Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

  1. Thanks for posting the breakdown. Probably the most fascinating part to me is how little variation there is in both primary vote and 2PP among the different education and income groups. I know that corresponding breakdowns in the USA show very different numbers. This reflects a clear contrast in the voting blocs that support the parties.

    It’s possible that it tips one way or another in the future (likely towards the higher educated cohorts moving left, as has been the global trend) but for now it’s rather fascinating to see support being drawn almost equally from all education and income brackets.

  2. Hi William,
    Joyeux Noël from France.
    Thank you so much for curating this unique blog, where friendships in the real world are made, and where, for me, the exchange of differing political and world views does influence my thinking.

    To all,
    Weather on PB:

    Here it is 15: 30 hrs on December 25th, and in our little Bastide near Bordeaux, 16 C and sunny. Also, no wind, so it would pass as 20 C in Sydney, real feel.

    Yesterday in the markets some stall holders were talking about how unseasonably warm it is, while others said this was “normal”.

    I think they are both right. The climate here (in winter) reminds me a lot of Blackheath, where I grew up. It can be very cold and frosty, but it is often sunny. And sometimes, you get those little “holidays from winter”, where it is warm and sunny for a few days in the middle of winter.

    However, I think the little “holidays from winter” are probably becoming more frequent.

    My bulbs in the window box are already growing strongly, and the trees across to road, which last year were bare until mid-march, have spring leaves.

  3. “Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women”

    If memory serves, during the ScoMo era the gender gap was very distinct.

    Albo seemingly does not alienate women the way that ScoMo did.

  4. G’day Douglas and Milko,
    I hope you had a relaxing Xmas. Not as much to worry about as last year, with Covid being front of mind for everyone. Did you read that I have a French family staying next door to me in the Holiday Rental for 3 weeks, here on the Central Coast? The gentleman was so very French! He wore a beret and said very little. His wife was the talkative one. She was afraid to go in the water in our little beach across the road, even though the weather is typically hot and humid. I think she thought there would be sharks everywhere! My son saw a stingray once but that’s about it. I had no shoes on while I was talking to them and she inquired as to whether my feet were cold? In Sydney, in Summer!?! How cute! I also found out she is holidaying here with her 2 husbands, former and latter and the daughter from her first marriage. How very French! 🙂

    Take care, see you in May.

  5. And happy Saturnalia to you, Douglas and Milko.

    (“Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over”: I plead guilty to two of those charges, your Honour.)

  6. Good morning Oliver Sutton 🙂
    I hope you had a good day yesterday?
    My son is off to work early again.

    Doesn’t this say it all about Coalition support:

    Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over

  7. Top of the morning to you too, C@t.

    Indeed, a nice family day chez Sutton yesterday with the Lovely Lady, two of our daughters, their partners and grandkids.

    (Daughter #3 and her partner currently in the vicinity of the Arctic Circle. Heavily rugged up.)

  8. And yes, C@t, that certainly does say it all about Coalition support.

    As a Queenslander I take no pride in the 51 – 49 to the Coalition. Although, on the positive side, that’s a swing of 3% to Labor since the election.

  9. Oliver Sutton,
    Noice! 😀

    We had a lovely day, video chatting with #1 Son in Baltimore, Maryland, #2 Son and I eating a beautiful meal, which I timed to perfection for his return from work, opening presents, which he thankfully liked, and then ringing my parents on the Mid North Coast, who are still going strong in their 80s. That was good enough. 🙂

  10. I think the thing with Queensland is that it is like Florida, Texas and the Mid West of America, rolled into one. Wealthy Retirees, Miners and Farmers. A hard nut for Labor to crack.

  11. C@t

    The numbers are a worry.

    The situation in China is dire. I think the CCP have lost the narrative regarding their botched and incompetent handling of the pandemic.

    The forthcoming Lunar festival will likely I fear see the beginning of a widespread collapse of their health system followed by their economy. The knock on effect to the rest of the world will be grave.

    I’ve read reports of around 5,000 desths a day and a million or so infected every 24 hours. It will be tends of thousands of deaths by then.

    The population in China could actually decrease by up to 10% in six months if current trends continue.

    A real worry

  12. Grant_ExLibris: I concur and with the fertility rate of 1.4 the current slow fall in population will accelerate.
    In addition the deaths of women 16-40 (even though a small group compared to projected deaths of the over 60s) will reduce births even further.

  13. COVID tearing China a new asshole after Xi spent 3 years linking his leadership to harsh COVID suppression policies is about the only conceivable thing that could cause so much chaos in China that it could upend his leadership. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. With Lunar New Year approaching the dam has burst at an appalling time for their prospects of mitigating the surge.

  14. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 6:49 am

    Grant_ExLibris: I concur and with the fertility rate of 1.4 the current slow fall in population will accelerate.
    In addition the deaths of women 16-40 (even though a small group compared to projected deaths of the over 60s) will reduce births even further.’
    ==========================
    Covid differentially kills women who are older. Covid may actually increase the fertility rate but across a smaller population.

  15. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 5:08 am
    I think the thing with Queensland is that it is like Florida, Texas and the Mid West of America, rolled into one. Wealthy Retirees, Miners and Farmers. A hard nut for Labor to crack.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Agreed C@T and change, disappointingly, is much more slowly realised up here. I’m hoping a continuing good Albanese government might facilitate this change however. Although myth is easily perpetuated, cold hard facts over time are hard to deny and I think we now have the government to embed this generational change.

  16. G – exL

    All data since the Covid zero have been manipulated by the Chicommies. We can safely say that things are very bad. How bad? Who knows?

  17. Boerwar

    Agree. When orders for Chinese products from cars to razor blades and everything in between start being delayed due to factories shutting down because staff are sick, dying or dead ir will be a very good indication.

    However interestingly I’ve read reports that many folk are self isolating as they are fearful of getting sick.

    Whether this translates to less people travelling back home for the Lunar festival and holiday remains to be seen.

    My worry is that 2023 in terms of fatalities and the posdible near total collapse of the Chinese economy will make the last two years seem like a walk in the park.

  18. Hey all PBers, past, present and future.

    Hope you had a happy Christmas, and have an even merrier New Year.

    This one’s for hope, and the French among us:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7w-oRGLbac&ab_channel=MrMichem72

    This one’s for the dog lovers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xam01uaj6Vg&ab_channel=uploaderXZ

    And last, but definitely not least, for the cat lovers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gbq263jOB0&ab_channel=PeupouetPeunam

    Enjoy.

    Looking forward to re-joining the political fray in the New Year, especially the by-election in Narracan! Go, Dan the man.

    PS, sad to hear of Jasper’s demise, BK. I hope Ginnie’s welcoming him to her silent cloud.

  19. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-25/ukraine-will-create-its-own-christmas-miracle-says-zelenskyy/101808002

    This is a very clever courageous man who thinks with his heart. The image shows a small man standing alone in an empty street, arms loose by his sides. He is dressed for warmth in a drab practical coat. There’s a distant Christmas tree behind him with its own message. There is no aggression in him, no power display, just his presence staring at the camera. He could be a child. No smile and no emotion of any kind sits on his face. But the question is there. He’s asking, “Who are you?”

    When Ukraine defeats Putin’s Russia, they will build statues like this.

  20. Russian state TV celebrates ‘brave’ Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz for undermining Ukraine

    Russian state-funded media played clips of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Fox News host Tucker Carlson because the conservative personalities oppose additional U.S. aid for Ukraine.

    Russian Media Monitor translated Moscow’s video coverage of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the United States.

    Like many conservatives in the U.S., Russian state television criticized the leader for wearing “a sweater and cargo pants.”

    The Russian media report also included a clip of Carson mocking the speech.

    “They clap like seals,” Carlson opined. “So, no matter what the man in cargo pants said, ‘Send more money. I command you! Send me
    more money!'”

    https://www.rawstory.com/russian-media-boebert-gaetz/

  21. Thanks for the image sprocket_. Interesting that the religion cohorts are divided into “Christian” and “No Religion”. Perhaps there were other religion cohorts unworthy of publication for one reason or another.

  22. The NewsPoll table has some gems, like:

    Better Prime Minister in Qld

    Albo 53
    Dutton 31

    Better Prime Minister language other than English at home

    Albo 64
    Dutton 18

    Approval amongst non tertiary educated

    Albo 57
    Dutton 35

  23. The article itself also offers insights, frednk:

    “Demographic analysis by polling firm RedBridge shows that by the 2026 [Victorian] state election an additional 60,000 to 70,000 of the Coalition’s voting base will have died and the two parties’ combined vote would likely drop below 30 per cent.”

    “Australian National University political science professor Ian McAllister said unlike previous generations Millennials were not becoming more conservative as they aged, partly because of a lack of economic prosperity and partly because of social media.”

    … but mostly because the Coalition’s policies are way out of touch, surely?

  24. sprocket_

    The results do however show greater support for the non University educated, hence no doubt the claimed strategy of focusing on the outer suburbs. but that is where Language other than English reside.

    I really think it is the politics of hate that is killing them. You can’t have a good culture war without hate.

  25. Like many conservatives in the U.S., Russian state television criticized the leader for wearing “a sweater and cargo pants.”

    Says the media who lionise their leader in nothing more than camo pants and nothing on top but his moobs. 😐

    Anyway, President Zelenskyy has already check-mated the treasonous American stoolies for Putin. And the moronic Russian media. He’s cast aside the jumper and kitted himself out in exactly what Putin wears in Winter, a polo neck and a puffer jacket. 😉

  26. Late Riser: “Perhaps there were other religion cohorts unworthy of publication for one reason or another.”

    Probably sample sizes too small for statistical validity.


  27. Oliver Sutton says:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8:47 am
    ..

    … but mostly because the Coalition’s policies are way out of touch, surely?

    Which pretty much summarizes every one of the comments.

  28. “Chicommies”

    Whenever I read this, I immediately ignore anything else that accompanies it.

    GEL: “The population in China could actually decrease by up to 10% in six months if current trends continue.”

    There is zero chance of this happening. 140 million Chinese people are not going to die in six months. That’s 750,000 people dying a day. More than the entire world mortality of the WW2 concentrated to six months.

  29. “Non Christian” would be about 10% of the people surveyed in a representative poll (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia). In a sample size of about 2,000 for individual polls, there would be about 200 per poll, covering a very wide variety of belief systems and attitudes. Aggregating polls would give something bigger that might give meaningful results, but lumping in all non-Christian religions together might not be that meaningful.

  30. Morning all. I hope everyone had a happy Christmas day. It is a beautiful sunny morning here in Adelaide.

    The only story I wanted to comment on was the one about Albo helping to serve meals at the Exodus foundation in Sydney.
    “ Albanese spent the morning THE SAME WAY HE DOES EVERY YEAR, at the Ashfield Uniting Church in his inner-western Sydney electorate with the Rev Bill Crews.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/25/it-can-be-a-difficult-time-albanese-helps-to-serve-christmas-meal-for-australians-in-need

    So this is not a photo stunt, but what Albo normally does. We have a much better human being running the country now. That is worth celebrating.

  31. Oh crap! I just remembered that BK isn’t doing the Dawn Patrol for the next week. 😳

    It’s probably too late to do it now but I promise to remember to do it from tomorrow on. 😀

  32. wonder what will happin with liberals nsw upper house ticket mclaron jones term does not end foor four years so how was perotit going to get her to lead the ticket on qld suprisingly labor does well in Qld at state levil but federaly the coalition are strong there similar to Wa which is dominated by which miners however mcgowan managed to help albanese have a strong election result there helped no dought by palmer

  33. Dawn Patrol (lol)
    Your Melbourne Boxing Day shopping guide – Flipboardhttps://flipboard.com › article › com
    Your Melbourne Boxing Day shopping guide: What’s open and where are the best sales? On Boxing Day in Australia, if you aren’t watching cricket on the couch …

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