BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. Gecko @ #1192 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:52 pm

    So, what the government is saying is that they can’t defend the nation against a few hundred sick people they have in their care. How incompetent! Their border security must be a tenuous arrangment if the entire country is imperiled by a few medical practitioners doing what we’ve trained them to do.

    They are desperate, not that that is a valid excuse.

    They ‘weaponise’ anything and everything possible, cast aside conventions as well as basic civil conduct and will booby trap anything within reach to leave a mess for, hopefully an incoming Labor Government.

    Situation normal.

    What is an open question is whether voters will tolerate it, fall for it or cheer it. Sadly its hard to have much confidence in their verdict, given past circumstances.

    We know most of the MSM will either cheer it or just accept as more dross ‘fill’ to their crappy offering.

  2. EB

    Yes it is clear now that ScumMo had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the RC, and he will now have to be dragged kicking and screaming to implementing any of it.

  3. The REAL response to the Gillette ‘masculinity’ ad —

    ‘Before watching the ad, 42% of consumers said they agreed Gillette “shared their values.” After watching, that figure increased to 71%.
    65% said the ad made them more or much more likely to purchase Gillette.
    84% of women and 77% of men responded positively or neutral to the campaign.’

    https://www.upworthy.com/turns-out-almost-everyone-loved-that-controversial-gillette-ad-about-toxic-masculinity?c=ufb1

  4. I get a sense that Labor are heading for a sensible position on the medical transfer bill. Hopefully a position that will still give the Minister the final decision, but add some more transparency. As I said the other day, I think to support the bill in its current form would be a mistake, one that Labor seems less likely to make.

  5. Thanks Confessions. That article in The Age seems cobbled together for a particular perspective. (Busy with dinner, so I’ll have to wait and think about it later.)

  6. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 6:44 pm

    More one-sided commentary. Have you read some of the things nath has written!?! He identifies as a Green you know!?!
    ___________________
    In the interests of following William’s stated aim of lifting standards I am not going to respond but just note who it is that is forever agitating and bringing up old stuff to generate personal abuse.

  7. I’ll be back later but here is the full list of Newspoll guesses. I hope I haven’t missed anyone.

    PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 63

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 Bert
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    52 / 48 j341983
    53 / 47 John Reidy
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    52 / 48 meher baba
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 OH
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    52 / 48 SCOUT
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  8. The 9 Network News Service in Melbourne had 3 or 4 successive items fronted by Commonwealth Government Ministers – spruiking Government policies

    My WIFE, who is non political, went to the TV and turned it off!

    I continued to eat my excellent dinner – to which she also returned

  9. “Let’s wait and see what transpires rather than jump with alarm at everything written by coalition aligned or coalition primed journalists. ”

    With all the crap and confusion about to fly in the coming week, probably a good move. 🙂

  10. Serious question, while awaiting a Newspoll (hopefully) –

    Assuming Labor win a May election, who will be Liberal leader and deputy leader afterwards, and who will be Nationals leader?

    I’m going with – Abbott, Frydenberg, Littleproud.

    If Abbott loses his seat – can’t see Frydenberg getting the top job. Maybe Morrison would try and stay on, saying he “had a go” but never really “got a go” (helped by lack of anyone acceptable to the Right of sufficient experience)

  11. Looking at recent reporting on the factions of the Liberals it seems that Dutton would of course be the favourite of the conservatives, Pyne or Bishop of the moderates. Based upon the last vote it seems that the winner depends on the group of NSW members that are loyal to Morrison, how will they vote if he’s gone? You’d think they’d back the moderate candidate but you never know. I guess it depends on whose still standing. Pyne would be the best bet in my book.

  12. C@tmomma @ #1206 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:55 pm

    And if you are just setting the parameters as that which occurs during the election campaign, that is just as silly, dtt. It’s not a game. Try looking at the substance instead of simply the numbers.

    Cat

    I was trying to be FAIR ie not raise issues of the past to keep objectivity. It is the SAME process i started with the policies and will continue.

    What i am trying to say, patiently is that is there are five substantial policy areas where Labor aligns with the coalition as opposed to the greens, those of you who are fair minded will agree that there ARE significant differences and STOP attacking people like Peg who say that the two parties are the same.

    Perhaps if we find that the ALP and Greens are together on say 15 issues and different on 5 then you can say that same same is not fair, but if say it ends up being 5 5 it is less clear cut.

    Look Cat using numbers is really the ONLY way to keep some objectivity and prevent the sort of circular and never ending carry on that we can get here. So list and quantify and stop screeching at one another.

  13. For all the people saying that two parties(Labor-Green, Labor-Liberals, Green-Liberals) are the same because some bills they vote together on, I think the key difference is what did the third party do.

    If all three parties voted the same then you can’t really use that to say the other party is different.

  14. Catprog @ #1222 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    For all the people saying that two parties(Labor-Green, Labor-Liberals, Green-Liberals) are the same because some bills they vote together on, I think the key difference is what did the third party do.

    If all three parties voted the same then you can’t really use that to say the other party is different.

    Its not the number of times parties vote together.

    Its the *issues* they vote differently on.

    Thats whats important.

    Issues!

  15. Here’s hoping for a 50/50 from a bad red neck sample. I got polled about boats this weekend!
    Hopefully Scotty will rush to a crushing defeat and we can have 16 years of progress and climate action.

  16. Its the *issues* they vote differently on.

    Thats whats important.

    Plus the timing. A number of times Labor has threatened to have the coalition in a metaphorical choke hold on its hypocrisy on certain issues, and along come the Greens happily voting to back the coalition play.

  17. There was a sky news poll yesterday on retiree rorts commented on here.

    Anyone know if the Libs were able to fix it back in their favour?

  18. poroti @ #1230 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    I thought the name was suss but by golly there is such a department.
    .
    Department for Exiting the European Union
    https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union

    Well with just 47 days to go I hope SOMEONE is preparing.

    I doubt it will be the catastrophe they expect but I hope someone is writing omnibus legislation to extend all EU legislation exactly until such time as it is repealed or amended. They could even if rational extend Acts starting in A BC by one year DEF by another etc, so that there is some sort fof ordered process of review- or they do it by time introduced ie thos on the statute books longest get reviwed first (or vica versa)

  19. On Insurance, Lloyds of London “names” underwrote the risk by providing Bank Guarantees – and for a considerable period of time received a premium for providing that comfort

    Then, in the early 90’s there was a call under those Bank Guarantees which caused a problem for some including a former pm from Western Victoria

    To be a “Lloyd’s name” carried a status of some significance

    I actually put to some that if a call was being made under the Guarantee, then there should be a settlement where the funds were handed over in exchange for the Guarantee

    A contingent liability being a Bank Guarantee morphed to a line of credit (so debt) and this was a consideration on a raft of fronts

    Further the fee for issuing a Bank Guarantee was 1.5% PA

    The Guarantees were for multiples of millions of AUD’s

    Lloyds of course was a Company with its own Capital and Reserves – and business model which operated in the normal course of events hence premiums paid to Lloyd’s “names”

    The fall out from the call had differing ultimate outcomes from “Name” to “Name”

    They were all very rich people but some were more rich than others including access to liquid assets – others were asset rich but cash poor (by comparison).

  20. Anyone for free internet for 3 months ?
    .
    .
    Mad as hell promotion: free internet available in NSW electorate

    Want free NBN for three months? Just display an anti-Nationals Party corflute in your front yard for the state and federal election campaigns and it’s yours.
    https://outline.com/m9FDKk

  21. Lot of talk recently about extending the election date to late May, or even June.

    What if it’s a ruse?

    The latest Lib onslaught – boats, dividends, neg gearing – may just be a way to harvest early postal votes for a March or April election.

  22. If “having a guess” is any indication, this Newspoll is the 2nd most anticipated by PB since guessing started in September. By that metric the most anticipated Newspoll was October 28, last year.

  23. Davidwh
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 7:22 pm
    I think Dan may be a touch optimistic

    I think he’s trying to ‘fix’ the PB mean 🙂

  24. Confessions, I’ve had a chance to read the 9 News piece you linked to and think some more. My opinion is essentially unchanged. The Age is a player and best ignored. Tomorrow will tell. Thanks for the link. 🙂

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