Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. ‘Premeditated murder’: White House aides turn on each other after Trump’s schedule leaked

    The White House has been rocked by the massive leak of President Donald Trump’s schedule, which shows few meetings and hours of unstructured time each day.

    Axios published 95 pages of Trump’s private schedules Sunday, and sources told the website the following day that the leak had sowed chaos inside the White House.

    “There are leaks, and then there are leaks,” said Cliff Sims, a former White House aide who recently published the tell-all book “Team of Vipers.”

    “If most are involuntary manslaughter,” he added, “this was premeditated murder. People inside are genuinely scared.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/white-house-aides-turn-trumps-schedule-leaked-premeditated-murder/

  2. ‘Trump’s presidency is hanging by a thread’: Conservative writer reveals the president’s true weakness

    President Donald Trump loves polls when they’re in his favor, but in recent weeks especially, they have not been his friend.

    After imposing a disastrous and pointless government shutdown, Trump was pummeled in the polls, leading him to retreat. Now, polls show that his “plan B” to get funds for his promised border wall — declare a national emergency — is also deeply unpopular, indicating it could do even more damage to his standing than the shutdown did.

    Americans disapprove of the plan in a stark 66 percent to 34 percent split, according to CBS.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/trumps-presidency-hanging-thread-conservative-writer-reveals-presidents-true-weakness/

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Katharine Murphy reports that Labor has seized on the Morrison government’s reluctance to create a user-pays system for mortgage brokers, opening a new front in the political brawl over banking misconduct, as the latest Guardian Essential poll suggests the contest between the major parties is tightening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/04/essential-poll-labor-seizes-on-banking-brawl-as-lead-over-coalition-narrows
    Here is Ken Hayne’s verdict on the banks in his own words.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/hayne-s-verdict-on-the-banks-in-his-own-words-20190203-p50vft.html
    Adele Ferguson is far from impressed with the royal commission’s report – especially with the way ASIC and APRA were handled.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-regulators-failed-bank-customers-but-they-are-now-being-trusted-to-fix-this-mess-20190204-p50vnk.html
    Paul Kelly says that the Hayne final report gives the 2019 election a devastating framing — who is responsible for a bank and financial system plagued by systemic misconduct and who is best to fix it?
    https://www.outline.com/kkzamE
    Paul Bongiorno reckons the report leaves Scott Morrison with little credit in the bank.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/02/04/scott-morrison-left-with-little-credit-in-the-bank/
    Sam Maiden says that Scott Morrison was noticeably absent from the press conference to announce his government’s response to the banking royal commission he never wanted to see happen, leaving his Treasurer solo to be thrown at the mercy of the Australian public.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/04/scott-morrison-josh-frydenberg-banking-royal-commission/
    Clancy Yeates reports on the impact on the mortgage broking industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/how-much-would-you-pay-upfront-for-a-mortgage-broker-20190203-p50vfy.html
    But the AFR says the government has pulled its punches when it comes to mortgage brokers.
    https://www.outline.com/CJP6fG
    Law lecturer Kym Sheehan writes that Justice Hayne says in almost every case of appalling misconduct examined by his commission, what happened was “driven not only by the relevant entity’s pursuit of profit, but also by individuals’ pursuit of gain”. He is fingering greed: personal greed.
    https://theconversation.com/banking-royal-commission-the-real-problem-is-how-we-value-executives-and-workers-111094
    The Australian reports that Hayne has recommended criminal charges against three financial institutions and asked for probes into 15 more.
    https://www.outline.com/amzKvb
    And the AFR says Australia could be about to follow the lead of Iceland, the only country that has ever put top finance executives behind bars.
    https://www.outline.com/b3HSVS
    Karen Cox says that now Hayne has reported, the lobbyists will get to work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/now-hayne-has-reported-the-lobbyists-will-get-to-work-20190204-p50vi6.html
    Australia’s insurers face a massive shake-up in the way they do business after the Hayne royal commission recommended sweeping reforms to the sector.
    https://www.outline.com/BvMx75
    And financial advisers would need to be individually registered in a similar way as doctors and lawyers under recommendations by the Hayne inquiry.
    https://www.outline.com/ehDsa6
    The banks have copped a royal hiding at the hands of Kenneth Hayne; this what they had to say for themselves after the release of the commissioner’s report.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bank-bosses-answer-the-royal-commission-blast-20190204-p50vnv.html
    Katharine Murphy writes, “To do anything other than saying “yes Kenneth, thank you Kenneth” would have been politically untenable, and the Coalition is desperate to avoid a fight with Labor on Big Bad Banks, its preferred territory.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/04/coalition-response-banking-inquiry-pure-politics
    These academics opine that Hayne’s failure to tackle bank structure means that in a decade or so another treasurer will have to call another royal commission.
    https://theconversation.com/haynes-failure-to-tackle-bank-structure-means-that-in-a-decade-or-so-another-treasurer-will-have-to-call-another-royal-commission-110437
    A new independent watchdog will police the regulators who have been directed by the Hayne royal commission to punish misconduct more aggressively by pursuing court action to deter wrongdoing.
    https://www.outline.com/fhWhGF
    According to David Crowe Labor has indicated it will not back down on plans to raise more than $80 billion from wealthier Australians.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/welfare-for-the-wealthy-chris-bowen-doubles-down-on-labor-s-tax-changes-20190204-p50vjv.html
    And Crowe says that the Hayne report shows Labor was right on the FOFA reform and the Coalition was wrong to water it down when it got into power after the 2013 election. It also shows the big banks would have been better off accepting the Labor regime in full rather than mounting their powerful lobbying campaign to scale it back.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-can-t-afford-to-repeat-the-coalition-s-mistakes-on-the-banking-royal-commission-20190203-p50vfs.html
    The AFR says Hayne left out board accountability from his report.
    https://www.outline.com/F5ZXVq
    Sarah Danckert writes about the extraordinary spray Ken Hayne gave the NAB executives. The NAB board is meeting today apparently.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/hayne-unleashes-on-nab-boss-and-chairman-20190204-p50vmy.html
    Elizabeth Knight writes that it looks like no accident of timing that the corporate regulator has launched a nuclear strike against CBA in the hours leading up to the release of the final report of the banking royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-goes-nuclear-on-cba-ahead-of-royal-commission-report-20190204-p50vj7.html
    Professor of management, Nicole Gillespie, outlines the six most important questions our banks will need to answer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-six-most-important-questions-our-banks-will-need-to-answer-20190204-p50vks.html
    Nicole Hasham tells us about a senior fire chief who has unloaded on politicians over climate change inaction.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/astounded-former-fire-chief-unloads-on-politicians-over-climate-change-inaction-20190204-p50vl0.html
    Peter Hartcher is concerned that we have the worst crisis since Cold War brewing, but no one’s paying attention.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/worst-crisis-since-cold-war-brewing-but-no-one-s-paying-attention-20190204-p50vi4.html
    In a scathing contribution John Falzon examines the motives and effects of neo-liberal governments’ love of privatisation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/catching-mice-with-privatised-cats-20190118-p50s9d.html
    Residents will be locked out of their CBD apartments for at least 48 hours after a fast-moving fire, believed to have been fuelled by combustible cladding, tore through the Neo200 apartment complex on Melbourne’s Spencer Street.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/cbd-tower-residents-forced-out-of-apartments-after-blaze-20190204-p50vlt.html
    Victoria’s building authority has not notified residents of 60 buildings it has deemed ‘highest risk’ because of flammable cladding.
    https://www.outline.com/mKVcn5
    Dana McCauley reports that Morrison has claimed government agencies have told him “hundreds” of people on Manus Island and Nauru would be flown to Australia “within a matter of weeks” if Labor and the crossbench pass a bill giving doctors more say in treating sick refugees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-claims-hundreds-of-refugees-would-be-transferred-within-weeks-if-bill-passes-20190204-p50vlc.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Cathy McGowan is remaining tight-lipped about refugee legislation despite removal of children.
    https://theconversation.com/mcgowan-remains-tight-lipped-about-refugee-legislation-despite-removal-of-children-111053
    Markus Mannheim wonders why it is that unwanted dud executives are paid handsomely to quit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/perverse-perk-the-dud-executives-paid-to-quit-20190127-p50txv.html
    Legal researcher Kieran Pender wonders if a High Court decision about to be handed down will have the effect of gagging public servants.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/will-the-high-court-gag-public-servants-20190125-p50toq.html
    Richard Flanagan says that Scott Morrison is trying to scare people about franking credits but seems blithely unaware people are already scared – about climate change
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/05/tasmania-is-burning-the-climate-disaster-future-has-arrived-while-those-in-power-laugh-at-us
    The environmental and ecological disasters occurring at the Murray-Darling Basin are driven by capitalism, writes John Passant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-murray-darling-death-by-capitalism,12342
    Doug Dingwall reports that watchdogs overseeing spy agencies and public spending fear a proposed federal integrity commission will threaten their independence and disrupt investigations.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/watchdogs-move-to-protect-turf-from-national-integrity-commission-20190204-p50vk4.html
    John Wilson explains how a labour-hire firm that works for the APS provides a perfect example of how not to sack a recruit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/panicking-over-an-employee-s-past-20190123-p50t8w.html
    The New York Times examines the role of Boeing in the Lion Air crash. Interesting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/behind-the-lion-air-crash-20190204-p50vhf.html
    The demolition of Sydney’s Allianz stadium ahead of the March election is facing a new threat after a local community group threatened legal action in the New South Wales land and environment court.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/05/demolition-of-sydneys-alliance-stadium-facing-new-legal-threat
    Senators have grown concerned as vacancies pile up in the Trump administration.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/it-s-way-too-many-senators-grow-concerned-as-vacancies-pile-up-in-trump-administration-20190205-p50voa.html
    Champion trainer Darren Weir is facing a four-year disqualification after the conclusion of a marathon stewards hearing at Racing Victoria headquarters that began last night and finished shortly after 1am today. Worth a nomination?
    https://www.outline.com/LkKyNM

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe goes all religious here!

    David Pope is unconvinced by the government’s undertakings on the 76 Hayne recommendations.

    Cathy Wilcox and our sunburnt country.

    From Matt Golding






    Mark David delivers a new poll report to Morrison.

    Zanetti with the release of the royal commission report.

    Glen Le Lievre on how to bash a bank.

    Sean Leahy is unimpressed with the report.

    Alan Moir on the response from the banking industry.

    From the US.






  4. This is a must-read. not only because of Richard Flanagan’s beautiful prose, but its truth.

    The Tasmanian fires have attracted little national media attention because there has been as yet, thankfully, no loss of life and only a handful of homes burnt. And yet these fires signal a terrifying new reality, as disturbing and ultimately almost certainly as tragic as the coral reef bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

    What has become clear is that another global treasure in the form of Tasmania’s ancient Gondwanaland remnant forest and its woodland alpine heathlands are at profound and immediate risk because of climate change.

    “This is coal,” Morrison began babbling. “Don’t be afraid don’t be scared won’t hurt you won’t hurt you.”

    Almost stuttering in his excitement, missing pronouns, he was gibbering without punctuation. If the style was grammatically Joycean, the effect, like his previous masterpiece, “Where the bloody hell are you?”, was memorable.

    He waved the piece of coal around like it was the sacred Host itself, he swung it high and he brought it so low that for a moment it was as if a wildly guffawing Barnaby Joyce seated next to him might lick it. How they laughed! The ranks of the Liberal party assembled around and behind, how they all laughed and laughed that day.

    Those faces contorted in weird mirth are the grotesque masks of a great and historic crime, deriding not just their political opponents but mocking the future with that pure contempt of power, daring us to remember beyond the next news cycle, to care beyond the next confected outrage, to see past the next lie. It is the image of our age: power laughing at us.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/05/tasmania-is-burning-the-climate-disaster-future-has-arrived-while-those-in-power-laugh-at-us

  5. How many more of our so-called regulators are corrupted by political affiliation?

    Mr Frydenberg now says the regulators are both under new management and have got the message. He says he has spoken to the head of ASIC and the deputy chair and “they are focusing on ensuring that people engaged in misconduct are held to account”.

    This is an interesting insight into the culture of federal agencies, even statutory regulators. They take their cues from the government of the day.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/02/04/scott-morrison-left-with-little-credit-in-the-bank/

  6. Optimism that the government is about to do something about the banks perhaps? A 48 does seem a bit unwarranted. I don’t get how we can trust them.

  7. We went wrong when we started whittling away at government’s role to provide equitable and accessible essential services. The government’s role should be to achieve the collective dreams of the many instead of pandering to the demands of the already wealthy few. When you dismember the public sector, further dividing society instead of developing and democratising it; when you sell off the public sphere piece by piece, creating a space for profits instead of people; when you privatise profits and socialise pain – you replace democratic and accountable space with a model best summed up by NAB’s Ken Henry, who explained frankly to the banking royal commission:
    “The capitalist model is that businesses have no responsibility other than to maximise profits to shareholders.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/catching-mice-with-privatised-cats-20190118-p50s9d.html

  8. PuffyTMD @ #4 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 7:35 am

    What the hell? 52-48?

    Is the public stupid, mad, all on drugs or a combination of them all?

    What an excellent question.

    That well known social commentator, raconteur and all round jolly good fellow Lleyton Hewitt had the answer all those years ago:-

    The public is stupid ❗ quoth he.

    I suspect that the public, whatever it is, neither knows nor cares that there have been royal commissions investigating the banks, aged care (current), child sexual abuse ⏩ ⏩

    If one considers that a great many (people) get their news of happenings from commercial TV each evening then one would have to arrive at the conclusion that “Dickheads R Us” is the organisation that encompasses the mass of Orstrayan society. Fortitude and optimism in equal parts is required to stay ahead of the depression curve.

    Now to have a look at BK’s Dawn Patrol, and then to Mr. C. Kenny for some comedy ideas.
    ☮ ☕

  9. .@mjrowland68: Following the #BankingRC will the Labor Party stop accepting donations from the banks?@Bowenchris: "Banks donate to all sorts of political parties, as is their right. We believe in greater transparency, we believe in greater disclosure." pic.twitter.com/YfKGVumSps— News Breakfast (@BreakfastNews) February 4, 2019

    .@mjrowland68: Following the #BankingRC will the Liberal Party stop accepting donations from the banks?@JoshFrydenberg: "Banks are important institutions and as long as the laws are adhered to, they should be free to contribute to political parties of any particular persuasion" pic.twitter.com/fP6WobPeKE— News Breakfast (@BreakfastNews) February 4, 2019

    same same

  10. Polling on a 2PP basis is getting close to …wait for it… same same.

    Given the woefully poor performance of the Govt, Labor should be ashamed of themselves.

  11. @JohnWren1950
    54m54 minutes ago

    Has everyone noticed how #PMScum is treating Frydenberg. He has sidelined him completely for at least a month. Now he’s thrown him to the wolves on the #BanksRC. He’s abandoned Josh to take all the hits. He’s nowhere to be seen, protecting his own brand. #leadership #auspol

  12. …He’s abandoned Josh to take all the hits. He’s nowhere to be seen, protecting his own brand. #leadership #auspol”

    Where the bloody hell is he?

  13. Matt Burke
    ‏@matttburke

    The Daily Tele splash is that a huge majority of Labor frontbench don’t personally benefit from cash refunds for excess franking credits.

    “Bill’s team escapes Franking hits.” Message: Bad Bill won’t suffer from the legislation.

  14. This.

    “Frankly, I find it perverse that we send cheques to people with big share portfolios that amount to more than we provide a pensioner with no assets and no other income source,” he said.

    Does NOT equal ‘Same-Same’ with the Coalition government.

  15. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s wrap.

    Trump dives into the swamp to find his next appointment to head the Interior Dept.

    Bernhardt’s relentless work ethic helps explain how he’s managed to advance Trump’s pro-industry agenda over the nation’s public lands. Having worked for years as a lobbyist representing many of the very businesses he now regulates, he walked into the No. 2 job at Interior with so many potential conflicts of interest he has to carry a small card listing them all.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-man-behind-the-curtain-interiors-no-2-helps-drive-trumps-agenda/2018/11/18/6403eb4c-e9ff-11e8-b8dc-66cca409c180_story.html?utm_term=.b8f9ecfd82df

  16. If the major parties should be ashamed of themselves for polling mid to high thirties, what should a rabble that can only get 9% feel?

    Elitist.

  17. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 8:20 am
    Matt Burke
    ‏@matttburke

    The Daily Tele splash is that a huge majority of Labor frontbench don’t personally benefit from cash refunds for excess franking credits.
    “Bill’s team escapes Franking hits.” Message: Bad Bill won’t suffer from the legislation.

    ____________________________________

    Or, they pay income tax.

  18. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 8:15 am
    …He’s abandoned Josh to take all the hits. He’s nowhere to be seen, protecting his own brand. #leadership #auspol”

    Where the bloody hell is he?

    Right about now he would be at his pentecostal church praying in tongues, lighting candles, banging Tambourines and begging “Jesus” to give him back his favourite toys – economic responsibility v Shorten for one, blaming refugees on threats to border protection, kicking anything that might cost him votes into the long grass {LGBQTI+ v ‘Freedom of Religion’; the Israel Embassy; acting like a human being with refugees and getting them of the islands, I mean REALLY getting them off; etc etc. and his favourite Abbott stick doll…

    Oh wait, we have a hymn.. “Nearer my God to thee, nearer to thee”… keep going Scotty- he’s coming for ya mate.

  19. Morning all

    The narrowing of the polls is not really surprising.
    Labor still have their work cut out for them

    The concerns with the falling ppty market etc and the Labor policy re negative gearing unfortunately is not going to help them win comfortably.
    They may just scrape over line.
    I am hoping they have a clear strategy between now and election to articulate their vision.

  20. This essential poll is another footnote in the thesis that the Australian public do not want Shorten as PM. That the ALP are losing the primary vote to the Liberals is some stark evidence. With the government being so poor the ALP primary should be well over 40 and the 2pp somewhere around 55. From these figures it’s clear the public don’t trust Shorten.

  21. The more the Tele and the like carp on about the franking credits, the more they’ll expose the rort for what it is, a lurk for the well off. Keep it up fellas.

  22. My view is the proposed savings to the bottom line with negative gearing and the franking credits etc
    Should result in reducing income tax for workers.

  23. Desperate for some good news this morning, the only thing I can think of is that I now have a functioning Worm Farm. Everything else is, frankly, disaster on stilts.

  24. State of the Union speeches were boring, long-winded and ultimately irrelevant long before President Trump arrived. I got my hopes up when Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) offered Trump the alternative of submitting his State of the Union remarks in written form. No such luck — Trump is set to deliver his address Tuesday before a joint session of Congress.

    Trump’s State of the Union is even less significant than the State of the Unions offered by recent presidents. Trump lies more than past presidents and has a greater gap between rhetoric and action than most. In other words, it does not matter what he says Tuesday night. In a nanosecond, the words evaporate and we return to Trump tweets, fabrications and attacks.

    Trump’s State of the Union also suffers because he has become a bore — regurgitating the same points, incorporating no new ideas or information (for he is incapable of learning) and spouting the same know-nothingism. He is drearily predictable.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/04/can-we-skip-sotu-response/?utm_term=.1c3b05fb7b9d

    Bring on Stacey Abrams and the state of the union response!

  25. ““Bill’s team escapes Franking hits.” Message: Bad Bill won’t suffer from the legislation.”

    Some here have said that Rupert is turning to be on the winning side. I’ve seen no evidence of this in the paper editions of the Australian and the Telecrap. This is yet another example of a fabricated story to push a political agenda. You can’t even say it’s lies – the facts stated are likely true, but the story is essentially empty.

    MP’s have high salaries, regardless of party, about $200k for a backbencher, equivalent to a junior to mid-level corporate executive. They have a marginal tax rate at the top bracket, 47% including Medicare levy. If they own shares, they pay income tax on dividends but can offset franking credits that go with their dividends against their total tax liability. Just like anyone else with income who receives dividends. Labor’s changes won’t affect them, nor the majority of share owners, nor anyone who doesn’t own shares.

    Daily Telecrap readers should be offended at this insult to their intelligence.

  26. EVEN IF THE POLLS END UP FINISHING 51-49 LABOR SCOTTY’S GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME DEFENDING 23 SEATS UNDER 55.0 2pp AND WINNING THREE MORE TO ANNOY US FOR ANOTHER THREE YEARS.. DON’T HIT THE PANIC BUTTON YET KIDDIES–ITS A LONG WAY TO GO

    The Coalition goes into the election holding 73 seats, 3 short of majority government. The Coalition must retain all their seats and win 3 from opposition parties to win government for a third term. For every seat the Coalition loses in this election it must gain one. The net target is 76 seats.

    The Australian Labor Party goes into the election with 71 seats, five short of majority government. The ALP must retain all 71 seats they had before the election and gain 5 more seats from others parties to win a first term in government. Again, the net target is 76 seats.

    HOT SEAT DEFINITION

    A hot seat is a electorate seat at high risk of being lost by the Party holding the seat with a marginal vote advantage of less than 55.0%

    [eg Chisolm: Liberal 53.4 % v Labor 46.6 percent]

    COALITION HOT SEATS [23 SEATS]

    Electorate Party 2PP % VOTES

    Corangamite VIC LIBERAL 50.03 30
    Capricornia QLD NATIONAL 50.6 1,111
    Gilmore NSW LIBERAL 50.7 1,503
    Forde QLD LIBERAL 50.7 1,062
    Flynn QLD NATIONAL 51.0 1,814
    Robertson NSW LIBERAL 51.1 2,179
    Banks NSW LIBERAL 51.4 2,588
    Petrie QLD LIBERAL 51.7 3,059
    Grey SA LIBERAL 51.9 3,508
    Dickson QLD LIBERAL 52.0 3,275

    ^^^ That’s 10 already

    Hasluck WA LIBERAL 52.0 3,337
    Page NSW NATIONAL 52.3 4,822
    Boothby SA LIBERAL 52.8 2,688
    Dawson QLD NATIONAL 53.4 6,124
    La Trobe VIC LIBERAL 5 3.5 2,886
    Pearce WA LIBERAL 53.6 6,312
    Swan WA LIBERAL 53.6 5,848
    Bonner QLD LIBERAL 53.7 6,095
    Barker SA LIBERAL 54.2 8,119
    Leichhardt QLD LIBERAL 54.0 7,022
    Casey VIC LIBERAL 54.5 9,700
    Cowper NSW NATIONAL 54.5 9,426
    Reid NSW LIBERAL 54.7 8,489

    DEFENDING 23 HOT SEATS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ASK FOR THE COALITION IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ACCURATE – GAINING THREE MORE SEATS WILL BE HARDER

  27. And Fess – that is the crux of why there are so few sitting days — they KNOW that every time parliament sits, the coalition’s stocks fall. They have spent 2 years falling in holes with lack of direction/legislation/credibility on show when parliament sits.

    Morrison thinks that he can adopt Shorten’s practice of staying out of the way when the other side is making a public mess of themselves. One flaw in that idea is that the ALP hasn’t made such a meal of everything it touches, like the coalition has.

  28. DEFENDING 23 HOT SEATS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ASK FOR THE COALITION IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ACCURATE – GAINING THREE MORE SEATS WILL BE HARDER

    Plus they are down to defending seats they’ve never really had to before like Warringah and Higgins.

  29. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/letters/labor-has-lost-this-workers-vote/news-story/39c5692837208a86882513395881eaac
    https://outline.com/2qFSZJ

    Aha. Yesterday (all my troubles seemed …♫♪♫) while attending the local Eye Hospital (my glaucoma is now back in excellent shape 15/15) my senior son-in-law kept me entertained with various items including his opinion that because this one/that one were elected under whatever rules (US/Australia) then all is well with the world and let’s get on with something else. Hmmmm ❗

    The father figure John Carroll praises (“Blessed transformation of the paternal instinct”, 2-3/2) is very much an upper middle class man: two parents, two incomes, two professionals. While this experiment may produce sons that have insights into their fathers, and while these insights might lead to further benefits in subsequent generations, the same thing is not happening in lower socioeconomic groups where the number of single-parent families is increasing. Mostly these single parents are women. Sons of single-parent mothers may well find themselves excluded from any healthy male role models. Who will paint this picture?

    This refers to an item
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/blessed-transformation-ofthepaternal-instinct/news-story/b1af52ea445f5227e3c738bfb115e6e5
    https://outline.com/vJHRJc

    Even over the past 70 years we have seen an evolution, with the standard father becoming far more nurturing than his 50s predecessor. The new father delivers children to school, attends functions there, gets to know teachers, and joins parental gatherings — themselves forms of community that reinforce the shared bonds across generations. At home, he changes nappies, plays with his children and reads to them at night. Other domestic roles too have broadened, with him more likely to share cooking, shopping, entertaining and cleaning duties.

    In another letter from the original item comes this sad tale of hardy sons and daughters fighting for survival in a desperate near death effort —

    Our retirement is comfortable, but not lavish. All my investments are in franked shares. If Labor is elected at the next election and implements its policy of abolishing franking credits our annual income suddenly drops to $61,519 (almost 30 per cent). With the world and Australian economic future not looking too rosy some of these companies could even reduce their dividends. I’m sure you would agree that if you were in my position you would not be happy about this looming scenario. Many of my friends are in a similar financial conundrum and feel the same way as myself.

    Dammit I buggered up the blockquotes. Never mind – she’ll be right mate and this Bank business will be a forgotten memory by Christmas.

    Does anybody remember that timeless work of poetry and romance “All the Rivers Run” * ❓

    Time for this to get dusted off and shown as an Election Advert naturally pointing out the benefits of ………………….(can’t think of anything – somebody is to blame for summat).

    *Sigrid Thornton and John Waters star in a 1984 miniseries about a riverboat captain and her lover in circa-1900 Australia.

    I guess that all the above is really not much about not much.

    Meanwhile the cartoons from BK’s wrap were pretty much on the mark and entertaining.

    I just read Lizzie’s post about the Worm Farm but misread it as a Warm Farm. Global Worming in action I do suppose ❗
    ☕😇

    E & OE

  30. Confessions: ‘The polls have narrowed for the coalition because parliament isn’t sitting.’
    That’s the reason I picked 53-47 in Newspoll last week and 52-48 for Essential last night. It will widen when parliament resumes, and widen even more during an election campaign.

  31. Mal is asked if Morrison can win the election. Eyes down, flick from side to side, can’t face the camera, “Ah, well, every election is different…”

  32. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 9:10 am
    DEFENDING 23 HOT SEATS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ASK FOR THE COALITION IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ACCURATE – GAINING THREE MORE SEATS WILL BE HARDER

    Plus they are down to defending seats they’ve never really had to before like Warringah and Higgins.

    Yep, Kooyong; Flinders; Mallee (the local ladies CWA is really ticked off].. he can’t put out all those fires.

    And now Mr Not-so-goodenuff has opened the gate for Labor in his WA WA land seat by taking kickbacks for flogging WA export businesses to Asian business interests…go get em Ian.

  33. Yep – sitting governments’ numbers improve when the HoR is in recess and people can avoid thinking about politics.

    One of the take outs from doorknocking is the number of people who have no idea about what’s happening – who either assume there must be an election coming up in a couple of weeks because you’re there, or who are surprised to find out that there’s an election coming up in a couple of weeks.

    The average person isn’t interested. The complaint I used to get during RGR was not about instability but that the instability dominated the news, which meant that people couldn’t get away from politics. They want stable and boring because then they never hear anything about what’s going on.

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