First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.
Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.
1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”
PB picked it.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-10
Actual: ALP 53 to 47 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 66
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Al Pal
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
52 / 48 Bert
56 / 44 bilko
53 / 47 BK
53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
54 / 46 bug1
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
52 / 48 Confessions
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
51 / 49 DaretoTread
54 / 46 Davidwh
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
57 / 43 Gecko
55 / 45 Goll
56 / 44 grimace
55 / 45 guytaur
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
52 / 48 It’s Time
52 / 48 j341983
53 / 47 John Reidy
56 / 44 KayJay
54 / 46 klasib
53 / 47 Late Riser
53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
54 / 46 Matt31
52 / 48 Mavis Smith
52 / 48 meher baba
54 / 46 Mr Ed
54 / 46 OH
54 / 46 Onebobsworth
54 / 46 Outside Left
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar
55 / 45 Question
53 / 47 Red13
53 / 47 rhwombat
51 / 49 Rossa
52 / 48 SCOUT
53 / 47 SilentMajority
52 / 48 sonar
50 / 50 south
57 / 43 Sprocket_
53 / 47 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
53 / 47 sustainable future
54 / 46 The real Dave
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Upnorth
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Yabba
52 / 48 Zoidlord
Late Riser @ #1297 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:39 pm
Thanks, LR. I suffer from Anxiety Neurosis. I know how to live with it. 🙂
Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1)
ALP = 0 + 39 + 7.5 + 2 + 4.5 (oth)
That KB method was once the Newspoll method (the one that was so accurate in 2016). They would have done it before rounding though.
I have a new motto that I think Julia Banks should run with in Flinders:
‘Punt the Hunt!’ 🙂
Good Newspoll again.
Very disappointed rumour of Labor not backing the Phelps bill. IF true the usual we can’t scare the horses rot will be trotted out about the Boat scare campaign.
The only thing I have to say on it. Is trust Doctors Labor not the political scare campaign.
There are many issues you can win the election on that outrank boats. As Kevin Rudd proved.
The LNP are going to tell those people ad nauseum that you are letting in the boats anyway.
It doesn’t really matter WHAT the ‘Preferred PM’ figure is though, does it? 🙂
Burgey @ #1295 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:39 pm
IDK, these things take a while to be reflected in the polls and the Government’s only been fearmongering about the Phelps bill for a few days I believe.
‘Punt the Hunt!’
There may be a less polite slogan as well.
Read the news about the Labor position wrt the Medivac Bill before you go off.
[‘ALP = 53.9’]
Though math is not my forte, I’ll gladly accept yours.
Steve777 @ #1310 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:47 pm
That thought had crossed my mind. But Julia Banks is a lady so she should use the PC version. 🙂
Burgey @ #1295 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:39 pm
I am starting to think that the rusted on Liberal supporters are giving him the preferred leader vote out of pity, but a few of them can’t vote for the party that 1) turfed their beloved Malcolm, 2)denies climate change and whatever other reasons you would like to add.
Can Doh on SkyFoxNews sees a glass half full..
.@CampbellNewman on The @australian’s most recent Newspoll showing @ScottMorrisonMP as up one point:
‘Ever the optimist, I’m looking at some of the other data in the poll. The PM’s net favourability rating is actually quite good.’
MORE: bit.ly/2N1QtXy #pmlive
So working people who pay tax don’t give a shit about dividend imputation.
My guess is, if anything, they are going to start getting the shits with the Libs for carrying on about it.
I did say if. I said rumour. Given you either back the Senate Bill of Tim Storrer or not.
Rumours strong enough Tim Storrer has commented on it.
I know rounding messes things up, but ALP +1, is minimum +0.5, so for it not to be 54, the last poll must have been less than 53.0 to Labor.
The old newspoll method (as on KBs site) and the PB mean both have it at 53.9, which is something.
sprocket_ @ #1313 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa! Campbell Newman. 😆
Andy Murray @ #1315 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
As I think is becoming increasingly obvious, the Coalition (though I think the Nats are simply fighting for their political lives), are doing everything they can to hang onto their base right now. Nothing else makes sense.
Assuming that the Newspoll sample size is about 2,000, the margin of error is 2%. If about 1,000, it’s around 3%.
Well something of the bleeding obvious … Our Poor-lean is definately not the sharpest knife in the drawer
Why would Sky News have a commentator on federal politics like Campbell Newman? As Qld premier he took a huge electoral win and turned it into an electoral loss within one term.
HA-ha! Nelson Muntz.
Jeez, nath, Pegasus, Quoll, clem attlee and Rex Douglas have been successful in turning people off Labor, haven’t they? 😀
Pyne looked the desperate trying to demonise the profession of doctors to say Labor is bad on boats pokicy. I think he The internal polling is reflecting Newspoll and showing their scare campaign on the economy with Framking Credits has blown up in their face v
LNP loses on the economy as Rudd showed they lose the election.
Bug, I’ve been thinking the polls are over-egging the Libs for a while now. Since about the time Newspoll changed 🙂
Turnbull was never 49-51.
Kevin Bonham on Twitter says that 5% for One Nation is the worst vote for it in Newspoll since late 2016, so make of that what you will.
Yeah but Can Do Newman the Can’t did some unbelieveable things when it came to increases in sales of baseball bats prior to the State Election.
I think there might be a new wave of baseball bat sales happening right about now
The positive on the obviously inconsequential “better pm” figure is that, during the election campaign proper where Shorten will receive more equal media coverage along with his troops including because of policy announcements, there is scope to improve this marking
From my observations the marker where Labor have a significant advantage is the ranking of the Cabinet and outer Cabinet
Those who will determine a change in government do not view Unions with any great affection but Shorten leads a team which is not Morrison and his team, Morrison being an object of ridicule along with significant of his Ministerial team starting from those Abbott endorsed
Millennial @ #1327 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:57 pm
More good news. Having seen the desperate utterances of Hanson the past weeks it’s clear she’s struggling to get airtime. Parliament resuming will give her that opportunity however.
Ha. Labor looked strong backing the bill and Franking Credits and Banks dominating the headlines.
Showing boats are precisely a scare campaign that Labor should not be wedged on.
Its the economy stupid.
Maybe Campbell is thinking about this …
Queensland election 2015: Campbell Newman enjoys surge in support in two new polls
The latest Newspoll in Saturday’s Weekend Australian showed the LNP improving its position, 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.
Updated 11 Jan 2015, 12:52am
I think Essential had Labor at 36, but Newspoll is 39. Quite a difference.
Confessions @ #1228 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:51 pm
That is what really gets me angry. Just when the Labor has its foot on the Coalition’s neck and is ready to administer the coup-de-grace, the damned Greens come along and pull the Libs arse out of the fire, and then hide the bastards under those voluminous Green skirts and capes of hypocrisy.
guytaur @ #1306 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:16 pm
Read the facts before reporting rumour.
The ALP is (probably) set to propose that the Minister have the last say on Security grounds. That decision can be appealed, all the way to the High Court. That path is not available at this time because the Coalition blocked it.
This is why the Gov’t is squealing. Their decision will be publicly scrutinised. They will have to mount a case for refusal. At the moment it is done and dusted with a a stroke of the Minister’s pen, no appeal rights.
It is not restarting the boats which worry them, it is scrutiny.