New year miscellany (open thread)

Two minor bits of federal polling news, a change in party representation in the House of Representatives, and looming electoral events in the Northern Territory and Victoria.

‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:

• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.

• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.

• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.

• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.

• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.

• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,057 comments on “New year miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 79 of 82
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  2. But not as big a dick as when Jana Wendt interviewed Madeleine Albright
    Wendt: do you feel that being Jewish has affected your career
    Albright: I am not Jewish

  3. Cut Snake @ #3894 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 3:39 pm

    Re Pell
    “There are many within the Church who see him as courageous and compassionate”.
    I have serious doubts when parsing that sentence. For a start, how many is “many”. There are about a billion Catholics in the Church, over 90% have never heard of Pell, and most of the rest like me are completely ambivalent towards him but strongly veering towards critical. Women in particular are scathing of him, even highly committed women. I wont discuss his compassion as that is oftenin the eye of the beholder, and I spent less than 10 minutes in his presence over 2 meetings.His courage is debatable, he attached himself limpet like to people of power and influence as a matter of course and seemingly used them as a protective shield as his world lately closed in. I have seen no images of him mixing in the rougher elements of his congregation as most priests do, notably like FR Bob.(who hecaused to be nobbled).
    I am a practicing Catholic, much flawed. I continue to practice because that opens oportunities to assist the poor, powerless, marginalised and discriminated against in our society. That sounds rather smug, I know but to me it givess me purpose in life and an opportunity to address in a small way concerns I have in the way our society has evolved. It also gives me a small glimpse into the workings of the Catholic Machine operated by the clergy, their bureacracy and the Bishops. This latter was the playing field dominated by Pell.
    A common failing of Journalists, and thus their readers is to ascribe to the Church a fixed org chart like an army or police force, where nomenclature clearly defines power. The position of Cardinal confers some benefits, mainly in the opportunity to vote on a new Pope if you are under 80 when the vote comes round. But otherwise the positions of Bishop, Archbishop and Cardinal are same same, subject for the most part to a group vote on most matters. Pell was seldom a winner in this forum. Pell was never the all powerful figure in the Catholic Church that the press contended, although I think Pell liked to think he might be.
    To most Catholics, Bishops of any rank especially Cardinals are remote figures possibly glimpsed in the flesh perhaps a couple of times per decade, and not much notice is taken of them. Most Catholics dont go to Church often, despite the urging of the Bishops. Most Catholics practise birth control against the teaching of the Church. Many Catholics dont get married in a Catholic Church, often choosing another denomination against the Church instructions. I could go on and on demonstrating the lack of real authority of the Church hierarchy over the members, even over seemingly devout practictioners.
    No Bishop has had any real power over the membership of the Catholic Church since at least the second world war, and certainly not Pell. Perhaps the last senior Cleric with exercisable power in Australia was Mannix over a century ago.

    Hi Cut Snake

    I have fond memories of we younger children practicising hand-stands below the living-room doorway where Dr Mannix’s portrait once hung. That would’ve been the late 1950s. Not sure when he was banished.

    I remember Dad telling us, seriously, to Vote Mack Back, sometime in the 70s. I’m pretty sure, except for one brother, none of us followed that advice.

  6. I am a practicing Catholic, much flawed. I continue to practice because that opens oportunities to assist the poor, powerless, marginalised and discriminated against in our society. That sounds rather smug, I know but to me it givess me purpose in life and an opportunity to address in a small way concerns I have in the way our society has evolved. It also gives me a small glimpse into the workings of the Catholic Machine operated by the clergy, their bureacracy and the Bishops. This latter was the playing field dominated by Pell.

    A noble purpose that can be practiced outside of this deeply flawed organisation Id’ve thought.

  7. Bennelong Lurker ”What is this rain of which you wrote? Nary a skerrick in Bennelong today.”

    It had cleared by late morning. It seems to have been confined to within about 15 km of the coast, with little or nothing West of about Hombush.

  9. Michelle Rowland has the right agenda with the NBN in my opinion.

    Having a flexible mindset to financial returns in specific settings and situations is sensible.

    We’ve seen what happens to essential services when they’re privatised and profits are the be-all-and-end-all. Disaster.

  10. Oakeshott Country @ #3902 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 4:05 pm

    But not as big a dick as when Jana Wendt interviewed Madeleine Albright
    Wendt: do you feel that being Jewish has affected your career
    Albright: I am not Jewish

    I presume this question was asked in Jan 1997 or earlier. Had Wendt asked the question later she might have had a better question about Albright’s Jewish heritage.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/govt/admin/stories/albright020497.htm

    https://web.archive.org/web/20190426215143/https://www.ushmm.org/confront-antisemitism/antisemitism-podcast/madeleine-k-albright

    There are suggestions however, that Albright knew about her Jewish heritage before the Washington Post published their story: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/1997/02/did-she-know.html

  11. Yes interesting Don Key but no matter the facts of Albright’s awareness of her heritage, as far as I know, she never identified as Jewish

  14. NYT

    Kellyanne Conway: The Cases for and Against Trump
    Jan. 13, 2023

    Donald J. Trump shocked the world in 2016 by winning the White House and becoming the first president in U.S. history with no prior military or government experience. He upended the fiction of electability pushed by pundits, the news media and many political consultants, which arrogantly projects who will or will not win long before votes are cast. He focused instead on capturing a majority in the Electoral College, which is how a candidate does or does not win. Not unlike Barack Obama eight years earlier, Mr. Trump exposed the limits of Hillary Clinton’s political inevitability and personal likability, connected directly with people, ran an outsider’s campaign taking on the establishment, and tapped into the frustrations and aspirations of millions of Americans.

    Some people have never gotten over it. Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. There is no vaccine and no booster for it. Cosseted in their social media bubbles and comforted within self-selected communities suffering from sameness, the afflicted disguise their hatred for Mr. Trump as a righteous call for justice or a solemn love of democracy and country. So desperate is the incessant cry to “get Trump!” that millions of otherwise pleasant and productive citizens have become naggingly less so. They ignore the shortcomings, failings and unpopularity of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and abide the casual misstatements of an administration that says the “border is secure,” inflation is “transitory,” “sanctions are intended to deter” Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine and they will “shut down the virus.” They’ve also done precious little to learn and understand what drives the 74 million fellow Americans who were Trump-Pence voters in 2020 and not in the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

    I think Kellyanne has serious problems

  16. Sir Henry Parkes @ #3857 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 1:36 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 11:59 am
    No I had a typo I corrected it in my post. You can see Labor’s policy in its full glory as per the link

    http://Www.reformtherightway.com.au

    This is what you are voting for if you vote Labor in March.
    ________________________________________________________
    I’m glad I moved to Victoria three years ago. This is another reason why I’m glad. I hate to admit it Lars, but I think NSW Labor’s policy is a bloody disgrace. If I were still living north of the Murray, voting Labor would be one of the hardest things for me to do.
    Ever since Chris Minns and his mob disgracefully destabilised Jodi McKay when she was NSW Labor leader, to the point where caucus dumped her, it seems the state party has gone further downhill.
    Its stand on gambling recalls the state ALP’s equally disgraceful backing for the greyhound racing industry, when the NSW government was trying to ban it.
    I can truly say now that I am proud to be a Victorian.
    I am a Labor man and a member of the party. If I voted for any party other than Labor, I would have to in all conscience resign my membership

    You do realise that this was just another slimy manouevre by Liar von Trier, don’t you? This isn’t Labor’s policy page at all, it’s the policy page of Clubs NSW. They are different. That oleaginous slimeball is trying to imply they are the same and suck the gullible in. I thought you were more intelligent than that, Sir Henry Parkes. 😐

  17. The Greens policy seems to be 100,000 refugee and humanitarian places with an unspecified number of migrants in other categories above that.

    Budget for humanitarian component: $600,000,000. There is no provision for social service costs, education costs, medical costs*, or housing costs in this. There is no budget allowance for migrants who are not in a humanitarian category.

    *Many of them will require psychological help. But the system is not working for the existing population. Not costed in the Greens budget either.

    Where are those 400,000 over the next four years going to live?

    Well we know this much:
    1. Not where koalas or other endangered species live.
    2. Not in existing rental properties which are oversubscribed.

  19. Boerwar @ #3897 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 3:39 pm

    ‘S. Simpson says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 3:21 pm

    Is it unfair to see Michelle Rowland as an underperformer? I am beginning to feel that she is not ministerial quality. Thoughts?’
    ————————
    Low quality troll.

    Yep. Obviously is completely unaware of Michelle’s CV … in Information Technology.

    Rowland was a senior telecommunications lawyer with law firm Gilbert + Tobin in Sydney.

  21. perottits team seems devided unlike the greens we should not get distracted buy the daley anti greens poasts there was a liberal party factional attack on the premier and Allex hawke who usualy has a low profile just happind to be on nine news claiming he has perrottits full support when it is well known that Hawke and perrottit and him dont get on well any more and elliott just happins to be member of his faction and happind to tell perrotit about it but perhaps hawke does not like elliott he did not find him a seatt

  22. Hawke is a typical facelis man allways appears on the news when there is a factional disbute but keeps a low profile the rest of the time when he was immigration minister he hardly ever appeared in the media

  23. There was an interesting profile off hawke in the herald leading up to the election he was discribed the ruthlis factional leader in the liberal it quoated matt kean sayingbasickly that hawke is a good numbers man but he would risk the liberals loosing government if it ment it could keep internal power he was discribed as back room power broker reportidly told turnbull he had his support while secritly working to help morrison replace him

  26. The fire in the Adelaide Hills is a long way from Verdun and Lobethal. It would have to burn a lot of ground albeit some inaccessible. To me the issue is the Tour Down Under is scheduled to pass along the roads that have now been closed. But it should be OK for the riders but spectators may have a less scenic spot to watch the riders.

  27. Pi @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 12:08 pm

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne

    Area : 9,993 km2 (3,858.3 sq mi)(GCCSA)[2]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney

    Area : 12,367.7 km2 (4,775.2 sq mi)(GCCSA)[2]

    It just so happens that the page you linked to for Sydney says:

    "The city has over 1,000,000 ha (2,500,000 acres) of nature reserves and parks"

    1,000,000 ha = 10,000 km2

    The point is that almost everybody lives in the much smaller area I mentioned. 12 thousand square kilometres would be the equivalent of a square with sides 109 kilometres long, which measured from the Sydney GPO (with it being located virtually in the centre of the eastern side) would extend further than Gosford in the north (it's only 52 km north) and the northern suburbs of Wollongong in the south and well past Katoomba in the west. Nobody really thinks that Gosford, Wollongong or the Blue Mountains are actually in Sydney.

    And, of course, you have to include a huge amount of non inhabited green space eg parks, including national parks and bushland to get the 12,0000+ km2 area.

    Singapore has a total area of 733.1 km2. How much of that is green space? Whatever the amount is, there’s a hell of a lot less green space per person in Singapore than there is in the definition of Sydney you are using. You’d have been better to stick to my definition of Sydney (2142 km2)

  28. Where are those 400,000 over the next four years going to live?

    Well we know this much:
    1. Not where koalas or other endangered species live.
    2. Not in existing rental properties which are oversubscribed.

    I wonder if the Greens actually had to make any of these decisions, would they be as enthusiastic for immigration as they are now.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 4:48 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #3857 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 1:36 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 11:59 am
    No I had a typo I corrected it in my post. You can see Labor’s policy in its full glory as per the link

    http://Www.reformtherightway.com.au

    This is what you are voting for if you vote Labor in March.
    ________________________________________________________
    I’m glad I moved to Victoria three years ago. This is another reason why I’m glad. I hate to admit it Lars, but I think NSW Labor’s policy is a bloody disgrace. If I were still living north of the Murray, voting Labor would be one of the hardest things for me to do.
    Ever since Chris Minns and his mob disgracefully destabilised Jodi McKay when she was NSW Labor leader, to the point where caucus dumped her, it seems the state party has gone further downhill.
    Its stand on gambling recalls the state ALP’s equally disgraceful backing for the greyhound racing industry, when the NSW government was trying to ban it.
    I can truly say now that I am proud to be a Victorian.
    I am a Labor man and a member of the party. If I voted for any party other than Labor, I would have to in all conscience resign my membership

    You do realise that this was just another slimy manouevre by Liar von Trier, don’t you? This isn’t Labor’s policy page at all, it’s the policy page of Clubs NSW. They are different. That oleaginous slimeball is trying to imply they are the same and suck the gullible in. I thought you were more intelligent than that, Sir Henry Parkes.
    __________________________________________________________
    I must admit I became aware of that fact after I posted, C@t.
    However, and it’s a big however, I also read Michael Pascoe’s article in the New Daily, in which he notes Chris Minns’ silence on the issue. Minns has already waffled on about not wanting to endanger jobs in the clubs industry, despite the relevant union telling him that is not an issue.
    If you can tell me C@t what Labor’s policy on pokies is, and if you can tell me the party is as concerned about it as I am, I shall be a happy man, pleased to admit that I got it wrong.
    I usually agree with what you post C@t, but I don’t think anyone should let their loyalty to the party get in the way of what must be done.

  30. Sir Henry Parkes says:
    I can truly say now that I am proud to be a Victorian.
    ___________
    You should familiarize yourself with the history of the Victorian ALP, the Packers and Crown Casino.

    Most notably, a 100k donation to the Vic ALP made after the 1999 election which seemingly brought about an end to a raft of reforms and regulations aimed at reducing Crowns’ impact on the city.

  31. does nsw labor have to have a policy on gambling it is not like it is a main stream ishue and it is good tacdicks not to fight an election on your aponent this perrottits terms stick to the stratigy anddont let the mesige get away from you on to what perrottit wants to talk as the nationals have not publickly backed and no member of cabenit with acseption of rob stokes has backed this apart from the perrotits personal views it does not appear to have cabenit support if perrottit was comfident he would be able to implement he would take it to cabenit he is not because he would loose

  32. pllus minns not following what the union says is also smart as it shows he will not all ways follow the unions position no cabenit minister has publickly backed the card

  33. Like a dog with a bone nath 😆

    SHP you’ve come to the great state at a most difficult time with covid and the rebuilding of Victorian infrastructure. We will be better for it all down the track. 😆

  38. Paul, 50% of Singapore is green space, and in the areas that have the same population density in Sydney, it is about 15%. In the outer urban it’s 58%. Melbourne has about the same in the inner, but only 20% in the outer. Suburban it’s 20-35. In Sydney, for most people, it’s about 30.% Of course Singapore doesn’t have the volume of space; they’re a fraction of the size. But they do have more green space for the people that live there at those densities as a percentage by a significant margin.

    Singapore is less than a 10th of the size of greater Sydney or greater Melbourne, and has more of a percentage of green space in their city as a proportion of space than either of the cities in oz.

    Source is Beyond the backyard: Hsu, Hawken, Lin.

  39. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:30 pm

    What Bracks started, Andrews finished.
    __________
    Oh absolutely. Total obeisance to the Packers. If it wasn’t for all the favors who knows if James would have been able to get the 9 billion for Crown.

    I’d say they were at least worth a billion.

  40. nathsays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:04 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes says:
    I can truly say now that I am proud to be a Victorian.
    ___________
    You should familiarize yourself with the history of the Victorian ALP, the Packers and Crown Casino.

    Most notably, a 100k donation to the Vic ALP made after the 1999 election which seemingly brought about an end to a raft of reforms and regulations aimed at reducing Crowns’ impact on the city.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Whilst on history nath wasn’t it Jeff Kennett whom approved the casino in 1994?
    And the first operator a couple of good libs in ‘property developers’ Walker and Williams.

    Off topic as an aside a close mate of mine told me that one day he was a passenger in a Walker driven rolls limousine.
    As they waited for the mega garage doors to open at Walkers Toorak mansion, Walker leaned across and out of the blue mumbled – do you know what Terry?

    No Mr Walker.? The unions are fucking this country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Open garage as they drove in revealed many top of the range cars.
    Mate Terry loved recalling that story.

  41. Interesting c@t has gone v.quiet on Sir Henry’s challenge to demonstrate Labor’s commitment to addressing problem gambling.

    When you’ve lost Michael Pascoe and Michael West its clear you have a problem with the Michael’s at the very least.

  42. Dr John says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Whilst on history nath wasn’t it Jeff Kennett whom approved the casino in 1994?
    And the first operator a couple of good libs in ‘property developers’ Walker and Williams.
    ___________
    I do believe that the Kirner government approved a Casino, but it was delivered in Kennett’s time and with much enthusiasm. Both parties in Victoria have bent over backwards to accommodate Crown.

    When Kennett was Premier Labor was very anti-Crown. I actually did HTV for the Vic Labor party in 1999, partly because they were promising to really go after Crown. The other main reason was police reform. Anyway, you can imagine my surprise when after the 1999 election, the Packers fly down to Melbourne, have a chat with Labor, fork out 100k and the reforms/regulations never take place.

    That’s when cynicism truly entered my heart and it has served me well.

  44. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:45 pm
    Matching Perrottet’s gaming card policy is a no-brainer for Minns.

    Not doing it shows Clubs NSW are pulling his strings.
    _______________________________________
    The real question is why Labor won’t match it? As Pascoe says integrity remains an issue with NSW Labor.

  45. When Kennett was Premier Labor was very anti-Crown. I actually did HTV for the Vic Labor party in 1999, partly because they were promising to really go after Crown. The other main reason was police reform. Anyway, you can imagine my surprise when after the 1999 election, the Packers fly down to Melbourne, have a chat with Labor, fork out 100k and the reforms/regulations never take place.

    Dan delivered for you Nath.

  46. I also admit that I was chasing a young woman in Labor who was fiercely anti-pokies and no doubt this influenced my thinking at the time. So I have my own hypocrisy to live with, but mine was at least was driven by raging horniness and not by cash.

  47. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:49 pm

    Dan delivered for you Nath.
    __________
    The sad thing is Rex, I think you have more than an inkling about what has gone on between Labor and the Packers but when it comes to Andrews you are a bigger stooge than C@t.

    Of course I still voted for Labor, but always reluctantly and with criticism.

  48. nath @ #3967 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 6:51 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:49 pm

    Dan delivered for you Nath.
    __________
    The sad thing is Rex, I think you have more than an inkling about what has gone on between Labor and the Packers but when it comes to Andrews you are a bigger stooge than C@t.

    Of course I still voted for Labor, but always reluctantly and with criticism.

    I’ll be the first one to congratulate you when you finally nail him nath. 🙂

  50. Dr John says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:55 pm

    I know a previous lecturer at your old alma mater Swinburne whom did very well with his female students.
    _________
    Professor Costar was at Monash for decades before Swinburne. I would have no idea about Swinburne.

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