As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Part 4
Finally, Fitzgerald outlines a policy proposal for a durable Australia-China foreign policy in the Age of Disruption.
* A dedication to the institutions of multilateralism. Australia must encourage this by building trust and influence with China.
* Australia needs to find ways into the decision-making processesof China. I don’t think this is entirely possible when China works to actively discourage foreign countries from influencing its decision-making and itself works to do the opposite.
* Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement leadership.
It’s pretty much one way at the moment but what will we see when Don Farrell goes to China?
* Australia to offer support to China, facilitation and participation in, ‘One Belt, One Road’. I can’t see China ceding control of any of it to Australia, except as we are the supplier of raw materials for it. China is determined to make as much money for China as possible, in order to use that money to wield power and influence in the world. Also China actively works to enmesh their own companies in other countries.
2. Fitzgerald states that, ‘we must refocus on Asia as our primary geostrategic habitat’. Yes, but not so as to simply end up carrying water for China.
Also, we need to continue to cement in place Australia’s relationships with like-minded democracies around the world, not only the US, in order to counter the rise of One Party Autocracies.
3. I’m glad Fitzgerald finally got around to saying, ‘an elevated relationship with China, need not and must not be at the expense of our relationship with the US’. However, then he goes on to state that Australia must, ‘withdraw from collaboration with the US in containment of China’. I think we should leave any decision like that until we see what the geostrategic situation is on the ground at the time.
Something which I cannot agree with Fitzgerald on about is that there should be ‘No more Pine Gap, no more US Marine Base in Darwin’. He says that Australia, ‘should say no to America, without rupturing the relationship.’ Which Australia does, even though some would suggest otherwise.
4. ‘A refocused foreign policy must be led by the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister’. Tick.
Fitzgerald recommends that the government create an ‘Australia-China Commission’. Suggesting, ‘a consortium of Australian and Asian think tanks’. This would have to be managed in a delicate and sophisticated way so that it didn’t just become a forum dominated by a Chinese wish list. Though, Kevin Rudd’s Asia Society probably does do yeoman’s work in a similar area already.
And I agree we need to be China Sceptics and America Sceptics.
My final observation is that some are too much of one and not enough of the other.
An anonymous subscriber to a forum on the internet versus Dr Stephen Fitzgerald
What next?
China is not only the largest trading partner of Australia – and China has assumed those positions (plural) over just 50 years (actually less)
China has upwards of 1.4 billion citizens, representing some 20% of the population of the Globe
Fitzgerald is researched , informative and correct
Our populous Nations to our North have acquainted that they do not wish to be put in a position of having to choose between the USA and China
Lol Boerwar. Great take.
Every country in the world has covid running rampant.
Including USA and Australia.
And yet, now that China has joined the rest of the world in living with covid, we decide to slap travel testing just on China?
And they’re the bullies?
We are literally punishing them for making us look bad earlier on for our shitty management of quarantine and vaccine racing. We are the bullies in this instance.
If China makes a proportional, rational response to fight back at a bully, good on them.
frednk @ #2156 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 4:27 pm
Thanks for the link. What an irritating podcast. They get close to something and one of them (usually Stewart or Cuban) interrupts the flow and off they go in another direction. Statements go unchallenged. Ideas are left hanging.
Here’s one. “Lies spread 6 times faster.” I am pretty sure that’s been debunked. (And ironically is an example of how this works.) What happens is that the more people that are interested in something the more people they tell and the faster the information spreads. Speed is related to how interesting it is. Something true and interesting also spreads quickly. (Queen Elizabeth’s death for instance.) If pushed, I may be able to dig up the research. But the bottom line is that lies are interesting and most facts aren’t.
Here’s another. “Twitter doesn’t have algorithms.” Hmm. You can tweak what you see, but you can’t avoid what twitter is. Even the way the screen is laid out, scrolling, with distractions, draws from the same psychology that is used in poker machines. You have little rewards to keep you going, but at random intervals. That psychology works when you’re training animals. It works when you’re training humans. (It’s also how you create popular games.)
Then the point being made that Twitter has become the news, or “real life” as Stewart describes it, Trump is raised as an example, got me thinking. If true, then it is no longer a “town square” but a cage for fighting. And that’s a different business model. (One that Mr Musk may eventually figure out.)
The reminder that the US experience is quite different from the rest of the world was useful. I was also taken by the link between disinformation and Russia’s military actions in Middle East and Europe over the last 10 years. Ressa and Ioffe were worth listening to.
I’m about halfway through. If more thoughts surface, I may post them. Or not. 😉
Thanks though. Interesting watching the interplay.
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 8:41 am
“We can’t trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer,” Mr. Rosenberg complained on MSNBC in late October, “because it’s essentially Republican propaganda.”
Gosh, aren’t we fortunate that our Australian media reports polling from an informed and independent perspective!
”
As per media analysis, we get Hung parliament with 54-46 2PP in favour of ALP. What a wonderful independent and informed perspective. 🙂
VE
The WHO supports the move.
China is threatening to ban Chinese tourists from any country that dares put the health of its citizens before the interests of Xi.
An anonymous subscriber to a forum on the internet versus Dr Stephen Fitzgerald
Fanbois will fan. 😐
And if you’d bother to actually read my critique, instead of reflexively running to Fitzgerald and China’s defense, you would have realised that I agreed with some things he had to say but not everything.
Anyway, thank you for letting me know that I can discount any opinions you may have in the future, as rational comprehension doesn’t appear to be your strong suit. Slavish defense of those who should be open to criticism in a society that has free speech, is.
Feel the pain!
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/155340-putin_greetings/
I must say The Global Times is a cut above Pravda. Bludgers like VE actually get sucked in from time to time. China is all set to re-export Covid to the world like it did just under three years ago and VE wants to pat them on the back. Xi is the victim here.
The Global Time’s coverage of Xi’s invasion of Taiwan is going to be interesting.
OTOH, Pravda is genuine laugh out loud territory… except that they are providing gormless cover for Putin’s War.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 5:32 pm
“Jacinta Price is a positive for the indigenous community because the biggest mistake in the 1990s was the lack of conservative indigenous leaders and that put Howard and many conservatives offside.”
Absolute rubbish they were just racist qunts through and through.
—————————
The ALP does not own the government benches and Noel Pearson has said they had no relationship with the Howard government and that hurt reconciliation.
As per reports we had spectacular “government sanctioned fireworks” on Sydney Harbour for 2023 New Year.
In a medium sized University town called Heidelberg, Germany, there were no “government sanctioned fireworks”.
However, what happened was something similar to Diwali and spectacular.
Hundreds of Individuals brought their fireworks to Riverside area. The police van was parked on the curbside.
They started the fireworks around 11:15 pm. We gathered on the footpath (with railings) which was sandwiched between the River and main road. There were wide variety of fireworks.
As it neared midnight to New Year, the tempo of Fireworks increased. At Midnight it fireworks reached a crescendo. There were fireworks going around us from 3 feet away to 200 meters away (birdseye).
When I say around I mean 360°.
It was absolutely amazing spectacle. Individuals might have spent collectively €50,000 (euros) on the fireworks in the area where I stay.
Just imagine we in the midst of it all. Not sitting in an orderly fashion like they do in Sydney. Thousands of people gathered around from 11:00 pm onwards. They did fireworks on the road stopping the cars.
The fireworks display went upto around 12:15 am.
Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 7:37 pm
Lol Boerwar. Great take.
Every country in the world has covid running rampant.
Including USA and Australia.
And yet, now that China has joined the rest of the world in living with covid, we decide to slap travel testing just on China?
————————-
The problem with China is it presents as a large wave of new inflections and because of their vaccination levels that wave might bring new more dangerous variants.
As, indeed, I dismiss your opinions
I do not know your life experiences or who, and at what levels across society, commerce and industry, you associate with except to speculate that given the time you spend on an internet site you are not socialising with people (and you are obviously not alone)
Me?
We have just returned home from a most pleasant function – and my wife is now watching a 30 year old movie on the ABC hence me scanning my iPhone
”The problem with China is it presents as a large wave of new inflections and because of their vaccination levels that wave might bring new more dangerous variants.”
An eminently sensible precaution. It’s not as we’re banning Chinese travellers. If they’re clear of Covid they are most welcome.
An over enthusiastic headline writer or or an alarming ‘click bait’ headline in the Guardian? Who exactly is “fearing a diplomatic backlash” apart from the journo?
There is no indication yet (per the Global Times) that the Chinese government is doing anything apart from having a whinge about those countries requiring negative Covid test results for travellers from China. What would they do anyway – demand similar tests on travellers into China? Fair enough, nobody could complain about that.
Nath
Re the DLP…. Santamaria’s vision of Australia was of an agrarian society. Small farms, small minds, big churches.
There is an argument that the philosophy of Santamaria (and Mannix) was heavily influenced by DeValera’s speech “The Ireland that we dreamed of”, which itself was a reflection of conservative European Catholicism.
https://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~jim/ruralvirtue.pdf
De Valera included the line “ A land whose countryside would be bright with cosy homesteads, whose fields and villages would be joyous with the sounds of industry, with the romping of sturdy children, the contest of athletic youths and the laughter of happy maidens, whose firesides would be forums for the wisdom of serene old age.”
De Valera’s critics call the speech “Comely maidens dancing at the crossroads”, which sums up Santamaria’s vision for Australia very neatly
I just watched Antony Beevor, whose book I am reading at present (v good so far), talk in this interview about the Russian history of using deliberate violence, including against civilians, and regardless of loss of life, as a terror tactic in war, to hopefully cower the enemy into submission.
Beevor documents the extensive history of this in the 20th century, dating back to horrendous Russian losses in WWI, and before then right back to the Mongol era. Politically, it is an unfortunate fact that Russia never really went through a renaissance. It shows in their army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvhI_mS1zx8
I was thinking that in this instance (Ukraine) the tactic has backfired. Once your enemy sees that you are liable to kill them anyway even if they surrender, what is the point of surrender? Putin has already said he intends to eliminate Ukraine as an independent state. Obviously most Ukrainians have worked this out. It isn’t just Zelensky being brave or a skilled leader. They see no other option.
Yet we have also seen that the Russian army is no longer big enough or strong enough to defeat completely defeat Ukraine either. So this war will go on.
In the end, looking at the history, I don’t see how Russia can win now. It isn’t true that Russia always grinds opponents down till it wins. They lost in the Russo Japanese war, WWI, the Russo Polish War and Afghanistan. Generally, after a major defeat or too long a stalemate without victory, they give up. The only question is, how long.
So I’m afraid if I were to make a new year’s prediction, it would be that the Ukraine – Russia war will drag on, Ukraine gradually recovering territory, till Russia withdraws or hangs onto Crimea only. I doubt it will end this year.
Interested in other views. I don’t like the idea of long wars. But I’m not optimistic this will be short.
On China and covid, there is good reason for a testing requirement. It isn’t just the high risk of infection. Without the information sharing on covid we have with other countries, there must be a high risk of unknown new variants.
Concur with you about Antony Beevor, Socrates. I heard him speak at the Sydney Writers Festival and “Stalingrad “ is a brilliant read.
Socrates
“ So I’m afraid if I were to make a new year’s prediction, it would be that the Ukraine – Russia war will drag on, Ukraine gradually recovering territory, till Russia withdraws or hangs onto Crimea only. I doubt it will end this year.
Interested in other views. I don’t like the idea of long wars. But I’m not optimistic this will be short.”
——————————————————————————————-
Agreed and I think I too have preferred a similar prognostication. There is an insufficient imperative at this stage to force Putin to withdraw as he still has millions of poorly trained targets to draw on within Russia. If 100k dead Russians so far in a war of choice is not enough to cause him to reconsider then what will?
Perhaps another major victory or three by Ukraine might hasten things a little (though this too will take time) but as things stand, I still suspect that economic deprivation within Russia coupled with increased filling of body bags over a sustained period of time is the most likely precursor to genuine peace talks. This might be expedited by overwhelming military weapons support from the USA or NATO for UKRAINE but this doesn’t appear likely at this stage. Thus the war will be extended.
Quasar
Yes I read Stalingrad too. This book is Russia Revolution and Civil War (1917-1921). Earlier era but similar themes are apparent.
unfrortunatlyhill was not a very good environment minister thats probaly whiy howard moved him to defence any way agree abbout the policy on chine is just to please Aspi evry country has had covid waves yet we triy and make an example out of China to be tricked in to believing america is still a supper power they could not even compete with the taliban which were a bunch of militents with old weapons
” University of Sydney constitutional law professor Anne Twomey, in an opinion piece for [the Age], said the campaign did not need to descend into fights about detail…
Under the proposed constitutional amendment, she argued any future law made within its scope would be open to change depending on who was in government and the community expectations of the day. The composition, function, powers and procedures of the Voice would also be determined by the parliament only if the referendum succeeded, she said.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/liberals-ask-for-serious-detail-on-voice-after-timeline-for-referendum-set-20230101-p5c9pp.html
This crapping on about the ”lack of detail” is just the Coalition cultivating FUD to prepare the ground for their inevitable decision to oppose.
wonder if earlwood has amoore relivant fitsgerald being an ambasada in 1970s is hardly a relivant source
Here we go againsays:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 7:34 pm
An anonymous subscriber to a forum on the internet versus Dr Stephen Fitzgerald
What next?
~~~~~
C@t is very influential in Labor politics. Her opinions have significant weight in the development of Labor policy.
Aaron newton says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 8:53 pm
unfrortunatlyhill was not a very good environment minister thats probaly whiy howard moved him to defence any way agree abbout the policy on chine is just to please Aspi evry country has had covid waves yet we triy and make an example out of China to be tricked in to believing america is still a supper power they could not even compete with the taliban which were a bunch of militents with old weapons
——————-
No one is making an example of China because after being locked up for so long we have know what variants are circulating.
According to Boerwar, China is exporting covid. What a way to welcome the new year.
What next from Boerwar?
AN
wonder if earlwood has amoore relivant fitsgerald being an ambasada in 1970s is hardly a relivant source
I think you should have a look at what he has been doing for the last 50 years
Steve777 – nah if you were going to run a voice scare campaign you’d go the compo angle as in this (the voice ) is just step 1, vote for this and your setting up step 3 compo to the indigenous population worth multi billions.
OC I think Aaron is a former Terrigals staffer – waiting for the return of Lord Voldemort.
The idea that Howard and Co would have been less hostile to indigenous causes if only they had a couple of indigenous leaders on their side telling them how right they were to deny the Stolen Generation and tell appalling lies about people’s backyards being at threat from native title after Mabo?
That must be among the worst takes ever seen on this site and that says a lot.
Indigenous people are not to blame for Howard and Co being dogwhistling shitheads, and it really does need to be remembered how self-hating a Liberal Party supporting indigenous person would have had to be in 1998 when the party had policies specifically hostile to Indigenous people. Whereas there’s no particular reason now why Indigenous people can’t be conservative Libs like everyone else, and the anti-Voice position of Price is not so different from a far left Indigenous person like Lidia Thorpe, so…
Aaron are you the one who was known as “The Tripotege “?
Arky says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 9:14 pm
The idea that Howard and Co would have been less hostile to indigenous causes if only they had a couple of indigenous leaders on their side telling them how right they were to deny the Stolen Generation and tell appalling lies about people’s backyards being at threat from native title after Mabo?
That must be among the worst takes ever seen on this site and that says a lot.
—————————————–
Howard and his government saw itself as a rejection of the Keating agenda and were hostile to indigenous causes because they were seen as Keating’s agenda and any politician will support causes pushed by their supporters and Howard saw Indigenous leaders as hostile to him and his government and that was why Noel Pearson tried to mend fences became he came to the realization that Howard was so hostile because he saw them as Labor and had no relationship with the indigenous community.
“Interested in other views. I don’t like the idea of long wars. But I’m not optimistic this will be short.””
hi Soc. Can’t dispute your analysis…unfortunately.
Overall i don’t see an end to this until at least the end of the Northern Summer. My suspicions are that the Ukrainian’s will try to exploit a hard, extended freeze this winter for an offensive in Luhansk via Kremmina / Svatove. Try to get the Russians to commit to blocking that with reinforcments.
If they can get the people and kit and conditions together the try a thunder run across Zaphoriza Olblast to the Azov Sea??
That would be the one the Russians fear the most as followed up with breaking the Kerch Bridge again i think that makes holding Crimea impossible for the Russians in the longer term.
Hard fighting this winter, a pause for the Spring Mud, and then more fighting for the Summer. All the while Putin’s position at home becomes more precarious.
The Chinese people en masse have caused Xi to lose face to a considerable degree over the massive mismanagement of the response to Covid. To go virtually overnight from draconian restrictions to ‘let ‘er rip’ and ‘you’re on your own now’ is not the mark of a leader in control.
Gone (at least temporarily) is the belligerent rhetoric telling the rest of the world how to conduct their relationships with China. The best the Global Times can mange wrt to countries imposing Covid testing on travellers from China is a whinge about perceived bias on the part of other governments. There is almost a plea for other countries not to discriminate against China.
If he is the Tripotege, there may shortly be a job going in a sweet shop in Burwood
Imacca
I can’t comment on the tactical details but yes if Ukraine cut through to the Sea of Azov it would be logistically disastrous for Russia in Crimea and all points west of the breakthrough (rest of Kherson, Zaphorizia etc).
The Kerch rail bridge is still not taking any trains. It looks compromised by the fire. That leaves the rail line west from Rostov through Melitopol towards Kherson, which also branches down to Crimea. If that were cut I don’t see how Russia could keep all the western and Crimea forces supplied as they are short of trucks.
Late Riser says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 7:40 pm
frednk @ #2156 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 4:27 pm
A very interesting discussion on disinformation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt3rrpVxO40&ab_channel=TheProblemWithJonStewart
Youtube can lead you to some interesting corners. Here is Rudd in Switzerland:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szAChpVvQuk&ab_channel=AsiaSociety
I know I’m a really sad case.
Big if – getting to the Sea of Azov Socrates.
Talk of the US providing Bradley fighting vehicles – but only talk atm. Still Ukraine getting back to the Azov sea would be the logical point for the US to impose a peace and end the war.
OC – any sightings of the Terrigal known as “The Cherub”?
Socrates at 8.32 pm and Cronus at 8.48 pm
Here are the comments of Andrey Kortunov published by independent Russian media 9 days before Putin launched his dreadful, fratricidal (to quote Marina Ovchinnikova, the journo who held up a placard on Russian TV) war:
“In Russia, there’s a very centralized system for making key foreign policy decisions, so only one person can give a conclusive answer to the question of whether there will be a war. I think — I would like to hope — that the threat of war is not as great as some of our Western colleagues from the journalistic and expert community are making it out to be.
It seems to me that there are several factors that make a war unlikely. Firstly, the Russian leadership has been saying for several months — not just weeks — that they aren’t going to fight and attack Ukraine. Of course, all of these statements form a specific background. If after this a war starts, then the image losses will be very large.
Secondly, it’s more or less clear what Russia stands to lose in the event of a war. There will be sanctions of a completely different degree that will affect the energy sector and the financial system, [and] perhaps the leadership of the country personally, which is talked about a lot in the West. In addition to sanctions, of course, this means the end of the Minsk agreements — and now matter how you look at it these agreements are still a major diplomatic victory for Russia and for President Putin personally. In addition, it’s clear that in this case there won’t be a repeat of the “Crimean scenario,” since Russia would have to face a hostile population. If [Russia] doesn’t occupy the whole country (which, by all appearances, it doesn’t have the resources for) then the part [of Ukraine] that remains outside of Russian control will create permanent and very serious problems. Western weapons will go there, western money — generally speaking, it’s clear that in this case Russia will lose. And what it will gain remains unclear to me.
There’s also a third argument: I think that if such a task [starting a hot war] had been set, then it would have been met in completely different ways. Look at how the operation in Kazakhstan was carried out — very quickly, within a few hours. Everything was done without too much pomp — and the 2014 Crimean operation was the same. A modern level of mobility — including [the mobility] of the Russian Armed Forces — doesn’t require the accumulation of troops over the course of several months in order to finally get ready and begin an attack. This is archaic — typical of 1914: a mobilization, troops traveling by rail, and that sort of thing.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/02/14/it-s-a-chain-reaction
One of Kortunov’s colleagues wrote after the war started that they were wrong because they were right; meaning, all the negatives they identified existed, they just did not understand how completely Putin and his very small inner circle ignored the negatives.
It is one thing to ignore the predictable negatives before a disaster, and another to do so after 10 months, following several reversals, after Russia advanced on the battlefield only in the summer. But there is a persistent, dogmatic pattern of disregarding reality.
Regarding the three points on which Kortunov based his wishful thinking in mid-Feb:
1) the image losses were discounted by the Kremlin as large but negligible, because the only audience that counts is the Russian one; this assessment has been correct, but the domestic situation has been compounded by the disturbance of the mobilisation. The Ukrainian spy chief Budanov has said another Russian mobilisation is imminent, but time will tell whether this occurs, and, if so, with what consequences.
2) objectively the geopolitical losses for Russia have been as Kortunov expected (and as Lavrov would most probably have warned), the sustainable gains have been negligible, but there are two other factors that were not given enough attention: first, the growing role of deluded nationalists who believe this is an existential fight for Mother Russia, not just the many crackpots but some who had been part of the westernising elite; and second, the addiction of Putin’s regime to living in a war zone as a new repressive prop.
3) the third point overestimated the competence of the Russian military, but the final comment on the war preparations being “archaic — typical of 1914” is very accurate.
A complicated list experiment analysis indicated that Russian support for Putin’s war was initially barely above 50%, at around 53%. For the details see:
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/116770/1/europpblog_2022_04_06_do_russians_tell_the_truth_when_they_say_they.pdf
That would have dropped significantly since then but there are no urgent implications. After all, support in Australia for the 2003 invasion of Iraq was little more, at most.
Even if 80% of Russians are now opposed to Putin’s war (a possibility) that will not stop it. There needs to be a political process within Russia to do that, which is far from evident. So far there is no sign of either economic deprivation or dead soldiers leading to politically influential opposition to Putin’s war. Remember that the dead soldiers are disproportionately from the non-Russian, very poor areas of the south and east, a long way from Moscow. Even if another mobilisation leads to more public protests, this will not in itself be a sign that Putin’s war has become unsustainable politically.
Lack of optimism about Putin’s war ending soon is accurate, particularly for internal Russian reasons, but also because the US may have decided that ending the war soon is not in its interests, particularly after the mid-term elections. Hypothetically, it would be possible for the US and Russia to sort out a deal that involves Russia leaving from everywhere except Crimea, which is what might eventually happen after much more bloodshed, but there is no momentum on either side for that to occur.
Never underestimate the capacity of rational people with absolute power who have made terrible mistakes to continue a destructive course, instead of admitting failure.
Which one was The Cherub?
Lars
I agree it is a big “if” Ukraine getting to the Sea of Azov. The Russians would be mad not to have it heavily defended. I am only saying it would be decisive if they did as imacca suggested.
That is why I fear this will be long and drawn out. Neither side can afford to surrender, Russia seems incapable of defeating Ukraine forces with HiMARS, but Ukraine forces do not have much heavy assault weapons to take ground with.
A grim NY 2022/23 for Ukrainians and everyday Russians alike, thanks to Putin’s bloody-mindedness:
Russian KIA Dec 31: 710
Russian KIA Jan 1: 760
Total Russian KIA: 106,720
Daily average Russian KIA: 342.1
This can end for Russians any time they like. The world should work together to bring them to that choice sooner than later.
Cherie Burton was “The Cherub” OC.
Agree that Socrates. Who wins a war of attrition then – the stronger economy / industrial power?
The inconsistency with testing Chinese travellers is that there are currently high numbers in Korea and Japan as well and the newest and apparently more nasty variants are taking over in the US and UK. So why no checks for those places of origin.
One thing Scotties lot did right was a quick closure of flights from China, but then they did nothing about flights from Europe and the US when the virus quickly spread there.
Can understand it being seen as a political not a health protection decision.
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 9:37 pm:
“ Still Ukraine getting back to the Azov sea would be the logical point for the US to impose a peace and end the war.”
============
US intentions re the ultimate extent of Ukrainian counter-offensives they will support will be decisive. Can anyone here point us toward any articles that indicate where the US is most likely thinking of drawing the line?
No, but I was thinking of Reba today when Aaron was telling us the post politics careers of some of the Terrigals.
Is her lobbying consultancy still going?
We were talking earlier of the best ever environment minister but I would like to nominate Reba as the worst ever health minister
Aaron has gone quiet now OC.
As the Terrigals say one acquittal and our Lord Voldemort will return!
Dr Doolittle
Thanks, very interesting. Kortunov’s analysis makes perfect sense to me. He must have been a frustrated man to realise that and be ignored.
Sadly we are in close agreement on the conclusions and likely outcome.
On this:
“ 3) the third point overestimated the competence of the Russian military, but the final comment on the war preparations being “archaic — typical of 1914” is very accurate.”
There is a strong sense of dejavu. I have just been reading the section of Beevor’s new book that talks about WWI in the lead up to the revolution. Very familiar, complete with bad training, corrupt officers, and poorly equipped troops.