Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Labor-Green Accord in Tasmania:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor–Green_Accord

    “In return for the promise of stable government, the Parliamentary Accord committed both parties to work towards common objectives, balancing broad changes to environmental management policies with Tasmania’s economic and employment concerns.[5] Several environmental and social policies requested by the Greens were implemented,[6] including:

    a moratorium on logging in National Estate areas not already approved
    a limit on the state’s woodchip export quota
    ending the attempts to build a pulp mill at Wesley Vale, and closure of a chip mill in the Huon
    freedom of information legislation
    :::
    The Greens terminated the accord after 409 days on 1 October 1990, when the state cabinet announced its adoption of the Federal Government’s Forests and Forest Industry Strategy (FFIS), however an election was not required until 1992.[7] The accord was never considered a coalition government, as the Green MPs had no ministerial responsibilities, and as such had no say in the adoption of the forestry policy.

    Michael Field and Christine Milne spoke about the breakdown of the accord to the ABC program Stateline in 2006. Field compared the relationship between Labor and the Greens to a “forced marriage” which ended in a “very acrimonious divorce”. Milne stated:

    “What destroyed the Labor-Green Accord was the betrayal of the Greens by the Labor Party over resource security legislation.”

  2. BK wrote:

    It’s possible that Tim Wilson and his shady mates may well have overplayed their hand over the “retirement tax”.

    They’re peaking too early. A couple of months too early.

    Mind youse, they’ve been helped by the media who, with little evidence provided, baldly state things like “Labor is in trouble over this,” and who refuse to provide analysis if the policy, preferring to wank on about “The Game” and the “Inside Canberra” bullshit instead. You really have to look pretty hard to find a rational explanation of the policy. They are out there but they are well hidden behind a curtain of spin and journalistic laziness. Labor have provided the explanations but they are being deliberately ignored.

    If even Sky News can’t bodgy-up a good poll against the policy then all the Coalition’s energy has been wasted.

  3. Confessions @ #2744 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:42 pm

    Its like a virtual blockade of Britain. Is it this possible? If it is would the UK be that stupid? Surely an extension becomes more likely rather than less. Surely. ??

    Some of us were talking about this not that long ago. Yes it is real.

    Gecko @ #2751 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    The woman speaking in the CFMEU video was magnificent. I tips me lid. Well done madam!

    There was a time the ABC would have covered and broadcast this.

  4. PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 52

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

    so what are we playing for? I think we need odds and some money, wine or single malt on it to make it interesting 🙂

  5. Pegasus.
    I posted my stuff about the Greens leader of the time because another Bludger asked me why I thought she was a sell out basically. They were going at Ali France who is standing for Labor against Dutton and accusing her of selling out to the party line on offshore detention which she previously opposed.

    My point was everyone compromises on things in politics; not just one party or one individual. ALL of them are guilty of poor decisions and hipocracy including the Greens at different points in their history.

    I am not a Labor party blind eyed apologist but I will defend good women having a go at politics against that hateful heartless Peter Dutton in Dickson for example.

    It would be much better if we all debated the policy not the colour of politicians brand name. It is such a waste of energy and effort IMHO.

    Cheers
    EB

  6. Is there a mass outbreak of carpal tunnel syndrome among staff at the Federal Reserve that precludes the keystroking necessary to convert numbers in reserve accounts into numbers in Treasury Security accounts?

    “Last week, Beth Hammack, a senior Goldman Sachs banker who chairs a US government advisory group known as the Treasury Bond Advisory Committee, dispatched a letter to Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary, with a bombshell at the bottom.

    According to TBAC calculations, America will need to sell an eye-popping $12tn of bonds in the coming decade, sharply more than it did in the past 10 years. This will “pose a unique challenge for the Treasury”, Ms Hammack warned, even “without factoring in the possibility of a recession”. In plain English, the Wall Street luminaries on the committee were asking who on earth — or in global finance — will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/78bc966c-2adf-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7?fbclid=IwAR3GY_VdhAVk_FMNBmVCUJ6eahq4HsnmX8USuWHLy2P8LFXuHPbSjj8HNY4

  7. Seriously, why do the likes of Andrew Earlwood bother? He says that being a democratic socialist makes me a disgrace. Well I wear that label as a badge of honour coming from a sell out like you mate! I do admire your strong advocacy of Grouper philosophy though. Keep fighting the good conservative fight.

  8. Late Riser says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 10:45 pm
    sustainable future, I ran out years ago. These days I just keep score

    Whats the score ?

    electionblogger2019.simplesite.com

  9. Alan Kohler in The Australian just now, on another ScoMo fuckup…

    And while most of the heat has rightly been under the leaders of the banks, with the NAB duo over the hottest spot on the barbecue, it is mostly a question for shareholders, and especially institutions, and especially industry funds, which is where the story gets interesting.

    Scott Morrison, then Treasurer, bunged superannuation into Ken Hayne’s terms of reference in the vain hope that he would deliver a kicking to the industry funds. No such luck.

    In fact, the industry fund sector is now cleaning up, with billions of dollars pouring into them from the hapless bank funds. AustralianSuper, HostPlus and the rest of them are on the way to being the most powerful financial institutions Australia has ever known, if they aren’t there already.

    https://outline.com/T8fxqr

  10. Confessions says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 10:06 pm
    Video footage of the woman who said removal of the franking credit rorts could mean more funding for schools getting booed.

    *************

    That will be explosive in an attack ad.

  11. Bushfire Bill, thanks for the link. https://outline.com/T8fxqr

    My quote from the article would be:

    Behind this is a very big question, far bigger than NAB: are we seeing the end of Friedmanism? Is this the moment when the ideas of economist Milton Friedman concerning the purpose of corporations will finally be consigned to the bin? I think it is.

    His description of “Friedmanism” in practice is:

    companies started defining their purpose purely as making money and building shareholders’ wealth, it didn’t matter how.

    And then Kohler describes why industry superfunds are the key becasue they

    are on the way to being the most powerful financial institutions Australia has ever known

    and are

    joint ventures between trade unions and employer bodies, governed by the most diverse group of directors in existence: people who mostly haven’t got a clue about investing, but who know a lot about culture and true purpose

    Worth thinking on. Thanks again for posting.

  12. Bushfire Bill @ #2764 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:22 pm

    Alan Kohler in The Australian just now, on another ScoMo fuckup…

    And while most of the heat has rightly been under the leaders of the banks, with the NAB duo over the hottest spot on the barbecue, it is mostly a question for shareholders, and especially institutions, and especially industry funds, which is where the story gets interesting.

    Scott Morrison, then Treasurer, bunged superannuation into Ken Hayne’s terms of reference in the vain hope that he would deliver a kicking to the industry funds. No such luck.

    In fact, the industry fund sector is now cleaning up, with billions of dollars pouring into them from the hapless bank funds. AustralianSuper, HostPlus and the rest of them are on the way to being the most powerful financial institutions Australia has ever known, if they aren’t there already.

    https://outline.com/T8fxqr

    Not from a friendly source by any means , but the comparison data is worth looking at – the implications are Hhuge –

    In just over a decade, the overall super sector could double to $6 trillion, dwarfing the forecast $4 trillion share market capitalisation of the ASX. And now, the industry funds want to invest directly into corporate Australia and potentially take effective control of company boardrooms.

    Once industry super funds start taking significant equity stakes in Australian companies, there inevitably will be pressure to require those companies – and their supply chains – to maintain approved worker representation.

    https://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/unions-aim-for-the-commanding-corporate-heights-20181205-h18qny
    …………………………………………………………….

    So ‘potentially’ but unlikely (for sound commercial reasons) ‘workers super’ might just be capable of seizing the modern day Commanding Heights of our modern economy .

    No wonder they are worried

  13. ” people who mostly haven’t got a clue about investing, but who know a lot about culture and true purpose

    Worth thinking on. Thanks again for posting.”

    Agreed, Ta BB. Cant help but think that someone like Menzies would probably agree (from what i have read of his attitudes) and just get the above.

    Howard and those that followed him?? Not a chance. 🙁

  14. “So ‘potentially’ but unlikely (for sound commercial reasons) ‘workers super’ might just be capable of seizing the modern day Commanding Heights of our modern economy .

    No wonder they are worried”

    Yup. 🙂 But if things do start to head that way its not going to be the “workers” dictatorship they probably fear. Russia showed where that goes. If we can get rid of the current lot, have some stability and actual governance and just calm things down our kids could end up with an economy with a focus on opportunity and equality, and supporting people who need it.

  15. The poll also found that:

    The proportion of the public satisfied with Corbyn’s performance has dropped to 17% per cent — the lowest figure recorded by any Labour leader apart from Michael Foot.
    The proportion dissatisfied with the Labour leader has risen to 72%.
    Under half of Labour voters (44%) are happy with him.

    From the Guardian….MORI poll…

  16. briefly @ #2775 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:44 pm

    The poll also found that:

    The proportion of the public satisfied with Corbyn’s performance has dropped to 17% per cent — the lowest figure recorded by any Labour leader apart from Michael Foot.
    The proportion dissatisfied with the Labour leader has risen to 72%.
    Under half of Labour voters (44%) are happy with him.

    From the Guardian….MORI poll…

    Not quite sure what you’re hoping to achieve by selecting that snippet, but from the same poll, 35% are satisfied with the performance of Theresa May.

    Also you appear to have done some selective editing on this bit:

    From the Guardian….MORI poll…

    You have implied that the poll was conducted by The Guardian in conjunction with MORI. This is not true. If you weren’t deliberately trying to muddy the waters you would’ve stated the fact that The Guardian merely published the results of an IPSOS/MORI poll.

    You also seem to have hoped no-one would actually check what was really published by deliberately not attaching a link to the post on the Guardian site which is here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/08/second-referendum-necessary-if-no-brexit-agreement-says-john-mcdonnell-politics-live?page=with:block-5c5d6db6e4b04a6f567db61e#block-5c5d6db6e4b04a6f567db61e

    What were you hoping to achieve with this deliberate, but very clumsy attempt at obfuscation?

  17. Dan Gulberry.

    The ownership of the newspaper which published the poll as an “EXCLUSIVE: “, London Evening Standard, should have made it ‘untouchable’ for a number of Pubsters in normal circumstances. It is owned by a former KGB agent , one of those rich russkiys Alexander Lebedev .

  18. Late Riser @ #4348 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:30 pm

    EB @ #2761 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 10:45 pm
    sustainable future, I ran out years ago. These days I just keep score

    Whats the score ?

    electionblogger2019.simplesite.com

    haha

    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 54

    Pretty clear that it’s not a Normal distribution. the medians have it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *