New South Wales election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s New South Wales election guide – including, together with much else, a poll trend measure pointing to a tight race.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the New South Wales state election is now open for business. It offers:

• Ninety-three finely tooled electorate profiles, including historical background, demographic analysis and many a tale of preselection bloodletting, to say nothing of the usual panoply of charts, tables and booth results maps;

• A Legislative Council guide that you are encouraged not to neglect, because sorting through all that lot was a nightmare;

• A comprehensive overview of the situation;

• A poll trend feature.

The latter shows Labor with a 51.1-48.9 lead on two-party preferred, but that’s probably a mite generous to them, as the “others” pool looks to have swollen with defectors from the Coalition to One Nation. No primary vote trend measure for One Nation is available, but it’s telling that the Coalition is down 8.3% on the primary vote and Labor up only 1.7%.

Needless to say, all this involved a fair bit of effort – if you think it worth rewarding, you are encouraged to give the PressPatron donation facility at the top of the page a workout, through which either one-off or monthly donations are always very greatly appreciated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

30 comments on “New South Wales election guide”

  1. Thank you William for all the hard work – although I think you loved every minute of it!
    The trend is still good – should be a very compelling election night.

  2. It’s good to see some polling data points available this time, in contrast to the wasteland of the recent Victorian election. If they are borne out, and the Labor vote rises by less than the coalition vote falls, it will be yet another confirming instance of the long-term drift away from the major parties.

  3. Very thorough William. More than I want to know – though if I still lived in NSW I’d probably be devouring every little detail. But in the first bar chart on the overview page the Nationals bar seems to be twice the proper length.

  4. “it’s telling that the Coalition is down 8.3% on the primary vote and Labor up only 1.7%”. Let me make a hunchy guess – this will be at least as much because of the Nationals vote drifting to Shooters/etc as any drift from Libs/Nats to ON. And having torn themselves away from their lifelong loyalty to the Nats, some (not a majority, but a biggish “some”) of those voters will then give a preference to Labor ahead of Nats.

  5. Gladys promises a stadium for Orange but only if the voters replace SFF with National.

    The NSW Government is facing a backlash in the marginal seat of Orange after Premier Gladys Berejiklian made a conditional promise to build a $25 million stadium and sports centre.

    The Premier travelled to the central west on Wednesday — the first time she has been to the region since the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party (SFFP) took the seat from the Coalition by a mere 56 votes in a November 2016 by-election.

    Agreeing the promise is an “election carrot”, Ms Berejiklian said the stadium would not be built unless Nationals candidate Kate Hazelton was elected.

  6. Coffs map link still broken WB.

    And North Shore
    Upper Hunter
    Myall Lakes
    Port Macquarie
    South Coast
    East Hills
    Castle Hill
    Baulkham Hills
    Seven Hills
    Mount Druit
    Blue Mountains

  7. Interesting trend in the opinion polls: Relentless decline of the Liberals since early 2016…

    It looks like the mind of the voters is clear and getting clearer…..

  8. William,

    Really great stuff again.

    In the overview you say Labor picked up two seats on the central coast. In fact they picked up three – Wyong, The Entrance and Gosford.

  9. “Agreeing the promise is an “election carrot”, Ms Berejiklian said the stadium would not be built unless Nationals candidate Kate Hazelton was elected.”

    I’m surprised this sort of bribing of electors is legal. Saying “A Coalition Government will build the stadium but Labor won’t” is fair enough (assuming that Labor has no plans to build it), but to make it conditional on the local vote? That’s got to be a step too far.

    Of course no independent or minor party member could build a major piece of infrastructure, just a major party in office. This is dirty tricks against a minor party (not that I have any time for SFF) and needs to be stomped on.

    P.S. I am assuming here that Orange doesn’t have a perfectly good stadium that Gladys wants to pull down and replace, as per her usual approach to infrastructure.

  10. Keep an eye on Dubbo. An open contest with Troy Grant retiring and a high profile independent in the field. However I reckon Labor’s Steve Lawrence has a real shot.

  11. Hi William,

    Your friendly neighbourhood pedant here.

    It’s only that it’s my electorate that i know this but you have located the Dudley booth in Charlestown in the middle of the Awabakal nature reserve. It’s actually due east of the whitebridge booth.

    Not expecting you to bother changing it. in the scheme of things it’s irrelevant. just thought i’d let you know.

  12. Great work.

    One very small issue. The maps are a a challenge when both Nationals and Green parties are shown in Green, and the tone of green represents how strong the seat is for the incumbent.
    It’s particularly an issue when the Greens have rural seats – such as Ballina.

    How this could be fixed?

    Don’t know, but I suspect some here on PB will suggest one or both parties change…

  13. Coffs Harbour is missing a candidate.

    Dr Sally Townley, a well-known and well-respected Coffs Harbour City councillor, has ditched her bid as the preselected Greens candidate for the federal seat of Cowper to stand as an independent at state level in Coffs Harbour. She’s got a far higher local profile than any of the other candidates, and is a reasonable chance of making it to the last two in the count, particularly if Labor’s Tony Judge doesn’t put up much of a fight (he’s been a bit better than the usual invisible Labor candidates up here so far, but only a bit.)

  14. Yes, it does seem that local factors will be much more important than the overall swing. Up here on the Coffs Coast, the big issue is the the Nationals doing a bait and switch with the design for the Coffs Harbour bypass, waiting till after funding was secured to replace the expected ground-level highway (using tunnels through high ridgelines) with the inferior option of massive cuttings through the ridges (with the spoil used to elevate the highway to where it will be uglier and noisier.) It’s an ultra-local issue, but it’s absolutely dominating the election campaign here.

    The Nationals are furiously backpedalling, but rather than revert the design have put a consultation committee in place that won’t report back until after the election. Community anger is white hot, and there’s a credible independent running. The Nats will probably get away with it, because the chosen replacement for Andrew Fraser, Gurmesh Singh, comes across as likeable and competent, but without securing a promise to abandon the city-wrecking bypass design, he could be in trouble.

    Meanwhile, in Oxley just a few k’s to the south of Coffs, the Roads Minister who’s cocking up the Coffs Bypass plans, Melinda Pavey, isn’t facing any of the same pressures or backlash because (as usual) she’s effectively running unopposed. Name recognition for her opponents is for all intents and purposes zero. I can’t recall any of them even submitting a puff piece setting out their stall to the local papers. It’s clear that Labor and the Greens aren’t devoting resources to what they consider a lost cause, and as a result, one of the state’s lowest-income electorates will stick with the party of the rich. Go figure.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *