The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Has anyone heard of, or is anyone experiencing a problem with sending or receiving emails?
I am told it’s currently a “global” issue.
Important people keep ignoring my emails… is that what you mean?
😀
A massive HA HA!
The idiot is caught out telling porkies.
Having taken aim he didn’t miss. His foot that is:
Peter Dutton admits he may be wrong in claim about Labor’s top-level security briefings
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-claims-bill-shorten-ignored-top-level-security-briefings-on-kerryn-phelps-refugee-bill-20190207-p50w7t.html
The medical threshold is a red herring.
In most of the cases run in the Federal Court, the Dept has surrendered in answer to medical evidence most of which has been from Australian doctors reporting on whatever Nauruan records may exist.
Snap! citizen
What a bunch of over eager clowns there is in the federal government.
guytaur
That ‘culture’ in immigration had been there since the days of White Australia. During the row about Cornelia Rau etc there was a very good investigative piece in the Weekend Australian.
An old time reporter he said what he found in DIMA during his investigation was a culture no different to the culture he encountered back in White Australia days. An attitude that only they stood between Australia and Australia being over run by various hordes and they had to stop that happening. He also wrote of how they ‘capture’ ministers. Even so called ‘moderates’ like Vanstone and Ruddock
Roger Miller @ #1665 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:21 am
Yeah. I use gmail myself. It’s not so much google, who I doubt would ever change their policy on this, but the countless online services who may or may not treat legit aliases as separate logins. Just another trap to be aware of in our world.
It looks like the Morrison government are using the Trump blueprint of having so many stuff ups it’s hard to be outraged at one of them in particular.
Yesterday it was the Tim Wilson Faux Retiree Outrage Roadshow. Today it’s the Peter Dutton Phantom Briefing Fauxrage.
zoomster @ #1644 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:42 am
The stupid, it hurts….
Cat
Dutton admitting he made a mistake regarding ASIO advice. Does that mean he is admitting he leaked confidential material?
Will we see AFP raids on his office?
Bushfire Bill @ #32730 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:54 am
2GB disease.
Poroti
Yes which is why immigration is a poison chalice for Labor ministers.
guytaur @ #1711 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 1:11 pm
Nah, just, kind of admitting that when he said Bill Shorten had received the same briefing the government had from ASIO, he wasn’t exactly sure it was true.
Iow, he was lying about it. 🙂
zoomster @ #1644 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:42 am
From the time when you had to be talented to be famous:
https://vimeo.com/6971656
Hey don,
I saw yesterday you said your rooftop PV trips off on overvoltage protection a lot of the time.
No doubt your inverter is pumping the voltage up to push power back out to the grid. However, there should be enough headroom at the grid connection point to for you to do this before exceeding the inverter’s voltage limits. I would check the voltage out of peak solar generation times to see if it is in the statutory limits. If it’s too high to start with, not only is your PV going to keep tripping off, but you could be doing damage to other devices in your home and wearing them out.
Network companies have no obligation to keep your PV operating, but they do have to keep normal voltages within the required limits. If you are on a rural line and have a distribution transformer for your connection, or maybe shared between 3 or 4 of your neighbours, then the fix could be as simple as a transformer tap change.
Andy Murray, no, our office has been unable to send or receive emails today. Service provider advises it is a global problem.
I’m not that IT savy.
If it’s a “global” problem I suspect it may have implications.
‘Peter Dutton admits he may be wrong in claim about Labor’s top-level security briefings’
Why didn’t the journos check with Shorten before printing Dutton’s story? The original story is out there and not everyone hears the retraction. aagh!
BK – Thanks for the Dawn Report. I’ve finished clearing out email and can now have an afternoon’s read. Of course there may be a bit of a sleep midway but that’s OK. I’ll get through it.
BB and others – Many thanks for the music links. Most enjoyable.
Laocoon @ #1477 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:27 am
The wheels in my brain are turning slightly!!. Wright was the seat that Dutton wanted but was rebuffed by the locals.
Now who was it leaked that complaint!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will Buckholz be forced out to accommodate our hero?
guytaur
The Australian in the ‘olden days’ would on occasion really get stuck into surprising things(for them). Campaign mode. One was over the deportation of Rau and Solon. Another ,even more amazing ,was conditions and degree of self harm in our ‘concentration camps’ i n the days when asylum seekers were imprisoned onshore.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1714 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 12:18 pm
I’m only a home user but I’ve been sending and receiving emails all day. I also just successfully sent a test email between gmail and outlook.
Why didn’t the journos check with Shorten before printing Dutton’s story? The original story is out there and not everyone hears the retraction. aagh!
Because they are still functioning on the false assumption that when a Minister speaks on the record, he is telling the truth.
Poroti
You mean in the olden days Murdoch scribes let facts get in the way demonising refugees. Wow!!
OK, thanks for that information.
I will wait and see what develops at our end.
So, Dutton is most likely being careless with the truth, and besides, it was amended to cover:
‘…a power allowing the minister to refuse a transfer on national security grounds, and it allows the minister to override a transfer recommended by two or more initial treating doctors.’
Laocoon
“The wheels in my brain are turning slightly!!. Wright was the seat that Dutton wanted but was rebuffed by the locals.”
I thought Dutton wanted to switch to McPherson on the Gold Coast.
Andy Murray @ #1714 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 1:17 pm
No, I should have been more specific.
Where I am out in the sticks I have a small diameter power cable to the house.
When I put in the latest incarnation of my rooftop solar cells, I was told that the inverter had to be set to no more than 2 kW upload.
Which I had done.
That worked fine until I put on the air conditioner.
As you obviously know, when you upload electricity, it is going ‘upstream’ and so the voltage has to rise to send electricity up the wire, and get your upload credits. It often went up to 256 V or more.
This burnt out the control board on my air conditioner. Twice.
I was told that there was no way that the a/c could be protected against this (I call bullshit, but there you go) and so I got the bloke to set the panels to not upload.
So far, so good, the A/C is still working. I don’t get any upload credits, but c’est la vie.
My electricity bill is not a huge drain on my resources. I pay more for the network service, poles and wires and so on, than I pay for the electricity I download.
DaretoTread @ #1730 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 12:22 pm
Hope not, Wright is my electorate. Bucky may be a dud ( his only previous mention in the national press was when he mistakenly seconded a Labor motion critical of the government ) but I’d prefer a dud to a rotten spud
Of course the current policies are both sustainable and necissary, to a point. The government should absolutely have done more to get people off of Nauru and Manus quicker, including taking up the offer from New Zealand. Leaving people there for as long as they have is completely unacceptable. But some on here are seriously kidding themselves. As soon as you move away from an absolutely clear policy that if you arrive in Australia by boat you don’t set foot in Australia, it surely isn’t hard to understand that people smugglers can and will sell Australia to clients. If boats start arriving again, as they almost certainly would, it would be straight back to the poisonous anti refugee atmosphere of 2011-13. Is that what some of you want? So by all means, let’s urgently resettle those on Nauru and Manus. By all means let’s take more refugees. But let’s absolutely not do anything that will start the boats again.
Andy Murray @ #1714 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 1:17 pm
You are quite right, ‘normal’ overnight when there is little activity, and the sun is not shining, is about 250 Volts.
I have asked for it to be reduced to 240 V and they tell me that my service is within specs, so I can go and get stuffed (though that is not what they say, that is what they mean)
DDT,
Didn’t think it was Wright he went for, was McPherson.
Phew
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/dutton-to-announce-future-in-politics/news-story/44fe29226e326edf3706a6d3a3c4b0ad
Matt31
How long have you been in the LNP?
We know full well Boats scaring is the LNP bogey man. Voters are not buying it. Neither does Labor have to.
Especially when people trust Doctors more than politicians
Matt31
I also note that you are attacking courts as a due process way of deciding people’s fate. When do you want the dictatorship set up?
guytaur
They would even on occasion pile on in support of Aborigines on various issues. Although they had a jarring tendency to refer to them as ‘Blacks’ .
Even further back Rupes himself led the charge to save an Aboriginal guy from hanging. A story that comes from a bygone age.
The 1959 true crime stories that saved a man’s life and launched Rupert Murdoch’s career
“It was a significant milestone in the public career of Rupert Murdoch, it was a time when he saw himself as an anti-establishment campaigner,” says veteran journalist Margaret Simmons.
“It also had an impact on Australia, it sparked a campaign against the death sentence and helped Australia to make Indigenous rights an issue.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-18/max-stuart-rupert-murdoch-true-crime-case/10614666
Couldn’t organise a possum in a brewery.
They organise a scare campaign against closing tax loopholes and instead of getting people angry about taxation of the rich being theft, people get angry at a liberal with his snout in the trough.
Try to whip up some fear of foreigners here to take your jobs and they just get annoyance that a liberal is lying so pointlessly.
They’re meant to be on a break from stuffups while they are on holidays
They would be best running as short an election. Campaign as possible. They just aren’t very good at it.
There is an ABC report on the suicides of Aboriginal children in the Kimberley.
At the end: the usual note to contact Lifeline if you are depressed.
FFS!
ABC still reporting Duttons attack on Shorten as fact not that Dutton is lying
Sometimes autocorrect is wonderfully inventive. 🙂
lizzie
They need to run that after every Morrison and Freydenberg interview.
The SMH headline has been adjusted to Dutton admitting the briefing “may not have taken place”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-claims-bill-shorten-ignored-top-level-security-briefings-on-kerryn-phelps-refugee-bill-20190207-p50w7t.html
Since this is far from a retraction, let alone an apology, journos really should keep asking Dutton, yes or no, did the briefing occur? This from the same man who has denied issuing visas to au pairs for mates, and whose departmetn has been sending women back to Saudi Arabia for breaching a Saudi law that would be incompatible with Australian law.
@ Don
Did you get a chance to have a look at using your unused solar output to heat water? Link was provided yesterday.
I can recommend a good possum removalist if anyone has problems at their brewery
At this point I hope Labor holds its nerve and votes with Phelps. What does Labor have to gain caving in to Dutton?
– Dutton appears willing to tell any lie to avoid defeat in parliament
– Labor will look weak in caving in
– What evidence is there the concern will eventuate?
– If there is a real security risk, Wilkie would not vote for it.
It seems plausible that public servants in Canberra with their careers on the line will say anything for Dutton. If ASIO thinks there is a security risk Shorten should insist on hearing it from the horses mouth.
Matt31 @ #1726 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 12:31 pm
There’s no bill before Parliament that proposes doing that.
Hang on, why do hypothetical people smugglers get to have more influence on Australian policy than actual Australian voters?
And shouldn’t the policy be “people smuggling is illegal; Australia will seize any assets and freeze any accounts associated with people smuggling operations, and will vigorously work with overseas authorities to ensure that people smugglers are brought to justice and punished”, rather than “let’s make Australia look so awful that nobody is willing to sell tickets to Australia”?
One was over the deportation of Rau and Solon
______________________________
Cornelia Rau was never deported. She hid her identity and misled on her status in Australia due to mental illness and remained in a detention system that was poorly managed. Getting this stuff right matters.
Labor has already passed the Phelps bill in the senate.
It would be so cravenly gutless to capitulate in any way from that stance.
Guytaur, I get it. Everyone gets it. You are perfectly happy for and comfortable with boats starting up again. That’s fine! Where you go wrong is thinking that the majority of Australians will be fine with that; they won’t be any more fine with it than they were last time or the time before that. That’s why I say be very careful what you wish for. You may be happy for the next Labor government to have to deal with boat arrivals as an issue again, for the LNP to run yet another stop the boats campaign etc. Do I need to tell you where that will end? With the Coalition putting in place the exact same policies that have got us where we are today, with people sitting in offshore detention camps for years. That’s why I say again; absolutely resettle the people still left on Nauru and Manus, but leave the policies in place that’ve stopped the boats and don’t make the same mistakes as were made by the Rudd government in 2008.
TPOF
Exactly. Which is why we need review and not leaving it up to the Minister.
We set up such systems to catch the mistakes in a system humans set up.
Tony Wright’s unimpressed with my local member:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-idiots-play-the-parliament-of-the-inappropriate-20190207-p50w8v.html
Matt31
We get it. You are for dictatorship over democracy and will aid attacks on courts so a Minister can decide on a whim.
Hail the TuberFuhrer.
TPOF
Solon was deported and Rau’s treatment a disgrace. Details that do not make the department any less shit. A reminder of Solon’s treatment.
.
.
Vivian Alvarez Solon …….an Australian who was unlawfully removed to the Philippines by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA) in July 2001. In May 2005, it became public knowledge that she had been deported, although DIMIA knew of its mistake in 2003. Solon’s family had listed her as a missing person since July 2003, and until May 2005, did not know that she had been deported.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivian_Solon