New year miscellany (open thread)

Two minor bits of federal polling news, a change in party representation in the House of Representatives, and looming electoral events in the Northern Territory and Victoria.

‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:

• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.

• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.

• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.

• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.

• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.

• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,057 comments on “New year miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Oakeshott Country at 12.43 pm and Aqualung at 1.26 pm

    Wran was Premier when Optional Preferential was ensconced, but to say it was “all Nifty’s work” is an overstatement. Another person, named Graham Richardson, then General Secretary of NSW Labor, most probably decided the matter in his usual way.

    According to Bill Hayden, Richardson once explained his usual way to him in these terms: “… all decisions are democratically taken at a meeting of one; me.” (Hayden’s autobiography, p 16o.)

    In November the AFR referred to Richo as “the Rene Rivkin scholar”, on account of his former dispute with the ATO over his secret ownership of Offset Alpine Printing with Rivkin and another investor.

    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/premier-state-s-lobbyist-richo-still-incognito-20221113-p5bxt6

    Richo was clearly not a scholar of comparative politics. Already by 1979 the conditions for the formation of Die Grunen in West Germany a year later were evident, and the United Tasmania Group had contested elections in 1972 on an ecological platform. No genius was required to foresee that Optional Preferential might not help Labor forever.

    Richo is still creating problems for Labor, criticising its so-called haste over the Voice.

    See: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/voice-to-parliament/labor-elderstatesman-graham-richardson-says-the-government-has-left-australia-behind-in-its-race-to-implement-voice-to-parliament/news-story/965c52d2fa9d3da1af23a07cac25b7a5

    The Uluru Statement from the Heart is nearly 6 years old, but Richo has not taken the time so far to read all the public material about why it is an important historical step.

  2. Didn’t Kennett lock the state into deals with Crown and Transurban that would have created massive payouts had the State ALP passed laws that impacted either of their respective monopolies (not only locking in the casino but also the primacy of toll roads vs public transport projects until Andrews)?

    I voted Greens at state level at that time but it was a protest at my perception of a lack of environmental action by Bracks/Brumby not blame for the Casino.

    NSW Labor has regularly given me the impression that had I the misfortune of living in Sydney I would have spent my state political energy finding independents worth backing.

  3. Richo is a feather duster barely shifting motes in a comms space that is virtually devoid of listeners.

    Thorpe and Dutton are both in the same space: bargaining on the basis that the Voice (and Indigenous wishes) are expendable.

  4. Maybe the cashless card has not been backed because Labor wants to actually do something about problem gambling?

    The cashless card, despite the attempts by the Heralds, is first and foremost about money laundering. It is a continuation of the push away from cash and is an extension of the recently shelved policy lines similar to the ban on cash transactions over limits.

    Problem gambling is just the cover for the campaign as people recognise it as a real issue and saying its all about getting rid of cash invokes natural suspicion and opposition.

    There is a need to address the scourge of pokies. Reduction in bet limits could be a start? Reduction in inducements clubs give to gamblers and ramping up compliance and penalties around RCG? Removing some licences from the system perhaps? Or perhaps imposing positive and enforceable obligations and duties on clubs and pubs to identify and stop problem gambling (allowing breaches to be enforced by families or something). Sure, most ideas will go nowhere, and perhaps ultimately a cashless card is the answer but at the moment it is nothing more than Perrottet saying its good without any questioning why he has not done so before now or where and how it will be implemented. Before he gets credit and before Labor is derided I think the wider public is entitled to say wheres the detail Dom.

  5. wranslide @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:14 pm

    1. If Labor want to do something, they need to say something, and

    2. without mandatory cashless gambling, how do you institute betting limits? Per machine? Per venue? Please.

    And you didn’t answer the other day. Are you saying NSW Labor and Liberal are same-same on gambling policy?

  6. Pell was among other things a massive climate science denier who linked religion to his climate conspiracy nutbaggery. Even while the actual Pope was telling Catholics it is their religious duty to do something about climate change, Pell was trying to make out that Catholicism religion demands rejecting climate science.

    Of course, as we’ve seen Pell had no truck with papal infallibility generally even while ironically demanding the church stick to its most old school doctrines and not stop hating gay people.

    Can’t help but think Pell considered the echo chamber in his head to be the true Voice of God and the Pope to be an inconvenience.

  7. ABC News piece on the bombing of Darwin and the government’s coverup. This has images of Menzies giving a press conference in the 1950s!
    It was Curtin who (quite rightly) lied through his teeth during an ABC address to the nation on the night of the attack. He ended with “The Government has told you the truth…Take it like Australians”

  8. Gday Griff. Yes, part of my post was poorly expressed. Bet limits was my attempt to express lowering the maximum bet per machine. I think Wilkie originally proposed $1. You could also regulate the time between spins. For example, in the US, basically you can stop reels as soon as you press. That is not allowed in Oz. So there is potential to manipulate it further. And Labor has said it is concerned about it but it wants to make sure the thing actually works for the people who need it to work for them. That is not a bad thing.

    Also, sorry to have missed your question to me the other day. It was remiss of me not to respond to you and answer you. The libs certainly dont stand for a cashless gaming card.

  9. That’s when cynicism truly entered my heart and it has served me well.

    nath, you would have doubled down on the cynicism when Jamie Packer’s mother donated $500k to the NSW Liberals – ongoing – and almost by magic, Jamie got Barangaroo without a tender process.

    And as things turned out, he has parlayed this good fortune into $9,000,000,000 to spend his days on his super yacht bribing Israeli polictians

  10. sprocket_ @ #3963 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 7:34 pm

    That’s when cynicism truly entered my heart and it has served me well.

    nath, you would have doubled down on the cynicism when Jamie Packer’s mother donated $500k to the NSW Liberals – ongoing – and almost by magic, Jamie got Barangaroo without a tender process.

    And as things turned out, he has parlayed this good fortune into $9,000,000,000 to spend his days on his super yacht bribing Israeli polictians

    Ah yes. The unsolicited proposal that a former premier suggested he should submit.

  11. On a COMPLETELY different tack, I kind of feel sorry for the family of the Melbourne architect and Kim K doppelganger who is apparently shacked up with Crazy Kanye. You know that it’s only a matter of seconds before his fans decide that she’s the real cause of his recent Hitler-loving nutbaggery and blame her (that said, if you shack up with a Nazi you have only yourself to blame don’t you?). Her family probably need to change their number and move to Antarctica to avoid the tabloid press too.

  12. Sprocket makes a good point – as the Maoists said “dare to struggle dare to win”. Turn agains the 2 party duopoly Liberal and Labor!!!.

  13. Arky @ #3967 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 7:41 pm

    On a COMPLETELY different tack, I kind of feel sorry for the family of the Melbourne architect and Kim K doppelganger who is apparently shacked up with Crazy Kanye. You know that it’s only a matter of seconds before his fans decide that she’s the real cause of his recent Hitler-loving nutbaggery and blame her (that said, if you shack up with a Nazi you have only yourself to blame don’t you?). Her family probably need to change their number and move to Antarctica to avoid the tabloid press too.

    As soon as I saw the story about his marriage to that woman, I thought, does she realise he’s batshit crazy?

  14. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    And as things turned out, he has parlayed this good fortune into $9,000,000,000 to spend his days on his super yacht bribing Israeli polictians
    _______
    Yeah but he couldn’t even get Mariah Carey into the sack despite a 13 million dollar engagement ring.

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/hook-ups-break-ups/mariah-carey-reveals-sex-detail-with-exfiance-billionaire-james-packer/news-story/f215fea8d93909ba3d7cb85260fe36bd

  15. Had cause to visit Bateman’s Bay today. Good to see Fiona Phillips electorate office prominently placed between the main drag and the new mega malls.

    Also of interest was the still up sign promoting the $274m spent on the new concrete bridge across the Clyde, sadly did Andrew Constance no good. (Could pork be so last century?)

    And the beach at Malua Bay was excellent. In addition to the well staffed Clubbies, there was a drone operator – appeared to be an official type from a government agency. On the lookout for sharks and rips.

  16. Kayne West is ill. He is well known to be diagnosed bipolar. Calling him crazy and ‘bat shit crazy’ is unhelpful and a great disservice to those who are mentally ill. Should his behaviour be tolerated and accepted? No. But there is a need to temper our own language in response to his behaviour.

  17. V.true wranslide as the person making those comments has a well documented history of health crises which they choose to share on this forum – usually when they’ve been called on their own BS.

  18. Lars Von Trier @ #3943 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 6:40 pm

    Interesting c@t has gone v.quiet on Sir Henry’s challenge to demonstrate Labor’s commitment to addressing problem gambling.

    When you’ve lost Michael Pascoe and Michael West its clear you have a problem with the Michael’s at the very least.

    Fuck off. I have simply not been sitting on my computer all afternoon like the sad individual you are, Liar von Trier.

    Oh and you can take your purity tests and shove them. I don’t answer to Michael Pascoe or Michael West. Nor do NSW Labor.

  19. Unfortunately Lars, I have come to expect that sort of reckless abandon in her comments. I guess when you rise to a position of considerable power in a political party it can be difficult to reflect and be conscious of the challenges of those below you in the power chain.

  20. wranslide @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:32 pm
    “Gday Griff. Yes, part of my post was poorly expressed. Bet limits was my attempt to express lowering the maximum bet per machine. I think Wilkie originally proposed $1. You could also regulate the time between spins. For example, in the US, basically you can stop reels as soon as you press. That is not allowed in Oz. So there is potential to manipulate it further. And Labor has said it is concerned about it but it wants to make sure the thing actually works for the people who need it to work for them. That is not a bad thing.

    Also, sorry to have missed your question to me the other day. It was remiss of me not to respond to you and answer you. The libs certainly dont stand for a cashless gaming card.”

    Yes one can start playing with the machines themselves. Happy to give that a go in addition to cashless gambling that allows for daily limits. I am also keen for limiting gambling to pub hours. No more 3am gambling in “VIP rooms”.

    As for Labor wanting to look into it, sounds good. Let’s see the policy. Are they going to fund research? A trial? Anything?

    With respect to the Liberals, so far the evidence is that there is correlation at least between even mentioning a cashless gambling policy and a hit job. Impressive for an empty election promise 😉

    While I prefer Labor to commit to addressing the issue, the fact remains that the Liberals threw the dead cat onto the table. And it attracted my attention.

  21. Fun fact: the Liberal Premier who granted Barangaroo to Jamie Packer without a tender was Mike Baird.

    Now chairman of the Australian Cricket Board.

  22. Griff. There is absolutely no connection between the cashless card and the latest drama with Perrottet and his choice of Nazi Uniform. It was an internal hit job associated with the dissatisfaction with Perrottet and other purported powerbrokers (who never seem to be able to carry a deal through). It was not concerned with the card.

    Griff, you do realise that when the cashless card was an actual proposal and could have gotten off the ground it was rejected by the Cabinet? Victor Dominello actually put a proposal up for implementation. The response of Perrottet was to shelve it and shelve him out of the portfolio. It could not get through the Government and still cant. Dominello was replaced in the portfolio by Perrottet with a National. And they oppose it 100%.

    But dont let the facts get in the way of a good SMH generated campaign to try to save the NSW Libs.

  23. ‘… the AFR referred to Richo as “the Rene Rivkin scholar”, on account of his former dispute with the ATO over his secret ownership of Offset Alpine Printing with Rivkin and another investor.’

    If the Love Boat’s rockin’, don’t bother knockin’!

  24. Lars Von Trier @ #3975 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 7:48 pm

    V.true wranslide as the person making those comments has a well documented history of health crises which they choose to share on this forum – usually when they’ve been called on their own BS.

    More bullshit from you, Liar.

    Honestly, what do you get out of being so slimy?

    Not to mention you haven’t even got the guts to say my name.

    You are one pathetic, sad, and probably lonely and partner-less, individual. That you spend all your days here sliming people like me attests to that.

    To just remind people how slimy you are, and how you love accusing me of things that are absolutely 100% false, you accused me multiple times of being a lush and of being a ‘Backdoor Betty’. The sickest thing of all is that you are proud of yourself when you sink to those lows. The most recent one of which is that I use my illnesses as a deflection shield when I get called on my BS. When the facts of the matter are that it’s usually you or one of the other miscreants that think they have got me bang to rights over some thing or another, when 9 times out of 10 you are wrong. And if I’m wrong I usually admit it. And, at no time have I ever used my medical condition or illnesses to hide from it.

    Nevertheless, it’s not you it’s me that people say is the heart and soul of this blog. And boy, that really seems to grind your gears, going by the way I am targeted relentlessly by you. Anyway, keep it up for as long as you like. I guess it keeps you off the street corners. 🙂

  25. Unsolicited proposals must be unique, provide value for money and contribute to the NSW Government’s strategic priorities.

    Wonder how proposing a casino in a city that already had an operating casino satisfied this criteria?

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:46 pm
    Dr John @ #3956 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 7:06 pm

    Wacky weather
    Melbourne currently 13 deg. hotter than Sydney & Brisbane.

    Should I say that I have been enjoying the fresh sea breeze this afternoon of a 23C evening?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    You may enjoy Balnarring picnic races where I’m going tomorrow.
    Max only 21C and no standout winner on form but I’ve got a number of trainers to ‘consult’ with on site.

  27. wranslide @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:58 pm
    “Griff. There is absolutely no connection between the cashless card and the latest drama with Perrottet and his choice of Nazi Uniform. It was an internal hit job associated with the dissatisfaction with Perrottet and other purported powerbrokers (who never seem to be able to carry a deal through). It was not concerned with the card.”

    I mentioned correlation, not causation. You say “absolutely no connection”. Proof please.

    “Griff, you do realise that when the cashless card was an actual proposal and could have gotten off the ground it was rejected by the Cabinet? Victor Dominello actually put a proposal up for implementation. The response of Perrottet was to shelve it and shelve him out of the portfolio. It could not get through the Government and still cant. Dominello was replaced in the portfolio by Perrottet with a National. And they oppose it 100%.”

    And now we have come full circle. The first time in history that a politician decided to change their mind due to events 😉

    “But dont let the facts get in the way of a good SMH generated campaign to try to save the NSW Libs.”

    You are entitled to your opinion, as am I. I see no facts, however. While I am surprised that this has been put on the table, I am keen for NSW Labor to respond. I wish they were under more pressure to do so.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:49 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3943 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 6:40 pm

    Interesting c@t has gone v.quiet on Sir Henry’s challenge to demonstrate Labor’s commitment to addressing problem gambling.

    When you’ve lost Michael Pascoe and Michael West its clear you have a problem with the Michael’s at the very least.
    Fuck off. I have simply not been sitting on my computer all afternoon like the sad individual you are, Liar von Trier.

    Oh and you can take your purity tests and shove them. I don’t answer to Michael Pascoe or Michael West. Nor do NSW Labor.
    ____________________
    Still c@t you won’t answer the challenge posed by Sir Henry P. Workers and peasants demand an answer. Clearly Sir Henry is on the money given your lack of an a answer to the obvious q -what is NSW Labor going to do about gambling?

  29. Lars Von Trier @ #3988 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 8:06 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 7:49 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3943 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 6:40 pm

    Interesting c@t has gone v.quiet on Sir Henry’s challenge to demonstrate Labor’s commitment to addressing problem gambling.

    When you’ve lost Michael Pascoe and Michael West its clear you have a problem with the Michael’s at the very least.
    Fuck off. I have simply not been sitting on my computer all afternoon like the sad individual you are, Liar von Trier.

    Oh and you can take your purity tests and shove them. I don’t answer to Michael Pascoe or Michael West. Nor do NSW Labor.
    ____________________
    Still c@t you won’t answer the challenge posed by Sir Henry P. Workers and peasants demand an answer. Clearly Sir Henry is on the money given your lack of an a answer to the obvious q -what is NSW Labor going to do about gambling?

    Google it. 😐

  30. Griff they might be under more pressure to respond if the Government was actually capable of delivering it. Which they are not.

    And that is really sad using the scourge of problem gambling and pokies to exploit for some political gain and for the clicks in the SMH when they know they could have done something and did not and will not do anything moving forward cause the partyroom does not support it.

  31. Dr Johnsays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    I know a previous lecturer at your old alma mater Swinburne whom did very well with his female students.
    _____________________
    Who cares. Do you really think anyone is that interested in who you continually claim to know.

  32. wranslide @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:08 pm
    “Griff they might be under more pressure to respond if the Government was actually capable of delivering it. Which they are not.

    And that is really sad using the scourge of problem gambling and pokies to exploit for some political gain and for the clicks in the SMH when they know they could have done something and did not and will not do anything moving forward cause the partyroom does not support it.”

    And the counterfactual is that the policy provoked a political hit job. Unless you have evidence that it didn’t of course 😉

  33. Taylormadesays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:10 pm
    Dr Johnsays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    I know a previous lecturer at your old alma mater Swinburne whom did very well with his female students.
    _____________________
    Who cares. Do you really think anyone is that interested in who you continually claim to know.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Still taking old posts out of context are you!
    Discover a personality.
    If I cared I could prescribe you medication in the short term.

  34. Aqualung says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    Unsolicited proposals must be unique, provide value for money and contribute to the NSW Government’s strategic priorities.

    The “unique” bit for Packer was…. International standard… bit like a 6 star hotel.. the criteria for last star being an ironing board in every room..

  35. wranslide @ Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:18 pm
    “Griff. Do you have evidence that it did. Of course.”

    For the third time, I say correlation, not causation. You are the one that is emphatically rejecting the alternate hypothesis. At which point one ought to provide evidence 😉

  36. This is mind blowing

    Human Rights Watch tells the West not to move factories from China to India!

    Why?

    Because HRW says Modi govt does not respect human rights!

    So China is a democracy for them, but India is not?

    Human rights lobby is just a puppet of China to oppose India

    https://m.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/dont-shift-supply-chains-from-china-to-india-hrw-to-west-469853

    BW and Other bloggers
    Do you think HRW is in the pocket of China and Xi?
    If not, don’t you think HRW deserves criticism for such atrocious statements.

  37. Sceptic @ #3994 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 8:23 pm

    Aqualung says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    Unsolicited proposals must be unique, provide value for money and contribute to the NSW Government’s strategic priorities.

    The “unique” bit for Packer was…. International standard… bit like a 6 star hotel.. the criteria for last star being an ironing board in every room..

    🙂

    I’m driving past the hideous oversized silver toilet bowl twice a day til the end of the school holidays. The glorious 311. Yech

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