Time for the monthly assembly of New South Wales state election news, starting with some none-too-timely opinion poll snippets before moving on to a meaty stew of preselection:
• Roy Morgan published a somewhat dated poll last week conducted at an unspecified time in November, encompassing a phone and online sample of 1234. It had Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 5%.
• On November 17, Max Maddison of The Australian reported that a statewide poll conducted for a “major industry group” that asked not to be identified had Labor on 40% of the primary vote, up from 33.3% at the 2019 election, and the Coalition at 37%, which entailed the Liberals holding steady from 32.0% while the Nationals tumbled from 9.6% to 4%. The Greens were on 9% and One Nation 6%, respectively compared with 9.6% and 1.1% (from a small number of seats contested in One Nation’s case). Chris Minns had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, while Domonic Perrottet was on 39% and 47%. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1000 from November 8 to 10.
• RedBridge has published polls conducted from September 23 to October 3 from seats with prospects for teal independents, from which the topline results suggested they were struggling to poll clear of Labor in Manly, North Shore, Pittwater and Wakehurst, but would be placed to take it right up to the Liberals at the final count if they could make it there. However, they also suggested independents were starting from too far behind in Lane Cove and the regional seat of Oxley. When it was put to respondents that the independents might bear comparison to Zali Steggall, Kylea Tink, Sophie Scamps and Caz Heise, they landed in first place on the primary vote in Manly and close to it everywhere else except Lane Cove.
Now to a thicket of Liberal preselection disputes, the recurring theme of which is gender balance:
• Against a backdrop of defeats for women preselection candidates (on which much more below), Liberal factional leaders spent the Christmas period on a messy re-engineering of the Legislative Council ticket that reduced three incumbents from what had previously been an all-male ticket, Matthew Mason-Cox, Lou Amato and Shayne Mallard, to unwinnable positions. Mason-Cox is the President of the Legislative Council and Mallard is one of the Liberals’ two gay or lesbian members, a point noted by skeptics of the deal as a win for diversity. The ticket will now be led by Natasha Maclaren-Jones, who is in fact presently in the middle of an eight-year term, which she will cut short in pursuit of a renewed mandate. Presumably the deal also had something to say about who would fill the vacancy to serve out the remaining four years of her existing term, although news reportage has been silent on this point. Also coming on to the ticket are Rachel Merton, a ministerial staffer to Maclaren-Jones, former head of government affairs at KPMG Australia and daughter of former Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, and Susan Carter, law lecturer at the University of Sydney. Merton and Carter are on the right, while Maclaren-Jones has reportedly shifted to the right from the centre-right, who are less than pleased with the whole arrangement. As brokered between Dominic Perrottet, conservative leader Damien Tudehope and moderate Matt Kean, the deal initially favoured former Deniliquin school teacher Jean Haynes over Merton, which also prompted a rebellion from the latter’s backers in the right. The deal’s second incarnation with Merton replacing Haynes won the required support from the state executive with help from an intervention by Peter Dutton.
• Not countenanced by the factions in their negotiations over the Legislative Council ticket was Melanie Gibbons, who was defeated for preselection in her lower house seat of Holsworthy last month by Tina Ayyad, former Liverpool deputy mayor and wife of current mayor Ned Mannou. Gibbons was persuaded not to pursue designs on the seat of Hughes at the May federal election in part with an offer of a cabinet position from Dominic Perrottet, who feared the party might lose Holsworthy in her absence. However, his backing proved insufficient to save her career via a seat in the upper house.
• The Liberal candidate for the northern beaches seat of Pittwater, which will be vacated with the retirement of senior minister Rob Stokes, will be Rory Amon, a moderate-aligned family lawyer and Northern Beaches councillor. Amon emerged as the only candidate after two women fell by the wayside: the aforementioned Natasha Maclaren-Jones, who withdrew from her bid to move to the seat from the upper house after recognising she did not have the numbers to defeat Amon, and Claire Longley, EY consultant and daughter of former member Jim Longley, who had not consistently been a financial party member for the required period and failed to win an exemption. Matt Kean was censured by the local branch after calling on party leaders to have a say over the preselection rather than it being left to the “old, out of touch, misogynist men” of the local membership. The party hierarchy’s concern that the seat might go the way of Warringah, Wentworth, North Sydney and Mackellar in the absence of a female candidate were underscored by a reported an email from Amon to state party president Maria Kovacic in which he denounced internal polling showing him with too low a primary vote to retain the seat as “push polling”. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reported Amon rejected an offer from moderates to exchange places with upper house MP and Metropolitan Roads Minister Natalie Ward. Amon faces opposition from independent Jacqui Scruby, an environmental lawyer and climate change business advisor who has the backing of Climate 200.
• Natalie Ward also came up empty-handed in her bid to succeed the retiring Jonathan O’Dea in Davidson in late November, despite backing from Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean. Ward was defeated in the preselection ballot by Matt Cross, head of government relations at the George Institute for Global Health and former staffer to Mike Baird and Barry O’Farrell, by 95 votes to 85. The Sydney Morning Herald reported Cross had won favour by pushing for small-scale nuclear reactors in every community, although he is factionally aligned with the moderates. Kean said he was “devastated” at Ward’s defeat and called Cross’s reactor plan a “fantasy”.
• The Liberal preselection for Parramatta made headlines after nominee Tanya Raffoul, chief-of-staff to Transport Minister David Elliott, claimed party members had told her she should “settle down and have children” and was “too assertive” to be a member of parliament. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reported that Raffoul faced “several right-wing candidates”, whose faction dominated the local branches, the front-runner among whom would appear to be lawyer Katie Mullens.
• In Riverstone, to be vacated with the retirement of Kevin Conolly, the Liberal preselection was won by Mohit Kumar, who holds a management position at Macquarie Bank, ahead of female rival Reena Jethi, The Hills Shire councillor and former teacher, by 98 votes to 68.
• The failure of women to win preselection for the Liberals stands in contrast to the Nationals, who have lately endorsed local mayor Peta Pinson to take on Leslie Williams in Port Macquarie after her defection from the Nationals to the Liberals; former Country Women’s Association president Annette Turner in Barwon and Edward River mayor Peta Betts in Murray, whose respective members Roy Butler and Helen Dalton have quit Shooters Fishers and Farmers to sit as independents (more on that below); Tanya Thompson, electorate officer to outgoing member Stephen Bromhead, in Myall Lakes; and former Snowy Valleys councillor Adrianna Benjamin in Wagga Wagga, held by independent Joe McGirr. Lachlan Leeming of the Daily Telegraph reported last week that the Nationals were warning the Liberals off running in Wagga Wagga, arguing the party’s brand remains damaged locally by the Daryl Maguire affair.
Further on the Coalition preselection front:
• The preselection for the safe Liberal seat of Castle Hill has developed into a saga to rival the party’s damaging multi-electorate deadlock ahead of the federal election. The incumbent, Transport Minister David Elliott, announced his intention to retire in October after recognising he could not retain preselection after the redistribution transferred right-controlled branches into the seat. That appeared to leave the way open for the right-backed Noel McCoy, Norton Rose Fulbright partner and former ministerial adviser. However, the party’s candidate vetting committee has blocked McCoy’s nomination over his opposition to abortion and the Berejiklian government’s COVID lockdowns, despite the committee’s ambit ostensibly being limited to probity issues. The party administration reacted by scrapping the preselection process altogether, also locking out rival conservative contender Rajiv Chaudhri, Spicy Bean Cafe founder and director of domestic violence charity the Lisa Harnum Foundation, who was deemed to have broken party rules over the use of promotional material. This could potentially open the door for Elliott to stay on, notwithstanding that he has delivered his valedictory speech, but he remains encumbered by the local dominance of the right and his own alignment with the centre-right. Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that another contender is Mark Hodges, The Hills Shire deputy mayor.
• The Liberal preselection for Vaucluse was won by Kellie Sloane, former television reporter, ahead of Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor, and Roanne Knox, former management consultant and founder of a teen fashion label.
• Other endorsed Liberal candidates include Jordan Lane, the 28-year-old mayor of Ryde, to succeed retiring Liberal member Victor Dominello in Ryde; Kylie von Muenster, speech pathologist and law firm office manager, in Labor-held marginal Coogee; and former test cricket bowler Nathan Bracken, who earlier ran as an independent in Dobell at the 2013 election and for Central Coast Council in 2017, in Labor-held The Entrance.
Other preselection news:
• Labor’s recent candidates include Terry Campese, former captain of NRL club the Canberra Raiders and state-of-origin representative, to run in Monaro against Nichole Overall, who retained John Barilaro’s old seat for the Nationals at a by-election in February, and Canada Bay councillor Julia Little in Drummoyne, where John Sidoti has abandoned notions of running as an independent after being forced out of the Liberal Party following an adverse ruling from ICAC. However, Labor’s initial nominee for Ryde, local doctor Francisco Valencia, withdrew earlier this month after an apprehended violence order was sought against him over an alleged domestic incident.
• Orange MP Phil Donato and Barwon MP Roy Butler have quit Shooters Fishers and Farmers, leaving the party with none of the three lower house seats it won in 2019. This follows Donato’s and Butler’s failure, along with upper house member Mark Banasiak, to have a new executive committee replace the one dominated by supporters of the party’s longest serving parliamentarian, Robert Borsak. The trio had called on Borsak to resign after he said during in parliamentary debate that he “should have got up and clocked” Helen Dalton, who won Murray for the party in 2022 and resigned from it in March.
• In the teal independent realm, North Sydney’s Independent has endorsed candidates for North Shore and Lane Cove. They are, respectively, Helen Conway, former corporate lawyer and head of the Workplace Gender Equality Agency, and Victoria Davidson, who runs a podiatry business with her husband, to run in Lane Cove against senior front-bencher Anthony Roberts, who may be regretting his decision to brandish a lump of coal in parliament in 2017. Manly candidate Joeline Hackman, founder of the Northern Beaches War on Waste community group, has official backing from Climate 200, as does the aforementioned Jacqui Scruby in Pittwater. Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan has been rated “likely” to win the endorsement of community group Wakehurst’s Independent by one media source, and described as “favourite at unbackable odds” to win the seat if he runs by another.
• Former Liberal official and IT businessman Matthew Camenzuli has formed Choice 200 to fund “true-blue” independents to take on senior Liberals. Camenzuli says the candidates will campaign on “cost of living, housing and energy security”, although his main beef is plainly with a Liberal Party preselection process that prompted him to take legal action against the party amid its preselection stand-off ahead of the federal election, in which senior figures including Scott Morrison took over the process to protect incumbents from preselection challenges.
The real story off elliott is that he can not find a seat because his faction leader Alix hawke chose to save back bencher Ray williams who must be a moore loil member of hawkes group desbite his being a poor mp he was briefly disabilities minister mccoy might apeel the right wont take it well if elliott is installed desbite elliott lacking branch support wonder if the old right under clarke are gaining suport with kyle cutasis re election to state egzecutive
also wonderwhat will happen with labor in fairfield and cabramata nick lalich and zangari are retiring
Also wondder if ward in kiama facing police charges will run he could retire and atempt to preselect his mate paul Ell in the seat as he is a liberal numbers man if elliott is allowed to run in carsillhill it woill be an inbaresment to perotits brother charles and tudehope who were reportidly pushing mccoy
Interesting, more good news for Chris Minns and the NSW state Labor party…
Well, the pandemic response worked well for the Labor government of Victoria at the latest state election, in spite of all that demented brouhaha from media propagandists. If the Libs did such a stellar job (as the same media tell us they did) they should be returned, but everything suggests that the People of NSW have had enough of the Coalition in power in the state.
Are the voters becoming de-sensitized from the media propaganda?… It’s possible and the coming NSW state election will be a further test of that!
Seems that way it will most likely be a narow alp victory like 1995 how ever tthe liberals are saying two differnt things on environment in the sity seatsyyou have matt kean talking abbout climate change and his sttunt of 70 persent renewable targit with no detail while as in the west to triy and hold penrith and hawkesbury perrottit is saying people before plants how ever the dam wall stunt does not seem to be working as stuart ayres has been invizable since he was sacked
this is what Shortin was acused of in 22019 plus keans atempt to be the new modderit face was under mind buyjhim now saying he could imbrace nucliar energy to get 2gb and sky on side
Is it usually this chaotic for liberal selections in NSW? Or is it just that there is juwt more focus on it now given the Morrison shenanigans of recent past?
Any poll that has the Liberals steady and the Nationals dropping over half their vote has serious credibility issues in my opinion.
It’s a difficult one. I have no doubt there will be a swing to the Labour party in Sydney for two reasons, areas that had harsher lockdowns during covid and the shambles that is the train services. Unfortunately, both those issues will concentrate votes in already Labor voting areas. Maybe Labor don’t need a primary vote in the forties, but they may well do.
On the other side of the coin, there are enough seats where the problems above will likely see them lose enough seats to make majority Government impossible, regardless of whether or not the Teals are as successful in the Federal election.
Some recent State elections have seen big late swings that seem to be swing voters that don’t like minority Governments. I reckon that’s some chance of happening here as well.
Yes the teels did not do well in state elections but keans pitch to be the modderit face of the liberals was weakind when he said on 2gb he would consider nucliar energy he seems to be changing his position based on the audience plus the liberals have a different messige surrounding the dam wall perottit said people over plants how ever the dam wall debate does not seem to interest any one in penrith
Re Riverstone Fairfield and Cabramatta preselections outstanding the later 2 not called yet. Some with the national executive ballot if necessary on 23/12 I have not heard the results yet.. forget which seats with n/e will check later. Results are probably available as well now
“ If the Libs did such a stellar job (as the same media tell us they did) …”
Alpo, Gladys was ‘The Woman Who Saved Australia’, doncha know? 🙂
Natalie Ward emulates Natalie Wood: a stellar career, abruptly sunk.
“Cross had won favour by pushing for small-scale nuclear reactors in every community”
Every home should have one!
A sure-fire winner …
If Natalie Ward emulates Natalie Wood, who plays Robert Wagner and Christopher Walken?
My take I don’t see how the libs can retain Parramatta East Hills and Penrith. There are many more seats where the result is uncertain eg Riverstone . Holsworthy.Twèed. Monaro. The Teals or independents have chances in Willoughby North Shore. Manly Wakehurst and Pittwater.
Part 1
The lib/nats combined primary vote under 40% its over for them
Besides Tania Mihailuk I do not see any of the current independents losing. This includes the 3 ex sff independents. Labor will not drop any seats. Most likely the greens hold their seats with Labor having a long shot chance in.Balmain.
Part 2
The two Scandal seats where the sitting mps have been suspended. Damage the liberal brand make it hard for a endorsed lib to win even more so if either current mp contests. I expect Labor to win one of the 2 seats.
Part 3
With opv the party with the highest primary vote is in the box seat. The opinion polls are suggesting a 6% swing to Labor and that Labor outpolls the liberals on primary votes. All through the electoral wins of 2011 2015 and 2019 the reverse is the case
Part 4
Opv allows preferences to be directed also I would suggest Labor and the greens are best placed to do this. This helps the ex sff independents and teals and independents on the north shore
Part 6
East Hills has proven very stubborn to shift and the local Federal results were not ideal. Penrith had the benefit of the Ayres carve out from the COVID restrictions which large parts of the west copped. The locals might reward Ayres for that.
There are other seats up for grabs but the remainder for the most part favour the liberals and nats. The result can vary between a narrow alp win. In majority to a alp landslide on par with the the libs 2011 result
Ayres is also scandal ridden due to helping Barilaro. In
East Hills the result is almost line ball on the new boundaries 0.1% liberal but with a swing to Labor and Tania Mihailuk’s influence in suppressing the alp vote by at least 300 gone. I think the l
Think the liberals actually need to improve their vote
To win a hard ask
Mick -the more you talk up the ALPs chances in east hills doesn’t make it happen. Is till have t been paid in part or whole for your ridiculous psephological overreach in 15/19 where you had the ALp winning everything up to and including Davidson.
The most recent Roy Morgan has 2PP at 52/48 ALP – ie a 4pc swing from ‘19. Tell me on your bell curve what you will win on this. The answer is East Hills and Penrith -and I’m reasonably confident you don’t win either.
So where does that leave you.? Before you start, look over your shoulder at seats you are now defending like Leppington, Heathcote and Coogee.
The map works very badly for Minns, and candidate selection horrors such as Ryde/East hills/Heathcote make it worse.
Heaf ccoat is actualy held buy lea evans for liberals i think labor can winn penrith this time as the liberals atempts to winn the seat buy focusing on the damb wall has not resernatid i live in the seat and no one i know cares abbout the dam wall raising plus desbite the strong backing off ayres from the local news papper he has kept a very low profile in the seat where as labors candadate cr karin mckewon very active campaigning
plus labor has a chance in holesworvy with the liberals poor candadate choice the wife of liverpool mayor Ned manoun a liberal power brocker who suprisingly is not running him self in lepington but acspect labor to run hard on liverpool cowncil giving former liberal mp John Ajaka the general manager which labor could refer to icac after all the upper house inquiry designed to give credability back fired with the liberals asking about asfours busines dealings not even bothering with marhayliuksaligations icac has all ready rejected plus not only liberals have concerns in liver pool but also ray williams aligations over the hills cowncil as well so liberals might not want to call to many inquiries designed to serrve a political purpose
gow ever as usual latham acted as liberal attack dog but they seemed to struggle to find any thing to attack asfour foor it seems it wasto attack asfour as he was one of the loudist criticks of the western sydney lock downs and would be sceen as a future top labor mp
Modderit the librals are in minority they lost bega foor the first time ever to a popular local doctor the liberal has to pick up seats to winn if labor picks a strong pick in tweed they could winn or maybi greens people are not buying Matt keans atempt to sell the government as the champions of climate change giventhe distraction of plants with dam wall proposal land clearing and coalars
Moderate @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Is this Expat Moderate, Parramatta Moderate or a new iteration of Moderate?
Hard to see a decent swing to Labor without picking up East Hills. Would have thought it’s every chance to go to Labor even if there’s no statewide swing.
Its a good thing for the Libs they have the media in their pocket because otherwise a candidate *in a safe seat* promising a nuclear reactor in every home would be a source of daily embarrassment. Not that the rest of those shenanigans don’t also demonstrate a party that is catastrophically out of touch.
Aaron Newton it seems like you might have some good insights to share, but f- me do you possess a full stop key? Punctuation is your friend, my man.
Hello Griff. It’s certainly not Parramatta Moderate, as Mrs. PM and I downsized and moved to Adamstown a few months ago. I now post occasionally as Newcastle Moderate. We have zero regrets about leaving the big city! Newcastle is a great place to live, especially as we already had family and friends up here.
I was elated by the defeat of the Morrison government, and I’m delighted by the policy changes and the overall performance of the Albanese government so far. But I’m finding it very difficult to get excited about a potential change of government in NSW. You can list plenty of policy failures and misconduct of the NSW LNP over the last 12 years, but you can list some real achievements too, including massive improvement of transport infrastructure in Sydney. Plus Perrottet is not Morrison. Despite his personal religious conservatism, and the baggage of an elderly far-right party membership, he really seems to be trying to move the Liberals towards the centre on social and environmental issues. Minns has certainly improved the NSW ALP brand, he seems calm and moderate in front of a camera, but I’m getting increasingly annoyed by his refusal to commit to reform of stamp duty or gambling policies. If Labor is not the party of reform, what’s the point of being in government?
You’d certainly rather be Labor based on the published polling, but that polling is not exactly recent, and there are complications from a large cross-bench, the impact of OPV in an environment where major party primaries may be low, the unknown impact of the teals at NSW state level, and an electoral pendulum which favours the LNP. I think it’s just guessing or wishing at this stage what the election result will be. Hung parliament is my guess, at least until more data is available.
Moderate. I don’t remember a specific bet ..I don’t think we organised anything specifically. But I would have picked Riverstone and lost. Tell you what it Labor preselects Anne Marie Christie again I will back Labor in that seat for $20… sat you give me 2 to 1. Ie if I lose I pay you $20 I’d you lose I get $40. If she is not the candidate so far I don’t know who is. Then We Pick another seat maybe East Hills or Parramatta. I don’t think I picked an alp win in Davidson but the teal or independent could win
Newcastle Moderate @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 9:40 pm
Happy to hear! Also somewhat envious of the sea change.
I agree. I am less than elated about the policies that are on offer. Perrottet, to his credit, is stealing a march on Minns in a few areas. Speaking of gambling, I picked up a fish supper tonight from Ermington and I was struck by the number of pubs advertising a 4am close for gambling on my way home. If it is too late for drinking, it is too late for gambling. Something needs to be done but NSW is very far down that road.
Having said that, I have rather more trust(?) in NSW Labor over Liberal parties for the administration. The “It’s Time” factor is helpful to mitigate vested interests at the very least.
Polls approx 2pp since
Mid September some estimates of 2pp
18/9 > 54/46 alp
23/9 54/46 alp
16/10 54/46 alp
30/10 at least 52/48 alp
16/11 54/46 alp
Dec 52/48
In every case the alp has a higher vote than the lnp
Should read in every case the alp has a higher primary vote than the lnp
i dont she willget riverstone she was a strong mckay backing aparently a black town cowncilor might get the spot historickly the liberals wereclose to clubs nswespecialy in 2011 plus there bending over back wards with crown i dont think this card will ever be implemented it goes against the liberals claim they support indevidual desitions not overly impressed with minns iva but perrottit seems only interested in staying in power and is using morrisons spin team if elliott runs there pockies stunt will have no credability
The hotel, club and gambling industry/ies will put Perrottet through the mincer !
You don’t try to flog care and compassion in “Gaming Heaven”.
The only stupider thing Perrottet could do would be to put a price cap on cocaine in the Eastern Suburbs !
Minns is avoiding that firestorm !
For the moment it would appear that Morrison has completely derailed the entire Liberal network and NSW will not be immune from that particular virus.
Gladys acting the dickhead has not helped.
Perrottet’s growing family is alarming for many and many will be concerned for his wife’s welfare.
The polls suggest a similar story to most of the lucky country.
The liberals are not liberal, are against climate change action, hate women, are dishonest and reel in horror at the thought of transparency and fairness.
The liberals have one chance. The liberals need to replace Perrottet with Kean immediately, stack their candidate selection with women and confess to the climate change gods.
Nah !
“Wall to wall” Labor is the menu for the next few years.
”
Michael QUINLIVANsays:
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:11 pm
My take I don’t see how the libs can retain Parramatta East Hills and Penrith. There are many more seats where the result is uncertain eg Riverstone . Holsworthy.Twèed. Monaro. The Teals or independents have chances in Willoughby North Shore. Manly Wakehurst and Pittwater.
Part 1
”
Seriously Michael
You are too gung-ho about your assessment.
IMO, NSW Labor can only win majority only if they win Parramatta and Penrith. I can’t see that happening in this election cycle. East Hills had been the most marginal tof Libs and NSW Labor could not win them last 2 times after losing in landslide in 2011.
And you appear to have a high opinion about Minns and NSW Labor, which I don’t.
Last 2 NSW Labor leaders Wran and Carr, who won from opposition, were political gaints when compared to Minns.
I will be extremely surprised if NSW Labor wins majority in 2023 election.
”
Mick Quinlivansays:
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:19 pm
Besides Tania Mihailuk I do not see any of the current independents losing. This includes the 3 ex sff independents. Labor will not drop any seats. Most likely the greens hold their seats with Labor having a long shot chance in.Balmain.
Part 2
”
Did Tanya M went Tropo because she was not preselected in any seat. Her pitch that she criticised Labor because she is fighting corruption sounds a bit hollow to me.
”
Griffsays:
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 8:31 pm
Moderate @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Is this Expat Moderate, Parramatta Moderate or a new iteration of Moderate?
”
This is Liberal Moderate, who supports Libs and comments only on NSW elections especially only during election time.
Ven.. re Tania your assessment is spot on
I examined each seat in the light of opv where the bonus usually goes to the liberals. The opinion polls are showing a 6% swing to Labor and Labor outpolling the liberals on primary votes. This gives the opv bonus to Labor.
East Hills example
Last election liberals polled 42% Labor 40% 12% left of centre Labor only clawed back 1.5% thus the result was 50.5 lib alp 49.5
Now run these sums assume a slight swing to Labor so each poll 40%
On these figures Labor gains 1.5% so they win 51.5% this election the alp vote will be better than 2019 and the boundary changes have added 0.4% to the vote. So add to my sums 0.4% alp vote is now almost 2% margin. Tania Mihailuk”s seat of Bankstown adjoined East Hills she tried to boost her vote at the expense of other Labor Candidates this cost Labor at least 300 votes maybe more. Add another say 300 votes to East Hills and take away 300 votes from the liberals… then in my Example we get 53 to 54% alp vote
Margin estimated on Tally room is liberal 0.1% 400 to 500 votes
East Hills
is tania m even going to run again dought she can defeat Gihad dib the well respected mp any way if asfour was so bad whiy did mihayliuk praise him in her first speech
She has her own problims was acused off bullying her staff and using her staffto shore up her preselection the liberal mps struggled to find any evidence in the upper house stunt calling an inquiry to triy to find any evidence to suport mihayliuk only thing the liberals went on about was his consulting ferm maybi they would like to have a chat with ned maunaun as to whiy he appointed former liberal mp ajaka as general manager of cowncil
Isn’t Mr Dib a wonderful talent barely utilised?
Anyone familiar with the seat of Ballina?
The Mayor of Blacktown will probably get a run in Riverstone.
As for Perrottet and gambling reform he has said some general things which the Nine Paper has lapped up but there has been absolutely no detail. Remember folks he is leading the Govt. If they wanted to do something they could have. In fact they had their chance earlier this year but the Minister advocating for it was sidelined. Hardly the actions of a Government committed to taking on gambling. But if you take your lead from Alex Smith and the SMH then you will get some of the comments being made here about Perrottet being a champion of gambling reform.