New year miscellany (open thread)

Two minor bits of federal polling news, a change in party representation in the House of Representatives, and looming electoral events in the Northern Territory and Victoria.

‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:

• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.

• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.

• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.

• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.

• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.

• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,057 comments on “New year miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 81 of 82
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  1. The NSW Liberal Party won’t confirm whether Premier Dominic Perrottet told them about the Nazi costume during his preselection vetting process in 2010.
    They also won’t confirm if an investigation is underway, telling the ABC “the nomination process is confidential”.
    In the past, this process has included a panel interview by the Nomination Review Committee and in some cases has involved a third-party investigation.

  2. [‘Labor leader Chris Minns has refused to call for Dominic Perrottet’s resignation after the premier revealed he wore a Nazi costume to his 21st birthday, saying it was up to the people of NSW to make up their own minds on the bombshell delivered two months before a state election.

    Speaking on the Central Coast on Saturday to announce a $3.7 million election commitment towards improving soccer facilities in the safe Labor seat of Wyong, Minns said he did not believe the revelations would affect the result of the upcoming election on March 25.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-apology-was-sincere-minns-says-voters-will-decide-perrottet-s-fate-20230114-p5cchs.html

    Minns has deftly handled Perrottet’s 21st gig faux pas. Going overboard would’ve been a mistake. Andrew thinks he’s got only five buckets, but there appears to be more to Minns than meets the eye. And as suggested previously, Labor should hone in on the internecine warfare being publicly fought in the NSW Tory Party. Labor will form government on March 25.

  3. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:10 pm
    Dr Johnsays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    I know a previous lecturer at your old alma mater Swinburne whom did very well with his female students.
    _____________________
    Who cares. Do you really think anyone is that interested in who you continually claim to know.

    +++++++++++++++++++++
    In a post earlier today you principally spoke about your non fitting swimming togs.
    Who on the planet cares?
    My case rests.

  4. Mavis @ 8.49
    “Minns has deftly handled Perrottet’s 21st gig faux pas. Going overboard would’ve been a mistake. Andrew thinks he’s got only five buckets, but there appears to be more to Minns than meets the eye. And as suggested previously, Labor should hone in on the internecine warfare being publicly fought in the NSW Tory Party. Labor will form government on March 25.”

    Absolutely agree.

  5. I have never really paid attention to Human Rights Watch as it used to come across as basically owned by the Saudis. Becoming pro China anti India (if this is so) would probably indicate a change of funding masters.

  6. isnt richardson basickly eerelivent in labor yet didnt along with the unions help to install minns im suprised sky still thinks his credable he did give us obead whichlead to the nsw labor party just recovering under minns how ever his links with the old guard such as secord are notgreat then again minns is labors best leader since folelymckay may have been beter campaigner

  7. minns must be doing somthing his disaplind media stratigy means he might be still close to Walt secord who lead nsw labors media campaign his advise was stick to the mesige and focus on a few key ishues secord mentiond toles education cost of living and health education

  8. secord was dumped from the upper house but he clearly seems to be a close friend of minns and he is good with getting media including 2 gb plus using not going on the attack also makes sence

  9. Temporary end of the heat in Adelaide where the temperature has dropped from 40 to 20 in 5 hours. Mild tomorrow then 2 more hot days.

  10. i dont see what focusing on a few ishues is a ggood thing it show disaplin buy not getting distractd buy the pockies thought bubble labor is not wedged on this perrottit does notbackng from his party room he will not get cabenit to consider it is clearly a stunt to distract us from liberal party ceruption yes mckay is ggone

  11. wonder how matt kean will go as opposition leader i assume if he is allowed to implement his own policies he could moore of a threat to labor then perrottit being able to attracked modderit voters minns is safe he is a long time party member former staffer to the last government if Earlwood wanted the party to clear out the old guard i think Adam searles mate michael daley would be the first to go he was labors worst ever opposition leader was a minister in the old government has made litle impact as shadow aterney and has been in politics since 2005 but some how compaired to minns some how is the bad old days daley needs to retire

  12. it is not actulally true that labor needs to clean p its act from the bad old days minns has he forced the last remaining mps with tripodie nich lalich and also shaquiott moslemane to retire labor still need candadates in riverstone and fairfield this is labors best leadership since 2018

  14. to all those suporting it i have not heard a single minister other then rob stokes back it no minister plus speaking of perrottits government off the remaining ministers excluding ghazard retiring the tallint on the liberal party is prity low minns has a team with expirenced tallent and strong performers such as prue carr ryan park graham houssos mookhey perottit has sarah mitchel nats maybi ward becaus of smiths effort but has low profile it would be hard to name the key members of perrottits cabenit with elliott retiring

  15. Interesting. Not familiar with 6 News

    #BREAKING Senior NSW minister tells Channel 7 that Dominic Perrottet’s Nazi uniform admission is ‘just the beginning’ | #6NewsAU

  16. no body seems to have noticed the fact that not a single mp inthe liberal party other then the retiring rob stokes has backed the cashlis gaming card stunt apart from the premier the deputty premier and elliott apose it

  17. the argument that its a wedge and perrottit will win on this is sillyhe has not moved to make the card party policy because he knows cabenit and the party room willapose it that is whiy he is using the herald to atempt to presure them to forfce cabenit to back it when he knows the cabenit dont will not support it

  18. BREAKING: The NSW Government is tonight denying it’s in turmoil as more leaks reveal Dominic Perrottet faces an uphill battle against his own party — the Premier, weakened, holding on for dear life as the election looms. NSW votes in just 70 days. Via 7 News Sydney

  20. Aaron newton @ #4016 Saturday, January 14th, 2023 – 9:32 pm

    no body seems to have noticed the fact that not a single mp inthe liberal party other then the retiring rob stokes has backed the cashlis gaming card stunt apart from the premier the deputty premier and elliott apose it

    Perrottet simply doesn’t have the numbers to get it through after the election, should he win.

  22. was it telling that the little known facelis man allex hawke appeared on nine news claiming perrottit has his full suport and saying he did the right thin in admiting mistake this is usaly a sign that in fact the opposit is true and hawke does not support him he leads the centre right which is at war with perrotits faction

  23. Alex Hawke has pledged his “full support” for Perrottet, but he’s not a member of Perrottet’s ministry. It’s when a Minister pledges their full support that Perrottet has to worry.

  24. yes but allex hawke leads the centre right the faction david elliott is part of hawkes closist friend in state parliment Ray williams attacked hills shier and liberal mp robyn preston over the egzecutives desition to sackhis a majority of his factions cowncilors foor perotits to replace them i dought hawke is acting on his own he has several loil mps in state parliament as well as federal

  25. alixhhawke has a long history ofdestabilizing past leaders including being acused of leaking against brogdon when yung liberal president he also worked on morrisons numbers whileclaiming to turnbull he had there suport and misleading dutton sometimes federal mps are used to undermine state coleagues

  29. funny that alex hawke might actualy be nsw liberals best power brocker un like matt kean he forced all his picks in the federal election through with morrisons help Ray williams who has been under mining the government foor months is allowed to stay in kelly vill desbite being a bad mp and threatind to blow up perrottit when he ran in his seat plus farlow in the upper house

  30. maybi hawke gets his way because his faction hasimformation that would damage the government Williams was a minister foor two years and yet he is allowed to stay in parliament and no upper house mps part of hawkes faction have been removed while the other towo factions loose seats

  32. at least unlike kean and perottit hawke can actualy get his candadates up kean could not get any one up desbite suposidly leading the dominant faction

  34. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 9:37 pm
    BREAKING: The NSW Government is tonight denying it’s in turmoil as more leaks reveal Dominic Perrottet faces an uphill battle against his own party — the Premier, weakened, holding on for dear life as the election looms. NSW votes in just 70 days. Via 7 News Sydney
    ”

    Lars and nath
    Is DoPe leadership “embattled ” yet or not?

    Don’t you think John Howard should not endorsed him so early?

  35. Leonardo of 6 News only recently turned 15 (he was excited that he could legally watch MA movies). Here’s the blurb from their website:
    https://www.6newsau.com
    “6 News was founded by Leonardo Puglisi in 2019 as HMV Local News, covering local news from across the Hawthorn District in Melbourne, with weekly news bulletins on our YouTube Channel.​
    But at the beginning of 2020, we rebranded as 6 News & moved to focusing on national & international stories, launching accounts on Facebook, Twitter & Instagram, and uploading our original content on YouTube everyday.
    Young journalists soon joined our team from all over Australia & even in the US, making our team larger than some regional TV services & helping us bring you 24/7 coverage (read more here)
    Our mission isn’t to “take down” the already existing mainstream media or anything like that – it’s to bring you a genuine alternative, made possible by the younger generation.
    No matter your politics – and no matter your location – you will always find unbiased news from our reporters and uncensored views from our guests – right here, on 6 News.”

  36. ”
    Aaron newtonsays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 9:43 pm
    was it telling that the little known facelis man allex hawke appeared on nine news claiming perrottit has his full suport
    ”

    O Oh. It reminds me of the Morrison statement” I am ambitious for him “. 🙂

  39. ”
    Arkysays:
    Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 9:05 pm
    I have never really paid attention to Human Rights Watch as it used to come across as basically owned by the Saudis. Becoming pro China anti India (if this is so) would probably indicate a change of funding masters.
    ”

    You are on to something Arky because their criticism of Middle East dictatorships and China has been lukewarm at best.

    Also, let me tell you a secret of what Modi government did to them.
    The government stopped their special entitlements, which were given to them by previous government, and made them to vacate a government owned building, which they were occupying rent free in an important location in New Delhi.

  41. ”
    Granny Annysays:
    Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 12:23 am
    I had a look at the West Australians obituaries and death notices to see if Cardinal Pell got a mention.

    Nothing.

    How odd?
    ”

    West Australian might have thought Why bother about obituaries when his death is main news

  42. Francis is a forgiving soul:

    [‘His [Pell’s] funeral preparations were overshadowed by revelations the cardinal was the author of an anonymous memo that branded Pope Francis’ pontificate a catastrophe.’]

    The sooner Pell’s remains are interred in the crypt in St Mary’s, the better. Those abused by his negligence may then
    experience at least a modicum of peace.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-14/cardinal-george-pell-funeral-held-at-the-vatican/101856356

  44. Why the Dutch apology for slavery leaves a bitter taste in my mouth

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/14/dutch-apology-slavery-reparation-caribbean?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16737101004329&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fcommentisfree%2F2023%2Fjan%2F14%2Fdutch-apology-slavery-reparation-caribbean

  46. Ven,
    You do know the difference though, don’t you? America invaded Iraq to get rid of a monster (with a side benefit of the oil). Putin IS the monster with the oil who invaded an innocent, independent country because he thinks he owns it.

  48. ‘Ven says:
    Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 2:31 am

    Why the Dutch apology for slavery leaves a bitter taste in my mouth

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/14/dutch-apology-slavery-reparation-caribbean?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16737101004329&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fcommentisfree%2F2023%2Fjan%2F14%2Fdutch-apology-slavery-reparation-caribbea‘
    ——————————-
    Thanks. Good article, IMO.

  49. C@tmomma@ 7.25pm
    Winston Hills sits on a 5.1% margin and has the 7th lowest Government margin. It is a vital win for the ALP, if they hope to form government. I would suggest it is a must win seat.
    I would like to share your enthusiasm for flipping Terrigal, too, A big ask as that was the portion of the Robertson electorate which held firm for Useless Lucy, in May.

  50. Macca RB @ #4021 Sunday, January 15th, 2023 – 7:04 am

    C@tmomma@ 7.25pm
    Winston Hills sits on a 5.1% margin and has the 7th lowest Government margin. It is a vital win for the ALP, if they hope to form government. I would suggest it is a must win seat.
    I would like to share your enthusiasm for flipping Terrigal, too, A big ask as that was the portion of the Robertson electorate which held firm for Useless Lucy, in May.

    We hope to pick up Terrigal with a wave election. Otherwise we’re happy to eat away at the margin and get close for next time.

    You’ve also got to remember that the seat across the water from ours, Mackellar, elected Teal, Sophie Scamps. Our candidate is a male in that mould. A member of the local Terrigal Board Riders and a Physiotherapist. 🙂

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