First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.
Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.
Gecko @ #1192 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:52 pm
They are desperate, not that that is a valid excuse.
They ‘weaponise’ anything and everything possible, cast aside conventions as well as basic civil conduct and will booby trap anything within reach to leave a mess for, hopefully an incoming Labor Government.
Situation normal.
What is an open question is whether voters will tolerate it, fall for it or cheer it. Sadly its hard to have much confidence in their verdict, given past circumstances.
We know most of the MSM will either cheer it or just accept as more dross ‘fill’ to their crappy offering.
Late Riser:
Here is Shayne Neumann earlier today. Not exactly as The Age is reporting.
https://www.9news.com.au/2019/02/10/08/31/change-would-end-offshore-system-minister
itsthevibe @ #1211 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
Don’t be silly !
😉
EB
Yes it is clear now that ScumMo had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the RC, and he will now have to be dragged kicking and screaming to implementing any of it.
The REAL response to the Gillette ‘masculinity’ ad —
‘Before watching the ad, 42% of consumers said they agreed Gillette “shared their values.” After watching, that figure increased to 71%.
65% said the ad made them more or much more likely to purchase Gillette.
84% of women and 77% of men responded positively or neutral to the campaign.’
https://www.upworthy.com/turns-out-almost-everyone-loved-that-controversial-gillette-ad-about-toxic-masculinity?c=ufb1
I get a sense that Labor are heading for a sensible position on the medical transfer bill. Hopefully a position that will still give the Minister the final decision, but add some more transparency. As I said the other day, I think to support the bill in its current form would be a mistake, one that Labor seems less likely to make.
Thanks Confessions. That article in The Age seems cobbled together for a particular perspective. (Busy with dinner, so I’ll have to wait and think about it later.)
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 6:44 pm
More one-sided commentary. Have you read some of the things nath has written!?! He identifies as a Green you know!?!
___________________
In the interests of following William’s stated aim of lifting standards I am not going to respond but just note who it is that is forever agitating and bringing up old stuff to generate personal abuse.
I’ll be back later but here is the full list of Newspoll guesses. I hope I haven’t missed anyone.
PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 63
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Al Pal
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
52 / 48 Bert
56 / 44 bilko
53 / 47 BK
53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
54 / 46 bug1
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
52 / 48 Confessions
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
54 / 46 Davidwh
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
57 / 43 Gecko
55 / 45 Goll
56 / 44 grimace
55 / 45 guytaur
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
52 / 48 It’s Time
52 / 48 j341983
53 / 47 John Reidy
56 / 44 KayJay
54 / 46 klasib
53 / 47 Late Riser
53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
54 / 46 Matt31
52 / 48 Mavis Smith
52 / 48 meher baba
54 / 46 Mr Ed
54 / 46 OH
54 / 46 Onebobsworth
54 / 46 Outside Left
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar
55 / 45 Question
53 / 47 Red13
53 / 47 rhwombat
51 / 49 Rossa
52 / 48 SCOUT
53 / 47 SilentMajority
57 / 43 Sprocket_
53 / 47 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
53 / 47 sustainable future
54 / 46 The real Dave
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Upnorth
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Yabba
52 / 48 Zoidlord
The 9 Network News Service in Melbourne had 3 or 4 successive items fronted by Commonwealth Government Ministers – spruiking Government policies
My WIFE, who is non political, went to the TV and turned it off!
I continued to eat my excellent dinner – to which she also returned
I think Dan may be a touch optimistic 🙂
“Let’s wait and see what transpires rather than jump with alarm at everything written by coalition aligned or coalition primed journalists. ”
With all the crap and confusion about to fly in the coming week, probably a good move. 🙂
Crap and confusion, situation normal
Tim Wilson how do you live with yourself?
Observer
Channel nine also had a couple of campaign ads by the liberals re Shorten destroying housing market and negative gearing
Serious question, while awaiting a Newspoll (hopefully) –
Assuming Labor win a May election, who will be Liberal leader and deputy leader afterwards, and who will be Nationals leader?
I’m going with – Abbott, Frydenberg, Littleproud.
If Abbott loses his seat – can’t see Frydenberg getting the top job. Maybe Morrison would try and stay on, saying he “had a go” but never really “got a go” (helped by lack of anyone acceptable to the Right of sufficient experience)
Looking at recent reporting on the factions of the Liberals it seems that Dutton would of course be the favourite of the conservatives, Pyne or Bishop of the moderates. Based upon the last vote it seems that the winner depends on the group of NSW members that are loyal to Morrison, how will they vote if he’s gone? You’d think they’d back the moderate candidate but you never know. I guess it depends on whose still standing. Pyne would be the best bet in my book.
C@tmomma @ #1206 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:55 pm
Cat
I was trying to be FAIR ie not raise issues of the past to keep objectivity. It is the SAME process i started with the policies and will continue.
What i am trying to say, patiently is that is there are five substantial policy areas where Labor aligns with the coalition as opposed to the greens, those of you who are fair minded will agree that there ARE significant differences and STOP attacking people like Peg who say that the two parties are the same.
Perhaps if we find that the ALP and Greens are together on say 15 issues and different on 5 then you can say that same same is not fair, but if say it ends up being 5 5 it is less clear cut.
Look Cat using numbers is really the ONLY way to keep some objectivity and prevent the sort of circular and never ending carry on that we can get here. So list and quantify and stop screeching at one another.
I think Newspoll will be 52-48 2PP ALP
deleted double post…sorry
Because I am in a pessimistic mood I am going 51/49 2PP ALP
For all the people saying that two parties(Labor-Green, Labor-Liberals, Green-Liberals) are the same because some bills they vote together on, I think the key difference is what did the third party do.
If all three parties voted the same then you can’t really use that to say the other party is different.
We went to the trailer-park soirée tonight and all we discussed was the sardonic(?) Sartre.
Catprog @ #1222 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:11 pm
Its not the number of times parties vote together.
Its the *issues* they vote differently on.
Thats whats important.
Issues!
Here’s hoping for a 50/50 from a bad red neck sample. I got polled about boats this weekend!
Hopefully Scotty will rush to a crushing defeat and we can have 16 years of progress and climate action.
Mavis
Thanks for last night, appreciated.
Moved on from Kant?
Dutton and Littleprodd as Opposition leaders I reckon IF they lose and IF Dutton keeps his seat.
Plus the timing. A number of times Labor has threatened to have the coalition in a metaphorical choke hold on its hypocrisy on certain issues, and along come the Greens happily voting to back the coalition play.
There was a sky news poll yesterday on retiree rorts commented on here.
Anyone know if the Libs were able to fix it back in their favour?
I thought the name was suss but by golly there is such a department.
.
Department for Exiting the European Union
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union
Poroti, isn’t that a mother in laws website for those whose daughters married Europeans?
They also do divorce settlements.
Negotiations on the future relationship: territorial scope
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union
poroti @ #1230 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
Well with just 47 days to go I hope SOMEONE is preparing.
I doubt it will be the catastrophe they expect but I hope someone is writing omnibus legislation to extend all EU legislation exactly until such time as it is repealed or amended. They could even if rational extend Acts starting in A BC by one year DEF by another etc, so that there is some sort fof ordered process of review- or they do it by time introduced ie thos on the statute books longest get reviwed first (or vica versa)
Will be a bit of an anti-climax if no newspoll tonight
Shadow trader gives his opinion for next week in the stockmarkets –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWf8ZvWrzac
Fulvio,
That poll is on Twitter
Should the government wind back tax concessions on property (negative gearing and capital gains) and shares (dividend tax refunds)?
Currently running at Yes 77%
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1093721169339924480
DaretoTread, I got a laugh out of the story on Britain stockpiling rubber gloves so that customs could continue to search people.
TheAge has turned into another Murdoch rag.
Speculating that Labor will back off of the Refugee Bill.
On Insurance, Lloyds of London “names” underwrote the risk by providing Bank Guarantees – and for a considerable period of time received a premium for providing that comfort
Then, in the early 90’s there was a call under those Bank Guarantees which caused a problem for some including a former pm from Western Victoria
To be a “Lloyd’s name” carried a status of some significance
I actually put to some that if a call was being made under the Guarantee, then there should be a settlement where the funds were handed over in exchange for the Guarantee
A contingent liability being a Bank Guarantee morphed to a line of credit (so debt) and this was a consideration on a raft of fronts
Further the fee for issuing a Bank Guarantee was 1.5% PA
The Guarantees were for multiples of millions of AUD’s
Lloyds of course was a Company with its own Capital and Reserves – and business model which operated in the normal course of events hence premiums paid to Lloyd’s “names”
The fall out from the call had differing ultimate outcomes from “Name” to “Name”
They were all very rich people but some were more rich than others including access to liquid assets – others were asset rich but cash poor (by comparison).
John R, thanks.
Anyone for free internet for 3 months ?
.
.
Mad as hell promotion: free internet available in NSW electorate
Want free NBN for three months? Just display an anti-Nationals Party corflute in your front yard for the state and federal election campaigns and it’s yours.
https://outline.com/m9FDKk
Lot of talk recently about extending the election date to late May, or even June.
What if it’s a ruse?
The latest Lib onslaught – boats, dividends, neg gearing – may just be a way to harvest early postal votes for a March or April election.
Yes, zoomster, tomorrow could be Foucault?
If “having a guess” is any indication, this Newspoll is the 2nd most anticipated by PB since guessing started in September. By that metric the most anticipated Newspoll was October 28, last year.
poroti @ #1242 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
Brilliant idea.
And the next day, Marquis De Sade …..
I think he’s trying to ‘fix’ the PB mean 🙂
C@T
me too! put me through a shredder and mix me with mulch.
Fargo,wood chipper
https://youtu.be/_bA6RmsV6R0
Confessions, I’ve had a chance to read the 9 News piece you linked to and think some more. My opinion is essentially unchanged. The Age is a player and best ignored. Tomorrow will tell. Thanks for the link. 🙂
Question @ #1248 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:58 pm
You can mess with the mean, but the median stands firm.