As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Socrates, 1917 revolution didnt happen because of a revolt at the front – but because of bread riots in Petrograd. It was when the elite units refused to fire on the demonstrators in Petrograd that it was clear the gig was up.
Beevor’s thesis is civil war was essential to the revolutions success because it enabled the true defeat of the White monarchist forces.
Importantly controlling UKR isnt just a Putin obsession but a core belief of the Russian elite. As a number of commentators have said the fall of Putin isnt likely to see him replaced with a pleasant west friendly democrat in disguise.
If Artillery resupply to Ukraine and Russia is your thing, this one’s for you:
https://youtu.be/deK98IeTjfY
The defeat has to be of Russia.
Lars
“ Agree that Socrates. Who wins a war of attrition then – the stronger economy / industrial power?”
Good question. I have been watching a series of youtube videos by an Australian defense economist calling himself “Perun” who looks at this in some detail. For example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4
Overall if the west sticks with Ukraine, Russia will lose the battle of attrition. In fact even if just eastern Europe sticks with Ukraine, Russia will lose unless China intervenes. But if it is Russia alone vs Ukraine alone it will be a long stalemate. If it was Russia with Chinese support vs Ukraine alone, then Russia would win.
Hence all the Russian propaganda to split off western support!
Socrates at 10.10 pm
Yes, but one point is different, even if the implications aren’t clear: communications.
Captured Russian troops still apparently had their mobile phones. Presumably they can’t easily access the internet before capture to confirm how badly the war is going.
There was not much desertion from the front in 1917 before the February revolution, but the conditions for Russian soldiers then were qualitatively worse than today.
Lars 10.14
Spoiler alert! I haven’t read Beevor that far yet 🙂
I have read the same view of Putin’s likely successor in multiple sources.
The Australian cotton industry employs less than 0.1% of the Australian workforce. Its environmental footprint is enormous, involving vast quantities of seriously nasty insecticides, and the sequestering of an inordinately high proportion of the normal river flows in the upper Darling River system. It is almost 100% overseas owned, and pays fuck all tax because of spurious transfer pricing. There is no doubt Australia would be better off without it.
Lars
Did you ever come across a Terrigal operative called Peter Bentley?
Happy New Year all.
Best wishes for everyone
William thanks for providing the best blog site I’ve ever seen.
Mostly lurking these days.
Heard this powerful song last night from a long time ago on ABC overnight during the long drive home from work in the wee hours of this morning.
Couldn’t help thinking how relevant it is to today.
https://jilldennison.com/2020/01/04/%E2%99%AB-eve-of-destruction-over-and-over-and-over-again-my-friend-%E2%99%AB/
No dont know Peter Bentley OC.
He ran the McKell Institute OC
Thanks for the thoughtful comments. Night all.
Nath wrote, “Re the DLP…. Santamaria’s vision of Australia was of an agrarian society. Small farms, small minds, big churches.”
My point exactly. Boerwar is living Bobby Sanatmaria’s dream. His hope is to transform the ALP into his ideal of the DLP, hence my comment. I’ve always been onto him.
Now a partner at KPMG – always seemed to be destined for great things – but seems to have left out the section where he spends time in a house with multi-member seats
yabba at 10.25 pm
An ecologist at Sydney Uni named Francisco Sanchez-Bayo is an expert on the destruction of nature by the widespread use of systemic insecticides. He was interviewed on a TV program called Acceleration that was repeated in the past week.
If people want to seriously focus on a real threat to Australian security, not on phobias about a
completely unrealistic scenario of a supposed Chinese invasion, the threat from insecticides is a worrying danger to understand.
Not quite sure what that is a reference to OC.
Clem I dont think senior ALP powerbrokers (at lease one of whom posts on here) will allow boer to get away with his nefarious schemes.
LVT. Yes, they are very perceptive. Clearly got the Chinese worked out and Mr Fitzgerald. Boerwar and his DLP push stands no chance against their powers
Wranslide, most of the rising stars of Terrigal (who were party officers and not facing criminal charges) spent some time in parliament/government before going into business.
More commonly an upper house as many were unelectable in single member seats.
Bemtley went straight to business
“I agree it is a big “if” Ukraine getting to the Sea of Azov. The Russians would be mad not to have it heavily defended. I am only saying it would be decisive if they did as imacca suggested. ”
Huge if.
Should the Ukrainian’s launch an offensive in the direction of the Sea of Azov…… all taken with all i think towards Melitopol rather than Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. Means it will launch from Zaphoriza so that the Main Ukrainian forces don’t have to cross the Dnipro.
The Russians are not that stupid that they haven’t been able to see that for months. Fortification of Melitopol, Tokmak has been ongoing. A Ukrainian advance to Melitopol will mean a big salient into Russian occupied territory that the Russians will try and pinch off. I think the Ukrainians will only be able to hold that if they can disrupt any movement of Russian forces from Kherson against their right flank and put most of their effort into refusing their left flank on the way to Melitopol.
Risky, but if they pull it off, decisive. Ok, bit of a wanky sounding analysis. But, something like it could happen. ??
imacca at 11.50 pm
There might be a feint or two elsewhere in E beforehand, but that would be the shortest way for Ukraine to end the Russian land bridge to Crimea.
Note there is a lake between Melitopol and the Azov sea, so they need to capture Melitopol and hold it. Ukrainians could well go W before going S, to regain control of the nuclear plant first. That remains the biggest risk of any escalation.
Assuming there will be little rotation of Russian troops, the best time for the next Ukrainian counter-offensive would be toward the end of winter, i.e. around the anniversary of war.
Re Boerwar and Environment
Even if Robert Hill has been the best Australian Environment Minister (which is disputed, especially with reference to the elephant of global warming), he pales into insignificance when compared to the reappointed Brazilian Minister Marina Silva.
New thread.
Nath,
It wasn’t a case of the Eucalypts destroying anything – it was a case of climate change which caused the Australian continent to mostly, dry out leading to the retreat of much of the Gondwanan rainforests to the residual, wet areas which remained.
Cronus @ 8.48pm
Totally agree with your prognosis of the Ukraine / Russia situation.
Putin doesn’t consider his troops, particularly the conscripts, as citizens – in his Russian Imperial World view – he considers them to be serfs and peasants, whose only use is to fulfill the requirements of the state, irrespective of the social costs or the horrendous loss of life.
Socrates,
I listen to Perun on YouTube as well. He does good stuff. His vid on ‘How Corruption Destroys Armies′ regarding the Russian Armed Forces is brilliant.
I also watch on Youtube:
Operator Starskey
Anna From Ukraine
Denys Davydav
TVP – Poland’s public TV station and especially Rock Rackon whose occasional dry humour is good.
Joe Blogs.
Esysman is an excellent youtube channel on luxury yachts, including which ones are being arrested and seized under the sanctions of Russia. The amounts of money spent on these multimillion dolar vessels is obscene. It costs about $1mill a month to run one of those yachts. The owners pay management companies to look after them, and run them.
I suppose they do create emploment, lots of it really. The whole industry is labour-intensive but is sickening to see when such luxury is ( allegedly ) paid for from extorting the people’s taxes or by corrupt business and government.
There is one USA veteran′s channel who always starts his vid with: ‘Welcome my friends. It is day 310 (or whatever) of Russia′s disastrous three day invasion of Ukraine.’