his presence over 2 meetings.His courage is debatable, he attached himself limpet like to people of power and influence as a matter of course and seemingly used them as a protective shield as his world lately closed in. I have seen no images of him mixing in the rougher elements of his congregation as most priests do, notably like FR Bob.(who hecaused to be nobbled).
    I am a practicing Catholic, much flawed. I continue to practice because that opens oportunities to assist the poor, powerless, marginalised and discriminated against in our society. That sounds rather smug, I know but to me it givess me purpose in life and an opportunity to address in a small way concerns I have in the way our society has evolved. It also gives me a small glimpse into the workings of the Catholic Machine operated by the clergy, their bureacracy and the Bishops. This latter was the playing field dominated by Pell.
    A common failing of Journalists, and thus their readers is to ascribe to the Church a fixed org chart like an army or police force, where nomenclature clearly defines power. The position of Cardinal confers some benefits, mainly in the opportunity to vote on a new Pope if you are under 80 when the vote comes round. But otherwise the positions of Bishop, Archbishop and Cardinal are same same, subject for the most part to a group vote on most matters. Pell was seldom a winner in this forum. Pell was never the all powerful figure in the Catholic Church that the press contended, although I think Pell liked to think he might be.
    To most Catholics, Bishops of any rank especially Cardinals are remote figures possibly glimpsed in the flesh perhaps a couple of times per decade, and not much notice is taken of them. Most Catholics dont go to Church often, despite the urging of the Bishops. Most Catholics practise birth control against the teaching of the Church. Many Catholics dont get married in a Catholic Church, often choosing another denomination against the Church instructions. I could go on and on demonstrating the lack of real authority of the Church hierarchy over the members, even over seemingly devout practictioners.
    No Bishop has had any real power over the membership of the Catholic Church since at least the second world war, and certainly not Pell. Perhaps the last senior Cleric with exercisable power in Australia was Mannix over a century ago.
    ____________

    How many is ‘many’?

    Margaret Thatcher story (no idea if true) taking place at a press conference…

    Journalist begins a question with “A lot of people are concerned about your policy on X…”

    Thatcher interjects “Really? Name six.”

  34. A group of four towns in the upper Blue Mountains with a combined population of about 15,000 (Katoomba to Mt Victoria) would be the most populated area in Australia above 1,000 metres. They might also count as Australia’s highest suburbs. Guyra (pop about 2,000) at an elevation of 1,330 metres in the New England area of NSW is probably Australia’s highest “real” town. The few higher settlements are ski resorts or company towns (e.g Cabramurra, now closed, 1,488 m).

  35. Snappy Tom @ #3896 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 3:49 pm

    Cut Snake says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 3:39 pm

    Re Pell
    “There are many within the Church who see him as courageous and compassionate”.
    I have serious doubts when parsing that sentence. For a start, how many is “many”. There are about a billion Catholics in the Church, over 90% have never heard of Pell, and most of the rest like me are completely ambivalent towards him but strongly veering towards critical. Women in particular are scathing of him, even highly committed women. I wont discuss his compassion as that is oftenin the eye of the beholder, and I spent less than 10 minutes in his presence over 2 meetings.His courage is debatable, he attached himself limpet like to people of power and influence as a matter of course and seemingly used them as a protective shield as his world lately closed in. I have seen no images of him mixing in the rougher elements of his congregation as most priests do, notably like FR Bob.(who hecaused to be nobbled).
    I am a practicing Catholic, much flawed. I continue to practice because that opens oportunities to assist the poor, powerless, marginalised and discriminated against in our society. That sounds rather smug, I know but to me it givess me purpose in life and an opportunity to address in a small way concerns I have in the way our society has evolved. It also gives me a small glimpse into the workings of the Catholic Machine operated by the clergy, their bureacracy and the Bishops. This latter was the playing field dominated by Pell.
    A common failing of Journalists, and thus their readers is to ascribe to the Church a fixed org chart like an army or police force, where nomenclature clearly defines power. The position of Cardinal confers some benefits, mainly in the opportunity to vote on a new Pope if you are under 80 when the vote comes round. But otherwise the positions of Bishop, Archbishop and Cardinal are same same, subject for the most part to a group vote on most matters. Pell was seldom a winner in this forum. Pell was never the all powerful figure in the Catholic Church that the press contended, although I think Pell liked to think he might be.
    To most Catholics, Bishops of any rank especially Cardinals are remote figures possibly glimpsed in the flesh perhaps a couple of times per decade, and not much notice is taken of them. Most Catholics dont go to Church often, despite the urging of the Bishops. Most Catholics practise birth control against the teaching of the Church. Many Catholics dont get married in a Catholic Church, often choosing another denomination against the Church instructions. I could go on and on demonstrating the lack of real authority of the Church hierarchy over the members, even over seemingly devout practictioners.
    No Bishop has had any real power over the membership of the Catholic Church since at least the second world war, and certainly not Pell. Perhaps the last senior Cleric with exercisable power in Australia was Mannix over a century ago.
    ____________

    How many is ‘many’?

    Margaret Thatcher story (no idea if true) taking place at a press conference…

    Journalist begins a question with “A lot of people are concerned about your policy on X…”

    Thatcher interjects “Really? Name six.”

    Richard Carleton.
    On 60 things from memory.
    Not a Thatcher fan but Carleton looked like a dill.

  36. Pi @ #3867 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 2:32 pm

    Give (ChatGPT) a go. It’s really something else. Its ability to write development code is also pretty special.

    After a tedious, long and drawn out conversation on representation (as reflection) in politics to test its powers to deal with open-ended questions I asked it for a death metal song about golf. The bridge did crack me up.

    Verse 1:
    Driving down the fairway, with my 9 iron in my hand
    Swinging with precision, to crush the sand
    I am the master of this course, the king of the greens
    My enemies cower, as my metal screams

    Chorus:
    Golf is war, and I am the death
    Slicing through the wind, with every breath
    My club is my weapon, my ball is my bomb
    I am the golfer of death, and I will never be gone

    Verse 2:
    The greens are my battlefield, the flagstick my prey
    I’ll chip and putt, with no delay
    I’ll conquer every hole, with my blood-soaked club
    My victory is certain, my enemies in a rub

    Chorus:
    Golf is war, and I am the death
    Slicing through the wind, with every breath
    My club is my weapon, my ball is my bomb
    I am the golfer of death, and I will never be gone

    Bridge:
    Fore! Beware, my enemies, for I am coming through
    With every swing, I’ll crush and rend you
    The clubhouse will be mine, and my glory will be known
    For I am the golfer of death, and I will never be shown

    Outro:
    Golf is war, and I am the death
    Slicing through the wind, with every breath
    My club is my weapon, my ball is my bomb
    I am the golfer of death, and I will never be gone

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