Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 46
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  1. OS, S777

    OK. But then if there are not enough samples in a cohort to do the statistics, why separate them out in the first place? The binary could be “Religious” and “Non-religious”.

  3. Glad you had a rest BK. Pretty obvious the journos were all on holidays yesterday.

    Sprocket

    Thanks for posting the details of that Newspoll (aggregation?). Pretty obviously changing leader but not changing the culture is not working for the LNP. Nor should it.

    Serious question – have the Liberals made any policy question since the election?

  4. Hope all are having a peaceful holiday period.

    My thoughts and best wishes go out to those many Australians living in poverty who have been left behind by consecutive Govts. Albanese has greatly disappointed so far in this regard.

  6. So, Bradman was a bullshitter.

    Says he’s non-political in one sentence, then proceeds to go on a rant with paragraphs of pro-business, pro-freedom, anti-union ideology. Funny stuff. 😆

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    “So, Bradman was a bullshitter. Says he’s non-political in one sentence, then proceeds to go on a rant …”

    A variant on “I’m not racist, but …”

  9. Queenslanders (and I am completely generalising here) tend to have a chip on their shoulder about Labor politicians from outside of Queensland. They seem to be fine with Labor at the state level and also federal Labor but only when a Queenslander is leader such as Rudd. Voters in other states generally don’t have this sort of outlook on politics .

  10. Albo and Chalmers have had one makeshift budget with many urgent problems to fix and a big fiscal hole they inherited. It is not realistic to judge whether they will fix poverty built up over a decade of cruel Liberal policy after six months. Judge them after the next two full year budgets.

  11. Late Riser The binary could be “Religious” and “Non-religious”.

    That occurred to me as well. Just as the attitudes of churchgoing Catholics and churchgoing Protestants to social and political issues are now similar in spite of a degree past (even present) animosity, I think that we would find that the attitudes of practising Muslims are similar to those practicing Christians. Probably the same goes for Hindus, less sure about Buddhists. Mormons (Latter Day Saints) would count as Christians, even if many Christians say they shouldn’t. They would be mostly conservative in social and political attitudes.

  12. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 9:33 am
    Hope all are having a peaceful holiday period.
    My thoughts and best wishes go out to those many Australians living in poverty who have been left behind by consecutive Govts. Albanese has greatly disappointed so far in this regard.
    _____________________
    Have been doing a lot of driving the last couple of days. The roads are so quiet.
    A lot of people on the radio calling in saying they just didn’t bother with Christmas this year and the same with taking a holiday.
    They just can’t afford it.

  17. Interesting, Steve.

    “Donald was registered just once in the UK this year, compared to six times in 2021.”

    Such a quintessentially Scots name, now sullied by association. Cue Andy Stewart:

    “Donald, where’s your Trumpers?”

  19. I doubt you’d find many Millennials or Gen Z calling in to Shock Jock Radio.

    They’re either at the cricket at the MCG or at the Boxing Day sales. 🙂

  20. Late Riser @ Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8:34 am:

    “ This is a very clever courageous man who thinks with his heart. The image shows a small man standing alone in an empty street, arms loose by his sides. He is dressed for warmth in a drab practical coat. There’s a distant Christmas tree behind him with its own message. There is no aggression in him, no power display, just his presence staring at the camera. He could be a child. No smile and no emotion of any kind sits on his face. But the question is there. He’s asking, “Who are you?”

    When Ukraine defeats Putin’s Russia, they will build statues like this.”
    ===============

    LR, this is a very insightful and empathetic analysis of the communicative genius and authentic passion of President Zelenskyy. Thank you.

  21. The fog’s cleared, the sun’s out in a clear blue sky, the cicadas are doing their thing. We’re set for another perfect Summer day in Sydney.

  23. The concept of having a Productivity Commission is a good one – having a rational examination of policies to ensure they are in the public interest.

    However, for years the Productivity Commission has been dominated by right-wing free market let it rip promoters. It is good to see them under attack by a Royal Commissioner for putting “productivity” ahead of people.

    Royal commissioner hits back at Productivity Commission over gig workers in aged care
    By Angus Thompson

    The public servant who oversaw the aged care royal commission has hit back at the Productivity Commission after it rejected a recommendation that use of gig workers in nursing homes should be limited.

    The Productivity Commission, a Commonwealth body charged with investigating economic and social policies, found there was “little persuasive evidence” of the benefits of a call by the royal commission to give precedence to directly employed staff, as opposed to outsourced workers. The commission said it might even worsen the problem of a lack of care.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/royal-commissioner-hits-back-at-productivity-commission-over-gig-workers-in-aged-care-20221223-p5c8gw.html

  24. ”A lot of people on the radio calling in saying they just didn’t bother with Christmas this year and the same with taking a holiday.
    They just can’t afford it.”

    The Augean Stables left behind after nine years of malevolent and incompetent right-wing Government can’t be cleared overnight, nor indeed in six months.

  25. My area of Melbourne warm and overcast. Just walked Dusty who is now flat out by my feet while I have a coffee. Will put the cricket on shortly

  26. I am currently dealing with a blocked sewer and thought I might check out The Drain Man whose ads I hear regularly on the radio. If anyone here has had anything to do with this company or heard any comments about them I would appreciate the feedback.

  27. phoenixRED @ Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8:36 am:

    “ Russian state-funded media played clips of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Fox News host Tucker Carlson because the conservative personalities oppose additional U.S. aid for Ukraine. …

    … The Russian media report also included a clip of Carson mocking the speech.

    “They clap like seals,” Carlson opined. “So, no matter what the man in cargo pants said, ‘Send more money. I command you! Send me
    more money!’”
    ==============

    Carlson is a fucking enemy. He has spent the last eight years at least urging support for Russia in its genocide upon Ukraine. He should be fucking sanctioned and all his assets frozen, then redirected to aid for Ukraine.

  28. Oliver Sutton says:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 9:46 am
    Rex Douglas says:
    “So, Bradman was a bullshitter. Says he’s non-political in one sentence, then proceeds to go on a rant …”

    A variant on “I’m not racist, but …”

    Bradman & Howard had a lot in common

  29. Taylormade

    “ A lot of people on the radio calling in saying they just didn’t bother with Christmas this year and the same with taking a holiday.
    They just can’t afford it.”

    Best laugh of the day so far. Talkback radio, so irrelevant, so out of touch. Not to mention that many will be long dead by the next election.

  31. bystander says:
    Monday, December 26, 2022 at 10:15 am

    Just ring around.. any decent plumber with water jet will do.. get their min charge & hourly rate.

    It’s not rocket science

  32. Reposting here from the last thread:

    Moscow is unrelenting in its determination to steal future generations from Ukraine, and to steal Ukrainian identity from that generation:

    “ While Ukrainians face daunting logistical barriers to recover children taken to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree last May making it quick and easy for Russians to adopt Ukrainian children.

    The policy is vigorously pursued by Putin’s children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, who openly advocates stripping children of their Ukrainian identities and teaching them to love Russia.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/24/ukraine-stolen-children-maria-lvova-belova/

  34. The old three walnuts trick.

    The Chicommies announced move to switch from one institution to another was a sleight of hand to move from reporting daily cases by the NHC to reporting whenever the CDC feels inclined so to. The Chicommies will be instructing the CDC when it is an appropriate time for it to feel that inclination:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282544.shtml

    Where is Xi? Why he is crisscrossing China with a focus on… boosting China’s food harvest. ‘Dynamic Zero’ has gone the way of ‘Let a thousand flowers bloom’: obliterated from history.

  36. bystander @ #66 Monday, December 26th, 2022 – 10:15 am

    I am currently dealing with a blocked sewer and thought I might check out The Drain Man whose ads I hear regularly on the radio. If anyone here has had anything to do with this company or heard any comments about them I would appreciate the feedback.

    Buy an auger and do it yourself. Probably available at Bunnings. Much cheaper and what the plumber would use.

  37. Again, Christmas Day, Russia attacks civilian Ukraine while Ukraine targets Russian military in self-defence:

    “ Russian forces shelled over 65 settlements in Ukraine on Christmas Day, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Dec. 25.

    Russian troops shelled Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, over 10 times with MLRS and shelled a total of 25 settlements in the region throughout the day.

    Around 40 settlements were targeted across Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, near the strategic cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted two strikes against five Russian control points and groupings of military personnel.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-forces-shell-over-65-settlements-in-ukraine-on-christmas-day

  38. Qld is reasonably decentralised, and “true Queenslanders” live north of Gympie. Or so I’m told when I venture “up there”. Which leads me to polling cohorts. Maybe it would be useful to further divide Qld in two when doing the statistics.

  39. ‘After Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a rousing speech to U.S. lawmakers this week, Tucker Carlson unleashed a diatribe that put schoolyard sadists everywhere to shame. “No one’s ever addressed the United States Congress in a sweatshirt before,” he seethed, slamming Zelensky as a “strip club” manager whose presence was “humiliating” to “the greatest country on Earth.”

    Carlson’s attack on the Ukrainian president, whose olive green garb was meant to dramatize his country’s wartime plight, has sparked outrage because of its demeaning quality at a time of extraordinary duress for the Ukrainian people. But this episode deserves a deeper look than Carlson’s adolescent belittling usually merits.

    Carlson’s rant carried a more hateful edge than usual, a kind of shrill fury. Perhaps that’s because Zelensky’s presence before Congress was far more humiliating to Carlson and his ideological comrades than to anyone else: It demonstrated how badly they misjudged Ukraine’s will to resist Russian conquest and the durability of the U.S. commitment to our beleaguered ally.

    This represents the failure of a worldview, a strain of far-right authoritarian populism, that goes well beyond Ukraine. A whole lot of things have happened that — in Carlson’s mental universe — were not supposed to happen.

    In his diatribe, Carlson depicted Zelensky as little more than a sleazy street thug who had come to “demand money” from Congress, telling his audience that the lawmakers “love him much more than they love you.” He exaggerated Ukraine’s conditions for ending the war, depicting Ukraine as the unreasonable party.

    Carlson has long insisted that Ukrainians are “pawns” in the United States’ quest for “regime change” in Russia, predicting our warmongering would trigger nuclear catastrophe. He has trivialized the invasion as a faraway “border dispute,” and has scoffed that Democrats are hypnotizing Americans into feeling “hate” for Russia.

    Carlson’s obvious bet has been that voters wouldn’t care about the conflict and would see little virtue in U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Lawmakers would ultimately abandon the cause.

    But Zelensky’s appearance itself forcefully repudiated all of this. It demonstrated that Ukrainian resistance is driven by its people’s own extraordinarily courageous commitment to self rule. It showed that U.S. support for Ukraine is unwavering. It displayed the success of President Biden’s careful balance, which has enabled Ukraine to regain substantial ground while avoiding direct U.S. escalation, refuting Carlson’s predictions otherwise.

    There is an ideology behind all that wrongness, and Carlson has clearly laid it out. It tells Americans that Democratic elites prioritize Ukraine’s border over our own — they love Zelensky more than they love you. This conflation of the two borders, a widespread right-wing populist trope, encourages Americans to turn inward in multiple ways, washing our hands of responsibility for international allies and desperate migrants alike.

    This worldview also rails against elite wokeness. Carlson frequently tells viewers that the same elites who want people to hate Russia and are obliterating the southern border are also brainwashing kids with anti-White racism.

    As Cathy Young writes at the Bulwark, right-wing populist distaste for Zelensky is driven partly by Ukraine’s desire for integration with the liberal, secular, internationalism-minded West. That through-line links attacks on elite wokeness, pro-Ukraine sentiment and receptiveness to migration.

    As a political argument, all this has proved pretty impotent.’

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/23/tucker-carlson-zelensky-speech-congress-2022-elections/

  40. simm0888 @ #59 Monday, December 26th, 2022 – 9:47 am

    Queenslanders (and I am completely generalising here) tend to have a chip on their shoulder about Labor politicians from outside of Queensland. They seem to be fine with Labor at the state level and also federal Labor but only when a Queenslander is leader such as Rudd. Voters in other states generally don’t have this sort of outlook on politics .

    Strange, strange place is Queensland.

    Brizzy and the burbs seem to have a grasp on things, but the scammers/pretenders on the Gold Coast and the hillbillies everywhere else are a strange breed.

  41. RE; LNP policies.

    Dutton has already said he will wait for the inevitable Labor stuff up, and for people to flock back to the LNP.
    There is no sign of any policy change. The election review seemed to identify no policy problems whatsoever.

    Rolls eyes.

  42. Macarthur,
    This article may make you feel a bit better:

    A huge gas pipeline explosion outside St. Petersburg last month, major fires in two separate Moscow shopping malls allegedly caused by dodgy welding, and faulty power grids that have left tens of thousands without heat and electricity are just some of the incidents reported since Russia’s efforts to obliterate Ukraine’s infrastructure that began in October.

    In late October, two sewer pipes burst in the southern city of Volgograd, flooding several streets with feces and waste water, and leaving 200,000 of the 1 million residents without water or heating for several days.

    Ilya Kravchenko, a local lawmaker who collected testimony from more than 1,000 victims of the incident and filed a lawsuit against the corporation that owns the sewer system, said the sight was “not pretty.”

    “This is the worst year on record. The city has never had so many problems,” Kravchenko said.

    A few weeks later, a similar, though less drastic sewage problem in the town of Pervouralsk, a small city west of Yekaterinburg, provoked residents to drag buckets of fecal water to the offices of the local water council in protest, claiming authorities had neglected the problem for years.

    While disasters now raise suspicions of sabotage linked to the war in Ukraine, poorly maintained infrastructure is a long-standing and persistent problem in Russia — the result of old Soviet-era systems in need of repair and costly maintenance, decades of endemic corruption, and the government’s prioritization of defense and security budgets, as well as the development of major cities over regional towns.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/25/russia-infrastructure-volgograd-perm-neglect/

  43. There is quite a bit of symmetry between Tucker Carlson’s and the Greens’ views about arming Ukraine: not total, but a significant amount.

  44. Thanks for the suggestion C@t. Not sure that I would trust myself with one of those. You are obviously a very hands on type of gal.

  45. There was an article in the Australian just before Christmas about AUKUS and the RANs submarine choice. It said virtually nothing new except that the AUKUS project may be a target for foreign spies. Really?!

    At this point I still hope the easter bunny will bring us a saner return to building French (nuclear) subs but the tone of the Oz article suggests a British or US design with 2040 arrival date remains locked in. That suggests no sub construction jobs for ten years. (An SSN is an eight to ten year build).

    There are reportedly now 350 people working in Canberra on the SSN task force. No wonder these mega projects are so hard to kill off or change direction! Too many people would be personally threatened by recommending a change.

    By comparison the Naval office for the Attack class project had 250 staff when it was cancelled. Adelaide lost another 400 jobs when the ASC upgrade work was halted then too. In theory these people were offered jobs on the Collins LOTE project instead. In practice most are now doing something else.

    Next time somebody says the sub project is only being run to generate jobs, remind them yes, this is true, and those jobs are in Canberra.

  46. Spot- on observations , OS. and Pi
    That Taylormade made the reference tells much about the poster. “Echo chamber” anyone?.
    What next?
    ” the silent majority ” ” Quiet Australians ” or the ultimate- ” most Australians ”
    PS. Rex – ” Albo has greatly disappointed so far”. Seriously, Rex. Can Albo undo the damage of 9 years of Conservative malpractice in some 6 months?

  48. citizen: “for years the Productivity Commission has been dominated by right-wing free market let it rip promoters. It is good to see them under attack by a Royal Commissioner for putting “productivity” ahead of people.”

    That’s the problem; they haven’t done either. Productivity gains had completely stalled under the LNP at the same time as crushing people.

  50. Bystander
    You need to make sure your auger management includes it not coming up and smashing your toilet pedestal. The other issue is why the pipes are blocked. If they are cracked you might be having problems with tree roots growing in your drains.
    Good luck!

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