BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. A conservative tweeter who is a Sky News watcher (and is reliable on such matters) reports that Chris Kenny has said there is no movement in Newspoll.

  2. Great programme tonight (Qld time) on Aunty, narrated by Humprhries. Such a shame he made his money by sending up those on the margins.

  3. Kenny “Not much in Newspoll. Which is kinda good news for Scott Morrison and the Coalition because they jumped up a fair bit……..”

  4. Late Riser:

    I don’t quite get what you mean, but I will say that I saw him on the Goldie some six months ago. Out of character, he’s quite boring.

  5. Peter Costello-led Fairfax jumped the gun, perhaps?

    Article title has changed to “Bill Shorten warned against backdown in stand-off over refugee medical bill,” and claims of Shorten “backing down” have now been omitted.

  6. Yeah, I’m in that demographic as well, but I’ll vote Liberal when hell freezes over.

    It seems Wilson miscalculated bigly.

  7. The newspoll or bludger track will show labor in a position to win … but I have a sneaking suspicion that they are over estimating the liberal position……. I think there will be a lot of put the coalition last votes…… such actions can well result in alp victory in marginal seats and maybe up to half a dozen safer seats like Deakin in Victoria but also people like Abbott, Joyce, Hunt Pyne Wilson could lose as well mainly to various shades of independents

  8. There you go. Status quo. Contrary to Chris Kenny’s view, I reckon Labor, after a difficult two weeks, should be very pleased with that. It suggests that a large part of the swing to Labor might be locked in.

  9. Newspoll
    TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
    Primary ALP 39 (+1) L/NP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1) OTH 10 (0)

    The Coalition has held on to the electoral gains made over summer but still remains on course for a significant election defeat despite a lift in Scott Morrison’s approval ratings.

    An exclusive Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow shows Labor retaining a commanding lead over the Coalition with a two-party preferred vote of 53/47.

    As both parties prepare for a pitched battle over asylum seekers and the economy when Parliament returns this Tuesday, Mr Morrison has maintained his lead over Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister after widening the gap two points to 44/35 in the latest fortnightly poll.

  10. Who guessed 53 / 47?

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    53 / 47 BK
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    53 / 47
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    53 / 47 John Reidy
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    53 / 47 Socrates
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

    Full list to follow.

  11. If coalition is on 37 … and if Nats are on 4 like with Essential … the Libs are on 33 or 34. Disaster territory – no matter how the Oz tries to dress it up

  12. Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1)

    Labor’s gain on primaries possibly offset by ON dropping a point.

    Can’t believe Morrison logged an improved approval rating. Got to be the boats thing. Nothing else makes sense. Labor should ditch Phelps’ bill. There’s more votes in doing so.

    It’s harsh and it’s brutal. But they have to be in it to win.

    In other news, the franking credits scare campaign plainly going nowhere.

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