First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.
Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.
Davidwh @ #1211 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:22 pm
If you’re gonna dream, dream big. 😉
A conservative tweeter who is a Sky News watcher (and is reliable on such matters) reports that Chris Kenny has said there is no movement in Newspoll.
Sprocket
“Could this be legit? Or fake news‘
This is the original site for that image
https://thebugonline.com.au/2019/01/15/sco-mo-surges-in-late-poll/
It has Labor 54 / 46 2 party preferred
Sceptic – that is a crude recycled satirical image/story.
Need a James J early Newspoll reportage here
As satire goes, it is pathetically obvious,
No change being reported on Sky.
Great programme tonight (Qld time) on Aunty, narrated by Humprhries. Such a shame he made his money by sending up those on the margins.
Sceptic
That’s a fake poll from a satirical site. Posted in January, according to Dr Bonham.
Mavis Smith @ #1259 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Sucks to be a crab!
I am going to use reinforce gardening gloves when I spread mulch in future.
@Sceptic
Kevin says it is fake poll.
No movement. Its 53-47 as we head to a May 25 election if everything goes to plan.
Kenny “Not much in Newspoll. Which is kinda good news for Scott Morrison and the Coalition because they jumped up a fair bit……..”
What, no Wilson inspired surge to the Liberals, surfing in on the greedy geriatric vote?!
The greedy geriatrics all vote “Liberal”. The good ones like me vote Labor or Green.
I’m going to close the Newspoll guesses and post the full list later tonight, either here or on a New Thread.
Late Riser:
I don’t quite get what you mean, but I will say that I saw him on the Goldie some six months ago. Out of character, he’s quite boring.
Peter Costello-led Fairfax jumped the gun, perhaps?
Article title has changed to “Bill Shorten warned against backdown in stand-off over refugee medical bill,” and claims of Shorten “backing down” have now been omitted.
Yeah, I’m in that demographic as well, but I’ll vote Liberal when hell freezes over.
It seems Wilson miscalculated bigly.
Mad as hell promotion: free internet available in NSW electorate
Anyone but the Nationals promotion
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/mad-as-hell-promotion-free-internet-available-in-nsw-electorate-20190208-p50wlm.html
Mavis Smith @ #1269 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:20 pm
I was referring to the scene with the moulting crabs and subsequent cannibalism.
Now official
53/47
The newspoll or bludger track will show labor in a position to win … but I have a sneaking suspicion that they are over estimating the liberal position……. I think there will be a lot of put the coalition last votes…… such actions can well result in alp victory in marginal seats and maybe up to half a dozen safer seats like Deakin in Victoria but also people like Abbott, Joyce, Hunt Pyne Wilson could lose as well mainly to various shades of independents
53/47
53:47 – no change.
ScoMoFaux up 2. Cue pantswetting on Holt St.
Confirmation from GhostWhoVotes:
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1094544370823454720
Looking better, for no change…
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1) #auspol
Primaries: Labor up a point, ON down a point:
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1) #auspol
https://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes?lang=en
There you go. Status quo. Contrary to Chris Kenny’s view, I reckon Labor, after a difficult two weeks, should be very pleased with that. It suggests that a large part of the swing to Labor might be locked in.
37 primary is dreadfull for LNP
Labor up one on primaries
Newspoll
TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primary ALP 39 (+1) L/NP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1) OTH 10 (0)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-coalition-staring-at-bruising-poll-defeat/news-story/be027b742362f8cd3705f91c336b3718
The Coalition has held on to the electoral gains made over summer but still remains on course for a significant election defeat despite a lift in Scott Morrison’s approval ratings.
An exclusive Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow shows Labor retaining a commanding lead over the Coalition with a two-party preferred vote of 53/47.
As both parties prepare for a pitched battle over asylum seekers and the economy when Parliament returns this Tuesday, Mr Morrison has maintained his lead over Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister after widening the gap two points to 44/35 in the latest fortnightly poll.
53-47, Labor PV up on to 39, Coalition on 37 PV unchanged.
Who guessed 53 / 47?
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Al Pal
53 / 47 BK
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 John Reidy
53 / 47 Late Riser
53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar
55 / 45 Question
53 / 47 Red13
53 / 47 rhwombat
53 / 47 SilentMajority
53 / 47 Socrates
53 / 47 steve davis
53 / 47 sustainable future
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Upnorth
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Yabba
Full list to follow.
Seems any flack expected from the weathfare scare campaign is cancelled out by an untenable Wilson, and that huggy Nat
Pollbludger name to be change to Pollbedwetters after earlier concerns.
Phew! Goodbye butterflies in my stomach! 😀
interesting sceptic……. exactly the point I am making ……… this magnifies the swing
Got you, Late Riser.
If coalition is on 37 … and if Nats are on 4 like with Essential … the Libs are on 33 or 34. Disaster territory – no matter how the Oz tries to dress it up
Jeez, sending out the Feral Twins, Dutton and SnarlMo, really worked for the Coalition! 😆
Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1)
Labor’s gain on primaries possibly offset by ON dropping a point.
Can’t believe Morrison logged an improved approval rating. Got to be the boats thing. Nothing else makes sense. Labor should ditch Phelps’ bill. There’s more votes in doing so.
It’s harsh and it’s brutal. But they have to be in it to win.
In other news, the franking credits scare campaign plainly going nowhere.
C@tmomma, take care of yourself too.
Liking the leader writer on the online SmearStralian site – how long will this stay up?
KB method;
LNP = 46.1 (37+(0.181×9)+(0.508×15)−0.13)
ALP = 53.9
Re Sprocket_ @9:32.
In think we can guess what The Australian will give prominence to
“Massive Surge for PM”?
Great news, and it will only get more fraught for dem no-goods, once parliament begins tomorrow.