BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. Bob Carr is also famous for another highlight, getting Alan Jones to approve his choice of Police Minister has to be a standout as far as the Westminster system goes. 🙂

  2. The unacknowledged legislators of the emerald city are the radio shock-jocks, the ones not even a cash for comments scandal could bring down.

    If you ever doubted it look at what New South Wales Premier, Bob Carr, had to do to get himself a new police minister today.

    Last week the minister-in-waiting, Michael Costa, paid a call at the court of Alan Jones, the 2UE breakfast presenter who’s ruled the Sydney morning airwaves for years and whose scorn no politician dares attract.

    Jones, along with two regular police critics on his show, former Cabramatta Detective Tim Priest and Sydney academic Richard Basham gave Costa a grilling.

    Then the Jones seal of approval.
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s422372.htm

  3. Antony Green
    ‏@AntonyGreenABC
    4h4 hours ago

    The only reason to hold the election later than 11 or 18 May would be for the government’s convenience, not because the AEC want to.

  4. lizzie @ #1111 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:18 pm

    Antony Green
    ‏@AntonyGreenABC
    4h4 hours ago

    The only reason to hold the election later than 11 or 18 May would be for the government’s convenience, not because the AEC want to.

    I imagine, now that he has gotten the job he always wanted, or God predestined for him, or whatever, Scott Morrison would be happy to not hold the election at all!

  5. Re Gilmore 3 way contest, 4 way if you count the ‘boned’ Liberal running as an independent, you would think the conservatives would leak preferences more than usual given the shenanigans in the seat.

  6. It’s beginning to feel like a election. Last week I reported on the sandwich board that appeared on the roadside near me, and mysteriously vanished without a trace, bearing the grinning face of the new Liberal candidate for the federal electorate of Ryan.

    This week our letterboxes contained two missives from the Brisbane City Council (BCC). One was the regular letter from the Lord Mayor (Liberal National Party) telling me what a great job he is doing. (BCC branding incidentally is identical to LNP branding in colour and style.) The second was a separate unashamed four page full colour, with BCC stripes, promotion of the aforementioned grinning face, also telling me what a great job he has done for me.

    And if that wasn’t enough, two additional Liberal National Party flyers were included, with the unforgettable words “Protecting our lifestyle” plastered on yet another four page promotional of the grinner, and the words “Sorry I missed you” on the other, and more grinning.

    Yuk.

  7. What drives Dutton?
    He is apparently already a multi-millionaire.
    Not religious, doesn’t want to save the world.
    Not keen on anyone of colour; despises Aboriginal people.
    Hates Labor and anything that smacks of compassion or tolerance.

    Love of power? For its own sake?

  8. Another view. 🙂

    Michael J. Biercuk
    ‏@MJBiercuk
    6h6 hours ago

    Dear #retirees concerned about loss of refundable #FrankingCredits. Pls remember those of you wealthy enough to have large #dividend yielding #SMSF portfolios to protect are contributing to restriction on $ available for #research into the diseases you may die from.

  9. C@tmomma @ #1109 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1107 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Tom:

    I am hoping Dutton is among many coalition MPs who lose their seats. Abbott being beaten would be icing on the cake.

    Peter Dutton is the epitome of the hard as nails politician. I think we need less of his type and more of the female type, or men prepared to show a softer side. 🙂

    Like lizzie, I’m wondering what motivates him to want to hang around in parliament, even if it’s in opposition. It must be his leadership ambition.

  10. lizzie says: Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 5:23 pm

    What drives Dutton?

    Not keen on anyone of colour; despises Aboriginal people.

    **************************************************

    The Dutton Character Assessment Test :

  11. Confessions says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 5:14 pm

    Wouldn’t the 3-way contest in Gilmore advantage the Labor candidate?

    ABC election analyst Antony Green doubted Ms Hodgkinson’s prospects and argued while she provided an alternative to Labor, the Nationals and their new candidate had little connection to Gilmore.
    “I don’t think [her] nominating has much impact on the results. She’ll probably just take votes off the Liberal party and they’ll probably go back as preferences.”

    It might in fact be a problem for Labor if ticked off Liberal voters see the National candidate as a palatable alternative to let the LIBS know they’re not happy Jan but not give their vote to ‘the real enemy’ [Labor/Greens]. She [the NATS] candidate is not a local in a traditionally Liberal seat.

    I think the dumped Liberal candidate standing as an Independent will drag enough of the PV away from Schomo’s captain’s pick to put LABOR within reach IF LABOR gets a 2-3 % PV boost and the women’s issue bites hard enough in Gilmore. On the other hand, 61.2 % of the people in Gilmore are over 50 so the ‘cash refunds’ franking credits thing will put some off giving Labor that necessary PV boost.

  12. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 5:07 pm
    Yep Sprocket. Banks and Insurance have been all but mandated for anyone who wants to survive in a western democracy.

    Any dealing with the govt must be via a bank account, and insurance companies piggy-back off that by insuring against risk.

    And because anything that involves risk (from living, to driving a car to owning a house, to getting sick) the scales have been tipped towards insuring against it.
    ——————————
    There is nothing wrong with the principle behind insurance. A group of people agree to all contribute an amount of money to a fund and if one or more of them suffers an injury they are compensated from the fund. The problem arises when a third party arranges the system so that they can profit from it. As I have said before, the for profit sector should not be allowed to operate in some parts of the economy.
    It is not that I am against profit making enterprises. But there are some things that should not be exploited for profit.

  13. Confessions @ #1106 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Tom:

    I am hoping Dutton is among many coalition MPs who lose their seats. Abbott being beaten would be icing on the cake.

    Yep, I’m a little torn on that, knowing the ongoing damage he would cause from within. But I guess we do need a viable opposition to keep the ALP honest. I just hope that the Howard conservatives are totally routed and the COALition is cleaned of them. I would however be glad to see the Nats gone completely as I would the other Coalition partner – the Greens. I had a lot of Time for Bob Brown – a very smart man. But the the current crop are hopeless.

  14. EB:

    Thanks for Antony Green’s remarks. I can see both Lib and Nat candidates running very hard on the franking credits stuff given the age profile of the electorate.

  15. C@tmomma, when I first read that slogan “Protecting your lifestyle” the immediate words out of my mouth, and said very loudly for the neighbours if any were listening, were “Protecting your lifestyle? What a greedy selfish bastard!”

  16. Confessions @ #1138 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    EB:

    Thanks for Antony Green’s remarks. I can see both Lib and Nat candidates running very hard on the franking credits stuff given the age profile of the electorate.

    Indeed.

    Winnable seats for Labor like this one need a good communicator like Chalmers to do a town hall/bowls club/RSL tour of the seat.

  17. I would however be glad to see the Nats gone completely as I would the other Coalition partner – the Greens. I had a lot of Time for Bob Brown – a very smart man. But the the current crop are hopeless.

    The Nationals do SFA for rural and regional communities and I can’t imagine farmers would rue their disappearance from state and federal parliaments.

    As for the Greens, I think the party is largely irrelevant now. That’s a shame for those voters who want a strong environmental voice in parliament, but truth be told the antics, stunts and poor leadership over the last 5 years or so have led the party to this point.

  18. C’mon Scotty, even GladysB is getting on the renewable bandwagon..

    “By Garry Maddox
    February 10, 2019 — 4.55pm

    A day after the NSW opposition announced a rebate to support households installing rooftop solar power, the Berejiklian government has countered with a scheme offering no-interest loans for solar energy and battery storage systems.

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian, Treasurer Dominic Perrottet and Energy Minister Don Harwin travelled to the Gaudry family home in Casula, in south-west Sydney on Sunday, to make a bid for voters worried about high power bills at the state election next month.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-announces-no-interest-loan-scheme-to-boost-solar-power-20190210-p50wu0.html

  19. Agree Peter S – but you have the kick-back which is one of the evils of insurance. I am Treasurer of our Strata Scheme and the strata management company gets a 10% kickback on our insurance.

  20. Confessions @ #1132 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:57 pm

    I would however be glad to see the Nats gone completely as I would the other Coalition partner – the Greens. I had a lot of Time for Bob Brown – a very smart man. But the the current crop are hopeless.

    The Nationals do SFA for rural and regional communities and I can’t imagine farmers would rue their disappearance from state and federal parliaments.

    As for the Greens, I think the party is largely irrelevant now. That’s a shame for those voters who want a strong environmental voice in parliament, but truth be told the antics, stunts and poor leadership over the last 5 years or so have led the party to this point.

    During the Howard years, the only politician that could read him (JWH) like a book was Bob Brown. I despaired of Beazley, he had no idea. I think that the Greens siding with the COALition a few too many times has rightly tarnished them as an ‘independent’ party. They are to the Libs the same as they accuse the ALP – same same. They are ruled by a volatile mix of right wingers and marxists, not a happy mix. I do hope that many of their defectors will become part of the ALP and affect some change from within.

  21. Confessions @ #1144 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:57 pm

    I would however be glad to see the Nats gone completely as I would the other Coalition partner – the Greens. I had a lot of Time for Bob Brown – a very smart man. But the the current crop are hopeless.

    The Nationals do SFA for rural and regional communities and I can’t imagine farmers would rue their disappearance from state and federal parliaments.

    As for the Greens, I think the party is largely irrelevant now. That’s a shame for those voters who want a strong environmental voice in parliament, but truth be told the antics, stunts and poor leadership over the last 5 years or so have led the party to this point.

    If the Greens get the balance of power in the senate they’re hardly irrelevant.

  22. As much as I admire Bob Car’s environmental stance, one side effect was his refusal to accept that Sydney needed a lot more train lines.

  23. Corruption ”denial” in Australia’s customs service enabled crooked officers to exploit security gaps and turn a steroid importing ring into an international drug trafficking business.

    That is the key finding of Australia’s top graft investigator, Philip Moss, who also found a network of rogue officers had links to outlaw bikie gangs.

    The network was able to operate for five years because Australia’s border security agency had failed to implement basic anti-corruption measures.

    Mr Moss’ findings are contained in a report obtained by The Saturday Age and come as Home Affairs Minister Jason Clare responds publicly to a second report by Mr Moss and the Australian Federal Police that details major security gaps at Sydney International Airport.

    Mr Clare told The Saturday Age that to close these gaps, customs officers will be banned from using mobile phones in secure areas – a step aimed at preventing them from contacting criminals when they land – and will face more stringent supervision. ”The key to tackling corruption is structural and cultural reform,” Mr Clare said. ”There is a lot more to come.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/customs-officers-links-to-bikies-20130621-2ooe0.html

  24. Tom @ #1150 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    Confessions @ #1132 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:57 pm

    I would however be glad to see the Nats gone completely as I would the other Coalition partner – the Greens. I had a lot of Time for Bob Brown – a very smart man. But the the current crop are hopeless.

    The Nationals do SFA for rural and regional communities and I can’t imagine farmers would rue their disappearance from state and federal parliaments.

    As for the Greens, I think the party is largely irrelevant now. That’s a shame for those voters who want a strong environmental voice in parliament, but truth be told the antics, stunts and poor leadership over the last 5 years or so have led the party to this point.

    During the Howard years, the only politician that could read him (JWH) like a book was Bob Brown. I despaired of Beazley, he had no idea. I think that the Greens siding with the COALition a few too many times has rightly tarnished them as an ‘independent’ party. They are to the Libs the same as they accuse the ALP – same same. They are ruled by a volatile mix of right wingers and marxists, not a happy mix. I do hope that many of their defectors will become part of the ALP and affect some change from within.

    Shall we compare the number of times Labor and the Greens have sided with the Coalition ..?

  25. Labor appears set to back down over the refugee medical stand-off, inoculating itself against a potential election campaign battering over border security and handing a significant win to the Morrison government.

    Immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann said Labor wanted the immigration minister – rather than doctors – to have the final say on who is flown to Australia for treatment, meaning the crossbench-driven bill now before Parliament would need significant change.

    “Labor has always had two clear objectives: making sure sick people can get medical care and making sure the minister has final discretion over medical transfers,” he said.

    The current bill before Parliament, which has been the subject of an intensifying political struggle between the major parties, would give doctors and a separate medical advice panel established by the government the power to order the transfer of needy refugees to Australia.

    The minister would be able to overrule both groups only on national security grounds.

    By saying Labor supports ministerial discretion, Mr Neumann has indicated the party will no longer back the bill in its current form – despite voting for it last year in the Senate – and will seek amendments.

    The backdown is likely to infuriate the independent MPs behind the push to get sick refugees off Nauru and Manus Island for treatment.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-set-to-back-down-in-stand-off-over-refugee-medical-bill-20190210-p50wvb.html

  26. lizzie @ #1156 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:09 pm

    Labor appears set to back down over the refugee medical stand-off, inoculating itself against a potential election campaign battering over border security and handing a significant win to the Morrison government.

    Immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann said Labor wanted the immigration minister – rather than doctors – to have the final say on who is flown to Australia for treatment, meaning the crossbench-driven bill now before Parliament would need significant change.

    “Labor has always had two clear objectives: making sure sick people can get medical care and making sure the minister has final discretion over medical transfers,” he said.

    The current bill before Parliament, which has been the subject of an intensifying political struggle between the major parties, would give doctors and a separate medical advice panel established by the government the power to order the transfer of needy refugees to Australia.

    The minister would be able to overrule both groups only on national security grounds.

    By saying Labor supports ministerial discretion, Mr Neumann has indicated the party will no longer back the bill in its current form – despite voting for it last year in the Senate – and will seek amendments.

    The backdown is likely to infuriate the independent MPs behind the push to get sick refugees off Nauru and Manus Island for treatment.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-set-to-back-down-in-stand-off-over-refugee-medical-bill-20190210-p50wvb.html

    *sigh*

  27. I do hope that many of their defectors will become part of the ALP and affect some change from within.

    I’d prefer to see them go to the Liberals. That’s the one mainstream political party that needs help with its GHGEs abatement policies.

  28. lizzie @ #1142 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:07 pm

    Corruption ”denial” in Australia’s customs service enabled crooked officers to exploit security gaps and turn a steroid importing ring into an international drug trafficking business.

    That is the key finding of Australia’s top graft investigator, Philip Moss, who also found a network of rogue officers had links to outlaw bikie gangs.

    The network was able to operate for five years because Australia’s border security agency had failed to implement basic anti-corruption measures.

    Mr Moss’ findings are contained in a report obtained by The Saturday Age and come as Home Affairs Minister Jason Clare responds publicly to a second report by Mr Moss and the Australian Federal Police that details major security gaps at Sydney International Airport.

    Mr Clare told The Saturday Age that to close these gaps, customs officers will be banned from using mobile phones in secure areas – a step aimed at preventing them from contacting criminals when they land – and will face more stringent supervision. ”The key to tackling corruption is structural and cultural reform,” Mr Clare said. ”There is a lot more to come.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/customs-officers-links-to-bikies-20130621-2ooe0.html

    Steady on, lizzie! Labor aren’t in government yet! That article is from 2013! 😆

  29. This is what I said they should do:

    By saying Labor supports ministerial discretion, Mr Neumann has indicated the party will no longer back the bill in its current form – despite voting for it last year in the Senate – and will seek amendments.

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