New year miscellany (open thread)

Two minor bits of federal polling news, a change in party representation in the House of Representatives, and looming electoral events in the Northern Territory and Victoria.

‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:

• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.

• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.

• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.

• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.

• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.

• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,056 comments on “New year miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Aaron Newton @ 9.33pm (friday)
    Aaron, I admire your ALP partisanship, but it is from a very low standard to suggest that “Minns comes across a lot better than Daley”.
    Let’s see in ten weeks’ time.

  2. Tiapan!

    Am I hearing correctly? “expert” on ABC NSW 24 saying one reason the Taipan is being replaced with Blackhawks its that the Taipan can’t be fitted with a door mounted machine gun to protect disembarking troops.. ie no cover fire.

    If this is correct why wasn’t this in the supply brief / specification.. Seriously Australia should shut down the entire defence force & procurement & start again.. before spending 1 more cent on the idiots that run the show now.
    Years of totally wasted money.

  3. There is only one Party that supports the Voice, Makarrata and Treaty.

    I had rather hoped that the Greens would manage to cohere. Instead they are now officially all over the place, with further splintering as we post.

    The Greens Voice Kama Sutra:

    1. The Greens support the Voice referendum. Six years ago.
    2. The referendum is ‘not worth the money’.
    3. The Greens will not support the No campaign.
    4. SH-Y announces that she would vote ‘Yes’.
    5. The Greens will only support the referendum IF the government implements all the recommendations of the RCIDIC and the Stolen Generations RC and that demand was accompanied by a firm ‘maybe’ or was that an ‘even if’…?
    6. The Greens will not support the referendum unless negotiations for the Treaty and the Makarrata have been ‘progressed’. ‘Progressed’ is not defined.
    7. Waters announces that the Greens do NOT have a ‘formal’ position but that the formal position that does not exist nevertheless includes that there must be ‘progress’ on the Voice, Makarrata and the Treaty if the Greens are to support the referendum.
    8. Bandt announces that he wants a Treaty ‘now’. (One assume that this will be negotiated on behalf of Australia’s one million Indigenous peoples by the Greens’ BlakGreens.)
    9. The Greens will NOT support the Voice Referendum unless the Government passes legislation implementing UNDRIP.
    10. South Australian Greens introduce, and vote for, a motion supporting the Voice Referendum. The Original Greens and the BlakGreens and the Price/Mundines Not Greens are at each others’ throats. The Life of Brian refers.
    11. The Greens support Invasion Day Rallies against the Voice.

  4. Rex you should take up a part time gig as a comedian. Perhaps it would be funny of these matters weren’t so serious. Rex wants Labor to give it’s MPs a conscience vote on the Voice i.e. the freedom to vote “No” in order to provide cover for the Greens partyroom to split. The Greens are in turmoil and irretrievably split. Bandt has gone to ground in 2023 and is hiding from the media. He’s busy dealing with this shitshow desperately trying to hold the Victorian Greens party together. What a farce!!

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