BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. As i predicted the other day, Labor runs in fear of xenophobes – again. A failure of leadership and advocacy. why do we keep REFUGEES (they have been found to be so) in indefinite detention. it has nothing to do with drownings at sea and everything to do with pandering to bigots.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-set-to-back-down-in-stand-off-over-refugee-medical-bill-20190210-p50wvb.html

    Morrison will be crowing about this, and the first days back in Parliament – rather than being about the libs losing a vote – are going to be about shorten and labor caving in, flip flopping, not being trust worthy and divisions in labor’s ranks over this decision. They’ll say “Shorten is pretending he won’t weaken border protection, but we know his party wants to – they voted for this in the senate – but he is too gutless to tell the Australian people…. etc etc.”

    shorten has also pissed off the cross bench, meaning his chances of defeating the government on other bills or getting private members bills on issues such as climate and energy will be diminished.

    Just in case you need to call his office to tell him what you think, Shorten’s number is 03 9326 1300 and email bill.shorten.mp@aph.gov.au

  2. I get how kids believe in Father Christmas, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy.

    I get how some people might think there was a second gunman on the grassy knoll.

    I get how some people might think the moon landing was faked.

    I get how some people might think 9/11 was an inside job.

    Hell, I even sort of get how some people might think the earth is flat, or the moon is made of cheese, or there’s a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

    What I do not get is how anybody could possibly think that Labor will do anything but cave in to the government and vote down the Phelps bill.

  3. Since Shorten said he wasn’t going to make up his mind about the Refugee bill until after he’s been briefed tomorrow, I’d suggest they needed to fill column inches and simply extrapolated.

  4. Now this IS current!!

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lonely-unfit-and-hooked-on-air-conditioning-is-this-the-summer-of-the-future-20190208-p50whm.html

    “If we keep relying on air-conditioned spaces as the focal points of activity on hot days, increasingly we will see people … not going to the local park or engaging in their local neighbourhood.”

    Extreme heat can be crippling for those who can’t cool their homes, such as people on low incomes.

    “People in social housing can’t put in an air-conditioning unit or install a ceiling fan. They would literally lie on the floor in the coolest part of the house and not move for hours,” Crabtree says.

    “We heard from people who, on a hot day, can’t get out of the house because they don’t have transport options that are affordable and cool.”

    Blast-furnace ambient temperatures also turn people off physical exercise.

  5. sustainable future @ #1163 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    As a predicted the other day, Labor runs in fear of xenophobes – again. A failure of leadership and advocacy. why do we keep REFUGEES (they have been found to be so) in indefinite detention. it has nothing to do with drownings at sea and everything to do with pandering to bigots.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-set-to-back-down-in-stand-off-over-refugee-medical-bill-20190210-p50wvb.html

    Morrison will be crowing about this, and the first days back in Parliament – rather than being about the libs losing a vote – are going to be about shorten and labor caving in, flip flopping, not being trust worthy and divisions in labor’s ranks over this decision. They’ll say “Shorten is pretending he won’t weaken border protection, but we know his party wants to – they voted for this in the senate – but he is too gutless to tell the Australian people…. etc etc.”

    shorten has also pissed off the cross bench, meaning his chances of defeating the government on other bills or getting private members bills on issues such as climate and energy will be diminished.

    Just in case you need to call his office to tell him what you think, Shorten’s number is 03 9326 1300 and email bill.shorten.mp@aph.gov.au

    I think Morrison will be spitting chips that Labor seems to be about to cave in.

    I also think Bill Shorten will be very comfortable in dodging the debate.

    An appalling state of affairs.

  6. I’d be unfussed if Labor seeks an amendment which saw the medical board’s decision go back to the Minister and the Minister have to explain if he diverges from this.

    It would answer the government’s criticism and have the same end results – a Minister saying “all the medical advice is that I should bring this person to Australia but I know better because, you know, the vibe” would look too silly for words.*

    *Yes, I know, Coalition government…

  7. “I want to be the first human composted in Australia! It’s on my Bucket List!”

    me too! put me through a shredder and mix me with mulch.

    you can go first if you like though…… I’m hoping to go sometime after 2060.

  8. C@tmomma @ #1148 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:17 pm

    This is what I said they should do:

    By saying Labor supports ministerial discretion, Mr Neumann has indicated the party will no longer back the bill in its current form – despite voting for it last year in the Senate – and will seek amendments.

    My understanding of the bill is that it allows ministerial discretion on national security grounds. National security grounds, I think, are not defined precisely. If that is the case, the bill may not need amendment.

    Neumann’s wording is not significantly different from what Labor has been saying all along.

    Let’s wait and see what transpires rather than jump with alarm at everything written by coalition aligned or coalition primed journalists.

    The coalition are trying to unsettle the situation to put pressure on Labor in the lead up to the vote – it’s the good old divide and conquer strategy.

  9. …but I think it’s highly unlikely that the ALP will budge.

    We’ve had this kind of speculation before when a contentious bill was coming up – Labor did what Labor had said it was going to do all along. But of course that’s not news.

  10. zoomster @ #1172 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:26 pm

    I’d be unfussed if Labor seeks an amendment which saw the medical board’s decision go back to the Minister and the Minister have to explain if he diverges from this.

    It would answer the government’s criticism and have the same end results – a Minister saying “all the medical advice is that I should bring this person to Australia but I know better because, you know, the vibe” would look too silly for words.*

    *Yes, I know, Coalition government…

    Pretty much what happens now anyway.

  11. Shorten will be damned if he does and damned if he don’t on medical evacuations. Schomo knows anything that puts the BANKS fiasco off the front pages for a few days is a gift from the political gods. Smart operator but totally deplorable the member for Cook.

  12. zoomster @ #1175 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    …but I think it’s highly unlikely that the ALP will budge.

    We’ve had this kind of speculation before when a contentious bill was coming up – Labor did what Labor had said it was going to do all along. But of course that’s not news.

    I hope you are right Zoomster, because if Labor does backtrack then I think each of you who abuse peg and Naths and Rex for saying same same will have lost at least one plank of your armour. Lose 5 planks and you will need to humbly apologise

  13. I am beginning to see Labor snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. I am probably being a bit paranoid but I am starting to worry.

  14. That video of Hunt at the nursing home. I can remember attending the launch of some govt-initiated children’s health program by Tony Abbott who was Health Minister at the time. A suitable assembly of small children had been rounded up as props for the announcement, after which there was to be a morning tea.

    The assembled media focused on one small child and asked him something, but his response had everyone laughing: “I don’t care. When can we eat? I’m hungry!”

  15. I suspect that Labor will propose an amendment to the Phelps bill that goes half way towards the government position.
    And it will get defeated.

  16. dtt

    ‘..you are only very, very negative.’

    Whereas nath, peg (I’m allowed to call her that again, apparently) and Rex are all sweetness and positivity.

  17. Quoting from the article by David Wroe in The Age, “Immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann said Labor wanted the immigration minister – rather than doctors – to have the final say on who is flown to Australia for treatment, meaning the crossbench-driven bill now before Parliament would need significant change.

    Does anyone know when Neumann said this, and in what circumstance? I ask because I thought I read this same reporting a couple of days ago. Could this be merely a “story” to get ready for a noisy week.

  18. DaretoTread @ #1178 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:41 pm

    zoomster @ #1180 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    dtt

    Fortunately I’ve never done that.

    Fair enough Zoomster, you are only very, very negative,but I will agree you are not one who is particularly abusive to the Greens on the site. The other 50 of you, you know who I mean

    More one-sided commentary. Have you read some of the things nath has written!?! He identifies as a Green you know!?!

  19. dtt

    No, the term is ‘plate in your armour’. There is no such thing as ‘plank in your armour’. I got confused, so I checked — all you get it some reference to a guy with the surname Plank having something to do with armour.

    ‘Plate in your armour’ — apples.

  20. Afternoon all. Apologies if others have discussed this earlier but I only just caught up with it. Chris Pyne says the government will not deal with the RC until after the election!! Sure they will Chris, sure they will. There is no plan stated of what will be done, no timetable, and no commitments. But it will all happen after the election!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/10/banking-reform-wont-happen-until-after-the-election-christopher-pyne-says

    Do they really think just stalling will satisfy the public? The RC recommendations were not even very draconian. Why do they need 40 pieces of legislation? To go with their 40 pieces of silver? Who has gotten at them already, the banks or the mortgage brokers? I am amazed if they think they can get away with this. And what about the compensation for victims of the financial crimes? Nothing for months? Nor the criminal prosecution recommendations? Will they be delayed too? Will they ever happen if the Cabinet full of ex bankers is re-elected? This stinks.

  21. C@tmomma @ #1194 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:44 pm

    DaretoTread @ #1178 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:41 pm

    zoomster @ #1180 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    dtt

    Fortunately I’ve never done that.

    Fair enough Zoomster, you are only very, very negative,but I will agree you are not one who is particularly abusive to the Greens on the site. The other 50 of you, you know who I mean

    More one-sided commentary. Have you read some of the things nath has written!?! He identifies as a Green you know!?!

    Irrelevant Cat. I was ONLY referring to those who carry on like a pork chop when peg and some others say labor/liberal same same. You ARE one of those. So I give you five chances. If labor sides with e coalition on 5 key areas of policy you will need to agree that Peg is right and YOU are wRONg. But hey 4 more lives before a humble apology is expected. To keep it clear, we will JUST include stuff that is part of the election campaign.

  22. Late Riser:

    We will know tomorrow after the opposition leader has been briefed. I suspect BK might be right, but until then it’s just speculation.

  23. Tim Storer:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-set-to-back-down-in-stand-off-over-refugee-medical-bill-20190210-p50wvb.html

    Kerryn Phelps, the independent MP for the Sydney seat Wentworth, said it would be “enormously disappointing” if the opposition backed down, while independent senator Tim Storer said voters might wonder what Labor stood for.

    “If Labor does back down now, voters may wonder about the value of its commitments more generally and wonder whether what Labor says before the election is what it would actually do if it comes to power,” Senator Storer said.

  24. So, what the government is saying is that they can’t defend the nation against a few hundred sick people they have in their care. How incompetent! Their border security must be a tenuous arrangment if the entire country is imperiled by a few medical practitioners doing what we’ve trained them to do. How on earth would they cope if we were actually threatened?

  25. DaretoTread @ #1188 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1194 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:44 pm

    DaretoTread @ #1178 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:41 pm

    zoomster @ #1180 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    dtt

    Fortunately I’ve never done that.

    Fair enough Zoomster, you are only very, very negative,but I will agree you are not one who is particularly abusive to the Greens on the site. The other 50 of you, you know who I mean

    More one-sided commentary. Have you read some of the things nath has written!?! He identifies as a Green you know!?!

    Irrelevant Cat. I was ONLY referring to those who carry on like a pork chop when peg and some others say labor/liberal same same. You ARE one of those. So I give you five chances. If labor sides with e coalition on 5 key areas of policy you will need to agree that Peg is right and YOU are wRONg. But hey 4 more lives before a humble apology is expected. To keep it clear, we will JUST include stuff that is part of the election campaign.

    dtt, don’t be so bleeding simplistic. You are not a simpleton, so why give people cause to call you one!?!

    Hundreds of pieces of legislation go through the parliament each term, and if Labor agrees with the Coalition on FIVE of them, the carping Greens have your permission to go, ‘Lib-Lab Same-Same’!?!

    You set a very low bar for some. But it is The Greens, a Mickey Mouse party if ever there was one in Australia, I suppose.

  26. …and very quickly —

    I wasn’t having a go at you, dtt – I just started thinking that an armour made of planks would be silly, but I did think you had the saying right, so I was looking to see how it originated.

  27. Socrates says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 6:46 pm/2019/feb/10/banking-reform-wont-happen-until-after-the-election-christopher-pyne-says

    Do they really think just stalling will satisfy the public? The RC recommendations were not even very draconian. Why do they need 40 pieces of legislation? To go with their 40 pieces of silver? Who has gotten at them already, the banks or the mortgage brokers? I am amazed if they think they can get away with this. And what about the compensation for victims of the financial crimes? Nothing for months? Nor the criminal prosecution recommendations? Will they be delayed too? Will they ever happen if the Cabinet full of ex bankers is re-elected? This stinks.

    Amen- Worse, the Reserve Bank dude intimated its a good idea for the tax payer to cop the bill for the long grass compensation anyone MIGHT get someday after Schomo tells the truth about something for once, ie never. I would have thought just maybe the banks should pay that compo bill. Oh no u cant do that cause the banks would “pass the cost on their customers”. as if they have never done that before. Yeah it stinks.

  28. And if you are just setting the parameters as that which occurs during the election campaign, that is just as silly, dtt. It’s not a game. Try looking at the substance instead of simply the numbers.

  29. Gecko @ #1192 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:52 pm

    So, what the government is saying is that they can’t defend the nation against a few hundred sick people they have in their care. How incompetent! Their border security must be a tenuous arrangment if the entire country is imperiled by a few medical practitioners doing what we’ve trained them to do. How on earth would they cope if we were actually threatened?

    I think PvO put it best when he pointed out that Australia has actual criminals in actual jails across the country who routinely get taken out of jail for medical treatment, sometimes requiring stays in hospitals.

    Yet authorities manage to achieve this without compromising community safety, while retaining these people under proper security. Why does the govt think the same measures cannot be applied to asylum seekers?

  30. Shorten will be damned if he does and damned if he don’t on medical evacuations.

    Yep, probably. So… all the more reason to just do what’s right, surely?

  31. It’s quite easy to understand.

    When the Greens vote with the Coalition they’re siding with the Coalition.

    But when Labor vote with the Coalition they’re not siding with the Coalition.

    Glad that’s settled.

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