Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Steelydan says:

    It was a stuff up from start to finish but the majority had legitimate debts. That is one of the worst aspects of the whole fiasco millions and millions lost to defrauders because of a botched scheme, then to top it off they got a Robodebt stuff up payment, many laughed all the way to the bank. But no you will keep the faith…no one ripped off Centrelink not a single one the Robodebt system only caught out innocent people only. This is the sort of thinking that always destroys the ALP in the end. There has been no boats for so long lets……..

    It is this sort of shit that cost people their lives and the budget a billion dollars. You guys really should take a long hard look at yourself instead of doubling down on bullshit.

  2. [‘Clem Jones, then lord mayor of Brisbane, sat on the Australian Cricket Board opposite Bradman in the 1960s and 1970s, and in 2007 offered the following description of Australia’s greatest ever cricketer.

    “Bradman was quite right-wing,” Jones said in Inside Story, Cricket Australia’s official history. “He was the best chairman of any organisation I’ve had anything to do with, absolutely outstanding. But he was a bigoted, right-wing politician. People say he wasn’t political: he was, and very much so.”

    The letter was an unexpected discovery for Archer when she was searching through Fraser’s papers at the National Archives in Canberra while writing a book on the history of the term “dole bludger”. She found Bradman’s advice to Fraser among other, similar letters from the likes of Robert Holmes a Court and Lang Hancock.’]

    Such a shame about that second ball duck in the Ashes series in ’48, only needing four runs to give him an average of 100 – no it wasn’t.

  3. Robodebt was only ever going to recoup about a billion dollars per annum, assuming that the cost-benefit calculations were accurate (they probably weren’t). Pretty small beer in the context of the Federal Budget. There is much lower-handing fruit in tax rorts, unnecessary subsidies, waste, mismanagement.

    But attacking any of those would upset some powerful and well funded vested interests, including a lot of coalition mates.

  4. For context re. post on Bradman:

    [‘Sir Donald Bradman personally intervened at the most explosive juncture of Australian political history, stridently advising then new prime minister Malcolm Fraser on how to dismantle the platform of his predecessor Gough Whitlam.

    A letter has emerged for the first time, showing how Bradman, writing just two days after the political turmoil of the 1975 dismissal election, bluntly instructed Fraser to take a stand against socialism, unions, the media and Whitlam’s legacy.’] -SMH

  5. Ven and Sprocket

    Thanks for the link to he interesting article about energy market modelling.

    That sort of detailed modelling of markets and networks is what I originally did in transport. There has been a chronic lack of such a quantified model of freight flows, including fossil fuels, in Australia for my entire career. We just have to assume the system works.

    We do not require industry to give the data required to build such a model, and they do not volunteer it. USA and European countries collect it automatically.

    Combined with our lack of adequate fuel storage reserves, Australia could be quite vulnerable to a world oil crisis. Nobody knows how vulnerable, or which states might suffer worst.

  6. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 9:35 am
    Happy Saturnalia bludgers: although arguably that Roman festival traditionally ended a couple of days ago. On the other hand the festival is also associated with Dies Natalis Solis Invicta – the Birthday of the Unconquerable Sun – 25 December. The cult of Sol Invictus was very popular with large sections of the imperial Roman Army in the 3rd century CE, so linking it with a Christian festival – our xmas – was one way to ease pagans into the new state religion in the following century. So there is that.

    So, anyways, happy festivus everyone.

    Yesterday we went to Bath, where I saw Roman baths built at the start of first millenium by Romans.
    Bath was called Aquae Sulis
    That is where I heard for the time that Sun was also called ‘Sol’. There was archway where Sol and Luna (Moon) were depicted.
    Roman baths were built because that place has hot springs.

    We also went to Jane Austen centre. It was located there because Jane Austen lived there for some time.

    Then I watched the buildings around Bath CBD. I was blown away by the architecture. I did not expect those kind of buildings in one of the less familiar towns. It is about 50 kms from Bristol City.,_Somerset

  7. Mavis

    From the memoirs of some of Bradman’s teammates years ago as they were close to passing on, they respected his skill but few liked him. His relationship with his own son is telling too.

  8. Robodebt was just a tax on low and middle income earners. Their is literally no reason for the government to recover money from people this way.

  9. SD: “majority had legitimate debts.”

    If they had legitimate debts, they could have been recovered without illegal behaviour.

    Re: Bradman; By most accounts he was a prick. Could hit a cricket ball especially well though.

  10. I will just reiterate my shout out to Mr Bowe from earlier in the day, for putting up with me for another year. Thank you, and I hope you had a Merry Xmas and will have a Happy New Year. 🙂

  11. I think I will take a break for the rest of the week from compiling the Dawn Patrol. We have a number of family visitors staying with us.
    Anyway, it will be a slow news week.

  12. Socratessays:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 9:10 pm

    From the memoirs of some of Bradman’s teammates years ago as they were close to passing on, they respected his skill but few liked him. His relationship with his own son is telling too.

    Bill O’Reilly(one of the Australia’s greatest spinners), who played when Bradman was captain, was very forthright in his dislike of Bradman.

  13. I had a workmate whom later in life became the boss of St Vincent de Paul.
    I once asked him what was the best donation he considered Vinnies got in his time.
    An anonymous donor inter alia mistakenly left in a box at the street front door of the Hampton vinnies a mint condition autograph album with one page entry – Don Bradmans and all the Invincibles autographs.

  14. As a lad, when a neighbour went O/S – particularly continental Europe – after their return there was usually an invitation to their place for a slide night, fondue, and, (for adults only), a cheap, warmish Moselle. I loved the old days, when nothing was instant, even telegrams required the PMG to deliver them, and they invariably brought bad news.

  15. Interesting is the finding of a letter from Bradman to Fraser aka 1975

    Unsurprising is the content (at least to some)

    Bradman was a very prominent Stockbroker in Adelaide, a creature of privilege and the corridors of power including the elitist Adelaide Club

    He presided over the Board of Control, which governed cricket, with an iron fist – appointing to the Board to ensure his control (and for the interest of BK on this site, a couple of Umpires connected with the Prospect District Cricket Club – and the story of the time was that the Umpire who was not employed by the EW&S in a senior position was always attempting to surpass the influence of the one who was – despite what seemed a friendship between the 2, so Mel and Col to give further information to BK who may know the surnames – and if my Grandparent’s experienced any disruption to water supply Mel’s phone instantly rang!)

    I was only a boy at primary school at the time, and in secondary school when Mel, at Bradman’s directive, saw Sobers come to Adelaide for 3 seasons)

    If Bradman said jump, which he did, it was a matter of how high Sir

    Then came the change, initiated by Favell and followed by Chappell who ran up against Bradman in regards the remuneration of players, Bradman’s response that a pay increase could not be afforded so close the door on your way out

    Elitism in the upper echelons of Adelaide society was what it was – then came Dunstan

    And Chappelli dropping his whites and baring his backside to the Member’s Stand which accommodated ……….

    The Empire was restless and striking back

    And then also came World Series Cricket, remunerating players as it did – and attracting players from all Nations (and in this mix was South Africa and apartheid)

    Bradman was a constant

    There was finally a resolution between Bradman and Packer (because WSC has the premier players and the coverage)

    Mind you, the legacy of Bradman remains at Cricket Australia

    Look at the position of Warner in regard player remuneration just a couple of years ago, Warner on behalf of the players successful

    Don Bradman was establishment personified – and, accordingly, hard right with his elitism and position of privilege over society

    That he walked to work along Grenfell Street acknowledging those who acknowledged him set a tone – but one of the people he was not

    He was revered – and that was his expectation

    The letter to Fraser in 1975 is of no surprise if you were in a position to initially listen then observe

  16. BK: “I think I will take a break for the rest of the week from compiling the Dawn Patrol. ”

    It will be that much more enjoyable when it returns! Thanks so much for your effort.

  17. Cat at 8.48 pm

    Yes, that is a factor, but there are others. The Liberal candidate is Russell Fitzpatrick, the Mayor of Bega Valley Council, who is a banker from Pambula near Merimbula who once ran a hotel in Gundagai and has been on the Council for yonks. He is not the most smooth-talking type of candidate.

    On 24 November, a week or so before being announced as the Liberal candidate, he said this, interviewed on local ABC radio:

    “I don’t believe in the team blue or team red. I’d just like to have a crack.”


    The journalist (she is not identified on that page but she is experienced and very well informed) made the observation:

    “Mr Fitzpatrick might be known in the Bega Valley but is basically an unknown in the north of the electorate.”

    That is a large part of the Liberals’ problem in Bega. The incumbent, Dr Holland, is now well known in both ends of the electorate (Batemans Bay and Moruya, as well as Bega). He got very large swings in the northern part, and also large swings in the southern part (e.g. 9% in Bega and over 6% in Eden). He will be very keen to consolidate.

    This is an electorate where the good standing of the federal Labor government could have a significant effect. Polling for federal Labor is significantly higher than what was achieved on 21 May. Some voters in this state electorate, especially in the northern part, would have voted for Dr Holland in the by-election, then voted for Constance in the federal seat of Gilmore, partly because he was their previous state member. Many of those voters will be partly swayed by what federal Labor have done, as much as by what Perrottet has failed to do.

    To reference Dr Bonham again, there is a big difference between being behind 49-51 on sparse polling (where Berejiklian was 4 years ago, with an untested Labor leader who turned out to be a flop) and being steadily behind 46-54 on a number of different polls.

  18. Doing a job in Adelaide, taken to Donald Bradman’s topless bar. Being a young lad from the country this was a bit of a shock.

    Given the type of businesses he ran not too surprised.

  19. Socrates:

    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 9:10 pm


    From the memoirs of some of Bradman’s teammates years ago as they were close to passing on, they respected his skill but few liked him. His relationship with his own son is telling too.’]

    Yes, I’ve read a few similar accounts of his teammates too. He was my childhood hero but not anymore; for he knew the clout he had, and took advantage of it while being publicly apolitical. His letter to Fraser was damning, only revealed by an astute researcher looking for the origin of the term “dole bludger”, which could be seen as payback for Howard including in the Citizenship test Bradman’s average of 99.94. I’m off to “The Captains` Walk” tomorrow to the pull down his bust.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 11:18 am
    For Macarthur

    A Christmas tree yesterday amid the darkness of Sophia Square in Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo: Felipe Dana/AP

    Thank you, C@tmomma, and I hope you could stay cool on the Coast and have a Merry Christmas!

    I can now relax, since we’ve finished cleaning up after our first turn hosting Christmas for the whole family on my wife’s (Ukrainian) side.

    For you and everyone else here:
    Христос народжується!
    Славімо його!

  21. bega may not be good for liberals if there candadate is triying to protend he is an independent constence could not even winn gilmore and will struggle if he ran again due tohis good will over bush fires fading but made litle him sence his good will came from attacking morrison then wantid to run in his teamteam

  22. Wonder who will get on nsw liberal upper house ticket just looked up mclaron jones term and her current term does not end foor four years so she would do a latham perrottit wanted her to resign her seat and run foor re election desbite having four years remaining desbite alixandra smiths best efforts the nsw liberals are falling apart

  23. it looks like the liberal candadate in bega is going to adopt constences trick desbite beigng a former cabenit minister and long time liberal constence ran in gilmore claiming to not care about party politics protendid to be aindependent

  24. Socrates @ Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 7:54 pm:
    “Further to Sprocket’s excellent suggestion on donating to the Georgian volunteers, Xanthippe and I donated to the official Ukraine government charity appeal, United 24.”

    Socrates, this is exactly what Mrs Mac and I have done this Christmas as well.

  25. Mavis

    I read your comments on NSW policing and the hardline approach to drug enforcement earlier too. Shocking! To me it borders on abuse of power. I know more of philosophy than law but I can’t believe they are winning any war for hearts and minds.

    The approach to treat addiction as a medical problem sounds sensible, as long as the dealers and importers are still locked away. I can’t imagine them going straight just because their clients are no longer committing crimes. Especially those dealing hard drugs like meth. I am told its effects on the brain are permanent and devastating – much worse than heroin or marihuana.

    Serious question – has any police force really ended a drug problem through hardline crackdowns on addicts?

  26. A personal wish re. the excessive use of strong adjectives. As for new chums, please serve your apprenticeship by not being so agreeable. I saw today, a poster that agreed with anor ‘100+’ – stuff me.

  27. Moscow is unrelenting in its determination to steal future generations from Ukraine, and to steal Ukrainian identity from that generation:

    “ While Ukrainians face daunting logistical barriers to recover children taken to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree last May making it quick and easy for Russians to adopt Ukrainian children.

    The policy is vigorously pursued by Putin’s children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, who openly advocates stripping children of their Ukrainian identities and teaching them to love Russia.”

  28., paywalled

    … some of my family were born here, I only got here after the Australia Acts of 1986 (one day, 9 May will replace Australia Day)

    Let’s see if the VTP will be accompanied by a TRC and treaty, given all them 1788 leftovers, after all it doesn’t appear that CtG is working, affirmative action or not

    It’s time, way past time though I note across the ditch didn’t, to remove the colonial Union Jack from the flag

  29. Sócrates,

    As long as we only deal with the supply of illegal drugs and not the demand, the problem will not go away. Australia’s drug dealers love our ‘harm minimization’ strategy. Why do we only test drivers for illegal drugs but not pedestrians? We are saying that if you take illegal drugs then grab a taxi. Not exactly an anti drugs message. And motorists are only charged with driving offenses not drug offenses.

    The solution is simple. Compulsory cold turkey until you get the message that giving money to vicious crime syndicates is wrong. Take more drugs? Back to cold turkey. Easy.

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