BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. PB picked it.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-10
    Actual: ALP 53 to 47 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 66

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 Bert
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    51 / 49 DaretoTread
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    52 / 48 j341983
    53 / 47 John Reidy
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    52 / 48 meher baba
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 OH
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    52 / 48 SCOUT
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    52 / 48 sonar
    50 / 50 south
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  2. Bug,
    That KB method was once the Newspoll method (the one that was so accurate in 2016). They would have done it before rounding though.

  3. Good Evening.

    Good Newspoll again.

    Very disappointed rumour of Labor not backing the Phelps bill. IF true the usual we can’t scare the horses rot will be trotted out about the Boat scare campaign.

    The only thing I have to say on it. Is trust Doctors Labor not the political scare campaign.

    There are many issues you can win the election on that outrank boats. As Kevin Rudd proved.
    The LNP are going to tell those people ad nauseum that you are letting in the boats anyway.

  4. Burgey @ #1295 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:39 pm

    Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (-1)

    Labor’s gain on primaries possibly offset by ON dropping a point.

    Can’t believe Morrison logged an improved approval rating. Got to be the boats thing. Nothing else makes sense.

    IDK, these things take a while to be reflected in the polls and the Government’s only been fearmongering about the Phelps bill for a few days I believe.

  5. Burgey @ #1295 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:39 pm

    Can’t believe Morrison logged an improved approval rating. Got to be the boats thing. Nothing else makes sense.
    .

    I am starting to think that the rusted on Liberal supporters are giving him the preferred leader vote out of pity, but a few of them can’t vote for the party that 1) turfed their beloved Malcolm, 2)denies climate change and whatever other reasons you would like to add.

  6. Can Doh on SkyFoxNews sees a glass half full..

    .@CampbellNewman on The @australian’s most recent Newspoll showing @ScottMorrisonMP as up one point:

    ‘Ever the optimist, I’m looking at some of the other data in the poll. The PM’s net favourability rating is actually quite good.’

    MORE: bit.ly/2N1QtXy #pmlive

  7. So working people who pay tax don’t give a shit about dividend imputation.

    My guess is, if anything, they are going to start getting the shits with the Libs for carrying on about it.

  8. Cat

    I did say if. I said rumour. Given you either back the Senate Bill of Tim Storrer or not.

    Rumours strong enough Tim Storrer has commented on it.

  9. Question;
    I know rounding messes things up, but ALP +1, is minimum +0.5, so for it not to be 54, the last poll must have been less than 53.0 to Labor.
    The old newspoll method (as on KBs site) and the PB mean both have it at 53.9, which is something.

  10. sprocket_ @ #1313 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:50 pm

    Can Doh on SkyFoxNews sees a glass half full..

    .@CampbellNewman on The @australian’s most recent Newspoll showing @ScottMorrisonMP as up one point:

    ‘Ever the optimist, I’m looking at some of the other data in the poll. The PM’s net favourability rating is actually quite good.’

    MORE: bit.ly/2N1QtXy #pmlive

    Love it.

  11. Andy Murray @ #1315 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    So working people who pay tax don’t give a shit about dividend imputation.

    My guess is, if anything, they are going to start getting the shits with the Libs for carrying on about it.

    As I think is becoming increasingly obvious, the Coalition (though I think the Nats are simply fighting for their political lives), are doing everything they can to hang onto their base right now. Nothing else makes sense.

  12. Why would Sky News have a commentator on federal politics like Campbell Newman? As Qld premier he took a huge electoral win and turned it into an electoral loss within one term.

  13. Cat

    Pyne looked the desperate trying to demonise the profession of doctors to say Labor is bad on boats pokicy. I think he The internal polling is reflecting Newspoll and showing their scare campaign on the economy with Framking Credits has blown up in their face v

    LNP loses on the economy as Rudd showed they lose the election.

  14. Bug, I’ve been thinking the polls are over-egging the Libs for a while now. Since about the time Newspoll changed 🙂

    Turnbull was never 49-51.

  15. Yeah but Can Do Newman the Can’t did some unbelieveable things when it came to increases in sales of baseball bats prior to the State Election.

    I think there might be a new wave of baseball bat sales happening right about now

  16. The positive on the obviously inconsequential “better pm” figure is that, during the election campaign proper where Shorten will receive more equal media coverage along with his troops including because of policy announcements, there is scope to improve this marking

    From my observations the marker where Labor have a significant advantage is the ranking of the Cabinet and outer Cabinet

    Those who will determine a change in government do not view Unions with any great affection but Shorten leads a team which is not Morrison and his team, Morrison being an object of ridicule along with significant of his Ministerial team starting from those Abbott endorsed

  17. Millennial

    Ha. Labor looked strong backing the bill and Franking Credits and Banks dominating the headlines.

    Showing boats are precisely a scare campaign that Labor should not be wedged on.

    Its the economy stupid.

  18. Maybe Campbell is thinking about this …

    Queensland election 2015: Campbell Newman enjoys surge in support in two new polls

    The latest Newspoll in Saturday’s Weekend Australian showed the LNP improving its position, 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.
    Updated 11 Jan 2015, 12:52am

  19. Confessions @ #1228 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Its the *issues* they vote differently on.

    Thats whats important.

    Plus the timing. A number of times Labor has threatened to have the coalition in a metaphorical choke hold on its hypocrisy on certain issues, and along come the Greens happily voting to back the coalition play.

    That is what really gets me angry. Just when the Labor has its foot on the Coalition’s neck and is ready to administer the coup-de-grace, the damned Greens come along and pull the Libs arse out of the fire, and then hide the bastards under those voluminous Green skirts and capes of hypocrisy.

  20. guytaur @ #1306 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:16 pm

    Good Evening.

    Good Newspoll again.

    Very disappointed rumour of Labor not backing the Phelps bill. IF true the usual we can’t scare the horses rot will be trotted out about the Boat scare campaign.

    The only thing I have to say on it. Is trust Doctors Labor not the political scare campaign.

    There are many issues you can win the election on that outrank boats. As Kevin Rudd proved.
    The LNP are going to tell those people ad nauseum that you are letting in the boats anyway.

    Read the facts before reporting rumour.

    The ALP is (probably) set to propose that the Minister have the last say on Security grounds. That decision can be appealed, all the way to the High Court. That path is not available at this time because the Coalition blocked it.

    This is why the Gov’t is squealing. Their decision will be publicly scrutinised. They will have to mount a case for refusal. At the moment it is done and dusted with a a stroke of the Minister’s pen, no appeal rights.

    It is not restarting the boats which worry them, it is scrutiny.

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