Time for the monthly assembly of New South Wales state election news, starting with some none-too-timely opinion poll snippets before moving on to a meaty stew of preselection:
• Roy Morgan published a somewhat dated poll last week conducted at an unspecified time in November, encompassing a phone and online sample of 1234. It had Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 5%.
• On November 17, Max Maddison of The Australian reported that a statewide poll conducted for a “major industry group” that asked not to be identified had Labor on 40% of the primary vote, up from 33.3% at the 2019 election, and the Coalition at 37%, which entailed the Liberals holding steady from 32.0% while the Nationals tumbled from 9.6% to 4%. The Greens were on 9% and One Nation 6%, respectively compared with 9.6% and 1.1% (from a small number of seats contested in One Nation’s case). Chris Minns had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, while Domonic Perrottet was on 39% and 47%. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1000 from November 8 to 10.
• RedBridge has published polls conducted from September 23 to October 3 from seats with prospects for teal independents, from which the topline results suggested they were struggling to poll clear of Labor in Manly, North Shore, Pittwater and Wakehurst, but would be placed to take it right up to the Liberals at the final count if they could make it there. However, they also suggested independents were starting from too far behind in Lane Cove and the regional seat of Oxley. When it was put to respondents that the independents might bear comparison to Zali Steggall, Kylea Tink, Sophie Scamps and Caz Heise, they landed in first place on the primary vote in Manly and close to it everywhere else except Lane Cove.
Now to a thicket of Liberal preselection disputes, the recurring theme of which is gender balance:
• Against a backdrop of defeats for women preselection candidates (on which much more below), Liberal factional leaders spent the Christmas period on a messy re-engineering of the Legislative Council ticket that reduced three incumbents from what had previously been an all-male ticket, Matthew Mason-Cox, Lou Amato and Shayne Mallard, to unwinnable positions. Mason-Cox is the President of the Legislative Council and Mallard is one of the Liberals’ two gay or lesbian members, a point noted by skeptics of the deal as a win for diversity. The ticket will now be led by Natasha Maclaren-Jones, who is in fact presently in the middle of an eight-year term, which she will cut short in pursuit of a renewed mandate. Presumably the deal also had something to say about who would fill the vacancy to serve out the remaining four years of her existing term, although news reportage has been silent on this point. Also coming on to the ticket are Rachel Merton, a ministerial staffer to Maclaren-Jones, former head of government affairs at KPMG Australia and daughter of former Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, and Susan Carter, law lecturer at the University of Sydney. Merton and Carter are on the right, while Maclaren-Jones has reportedly shifted to the right from the centre-right, who are less than pleased with the whole arrangement. As brokered between Dominic Perrottet, conservative leader Damien Tudehope and moderate Matt Kean, the deal initially favoured former Deniliquin school teacher Jean Haynes over Merton, which also prompted a rebellion from the latter’s backers in the right. The deal’s second incarnation with Merton replacing Haynes won the required support from the state executive with help from an intervention by Peter Dutton.
• Not countenanced by the factions in their negotiations over the Legislative Council ticket was Melanie Gibbons, who was defeated for preselection in her lower house seat of Holsworthy last month by Tina Ayyad, former Liverpool deputy mayor and wife of current mayor Ned Mannou. Gibbons was persuaded not to pursue designs on the seat of Hughes at the May federal election in part with an offer of a cabinet position from Dominic Perrottet, who feared the party might lose Holsworthy in her absence. However, his backing proved insufficient to save her career via a seat in the upper house.
• The Liberal candidate for the northern beaches seat of Pittwater, which will be vacated with the retirement of senior minister Rob Stokes, will be Rory Amon, a moderate-aligned family lawyer and Northern Beaches councillor. Amon emerged as the only candidate after two women fell by the wayside: the aforementioned Natasha Maclaren-Jones, who withdrew from her bid to move to the seat from the upper house after recognising she did not have the numbers to defeat Amon, and Claire Longley, EY consultant and daughter of former member Jim Longley, who had not consistently been a financial party member for the required period and failed to win an exemption. Matt Kean was censured by the local branch after calling on party leaders to have a say over the preselection rather than it being left to the “old, out of touch, misogynist men” of the local membership. The party hierarchy’s concern that the seat might go the way of Warringah, Wentworth, North Sydney and Mackellar in the absence of a female candidate were underscored by a reported an email from Amon to state party president Maria Kovacic in which he denounced internal polling showing him with too low a primary vote to retain the seat as “push polling”. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reported Amon rejected an offer from moderates to exchange places with upper house MP and Metropolitan Roads Minister Natalie Ward. Amon faces opposition from independent Jacqui Scruby, an environmental lawyer and climate change business advisor who has the backing of Climate 200.
• Natalie Ward also came up empty-handed in her bid to succeed the retiring Jonathan O’Dea in Davidson in late November, despite backing from Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean. Ward was defeated in the preselection ballot by Matt Cross, head of government relations at the George Institute for Global Health and former staffer to Mike Baird and Barry O’Farrell, by 95 votes to 85. The Sydney Morning Herald reported Cross had won favour by pushing for small-scale nuclear reactors in every community, although he is factionally aligned with the moderates. Kean said he was “devastated” at Ward’s defeat and called Cross’s reactor plan a “fantasy”.
• The Liberal preselection for Parramatta made headlines after nominee Tanya Raffoul, chief-of-staff to Transport Minister David Elliott, claimed party members had told her she should “settle down and have children” and was “too assertive” to be a member of parliament. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reported that Raffoul faced “several right-wing candidates”, whose faction dominated the local branches, the front-runner among whom would appear to be lawyer Katie Mullens.
• In Riverstone, to be vacated with the retirement of Kevin Conolly, the Liberal preselection was won by Mohit Kumar, who holds a management position at Macquarie Bank, ahead of female rival Reena Jethi, The Hills Shire councillor and former teacher, by 98 votes to 68.
• The failure of women to win preselection for the Liberals stands in contrast to the Nationals, who have lately endorsed local mayor Peta Pinson to take on Leslie Williams in Port Macquarie after her defection from the Nationals to the Liberals; former Country Women’s Association president Annette Turner in Barwon and Edward River mayor Peta Betts in Murray, whose respective members Roy Butler and Helen Dalton have quit Shooters Fishers and Farmers to sit as independents (more on that below); Tanya Thompson, electorate officer to outgoing member Stephen Bromhead, in Myall Lakes; and former Snowy Valleys councillor Adrianna Benjamin in Wagga Wagga, held by independent Joe McGirr. Lachlan Leeming of the Daily Telegraph reported last week that the Nationals were warning the Liberals off running in Wagga Wagga, arguing the party’s brand remains damaged locally by the Daryl Maguire affair.
Further on the Coalition preselection front:
• The preselection for the safe Liberal seat of Castle Hill has developed into a saga to rival the party’s damaging multi-electorate deadlock ahead of the federal election. The incumbent, Transport Minister David Elliott, announced his intention to retire in October after recognising he could not retain preselection after the redistribution transferred right-controlled branches into the seat. That appeared to leave the way open for the right-backed Noel McCoy, Norton Rose Fulbright partner and former ministerial adviser. However, the party’s candidate vetting committee has blocked McCoy’s nomination over his opposition to abortion and the Berejiklian government’s COVID lockdowns, despite the committee’s ambit ostensibly being limited to probity issues. The party administration reacted by scrapping the preselection process altogether, also locking out rival conservative contender Rajiv Chaudhri, Spicy Bean Cafe founder and director of domestic violence charity the Lisa Harnum Foundation, who was deemed to have broken party rules over the use of promotional material. This could potentially open the door for Elliott to stay on, notwithstanding that he has delivered his valedictory speech, but he remains encumbered by the local dominance of the right and his own alignment with the centre-right. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that another contender is Mark Hodges, The Hills Shire deputy mayor.
• The Liberal preselection for Vaucluse was won by Kellie Sloane, former television reporter, ahead of Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor, and Roanne Knox, former management consultant and founder of a teen fashion label.
• Other endorsed Liberal candidates include Jordan Lane, the 28-year-old mayor of Ryde, to succeed retiring Liberal member Victor Dominello in Ryde; Kylie von Muenster, speech pathologist and law firm office manager, in Labor-held marginal Coogee; and former test cricket bowler Nathan Bracken, who earlier ran as an independent in Dobell at the 2013 election and for Central Coast Council in 2017, in Labor-held The Entrance.
Other preselection news:
• Labor’s recent candidates include Terry Campese, former captain of NRL club the Canberra Raiders and state-of-origin representative, to run in Monaro against Nichole Overall, who retained John Barilaro’s old seat for the Nationals at a by-election in February, and Canada Bay councillor Julia Little in Drummoyne, where John Sidoti has abandoned notions of running as an independent after being forced out of the Liberal Party following an adverse ruling from ICAC. However, Labor’s initial nominee for Ryde, local doctor Francisco Valencia, withdrew earlier this month after an apprehended violence order was sought against him over an alleged domestic incident.
• Orange MP Phil Donato and Barwon MP Roy Butler have quit Shooters Fishers and Farmers, leaving the party with none of the three lower house seats it won in 2019. This follows Donato’s and Butler’s failure, along with upper house member Mark Banasiak, to have a new executive committee replace the one dominated by supporters of the party’s longest serving parliamentarian, Robert Borsak. The trio had called on Borsak to resign after he said during in parliamentary debate that he “should have got up and clocked” Helen Dalton, who won Murray for the party in 2022 and resigned from it in March.
• In the teal independent realm, North Sydney’s Independent has endorsed candidates for North Shore and Lane Cove. They are, respectively, Helen Conway, former corporate lawyer and head of the Workplace Gender Equality Agency, and Victoria Davidson, who runs a podiatry business with her husband, to run in Lane Cove against senior front-bencher Anthony Roberts, who may be regretting his decision to brandish a lump of coal in parliament in 2017. Manly candidate Joeline Hackman, founder of the Northern Beaches War on Waste community group, has official backing from Climate 200, as does the aforementioned Jacqui Scruby in Pittwater. Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan has been rated “likely” to win the endorsement of community group Wakehurst’s Independent by one media source, and described as “favourite at unbackable odds” to win the seat if he runs by another.
• Former Liberal official and IT businessman Matthew Camenzuli has formed Choice 200 to fund “true-blue” independents to take on senior Liberals. Camenzuli says the candidates will campaign on “cost of living, housing and energy security”, although his main beef is plainly with a Liberal Party preselection process that prompted him to take legal action against the party amid its preselection stand-off ahead of the federal election, in which senior figures including Scott Morrison took over the process to protect incumbents from preselection challenges.
137 comments on “New South Wales election minus three months”
The NSW election to be held on the 25th March has been all but decided by the Liberal party and its leader Mr Perrottet.
The RSL clubs have stated that they will oppose the introduction of the cashless gambling card.
Tasmania has already provided a case study at the election before the last one.
Every town and suburb across NSW that depends on the clubs for money for sport, particularly youth sport will be encouraged to oppose the cashless card.
Every town in NSW depends on the services that clubs provide.
Most of the population know nothing about the proceeds of crime being laundered but they know who provides the laundry for sporting teams, a venue for any manner of things, food and part time employment for youth.
Most of the population have no knowledge of gambling problems and that includes many who definitely have a gambling problem.
The clubs will demonise Perrottet.
And that’s before the huge poker machine owning hotel cartel begin their campaign to prevent any change to their revenue stream.
Mr Minns will be well advised to steer clear of the gambling issue.
As the polling evolves the liberals will splinter on this issue.
The Nationals will outright oppose any changes.
The liberals will be decimated by the voters at the election.
Most on PB have no knowledge of gambling in NSW before TABs, mechanical poker machines, illegal casinos and SP bookies in every pub. Cash was the “King’.
The result of the next election is already known. The only loser will be the liberal party.
On a more responsible note, the cashless gambling card will hardly leave a scratch on the shiny red exterior of gambling in NSW.
Well the old tripodi machine mps lalich and Zangari are being pushed out by Minns still have to find a candadate is Tony blesedale realy going to be labors candadate in riverstone he would be a bad choice he does not represent the ward including riverstone on black town cowncil must be like mckeown must have factional backing
Goll.i.agree with.your expected result but.for different.reasons I expected an uneven. 6% swing. To
Labor. Would your projected. Clubs campaign be on top.of.this? Taking.you.post as correct.why.are clubs nsw opposed to the cashless card?
goll at 9.05 am
NSW is not as small an electorate as Tassie, where the money from the NSW-based owners of the pokie licence proved important. Perrottet will most likely lose because he was on the nose well before the pokie issue arose. His negative stat rating is a millstone. A factor with a bigger impact than the pokies issue is the Camenzuli rebellion. It could drop the Lib vote below Labor in several seats; enough to lose with Optional Preferential.
High St on Fri at 1.22 pm
Kevin Bonham’s main post on federal drag from 2020 is at:
I expect Dr Bonham would say that he doesn’t include hangover drags in his definition.
However, if you look at the graph at this link then your point seems to be illustrated.
There is another factor. Federal Labor polling since June has been a minimum of 1.5% above the May 21 vote, meaning Labor has significant support from some people who had not shifted to it federally by the election.
It is unlikely that such people will be alienated enough from federal Labor by March to favour the NSW Libs. Hence, a current federal drag is unlikely in NSW in March, just as it did not occur in Victoria in November.
Another factor that depressed the Lib vote in NSW in May 2022 was organisational drag, or candidate delay. That may exist in March 2023, even if not to the same degree.
There are various factors that will combine to create very big headwinds for Perrottet.
Not shore if Camensuli has anownsed any candadates it seems like a protest as his allie Nowel Mccoy was blocked from running in carsillhill camensuli is part of the old david clarke hard religis right which has robyn preston tania davies and former sen feiravanti wells
TOP 20 CLUBS (by number of machines)
Bankstown Sports Club, Bankstown – 745
Rooty Hill RSL Club, Rooty Hill – 710
Canterbury League Club, Belmore – 699
Penrith Rugby League Club, Penrith – 625
Mt Pritchard & District Community Club (Trading as Mounties), Mount Pritchard – 615
Twin Towns Services Club, Tweed Heads – 596
Wentworthville Leagues Club, Wentworthville – 545
Western Suburbs Newcastle Leagues Club, New Lambton – 541
Revesby Workers‘ Club, Revesby – 525
Campbelltown Catholic Club, Campbelltown – 519
Dee Why RSL Club, Dee Why – 488
Parramatta Leagues Club, Parramatta – 473
Cabra-Vale Ex-Active Servicemen’s Club, Canley Vale – 450
Commercial Club (Albury), Albury – 450
Dooleys Lidcombe Catholic Club, Lidcombe – 448
Western Suburbs League Club (Campbelltown), Leumeah – 448
St Marys Rugby League Club, North St Marys – 445
Liverpool Catholic Club, Prestons – 435
Workers Blacktown, Blacktown – 430
Sutherland District Trade Union Club, Gymea – 430
Each machines generates approximately 35,000 pa gross profit. (declared)
There are approximately 86,ooo poker machines in NSW.
The hotel poker machines return double the amount that clubs do at least.
Small clubs exist on the profit from poker machines.
The larger clubs index the wages of the executives to poker machine profits.
Smaller hotels largely no longer exist with either with or without a small number of poker machines.
The cash economy is unmeasurable.
The illegal cash economy is even more difficult to measure.
NSW has a history of cash and no amount of legislative changes have ” put a dent in the cash economy”
The Nationals hate the idea and the National voters won’t hear of a threat to their “country clubs’.
The ‘”tradies”, generally a lover of the liberal party, won’t hear of any changes.
Clubs NSW realise that money equals power.
Money corrupts and everything is now judged by money and the power it brings.
The liberals across Australia are on a downer.
Morrison and co have shown themselves to be a tsunami of a disaster.
I see no reason that NSW will be an exception to the trend.
Perottet is for the burden of parental duty, and probably has just as little control in that regard.
NSW home owners don’t like falling house prices. It’s their hobbie, it’s their measure of social status, it’s their repository of cash money, it’s their security and Perrottet will be blamed.
House prices falling puts the heebie-jeebies into borrowed money and bank managers.
House prices are regarded by the wealthy as better than gold.
goll at 9.01 pm
Correct, but you need to add an adjective: … mainland Australia. Lib primary votes in the last 3 Tassie elections have been: 51.2% (2014), 50.2% (2018) and 48.7% (2021). Even in Victoria the Labor primary was 37%.
Dr Bonham will have something to say about Perrottet’s large negative stat status by March. Not as bad as Colin Barnett in 2017, but he is getting there.
As they say in the classics, when the swing is on the seats will fall into place, partly from further up the pendulum. Queanbeyan isn’t exactly the speculation capital of NSW, but there will be quite a swing to Terry Campese.
The federral mpfoor edan monarow cristy mcbain has a strong personal vote now im sure she will be used to help out campeze only problim with labor is they still have no candadates in the fairfield seats paramatta and riverstone part of gladis apeel apart from the icac stuff is that she seemedlow key not wanting to make her self the story just geting on with the job relatible in a way like qld premier and albanese where is perrottit comes a ctros as a corear politician arogent and seems to reliy to much on spinn desbite gladis being a corear politician as well she had the likability factor perrottit lacks
The liberals poleing must be bad becaus perrottit pushed hard foor his land tax in stead of up front stamp duty which he eventualy wants to slug on evry one and faze out stamp duty but after it past the parliament he droped it after making a big deal he also seems to have gone quiet on the dam wall which is not reazinating with penrith and the pockies stunt plus the liberals failure to preselect candadates in many marjinal seats just three months before election
plus he government has mixed mesages on the invironment foor western sydney and in the reajons perrottit is saying he does not care abbout distruction of plants to increasehousing in penrith with the dam wall protending its about flood midergation i have not heard any person to interested in this ishue to change there vote and in the sity matt kean is going arround claiming to be a climate change leader theliberals are copying labors mistake in 2019 say two differnt mesages and hope the voters arnt smart enough to work it out
Tasmaniia is a different case to nsw it is the liberal strong hold only state morrison did well federally how ever the cashlis card would not get through the parliament the liberals need the nationals in order to form a government as they hardlyever get a majority on there own so with the nationals being aposed it will never happin plus elliot has to go he used to be chief lobeyist foor the hotels asosiation noticed hazard praised sidoti in his final speedch over concord hospital emagin if a labor mp praised a mp that icac found against alix smith would be out raged
The election campaign will be upon us before we know it. This election will be as interesting as 2022 federal imo!
Ned Mannoun is a mod Lib isn’t he? Liverpool LGA has some wealthy pockets and Lib areas such as Holsworthy so his election to Mayor isn’t that surprising. Western Sydney has been treated as a dumping ground by NSW Labor for its not so great candidates for far too long!
Aaron Newton. Labor has a candidate in Parra. Its been a poorly kept secret but its been announced now. Donna Davis.
will still have to wait foor riverstone and fairfield seats plus ride at the libers have quite a few paramatter carslehill labor still needs to find inbagaries creek
Newcastle Moderate last Thur at 9.40 pm
According to Dr Bonham’s Xmas day review:
“What is noticeable here is that the range of swings projected to produce a hung parliament is remarkably wide – any swing to Labor that isn’t very large appears a good chance to do it. But hung parliaments have a track record of not happening lately (fifteen state and federal majorities in a row, with twelve of the campaigns featuring various levels of media speculation about a hung parliament being likely.) So that still needs to be treated with caution.”
Also he says: “A simple average of [recent polling] is about 54-46 to Labor, which if repeated would only give Labor a close to even chance of a majority on my numbers. There was also, unfortunately, a mid-November report of a Nov 8-10 unnamed industry group poll by an unnamed pollster using unstated methods, which the Australian claimed to have been “leaked” (meaning that the sponsor gave the poll to them for free). This had the same primary vote lead for Labor (40-35) as the September Newspoll. This level of opaque poll reporting by The Australian is completely unsatisfactory and I see no reason why such behaviour should be allowed.”
Note that Dr Bonham regards Bega as nominal Liberal, when Labor will clearly retain, because the incumbent, Dr Holland, is very strong in the north of the electorate (where Constance was strongest) and has a good presence in the south, whereas the Liberal candidate (the current Bega Mayor) is a roughie from the very south of the electorate.
the labor still need a candadate in riverstone and fairfield aeria not sure whiy unions nsw would back perrottit today maybi there unhappy with minns
We are getting to the point where the only two organisations (aside from organised crime gangs) who don’t support cashless pokies are Clubs NSW and the NSW Labor Party.
Where do the nswnashanals stand its a government policy that some of the nsw ministers dont support
So are David Elliott’s comments against cashless pokies undermining Perrottet his first and only foray between now and March, or is he just getting started?
think hill be under mining him right up until election day i dont think they like each other i think he still has ambitions to go in to federal one day so he cant attack his factions leader hawke whois responsible so hill probaly go after perottit and kean
Yes the average 54/46 2pp suggests a 2pp swing of 6%. But the 2pp figures inflate the liberal vote due to the impact of opv. What those same opinion polls show is Labor outpolling the liberals in primary votes. This means that the opv bonus goes to Labor. That means the 6% swing is effectively more I expect labor to retain Bega. All sitting. Independents I expect to be relected including the 3 ex sff independents.. also it is highly probable that the greens are all elected re the ex major party independents I expect none to win.. it is unclear if any will contest a lower house seat.. maybe Mr Ward is most likely to recontest. I do not expect Labor to lose any seats.
Antony Green’s NSW Election Pendulum.
The release of this pendulum is sober reading for ALP members and supporters, alike.
In a 93-member chamber, the ALP must gain nine seats in order to form government.
Ten are required to have a house majority and to hold the Speakership.
To achieve this result, it is going to be tough.
Recent polling suggests a 4-6% swing to the ALP.
4%, if uniform could deliver the following seats: East Hills, Penrith & Goulburn.
Upper Hunter & Willoughby fall within this margin, but it would be highly unlikely that they would fall to the ALP. They may be vulnerable to an independent, as Willoughby demonstrated in the 2022 By-election.
6%, if uniform could deliver the following seats: Tweed (5%), (Winston Hills (5.1%) & Holsworth (6%).
Just above 6% are: Riverstone (6.2%), Parramatta (6.5%) & Oatley (6.8%).
In my analysis the winnable seat tally sits at six, with ALP holding 44 seats and the LNP 40 seats.
Government could be formed with 44 seats but would require the support of the Greens and progressive independents in order to form a working majority.
In order to put a Spaniard into the works the fate of the three Hunters & Gatherers members could be interesting, as well as the independent in Wagga Wagga. If these seats return to their LNP base it could leave the ALP & LNP at 44 seats each.
However, in such a scenario, I would consider that the ALP would be better placed to form government with Green support and the fact that the members for Sydney & Lake Macquarie represent traditional Labor electorates. An Independent Speaker could resolve some of these issues.
A uniform swing of 7.3% would resolve most of the above issues.
As stated, an ALP government is do-able but will require a great campaign and strategic voting strategies, where community independents are contesting LNP seats.
Macca you cannot use the pendulum the same way as you do for seats where a full listing of preferences is requires. Opv instructions you must number one square.. you may vote for other candidates if you chose. This allows votes to exhaust. In 2011 2015 and 2019. The liberals outpolled Labor on first preferences. This varied from seat to seat but it meant Labor needed to obtain preferences exhausting does not help. An example is East Hills 2019 libs outpolled alp by 2% and labor got back 1.5%.. thus a loss even though a pool of 12% left of centre votes. Existed. Now run those exact sums with Labor polling even with the libs or outpolling the libs. Labor on a 1% primary vote swing wins by 1.5% to 2%. This is the impact of opv. There is another factor here Labor and the Greens can direct their preferences. No other party can manage that except maybe the libs and Nats in Port Macquarie. If Labor adopts a put the coalition last strategy. Then they can direct to teals and independents including the ex sff independents. This enhances their chances in seats Labor cannot win.
Look at each seat under say 9% and you see the impact of the opv bonus. This means the traditional pendant does not apply. Eg I think Wakehurst shows 2pp say 70% but opv bonus is 10%
Many new and some not so new issues pertinent to the March 25 NSW election have been highlighted by the media and elsewhere for obvious reasons.
A gaming card proposal followed by transport announcements, not yet delivered, the Royal commission and its delayed findings regarding Gladys, and now the unexpected, yet expected death of Pell.
Contract negotiations for Mitchell Moses at Parramatta, the adventures of Harry and Meghan versus the Royals or Margot Robbie’s outfit at the Golden Globes are examples of lesser issues but very important for some voters.
I wonder if there is some polling happening to enlighten the voters of NSW as to the “feeling” for the outcome of the election.
The horizons seems clouded if the tabloids and affiliates are to be believed with the chances of the “new age” candidates a bit unknown.
Are the overwhelming cohort of disinterested voters keeping their powder dry for the election week.
Perhaps divine intervention through the medium of the now deceased priest is at work.
Then again, voters are having a holiday, some food and drink and possibly aren’t aware of much more than credit cards and housing repayments.
The NSW Greens have been very silent since Shoebridge went federal. Doesn’t help them them that they refuse to have a leader. Voters would struggle naming a single state NSW Greens MP.
it is not very smart the nsw greens not having a leader most would have thought david shoebridge was leader at least the victorian greens had a profile before there state elections the nsw greens seem quiet
Mick Quinlivan @ 10.04am Monday
Thanks, Mick, for your response to my post regarding the NSW State Election Pendulum.
I agree, to maximise the result in their favour, Labor should adopt a put the LNP candidate, last strategy.
Where full preferential voting is required, my practice is always to put the LNP candidate last. No matter how crazy or abhorrent, One Nation or any of the fringe parties may be, the reality is that it is only the ALP or the LNP will form government.
The LNP at the past three NSW elections have successfully encouraged their supporters to Vote 1, only.
Personally, I would favour this practice being adopted across all electorates by the ALP but advising those people, like me, who number every square to put the LNP candidates, last.
I’ll concede that polling & electoral pendulums are an in-exact science but are a useful, general guide to the political contest. I’ll still stand by my analysis that the ALP needs a swing of up to 7.5%, in critical seats, to form a majority government.
Thanks mate. Look at some of my posts on Tally room.
I have tried to estimate the impact of the opv bonus. My way is rough but as good as any. I add liberal plus right say onp Christian democrats etc. Get a total right figure. I then add alp.plus greens ajp kso to get a left figure. In each case I assume no leakage.
So say total left 48
Total right 52
Compare this to the actual
Two party preferred
Say that is 56/44 liberal then the opv bonus 4% lib
Thus the stated 2pp way well over state the swing required.
Any advantage the liberals believed that had with the two party swing needed and the used of opv to maintain the government benches for the LNP is being quickly eroded as each day unfolds and reveals more shooting damage to their own feet and the feet of their colleagues.
Perrottet has probably made the biggest political mistake possible by poking the gambling/gaming industry in the eye. This was never going to end well.
Perrottet has positioned himself together with the most burdensome handicaps available by entering an election in the rum state by “threatening to control the rum” but also by not having the full support of the “liberal rum corp” in imposing some control.
At the rate Perrottet is moving backwards, it would be good advice to ready the escape boat in an attempt to reach Batavia (or todays equivalent) before the Ides of March.
Some post New Year polling may provide some clearer vision.
Mick @ 8.00am.
Thanks, I’ll have to cross over to the Tally room and check out your postings, there.
This election is shaping up to be one of the most complex and interesting polls, for a variety of reasons, for a long time.
The standard state issues seem to have been thrown on their heads.
I will be keenly following the results in Wagga and the Hunters & Gatherers’ seats.
If they flip back to the LNP – then it could mean another four years of this inept administration.
it is interesting that evry thing so far perrotttit has atempted to pull of a winn has failed so far desbite some poasters thinking the cashlis pockies stunt is somehow a brilliant wedge foor labor hardly any body caires and cabenit does not back it the floods and stamp duty have not got him any suport
Sportsbet are offering $3.50 on the ALP being able to form a minority govt and $1.95 on forming a majority govt (47+ seats).
Thought I would place a decent bet at $3.50. But they imposed a bet limit of $50 on me!! What wimps!
is gambling realy a top nsw ishue i dont think so this is a campaign ran buy the media no person i know cares about it the same with the campaign to save frydenberg now croger who never got a seat in parliament thinks the liberals should go back to abbott who had a 30 persent swing to him in 2019 and has been a corear politician for 30 years heard frendley jordies talks about labor corear politicians
there is also a lot on liberal side tony abott perottit plus after the hype from alix smith the imbatled perottits cabenit is devided over gambling what will tim costellow say when the liberals just copy minns